Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 13, 2023

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ANZ   BXB   CMM   CRD   GMD   JIN   LIN   NXT   PBH   PLL   SGM (2)   SYA  

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $25.27

Goldman Sachs rates ((ANZ)) as Buy (1) –

ANZ Bank has recently updated on its institutional payments and platforms business which has reinforced Goldman Sachs' expectations for improved profitability in the transaction banking business.

Management has indicated the institutional division earned a 14% return on equity in the first half with the improvement driven by a shift towards higher returning payments and cash management and consolidation towards higher-quality customers. Buy rating reiterated. Target is $27.55.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $27.55 Current Price is $25.27 Difference: $2.28
If ANZ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting upside of 4.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 248.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.9, implying annual growth of -5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.7, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $15.18

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes the latest data on US pallets indicates a positive pricing spread between lumber pallet costs and lumber pallet pricing, providing a tailwind for margins for Brambles.

This reinforces the broker's confidence in forecasting FY24 underlying EBIT margin expansion of 55 basis points in CHEP Americas.

A further margin tailwind could occur from lower lumber prices that reduce the average pallet price, combined with lower assumed loss rates as pallet audits increase and cycle times improve. Overweight rating and $16 target maintained.

This report was published on September 8, 2023.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.18 Difference: $0.82
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.52, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 69.97 cents and EPS of 78.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 76.13 cents and EPS of 85.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.8, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.20

Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Overweight (2) –

FY23 results were in line and Jarden observes, while accounting details affected the headline, Capricorn Metals now has better upside exposure to the price of gold.

From FY24 the remaining hedge now qualifies for accounting treatment, effectively avoiding realisation of mark-to-market gains or losses.

The target rises to $4.92 from $4.82. Overweight.

This report was published on September 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.92 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.72
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.18.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.55

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CRD)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Conrad Asia Energy remains well-placed to capitalise on the growth in Asia's energy market, Canaccord Genuity asserts, despite delays in the delivery of a foundation gas contract for Mako.

The Mako gas field is the largest undeveloped gas resource in the West Natuna and an agreement between a Singapore buyer and the Indonesian regulator are now expected to be finalised in the September quarter.

The company has opened up a data room for a partial divestments of its interest in Mako, currently 76.5%, and bids are expected to be received after the finalisation of the gas contract. The broker retains a Speculative Buy rating and the target edges up to $2.78 from $2.76.

This report was published on September 12, 2023.

Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $1.23
If CRD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.98.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Genesis Minerals has reported high grade drill results from Gwalia which Canaccord Genuity observes underpin the next seven years of mine production. Grades are well above the current reserve/resource grades of 5.0g/t and 5.8g/t and are from the key south-west zone.

The company intends to focus its mining efforts on this zone, moving away from the lower grade, less consistent northern extensions and peripheral mineralisation.

The broker forecasts FY24 production of 139,000 ounces at an AISC of $2299/oz. Buy rating and $2.30 target maintained.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.63
If GMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.70.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $15.50

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jumbo Interactive has confirmed the extension of its original software-as-a-service contract with Lotterywest. The option to extend has lengthened to four years from three years, providing greater certainty, although Jarden notes this comes at a financial cost.

Coordinated marketing efforts led to 8% total transaction value growth in the west despite a benign market and therefore, while a slight negative, the broker understands the need to increase co-funded marketing costs.

Jarden envisages significant scope to grow, given Lotterywest's digital online presence of 22.5% compared with Jumbo Interactive's east coast rate of 40%. Neutral and $16.17 target retained.

This report was published on September 10, 2023.

Target price is $16.17 Current Price is $15.50 Difference: $0.67
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.32, suggesting upside of 18.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 73.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 44.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 81.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.9, implying annual growth of 18.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIN    LINDIAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.25

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LIN)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage of Lindian Resources with a Speculative Buy rating and $0.70 target. The company is a rare earth developer, owning the Kangankunde project in Malawi, having acquired  the asset for US$30m in 2022 after a long litigation process.

The broker observes the project is among the best quality rare earth deposits globally with a resource of 261mt at 2.2% total rare earth oxides.

The assumed development scenario envisages a three-stage development, with a smaller lower-risk first stage being prudent and delivering $100m in EBITDA per year over FY26-28.

This report was published on September 12, 2023.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.45
If LIN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 180% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $13.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NXT)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes the market may have been underwhelmed by NextDC's guidance for FY24 but the order book should provide comfort, as this stretches more than five years ahead and overshadows the investment required to deliver the growth that may take the shine of earnings in the current year.

The broker is of the view there are few companies on ASX which provides high visibility that revenue will double over the next five years along with a near-doubling of billable capacity. Buy rating retained. The target rises to $14.65 from $13.05.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $13.00 Difference: $1.65
If NXT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.81, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 171.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 168.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.77

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden reduces its target to $0.90 from $1.90 to reflect the capital return distributed by PointsBet Holdings following the initial completion of the US$225m sale of its US operations.

A further capital return of between 39-44c is anticipated post the final sale and likely in March 2024. Jarden believes the business is materially undervalued despite recognising the less relevant equity market presence following the sale.

The broker believes an exit of the US operations and demonstrating a pathway to profitability in Canada will only increase the attractiveness of the stock.  Buy retained.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.13
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 85.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLL    PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Piedmont Lithium has received US$31.6m in prepayments for a 15,000t concentrate shipment planned for September. Canaccord Genuity highlights cash margins on the sale of more than 130% with the company expecting to commit this to Ewoyaa and Tennessee.

The average price implied by the prepayment is US$2340/t versus spot prices of US$3000/t at the time of sale. The broker is unsure about construing anything negative from the lower pricing, understanding concentrate specifications are largely in line with targets while the nature of the counterparty may be expected to lead to some level of discounting.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target falls to $1.75 from $2.00.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $1.06
If PLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 154% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 743.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.09.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1521.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $13.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Buy (1) –

Sims has guided to break even for the first quarter because of weak inflows and competition for scrap across all regions. The company has now based guidance on an understanding of the trends in August and early September.

Considering US domestic and Turkish seaborne scrap prices in the quarter to date are just -10% below second half averages, Goldman Sachs observes guidance implies higher purchase prices and lower volumes.

Longer term the broker remains positive about the demand for scrap given increasing global electric arc furnace capacity as the global steel industry decarbonises, as well as green metals demand and infrastructure expenditure.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced $15.70 from $17.50.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $13.62 Difference: $2.08
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.9, implying annual growth of 185.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Continued subdued demand for global steel along with keenly sought scrap is leading to further margin compression, Jarden asserts.

Sims now expects breakeven in the first quarter of FY24 and, to make matters worse, the broker points out a relatively resilient US market is showing signs of slowing.

The latest announcement highlights the challenges to visibility and resultant risk to forecasting, and Jarden believes this is the reason for relatively low sector M&A transaction multiples.

Longer term the business is considered well-placed to participate in the global trends of decarbonisation and further industry consolidation. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $16.53 from $17.67.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $16.53 Current Price is $13.62 Difference: $2.91
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.53, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 66.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.3, implying annual growth of -54.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.30 cents and EPS of 114.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.9, implying annual growth of 185.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYA)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Sayona Mining has recently received the payment for the first sale of 20,500t of spodumene concentrate from its North American lithium joint venture. Pricing was not disclosed.

Canaccord Genuity observes the North American Lithium ramp up is reportedly on budget, highlighting concentrate grades of 5.5% and other specifications in line with expectations.

The broker continues to model first half FY24 production of 90,000t, at the lower end of guidance.

The company has recently recommenced drilling at Moblan which the broker envisages as a quality development prospect within a favourable location. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $0.25 from $0.30.

This report was published on September 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.15
If SYA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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