Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 16, 2023

This story features APPEN LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AKE   APX (2)   BLU   CBA   CGS   CSR (2)   EXP   FSG   GNC   IPH   MCP   MYX   NXT   RBL (2)   SUN (2)   THL (2)   XRO  

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $14.85

Jarden rates ((AKE)) as Buy (1) –

Allkem and Livent have proposed a scrip merger with a primary listing on the NYSE and secondary listing on ASX. If approved, Allkem shareholders will emerge with 56% of the new company.

Jarden calculates shareholders are receiving a 15% premium compared with the last closing price, reflecting the company's superior asset base.

Allkem shareholders would also have exposure to a larger supplier of a more diversified suite of lithium chemicals, if the transaction reaches financial close. Overweight rating maintained. Target is $14.75.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $14.85 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AKE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.20, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.1, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 100.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.0, implying annual growth of 30.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $2.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APX)) as Hold (3) –

The trading update from Appen was "grimmer" than Canaccord Genuity anticipated. Revenue trends are still deteriorating, although at a slower rate.

The company has undertaken a radical cost reduction program to reduce cash costs by -30% by the end of FY23. AI remains a key focus but the complexity of this area makes it hard for the broker to determine the exact role for Appen.

Canaccord Genuity believes a priority in the upcoming technology briefing should be to provide tangible evidence of where the company can contribute to developments.

Hold rating maintained with a steady target of $2.40.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.1
If APX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting downside of -21.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -34.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((APX)) as Underweight (5) –

Wilsons observes the collective expenditure of Appen's top five customers has contributed to its success but also driven the negative impact on current revenues.

The revenue base has deteriorated over the last two years and the company has announced a -$36m annualised cost saving program. Improving operating leverage and returning to consistent growth remain the catalysts, the broker asserts.

Wilsons acknowledges the efforts being made to reduce costs but awaits a return to growth, given a rapidly changing AI landscape. Underweight maintained. Target is reduced to $1.90 from $2.11.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting downside of -21.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 45.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -34.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLU    BLUE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.03

Petra Capital rates ((BLU)) as Buy (1) –

Blue Energy has achieved a 40% improvement in the last two weeks in terms of the gas flow in its pilot production testing program in the North Bowen Basin. Petra Capital would expect gas rates to continue to accelerate, consistent with testing from regional peer Comet Ridge ((COI)).

There is also a possible low-cost tolling route for future gas development at the adjacent Moranbah project.  The broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $0.29 from $0.36

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.26
If BLU meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 867% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $98.50

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Underweight (4) –

CommBank's 3Q result is tracking broadly in line with consensus forecasts for the 2H, observes Jarden.

The broker makes only minor changes to its EPS forecasts as lower margins were partially offset by higher markets income and a slightly better performance on costs.

Management didn't disclose a 3Q net interest margin (NIM), but the analyst notes net interest income fell by -2% quarter-on-quarter, which suggests the core margin declined by -2-3bps in the quarter.

The Neutral rating and $98 target are unchanged.

This report was published on May 10, 2023.

Target price is $98.00 Current Price is $98.50 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.68, suggesting downside of -8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 443.00 cents and EPS of 590.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 595.5, implying annual growth of -4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 433.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 443.00 cents and EPS of 562.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 572.9, implying annual growth of -3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 440.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.64

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CGS)) as Buy (1) –

Cogstate has downgraded its FY23 outlook and commenced a cost reduction program. Canaccord Genuity was disappointed with the downgrade, especially as FY23 revenue is now expected to be -9-12% below FY22, and this is the third downgrade in the current financial year.

The broker acknowledges the delays to revenue are well outside the company's control, and a result of recruitment delays for clinical trials while, in some cases, big pharma has been slow to make decisions.

Over time the broker remains confident the issues will be resolved. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.10 from $2.20.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.46
If CGS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 328.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.67.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR    CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSR)) as Neutral (3) –

CSR's FY23 earnings (EBIT) were an 11% beat compared to the forecast by Goldman Sachs driven by the core Building Products
division, due to better 2H price momentum than anticipated.

The analyst feels pricing accelerated into the 2H despite a deteriorating macro/customer backdrop. Despite this environment, the company is expected to benefit from an elevated pipeline of detached homes under construction.

Management stated this pipeline should sustain demand for over six months.

Recent margin trajectory suggests to Goldman Sachs CSR  is well placed to match any ongoing cost inflation with price realisation.

The broker's target increases by 10% to $5.95. Neutral.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.62
If CSR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -19.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CSR)) as Overweight (2) –

FY23 results were slightly better than Jarden estimated. Building products represented 78% of total EBIT with property and aluminium 20% and 2%, respectively.

As building product conditions deteriorate, the broker would not rule out modest bolt-on acquisitions in this space, and a more active buyback program.

Jarden assumes a resilient first half in FY24 for CSR, before the work backlog recedes and margins soften. Overweight maintained. Target rises to $5.74 from $5.50.

This report was published on May 10, 2023.

Target price is $5.74 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.41
If CSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.49, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 39.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of -19.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.10 cents and EPS of 40.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EXP    EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EXP)) as Buy (1) –

Experience Co included some elements in its trading update that pleased Canaccord Genuity. Skydiving volumes continue to recover and this business is critical to expectations for a rebound into FY24/25.

April trading was also ahead and international visits are starting to contribute to the recovery. The broker suspects the December 2023 quarter is likely to provide the first indications of how normal international visits are flowing through to the company's businesses.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.34 from $0.36.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.05
If EXP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSG    FIELD SOLUTIONS HOLDINGS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((FSG)) as Buy (1) –

Field Solutions has made progress on the RCP tower roll-out, with estimated completion of 127 towers by the end of Q324.

Discussions are ongoing with tier-1 lenders for working capital, as the business seeks a flexible funding arrangement to support asset growth for the longer term.

The retracement in the share price recently has, Petra Capital asserts, been based on investor concerns around the balance sheet. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.27 from $0.33.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.221
If FSG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 451% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $8.08

Wilsons rates ((GNC)) as Market Weight (3) –

GrainCorp has upgraded FY23 earnings guidance, reflecting further expansion in margins and slightly higher volumes. Wilsons extends the assumptions for margin into FY24 which drives significant upgrades to estimates.

The broker considers the current share price fair value as, on the one hand, robust earnings will be underpinned by a significant volume of grain in the system over the next 18 months, yet earnings are expected to decline materially over the forecast period.

The Market Weight rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.44 from $6.98.

This report was published on May 12, 2023.

Target price is $7.44 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: minus $0.64 (current price is over target).
If GNC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.78, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 108.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.1, implying annual growth of -33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 60.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.0, implying annual growth of -50.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $8.03

Petra Capital rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital has analysed data for IPH's Australian IP market. As anticipated, March 2023 filings are materially lower year-on-year because of the disruption from the cyber incident and the cycling of tough comparables.

Yet the broker believes a large portion of the underperformance will be recouped. The analysis confirms there is no reason to change the forecasts and a Buy rating and $10.65 target are maintained.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $2.62
If IPH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.74, suggesting upside of 34.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.8, implying annual growth of 77.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.30 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.9, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MCP    MCPHERSON'S LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $0.58

Moelis rates ((MCP)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis observes a weaker trading update was caused by supply issues at Dr LeWinn's. This offset positive sales growth in Essential Beauty and Fusion.

McPherson's expects underlying pre-tax profit in FY23 will be in line with the run rate in the year to date that implies, on the broker's calculations, $7.2m, a -12.1% downgrade to consensus estimates.

Management continues to progress its search for a new CEO who, once appointed, as Moelis suggests, will undertake a comprehensive review of the business strategy and ensure the appropriate structure and investment going forward. Hold maintained. Target is $0.64.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.055
If MCP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.28.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.70 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.30.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.68

Wilsons rates ((MYX)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

The market update from Mayne Pharma has provided Wilsons with confidence to roll back the discount placed on fundamental valuation, owing to the execution on core strategies.

While there was a lack of quantifiable trading numbers, the broker finds growth for Nextstellis is in line with expectations and TXMD sales are tracking better than previously envisaged.

If the company can continue to deliver into FY24 the broker believes this will constitute a meaningful turnaround. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target rises to $4.43 from $3.50.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $4.43 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.75
If MYX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of minus 55.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.63.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.97.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $11.85

Wilsons rates ((NXT)) as Overweight (1) –

While not surprised by the capital raising, Wilsons was a bit caught out by the timing, expecting NextDC would wait a while to allow for possible upside from any material contract wins to impact the share price.

The capital raising takes first half pro forma gearing to 1.5x from 4.8x. The broker makes minimal changes to FY23 and FY24 forecasts and includes additional growth assets in FY25.

Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $13.43 from $13.64 to allow for the net impact of the increased share count from the capital raising and the increased cash.

This report was published on May 12, 2023.

Target price is $13.43 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: $1.58
If NXT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.65, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 658.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 370.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RBL    REDBUBBLE LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RBL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Redbubble has announced a second round of material cost reductions to maintain the goal of being sustainably positive on free cash flow in the third quarter of FY24.

Operating expenditure is expected to moderate through a -23% cut to the workforce across both the redbubble.com and Teepublic platforms.

Canaccord Genuity believes the cost base is now the right size for the current revenue forecasts but any further deterioration will require more work to maintain costs below 37% of revenue.

The broker retains its $1.15 target. The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 10, 2023.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.76
If RBL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 195% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((RBL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts after Redbubble announced a further (incremental) -$13-15m reduction in operating costs (headcount) in order to return the business to a cash flow positive position. A  one-off -$3.0m restructuring cost was incurred.

While the focus on costs is prudent and de-risks the balance sheet, the analyst remains cautious on the revenue growth outlook,
and the potential impact cost-out will have on sustainable revenue growth.

The broker still expects a -$3.2m cash outflow in FY24 before Redbubble reaches positive free cash flow in FY25. This implies a
cash balance nadir of $20.5m in FY24, which compares to the $7.9m previously assumed.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target rises to 59c from 53c.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.59 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.2
If RBL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -18.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Suncorp Group's Bank division released its quarterly update as required under APRA’s prudential standard APS330.

Loan growth slowed meaningfully, observes Goldman Sachs, to 2% annualised from 6% in the previous corresponding period. It's thought this outcome aligns with management's focus on managing growth levels to protect margin.

The broker's Buy rating is unchanged and the target rises to $14.53 from $14.48. This change incorporates a lift from a valuation roll-forward countered by lower earnings forecasts from the lower-than-expected book growth within the Bank.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $14.53 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $2.25
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.59, suggesting upside of 20.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.6, implying annual growth of 85.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden observes momentum is slowing into the second half, with loan growth at 0.5%, as Suncorp Group seeks to temper competitive margin pressures.

Still, the broker estimates net proceeds from the potential sale of the bank business to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) equates to 9.3x PE, in line with regional peers.

While there is a risk surrounding ACCC approval, the implications for valuation appears limited and the insurer ex its bank has a 2024 PE that is in line with that of Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), points out the analyst.

Hence, the stock remains Jarden's preferred domestic general insurer and a Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $13.85 from $13.75.

This report was published on May 10, 2023.

Target price is $13.85 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $1.57
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.59, suggesting upside of 20.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 102.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.6, implying annual growth of 85.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.70 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

THL    TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $3.53

Jarden rates ((THL)) as Overweight (2) –

The investor briefing has provided a broad overview of Tourism Holdings Rentals' businesses. The main focus was NZ manufacturing, showcasing the in-house capabilities.

The board has approved an annual capital expenditure allocation to trial EV campervans, with six vehicles expected to be in the NZ rental fleet for the 2023/24 summer.

Guidance has been reiterated for net profit of at least NZ$75m in FY23. Jarden makes no changes to forecasts at this stage and retains an Overweight rating. Target is NZ$4.61.

This report was published on May 10, 2023.

Current Price is $3.53. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.31 cents and EPS of 23.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.75.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.99 cents and EPS of 28.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.47.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((THL)) as Overweight (1) –

Tourism Holdings Rentals has hosted a site visit to its manufacturing facilities. Wilsons notes the positive aspects include an increase in forward rental bookings and strong growth in the outlook for the upcoming peak season in New Zealand. On the negative side supply chain challenges persist.

FY23 net profit guidance has been maintained for more than NZ$48m but Wilsons notes this was overshadowed by a caveat regarding a potential delay in North American deliveries in the fourth quarter, which could shift earnings into FY24.

Nevertheless, the medium term view outlook remains intact and the broker retains an Overweight rating, reducing the target to $5.06 from $5.48.

This report was published on May 11, 2023.

Target price is $5.06 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $1.53
If THL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.57 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.49 cents and EPS of 35.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.01.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $94.27

Jarden rates ((XRO)) as Overweight (2) –

Leading into FY23 results for Xero on May 18, Jarden sees potential downside risk for UK and US subscribers. Longer term, the UK is considered an opportunity, while the analysts are more cautious on the US.

However, the broker feels subscriber growth is taking a backseat to more profitable growth, which is believed to be partly behind the 15% rally in the share price over the last three months.

Jarden and consensus are expecting opex as a % of operating revenue at around 82%, compared to management guidance for the lower-end of the 80-85% range.

The Overweight rating and $92 target are unchanged.

This report was published on May 15, 2023.

Target price is $92.00 Current Price is $94.27 Difference: minus $2.27 (current price is over target).
If XRO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $92.62, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 614.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 385.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 66.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 142.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.7, implying annual growth of 266.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 105.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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