Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 14, 2023

This story features ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED., and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A11

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

3PL   A11   ABP   ADH   AIZ   AVH   BDT   BLD   BPT   CGS   CKF   CLG   DSK   EGG   EHE   EVN   GUD   INA (2)   KED   KMD   KME   LOV   MGH (2)   PRN   REG  

3PL    3P LEARNING LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $1.12

CCZ Equities – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on June 12, 2023.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.00.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A11    ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.60

Wilsons rates ((A11)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons reviews Atlantic Lithium, which has the flagship Ewoyaa project in Ghana. Piedmont Lithium ((PLL)) has an earn-in agreement and is expected to fund the majority of the capital expenditure for a 50% stake.

Wilsons believes the company is already heavily de-risked as it moves towards a final investment decision and recent news flow in the sector highlights the unique strategic opportunity in the stock. Overweight rating and $1.10 target maintained.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.60 Difference: $0.5
If A11 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 150.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABP    ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.64

Jarden rates ((ABP)) as Overweight (2) –

Abacus Property has updated on its de-stapling proposal with the new information relating to ASK (storage). Jarden likes storage as an asset class and assesses ASK should have an attractive growth profile.

Yet the lack off balance sheet and pro forma forecasts makes it hard to draw strong conclusions with regard to the upside potential for the combined group.

Overweight. Target price is $3.20, which still assumes ABP as a going concern.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.56
If ABP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of -68.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADH)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity notes more challenging trading conditions have become apparent from recent updates from the consumer discretionary sector.

The broker suspects the challenges have moved on from inventory dynamics and cost pressures are now the heightened risk factor to consider. While this is not a particularly new issue it is magnified by the combination of wage pressures and accelerating soft sales.

Stock specific catalysts remain the driver of any re-rating, the broker adds. The Hold rating and $1.60 target are retained for Adairs.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.205
If ADH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.72, suggesting upside of 23.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of -15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIZ    AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.72

Jarden rates ((AIZ)) as Overweight (2) –

Air New Zealand has upgraded pre-tax profit guidance to "no less than NZ$580m", ahead of Jarden's forecasts. The upgrade reflects a combination of ongoing demand and better-than-expected jet fuel costs.

The airline is mindful of an uncertain economic environment and expects fares to moderate from current peaks.

Importantly, while expecting yields to start normalising from current elevated levels, Jarden notes this is taking place against a backdrop of an improved industry structure on a number of key routes.

Target is raised to NZ$0.90 from NZ$0.85. Overweight.

This report was published on June 9, 2023.

Current Price is $0.72. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.66 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.05.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.31 cents and EPS of 8.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.46.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $4.88

Wilsons rates ((AVH)) as Market Weight (3) –

Avita Medical has received US FDA approval for Recell for the treatment of skin defects in soft tissue. As a result, Wilsons expects sales will commence immediately, with initial focus on the level I & 2 trauma centres associated with burn centres where the product is already used.

Forecasts and valuation already account for this expansion while the broker notes there was no mention of the approval for use in vitiligo despite the company submitting the application at the same time as soft tissue. Further updates regarding the outcome for this indication are awaited.

Wilsons retains a Market Weight rating and $4.28 target.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.28 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If AVH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 82.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -75.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -26.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BDT    BIRDDOG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.14

CCZ Equities – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on June 12, 2023.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.93.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.36.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD    BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.02

Jarden rates ((BLD)) as Overweight (2) –

Boral's updated guidance remains consistent with Jarden's expectations. The CEO has reiterated strategic intentions to lead the market on price, flatten the business structure and add greater commercial rigour.

Yet, the broker remains somewhat sceptical given the "ill disciplined" industry has typically won out in the past. That said, given a privileged east coast position which provides a low-cost delivery option, Jarden believes the double-digit margin target should be attainable.

The broker retains an Overweight rating and $4.10 target.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.08
If BLD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting downside of -10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of 53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.31

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Beach Energy has announced the Trigg 1 exploration well in the Perth Basin failed to flow gas and will be plugged and abandoned.

While disappointed, Jarden points out this does not write off the remaining potential of the Perth Basin, although highlights the challenges in finding a permeable reservoir in the Kingia formation at such depth.

This well was significant in that it was the first Beach Energy-operated exploration well drilled using 3D seismic and also the first to test the Kingia potential this far south of other gas discoveries in that formation.

Jarden retains an Overweight rating and lowers the target to $1.70 from $1.75.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.385
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 40.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 35.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.71

CCZ Equities – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on June 12, 2023.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 105.12.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.68.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $8.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CKF)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity notes more challenging trading conditions have become apparent from recent updates from the consumer discretionary sector.

The broker suspects the challenges have moved on from inventory dynamics and cost pressures are now the heightened risk factor to consider. While this is not a particularly new issue it is magnified by the combination of wage pressures and accelerating soft sales.

Stock specific catalysts remain the driver of any re-rating, the broker adds. The Hold rating is maintained for Collins Foods while the target is lowered to $7.25 from $7.50. The company will report its FY23 results on June 27.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 47.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLG    CLOSE THE LOOP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.42

CCZ Equities – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on June 12, 2023.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.25.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $1.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes more challenging trading conditions have become apparent from recent updates from the consumer discretionary sector.

The broker suspects the challenges have moved on from inventory dynamics and cost pressures are now the heightened risk factor to consider. While this is not a particularly new issue it is magnified by the combination of wage pressures and accelerating soft sales.

Stock specific catalysts remain the driver of any re-rating, the broker adds. A drop of -5% in like-for-like sales in FY24 is now anticipated for Dusk Group and the target is reduced to $1.60 from $2.20. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.585
If DSK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 17.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 18.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EGG    ENERO GROUP LIMITED

Media – Overnight Price: $1.38

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EGG)) as Buy (1) –

Enero Group has signalled lower-than-expected revenue growth and EBITDA across both its creative technology & data as well as brand transformation segments. The business has restructured its cost base and this is expected to result in more stable margins.

If investors are able to look through the muted growth prospects over the short term, Canaccord Genuity believes there is latent value in the company's diversified media portfolio.

While tempted to reconsider its recommendation, the valuation metrics are such that the broker retains a positive stance with a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $3.25 from $4.75.

This report was published on June 9, 2023.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $1.875
If EGG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.09.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHE    ESTIA HEALTH LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.97

Moelis rates ((EHE)) as Buy (1) –

Bain has revised its non-binding cash proposal for Estia Health to $3.20 a share.

Moelis raises its target price 10% to $3.30 to reflect increases in funding from the Federal Budget and the bid.

The broker believes the budget increases, which included a fully funded 15% rise in direct worker pay and 6% indexation rise in AN-ACC care funding, have partly de-risked Estia Health, and the broker expects government support should be maintained for the foreseeable future given the industry continues to struggle post covid.

Moelis appreciates the company's strong balance sheet, and good management track record, which it expects will allow it to outperform a fragmented and distressed post-covid market.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $3.30 from $3.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.33
If EHE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.02.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Evolution Mining has provided a strategy update, expecting gold production to increase 17% with growth largely driven by Cowal and Red Lake. Beyond FY24 the company is guiding to gold production of 800,000ozpa.

Canaccord Genuity anticipates strong cash flow from Cowal over FY24-26 as major capital exxpenditure rolls off.

The company has sanctioned its Mungari mill expansion project which will mean capacity increases to 4.2mtpa. Near-term debt has been refinanced and the broker continues to prefer Evolution Mining across its ASX-listed gold coverage.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $4.20 from $3.95.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.84
If EVN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.33, suggesting downside of -1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -18.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 80.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD    G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $8.50

Wilsons rates ((GUD)) as Overweight (1) –

G.U.D. Holdings appears to be enduring some modest softness associated with new vehicle supply and customer inventory management. Yet Wilsons believes its relative earnings resilience should be rewarded by investors.

Further afield the broker remains bullish on the structural growth in demand for 4WD's and SUVs while export opportunities provide another area of potential growth.

Along with the deleveraging of the balance sheet the outlook supports a further re-rating of the share price and the broker retains an Overweight rating, reducing the target to $11.00 from $11.29.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: $2.5
If GUD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.03, suggesting upside of 29.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 76.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.6, implying annual growth of 239.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 82.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.9, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((INA)) as Neutral (3) –

Ingenia Communities has reaffirmed FY23 guidance although signalled settlements will be at the lower end of the 370-420 range. While the sale prices for new homes are holding up, the company has noted consumer caution, with market conditions deteriorating since February.

Goldman Sachs observes the balance sheet is in good shape and while there will be significant capital requirements in the development business the company is progressing with capital recycling. Neutral maintained. Target is $4.85.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.82
If INA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((INA)) as Buy (1) –

Ingenia Communities has reiterated FY23 guidance although settlements are now expected to be at the lower end of the 370-420 range.

The company has flagged the fact buyers have been hesitant, although Moelis believes it more likely developers have been affected by the availability of labour and materials rather than buyer demand.

Development profitability and timing remains a downside risk and the broker retains a Buy rating and $4.51 target.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.48
If INA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KED    KEYPATH EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL INC

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KED)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage of Keypath Education International with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.85 target. The business has built a scalable platform that assists university partners in launching online programs efficiently.

The broker assesses the last three years has meant universities have become more willing to find external partners, which underscores a need to attract new students through broader channels.

The broker points to the company's commercial model which has a good level of revenue visibility and a profile towards cash flow breakeven.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.555
If KED meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 188% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KMD)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity notes more challenging trading conditions have become apparent from recent updates from the consumer discretionary sector.

The broker suspects the challenges have moved on from inventory dynamics and cost pressures are now the heightened risk factor to consider. While this is not a particularly new issue it is magnified by the combination of wage pressures and accelerating soft sales.

Stock specific catalysts remain the driver of any re-rating, the broker adds. A more cautious outlook is maintained for KMD Brands although solid growth is expected into FY24. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $1.01 from $1.06.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $1.01 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.025
If KMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.94 cents and EPS of 7.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.77 cents and EPS of 8.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of 19.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KME    KIP MCGRATH EDUCATION CENTRES LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.44

CCZ Equities – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on June 12, 2023.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.12 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.57.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.84 cents and EPS of 8.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.45.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $19.09

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LOV)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes more challenging trading conditions have become apparent from recent updates from the consumer discretionary sector.

The broker suspects the challenges have moved on from inventory dynamics and cost pressures are now the heightened risk factor to consider. While this is not a particularly new issue it is magnified by the combination of wage pressures and accelerating soft sales.

Stock specific catalysts remain the driver of any re-rating, the broker adds. The pullback in the share price presents an attractive entry point for Lovisa Holdings and a Buy rating is maintained, with the target reduced to $27.30 from $28.60.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $27.30 Current Price is $19.09 Difference: $8.21
If LOV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.56, suggesting upside of 44.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 73.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.8, implying annual growth of 24.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 89.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.9, implying annual growth of 25.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

Maas Group has narrowed EBITDA guidance to $150-165m, which is -10.6% below Goldman Sachs' prior estimates. The downgrade is driven by a weaker performance in residential real estate as higher interest rates and builder insolvencies weigh on land subdivision sales.

On the other hand, civil construction and construction materials are resilient, amid robust infrastructure workload and pricing power.

The broker believes a growing housing shortage and regional growth/infrastructure investment should support long-term prospects. Buy rating retained. Target is $4.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $1.14
If MGH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1) –

Maas Group has updated FY23 EBITDA guidance to $150-165m, which includes fair value gains from property held for investment. Wilsons is encouraged by the company's confirmation of a stronger trading performance in the second half.

Primarily this appears to be driven by increased activity across the construction segment as opposed to residential settlements, which have been weak. Overweight rating maintained. Target of $4.51 is under review.

This report was published on June 9, 2023.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: $1.65
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PRN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity found the strategy presentation from Perenti upbeat and increases estimates for EPS by 2% and 8% across FY23 and FY24, respectively.

The company expects to report earnings at the top of its prior guidance range while expenditure will be below the previous forecast.

The broker notes there are several contract extensions approaching which should support margin expansion amid lighter capital requirements. A greater percentage of revenue is also anticipated to come from underground work and technology.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $1.51 from $1.43.

This report was published on June 7, 2023.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.305
If PRN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.80.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG    REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.28

Moelis rates ((REG)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis reviews its estimates for Regis Healthcare to reflect the funding increases announced in the Federal Budget, and to reflect the valuation implications for the company arising from an indicative bid for peer Estia Health.

The broker believes the budget increases have partly de-risked Regis Healthcare, which resulted in a fully funded 15% rise in direct worker pay and a roughly 6% indexation rise in AN-ACC funding from July 1, 2024. 

Moelis expects funding to remain accommodative for the medium term given 40% of operators were registering a loss as at October 22.

Meanwhile, the broker observes a recovery in occupancy and spies M&A opportunities as increase compliance costs drives consolidation.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to $2.52 from $2.36.

This report was published on June 8, 2023.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $0.24
If REG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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