Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 09, 2023

This story features PENTANET LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 5GG

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

5GG   ARX   BPT   CIP   CMM   COF   EVS (3)   FLT (2)   GOR   IAG   IGO (2)   KED   MAD (2)   MP1   NIC   OZL   PBH (2)   PLY   PNI   QBE (2)   S32   SDR (2)   STA   SUN   TPW   TRS (2)   XPN  

5GG    PENTANET LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.17

Bell Potter rates ((5GG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Bell Potter observes a flat 2Q23 trading update from Pentanet due to rollout issues around neXus. Nevertheless, revenues rose 25% and subscribers advanced 15.3% on last year.

The company secured a $5m facility from Westpac which should be sufficient for growth objectives over the balance of FY23, is the suggestion made.

Bell Potter slightly adjusts earnings forecasts by 0.2c and 0.4c for FY23 and FY24, respectively, as a result of improved cost management.

The target is lowered to 31c from 44c and the Speculative Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.145
If 5GG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.88.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.75.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.17

Jarden rates ((ARX)) as Buy (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery's December-quarter result appears to have met the broker's forecasts and management has reiterated revenue and margin guidance, expecting to reach normalised break-even by the end of the March quarter. The broker expects the company will be profitable in FY24.

The broker observes that the March quarter is off to a strong start and expects the launch and potential approval of some products; that the balance sheet is solid with no debt; and the company boasts a revenue compound annual growth rate of 35%.

EPS forecasts are shaved after the broker conservatively updates spot FX forecasts. Buy rating retained. Target price slips to $1.38 from $1.39.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.215
If ARX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1165.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 129.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.54

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Beach Energy's December-quarter production missed consensus by -6% but met Jarden's forecasts.

The big bad news was the cut in Waitsia 2P reserves after the completion of development and drilling. 

On the upside, the company finished the quarter with $9m net cash, which compares with the brokers forecasts of -$65m net debt.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to $1.85 from $1.95 to reflect the fall in Waitsia reserves and a weak start to the company's Perth Basin exploration (the first well was plugged and abandoned).

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.305
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 25.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of -7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.41

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Neutral (3) –

Centuria Industrial REIT's December-half result nosed out consensus and Jarden's forecasts by about 1.1% and management reiterated guidance.

But the broker says the company's top-line growth is likely to be stymied by higher interest costs and says while the REIT boasts a strong portfolio, it is trading at peak cycle, with asset devaluations and rent growth factored in.

The outlook for the industrial property market remains positive says the broker.

Jarden admires the company's balance sheet, noting Centuria Industrial was a net seller in the December half, posting -$215m in asset sales, reducing gearing to 31.6% from 33.2% at June 30.

Neutral rating retained. Target price inches up to $3.40 from $3.35.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting downside of -1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -71.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.38

Bell Potter rates ((CMM)) as Hold (3) –

According to Bell Potter, Capricorn Metals reported a miss on production for the December 2022 trading update and costs came in at the lower end of management guidance.

Production was impacted by a mill shutdown and a fatality. The analyst adjusts earnings forecasts by -8% and -5% for FY23 and FY24.

The target is raised to $4.35 from $4.10 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

This report was published on February 3, 2023.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.72.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.70

Moelis rates ((COF)) as Buy (1) –

Centuria Office REIT's December-half result appears to have missed Moelis's broader expectations but management reiterated FY23 funds from operations and dividend guidance. Portfolio average weighted lease expiry was steady at 42 years.

There were plenty of positives: vacancy rates fell to 3.6% from 5.3% at June but Moelis says much of that includes heads of agreement data which will be taken up over 2023, and therefore actual vacancy rates were slightly higher. Two new tenancies were secured for Docklands Melbourne.

On the downside, gearing rose to 35.6% from 33.8% and Moelis expects this to rise to 36.3% by June 30. Net tangible assets fell to $2.40 from $2.50.

Buy rating retained, the broker admiring the REIT's relative quality. Target price falls to $2.22 from $2.36 to reflect higher interest rate assumptions.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.52
If COF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -19.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVS    ENVIROSUITE LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.12

Bell Potter rates ((EVS)) as Buy (1) –

EnviroSuite reported a miss on the annual recurring revenue for the 2Q23 notes Bell Potter, although some large deals are expected to be booked in the 3Q23 according to management.

There are some minor adjustments to the broker's earnings forecasts with revenues adjusted by -2% and -3% for FY23 and FY24, with an accompanying -9% reduction in FY24 EBITDA estimates.

A Buy rating is retained and the price target is adjusted to $0.21 from $0.22.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.085
If EVS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.89.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((EVS)) as Buy (1) –

EnviroSuite's December-quarter appears to have outpaced Moelis's forecasts thanks largely to a sharp reduction in cash burn and continued growth in annual recurring revenue.

Management guided to a strong pipeline, and the broker expects improved margins given the reduction in spending.

Aviation benefited from the covid reopening and the growing adoption of carbon emission modelling, says the broker. Water and Omnis just ticked along in the quarter.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 18c from 17c.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.055
If EVS meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.17.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.35.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((EVS)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons considers 2Q results for EnviroSuite were solid and in-line with expectations. New sales orders of $3m, comprised $2m in new annual recurring revenue (ARR) and the balance was for non-recurring project sales.

Aviation was stronger than the broker's forecast, while the performance of the environmental management software product EVS Omnis was a touch weaker.

Reported ARR of $56.9m was exactly in line with the broker's 1H forecast.

The Market-weight rating and 21c target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.085
If EVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.36.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.62.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $18.61

Goldman Sachs rates ((FLT)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs highlighted Flight Centre Travel reported a 17% EBITDA beat on both consensus and its own forecast for 1H23.

The analyst notes the growth in revenues was positive, but costs continue to grow which is considered worrying, although management guided to FY23 guidance, in line with market consensus forecasts.

The broker's earnings forecasts are adjusted by 3% for FY23 and marginally downgraded in FY24. The Scott Dunn acquisition is viewed as positive but yet to be included in forecasts.

The revised target is $16.40 and the Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $18.61 Difference: minus $2.21 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.79, suggesting downside of -9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.4, implying annual growth of 194.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Flight Centre Travel's December-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced consensus forecasts by 17% and Jarden's by 10%, thanks to a strong performance from corporate, and buoyed by an uptick in Leisure in November-December. Costs also proved a beat.

Jarden considers FY23 guidance to be conservative (if prudent), implying a weaker second half than either the broker or consensus had forecast, particularly given the December-half beat. 

FY23 earnings guidance falls sharply to reflect guidance but is fairly steady thereafter.

All up, the broker upgrades Flight Centre to Buy from Overweight, to reflect the covid reopening, the company's higher return on investment capital, and the strong performance from corporate. Target price eases to $20.90 from $21.20.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $18.61 Difference: $2.29
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.79, suggesting downside of -9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 107.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.4, implying annual growth of 194.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.56

Bell Potter rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Unexpected maintenance on the Gruyere plant resulted in a 4Q22 production miss of 74koz compared to 83koz for Gold Road Resources according to Bell Potter.

Costs also fell off the back of the lower production. 

Management guided to 340koz to 370tk production for FY23 due to increasing grade and costs are expected to be higher than previous expectations.

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by -12% and -11% for FY22 and FY23, respectively.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $1.95 from $1.75.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.385
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 60.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.80

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden retains its Buy rating for stocks under its coverage in the General Insurance sector due to upside risks from stronger pricing and better weather conditions. QBE Insurance is the preferred pick.

For Insurance Australia Group the broker raises its near-term reinsurance and catastrophe costs. FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts are trimmed by -2.4% and -2%, respectively and the target falls to $5.45 from $5.65. Buy.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.65
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.13, suggesting upside of 6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 78.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 37.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 40.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $14.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((IGO)) as Neutral (3) –

1H23 EBITDA results for IGO were 3% better than Goldman Sachs' estimates and 5% ahead of consensus.

Greenbushes reported strong results as well as higher earnings from TLEA which countered the negative impact of lower nickel/corporate earnings.

The broker adjusts earnings forecasts by -4% for FY23 and -23% for FY24. The Neutral rating is retained with the target price lowered to $13.60 from $14.10.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $14.73 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.33, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 193.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.7, implying annual growth of 375.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.5, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Overweight (2) –

IGO's FY23 December-half result beat Jarden's lithium production and earnings forecasts, but sharply missed consensus' nickel production and net-profit after tax forecasts (nickel outages at Wuxi and a tax miscalculation came home to roost).

But Jarden says the December-quarter result did highlight the quality of IGO's Greenbushes holding, where economies of scale and synergies with the nickel business have the potential to combat cost inflation.

Overweight weighting retained, the broker reiterating its view that lithium prices are unsustainable. Target price rises to $17.45 from $16.55 on valuation. EPS and dividend forecasts also rise sharply.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $14.73 Difference: $2.72
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.33, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 205.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.7, implying annual growth of 375.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 219.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.5, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KED    KEYPATH EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL INC

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.57

Shaw and Partners rates ((KED)) as Buy (1) –

According to Shaw and Partners, Keypath Education International's second quarter report has highlighted substantial improvement in free cash flow, with more than $11m generated in the quarter, alongside good visibility over the company's outlook and sufficient funding to support organic growth until reaching a cashflow breakeven. 

The broker points out Keypath Education International added two partners and twelve programs over the second quarter across North America and Asia Pacific, with thirty programs signed from future vintages. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.50 are retained.

This report was published on January 31, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $1.925
If KED meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 335% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.10.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.43.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $4.72

Moelis rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Mader Group's December-quarter revenue outpaced Moelis's forecasts by 6.3%, thanks to a strong performance from the higher margin North American division (up 194%).

Customers, regions and margins increased, as did net debt (to $50.9m from $34.2m at September 30), well above Moelis's forecasts.

Guidance was retained and the broker considers this to be conservative given management advised it was in a good position heading into the June half, but generally leaves EPS forecast steady.

Buy rating retained, the broker expecting continued strong execution in North America. Target price rises to $5 from $4.05.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.28
If MAD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.46.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.58.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Mader Group's December-quarter result outpaced Shaw and Partners' forecasts, thanks to a strong North American performance, posting strong profit and margins.

The broker admires management's track record and pace since the covid reopening and expects the company to post an EPS compound annual growth rate of greater than 25% in the near term.

EPS forecasts are steady, the broker awaiting the December-half result.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises 24% to $5.05 from $4.09.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: $0.33
If MAD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.37.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.37.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $6.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

The 2Q23 trading update from Megaport revealed a number of macro-related operational headwinds.

The result met the broker's forecast, however the decline in MCR net adds of -4% and -1% for MVE (noted as the first declines in history) show the delay in enterprise customer decisions alongside confirmation of "proof of concept".

Megaport has responded with a further -$8m-$10m in cost cutting with a higher reduction in employees, leading to an upgrade in the broker's FY23 EBITDA forecast of 35% and 4% by FY25.

The 1H23 results are due on February 9 and Goldman Sachs will be looking for more detailed analysis of the company's performance.

The target is lowered to $8.10 from $9.50 and the Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: $1.91
If MP1 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.14, suggesting upside of 63.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 56.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 309.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC    NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $1.10

Bell Potter rates ((NIC)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter considers the 4Q22 trading update from Nickel Industries with production exceeding the analyst's expectations at 23,072t versus the 21,911t forecast. Attributable nickel also beat and costs were in line.

Following the strategic agreements to purchase a 10% stake in the Huayue Nickel Cobalt project and a further 10% of the Oracle Nickel project, the company will underpin increased exposure to the nickel battery sector.

Post the update, Bell Potter lifts earnings forecasts by 10% for FY22 and 76% for FY23.

Buy rating retained, the target raised to $1.85 from $1.71 with the analyst upbeat about the growth outlook and the "appealing" valuation.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.745
If NIC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.33 cents and EPS of 11.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.99 cents and EPS of 37.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.98.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL    OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $27.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((OZL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs assesses that OZ Minerals reported better than expected copper and gold production, alongside lower costs for the 4Q22 trading update.

Conversely management provided more downbeat guidance for FY23 on the back of flat production and higher costs with capital expenditure of $1.35bn – $1.56bn compared to Goldman Sachs' $1.13bn forecast.

The broker's earnings estimates are raised 8% for FY22 and lowered -16% for FY23.

A Neutral rating is retained and the target is adjusted to $21.40 from $23.70.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $21.40 Current Price is $27.92 Difference: minus $6.52 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.61, suggesting downside of -1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.4, implying annual growth of -59.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.90 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.7, implying annual growth of 37.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.64

Goldman Sachs rates ((PBH)) as Neutral (3) –

PointsBet Holdings' 2Q23 trading update broadly met Goldman Sachs' expectations.

The results were mixed but cash flow came in above expectations by $6m, while higher cash on hand was at the upper end of estimates at $387m.

On balance the US is trading better, although margins remain under pressure and Australia is advancing but also disappointing on margins, comments the broker.

A Neutral rating and $2.00 target price.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.365
If PBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.78.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.73.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Buy (1) –

PointsBet Holdings's December-quarter appears to have pleased Jarden, the company batting off heavy competition to increase turnover, net win and active clients.

The gross win rate fell a touch shy of Jarden's forecasts but the broker expects an uptick in the June half and FY24.

Despite forecast strength in Australia and the United States, and market-share growth, the broker expects this will come at the expense of revenue given the stiffness of competition as players attempt to gain scale in fledgling and potentially lucrative markets.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls -39% to $2.23 from $3.62 to reflect deep cuts to earnings forecasts.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $2.23 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.595
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 87.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.87.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 69.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.34.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLY    PLAYSIDE STUDIOS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.47

Shaw and Partners rates ((PLY)) as Buy (1) –

Playside Studios's December-quarter result appears to have disappointed Shaw and Partners on cash burn, but outpaced on work-for-hire revenue, which rose 200%.

Management has decided not to proceed with some original IP titles in the pre-production phase so as to divert resources to other areas for now, but retains its ambition for creating original titles, advises the broker, who expects this to drag on March-quarter revenue.

Shaw and Partners cuts FY23 revenue forecasts -7% to $2.3m and expects a -$2m non-cash write-down in the December-half results.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 80c from 90c.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.325
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 43.18.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.78.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.13

Wilsons rates ((PNI)) as Overweight (1) –

First half profit for Pinnacle Investment Management was a -15.5% miss versus Wilsons estimate as margins from affiliates softened.

At the Core and Affiliate level, the analyst considers underlying revenues were commendable and ongoing investment by the company bodes well for the medium-term.

While the target falls to $12.10 from $12.90 on lower near-term margin forecasts for FY23 and FY24, the broker maintains its Overweight rating on an attractive medium-term outlook.

While no guidance was given, management sees a solid pipeline across its affiliate base from both domestic and international clients.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.13 Difference: $1.97
If PNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting downside of -1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.20 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of -10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.10 cents and EPS of 43.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 17.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $13.41

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs takes a favourable read for QBE Insurance's North American business from 4Q results for overseas peer Chubb.

The analyst considers a focus on rate and pricing by Chubb ahead of cost loss inflation is considered a positive for underwriting margins/the combined operating ratio (COR).

Management at Chubb expects a good year ahead for both growth and earnings.

The broker maintains its Buy rating and $16.67 target.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $16.67 Current Price is $13.41 Difference: $3.26
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.08 cents and EPS of 64.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 73.59 cents and EPS of 154.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.5, implying annual growth of 122.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden retains its Buy rating for stocks under its coverage in the General Insurance sector due to upside risks from stronger pricing and better weather conditions. QBE Insurance is the preferred pick.

Near-term reinsurance and catastrophe cost forecasts rise for QBE Insurance. The FY23 EPS forecast is trimmed by -1% and the target falls to $17.75 from $18.00. Buy.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $13.41 Difference: $4.34
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.12, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 66.38 cents and EPS of 71.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 109.67 cents and EPS of 154.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.5, implying annual growth of 122.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $4.74

Goldman Sachs rates ((S32)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs increases its FY23 EPS forecast by 5% following South32's 1H production report back on January 23, though retains its $4.80 target and Neutral rating.

The adjustments to forecasts are many and varied (and none material), given the company produces bauxite, alumina, aluminium, copper, silver, lead, zinc, nickel, metallurgical coal, copper and manganese across nine countries.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 47.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 96.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $3.98

Goldman Sachs rates ((SDR)) as Neutral (3) –

SiteMinder reported a "solid" 2Q23 result according to Goldman Sachs with revenues slightly above expectations and an improvement in free cashflow, which is estimated as a percentage of sales to have met management's 1H23 guidance.

Average revenue per user rose 6% over the period, boosting subscription revenue growth, while annual recurring revenue reported a slowing in the deceleration rate to 28% from 31% and a reduction in headcount was started.

Neutral rating and $4.20 target are unchanged with the analyst looking for more details at the February 22 1H23 results announcement.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: $0.22
If SDR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 31.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2653.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3980.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SDR)) as Buy (1) –

SiteMinder's December-quarter revenue outpaced consensus' and Jarden's forecasts thanks to a big beat on transaction revenue. Properties proved a slight miss.

Management advised it is targeting a swifter pathway to becoming cash-flow neutral given the unforgiving capital environment.

The broker estimates cost reductions of -6% would allow the company to hit cashflow breakeven by December (which was the previous guidance), so keeps its estimates steady.

Should an earlier date be achieved, the broker is reminded of Xero's ((XRO)) performance in the same situation. Buy rating and $3.70 target price retained, Jarden considering the valuation "compelling".

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If SDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 31.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STA    STRANDLINE RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.43

Shaw and Partners rates ((STA)) as Buy (1) –

Strandline Resources's December-quarter result appears to have met Shaw and Partners's forecasts.

Describing it as a transformational quarter, the broker observes the company shipped its first product (and made another shipment this year) and logged its first revenue.

The broker says the mineral sands market is tight, and this should allay fears of rising energy costs and China lockdowns.

The company closed the year with $66.7m in cash, with sufficient capital to finalise the Coburn commissioning, and the broker says Strandline is assessing expansion options.

Buy recommendation and 80c target price retained.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.365
If STA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $13.04

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden retains its Buy rating for stocks under its coverage in the General Insurance sector due to upside risks from stronger pricing and better weather conditions. QBE Insurance is the preferred pick.

For Suncorp Group the broker raises its near-term reinsurance and catastrophe costs. FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts are trimmed by -1.4% and -0.7%, respectively.

The Buy rating and $13.50 target are retained.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $13.04 Difference: $0.46
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.09, suggesting upside of 8.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 98.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of 74.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.70 cents and EPS of 93.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.6, implying annual growth of 5.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $5.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple & Webster is added to the Goldman Sachs conviction list and the broker considers the company can generate 22% annual EBITDA growth over the next 10-years from increased market share and online presence.

The analyst is looking to the February 23 1H23 results for further confirmation of a steadying of ship for earnings and the outlook.

The Buy rating is maintained, the target is $7.60.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $2.26
If TPW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 84.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRS    REJECT SHOP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $4.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((TRS)) as Neutral (3) –

After reviewing 1H results for the Reject Shop, Goldman Sachs upgrades its FY23 earnings (EBIT) forecast by 92% to reflects a stronger-than-expected margin recovery (likely due to management's cost-out strategy). 

Sales momentum for the half and the first four weeks of the 2H was ahead of the analysts's forecasts.

The broker sees potential for gross margin upside over the medium term given a positive mix shift, though concerns arise for the shorter term as the impact from lower freight costs will lag. Also, a lower margin for consumables is expected, compared to general merchandise.

The Neutral rating is retained, while the target rises by 5% to $5.30.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $1.25
If TRS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 18.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 46.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TRS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden assesses the Reject Shop's 1H trading update was strong. Sales rose by 3.5% year-on-year and management's earnings (EBIT) guidance exceeded prior forecasts from the analyst and consensus by 6% and 12%, respectively.

The broker gains confidence in the company's strategy on evidence the turnaround is progressing. It's believed revenue growth will be key to a share price re-rating, given substantial operating leverage.

However, any rerate is unlikely in the near-term, as the company announced its CEO is leaving after only six months, which raises concerns for the analyst.

The Buy rating and $8.60 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 2, 2023.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $4.55
If TRS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 18.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 53.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 46.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XPN    XPON TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.13

Shaw and Partners rates ((XPN)) as Buy (1) –

XPON Technologies' December-quarter annual recurring revenue missed Shaw and Partners forecasts but otherwise, the result appears to have been in line.

The broker considers underlying trends to be solid, expecting the company to reach cash-flow breakeven in FY24. Management reiterated full-year guidance.

Buy rating retained, the broker observing the company is posting a compound annual growth rate of 40% and Shaw and Partners appreciates XPON's exposure to major trends such as privacy and first customer data.

Target price eases to 34c from 38c to reflect lower forecast cash flows.

This report was published on February 1, 2023.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.21
If XPN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 162% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.65.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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