Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 04, 2024

This story features AIC MINES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   APE   BRI   EQT   GOZ   HUB   LRK   MND   SGM   SLC   TLX   UNI   WSP  

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.30

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from AIC Mines were softer than Moelis expected. The broker is focused on cash flow as a driver of valuation in small cap resources and therefore the first half result had only minimal impact on the target, steady at $0.52.

Moelis assesses the business is a simple, domestic exposure to a compelling copper thematic. In addition to the commodity exposure in a limited field in the domestic market, AIC Mines also enjoys a clean balance sheet and growth options. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.215
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $14.39

Moelis rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Eagers Automotive posted a strong result, given inventory stepped up significantly in the second half, Moelis observes. The final dividend of $0.50 brought the full year to $0.74; ahead of expectations.

Moelis assesses the new vehicle efficiency standard will be positive for the company as, if implemented in its current form, from January 1, 2025 it will effectively increase the price of high emission vehicles and reduce the price of low emission vehicles, probably instigating a pull forward of demand prior to the implementation.

Buy rating maintained. Target is $15.96.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $15.96 Current Price is $14.39 Difference: $1.57
If APE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 72.20 cents and EPS of 110.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.1, implying annual growth of 0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.80 cents and EPS of 108.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.8, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRI    BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.85

Moelis rates ((BRI)) as Buy (1) –

Big River Industries delivered first half underlying earnings that were weaker than Moelis expected. The EBITDA margins compressed to 9.2%. The broker notes strong cash conversion and working capital management support the balance sheet.

Forecasts are rebased, resulting in a -20% reduction to FY24 EPS and -11% to FY25. Expectations for a near-term recovery are eased back.

While residential exposure continues to weigh, Moelis asserts modest gearing and continued cash generation stand the company in good stead. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.29 from $2.61.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.29 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.435
If BRI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.12.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EQT    EQT HOLDINGS LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $29.48

Wilsons rates ((EQT)) as Overweight (1) –

While EQT Holdings reported year-on-year net profit growth of 24.9% in the first half, and revenue growth of 37.3%, Wilsons points out meaningful earnings margin expansion in the period was prevented by increased operating expenditure, underpinned by higher employee costs.

The company has provided no quantitative guidance for the full year, but expects revenue and funds under management to grow ahead of net profit momentum.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $31.50 from $32.70.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $29.48 Difference: $2.02
If EQT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 107.50 cents and EPS of 147.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.03.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 136.50 cents and EPS of 182.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.20.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOZ    GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.25

Moelis rates ((GOZ)) as Buy (1) –

Growthpoint Properties Australia posted first half free funds from operations of 12.1c per security, ahead of expectations. FY24 guidance was reiterated.

Moelis believes the WALE (weighted average lease expiry) of 6.2 years for office and 4.9 years for industrial should be key for investors, because these underpin the quality and stability of the income profile, 94% leased to government, listed or large companies.

This enables the business to service a relatively higher debt load over the short term. The broker expects the company will be a net seller of assets as liquidity and real estate markets improve throughout 2024 and this should mean gearing declines. Buy rating and $3.43 target maintained.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $3.43 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $1.18
If GOZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.97, suggesting upside of 31.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $39.38

Jarden rates ((HUB)) as Neutral (3) –

Despite Hub24's platform division continuing to perform well through the second half, Jarden points out bottom line benefits were constrained by strategic technology investments, higher depreciation and amortisation, and a higher effective tax rate.

The broker has made adjustments to its earnings per share forecasts for FY24 and FY25, anticipating stategic investment costs will be recurring and that platform revenue margins may show greater compression from the second half.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $38.50 from $37.10.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $39.38 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $40.54, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 81.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.7, implying annual growth of 75.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.80 cents and EPS of 105.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.20

Moelis rates ((LRK)) as Hold (3) –

Lark Distilling Co pre-reported first half sales while adjusted EBITDA was broadly in line with estimates. Moelis found the first half a continuation of the turnaround strategy under new management.

The company has taken several steps to reduce operating cash burn and strengthen its balance sheet.

While assuming growth in domestic markets and from initial export sales in the second half, Moelis expects this will be more than offset by a slowdown in the Chinese indirect export channel.

The broker is a patient observer of the stock, awaiting results from initial export orders, and maintains a Hold rating with an unchanged target of $1.42.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.22
If LRK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.53.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.82.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $14.33

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Overweight (2) –

Following a broadly in line first half result from Monadelphous Group, Jarden observes the company has updated its full year guidance.

The new target of 10% year-on-year top line growth implies a slighlty lower full year revenue result than previously expected.

The broker expects the market will be watching to see if Monadelphous Group can convert new engineering and construction contracts into earnings in the coming half. 

Jarden anticipates a step up in capital expenditure intensity, which is considers neccessary for Monadelphous Group to begin works on new contracts and maintain equipment. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $14.45 are retained.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $14.33 Difference: $0.12
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 61.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.50 cents and EPS of 71.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $12.38

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Sims has reported first half underlying earnings of $13.4m, a result that has disappointed Jarden's expected $18.0m and left the broker underwhelmed.

At this stage, no quantitative outlook has been provided for the second half or for the full year. The broker does believe the worst, operationally, may be behind Sims now, and that cost savings can assist in recovery, it warns downside risk to market earnings remains.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $14.00 from $14.66.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.38 Difference: $1.62
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 11.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 89.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of -74.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 97.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 288.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $1.05

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1) –

According to Wilsons, consumer growth was the standout metric of Superloop's first half result, with the company continuing to report strong organic subscriber growth since its annual general in November, although all segments performed well in the period.

Not only does the result lay a solid foundation for full year results, says Wilsons, but also provides a strong start to the company's three-year plan to more than double revenue beyond $700m by FY26.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.17 from 92 cents.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.12
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.43.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 210.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $11.93

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Following a broadly in-line FY23 from Telix Pharmaceuticals, with revenue of $502m, the company is guiding to a FY24 revenue result of $675-705m.

According to Wilsons, this range represents a stretch target at the upper end, anticipating market share gains for Illucix.

The result reflects a 222% increase in sales year-on-year. The broker notes gross margins softened over the second half as discounted government contracting increased.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $12.43 from $12.25.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $12.43 Current Price is $11.93 Difference: $0.5
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.58.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $4.57

Wilsons rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (1) –

With net profits of $20.0m, Universal Store reported a 7% beat to consensus expectations in the first half. The result was in line with Wilsons' expectations, as were sales, while gross margins exceeded expectations.

The broker feels the retailer maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash of $27.4m, alongside decreased inventory year-on-year, in what it calls a "prudent approach in a volatile consumer environment."

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.80 from $5.30.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $1.23
If UNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.90 cents and EPS of 36.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 45.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSP    WHISPIR LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.55

Wilsons – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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