Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 20, 2024

This story features ARGENICA THERAPEUTICS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGN

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AGN   ALC   ARU   BRE (2)   CLV   CMM   CTM   CWY   CXO (3)   DLI   DRE   EMN   EVN   GNX   GOR   HAS   ILU   LEL   LIN   LNW   LOT   LTR (2)   LYC   MEI   MTS (2)   NST   NTU   NXD   PEK   RMS   TIE   TLS   TWE   VHM   WDS  

AGN    ARGENICA THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.56

Petra Capital rates ((AGN)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital has initiated coverage on Argenica Therapeutics, with its valuation underpinned by the company's ARG-007 treatment as it enters into phase two trials for ischemic strokes. 

As per the broker, ARG-007 is a first-in-class peptide whose neuroprotective properties targets large and and orphan neurology markets with high unmet needs. Safety and early efficacy results are compelling. 

The broker also notes significant upside optionality exists from the company advancing earlier stage indications into the clinic.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.09.

This report was published on March 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.525
If AGN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.42.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.91.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALC    ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ALC)) as Buy (1) –

While Canaccord Genuity's positive investment thesis for Alcidion Group includes the move to digitising the UK health systems across NHS, it has equally been the broker's view one must take into account political disruption and delays in execution generally.

Last week, NHS announced additional investment into its technological and digital transformation, and the broker spots (cautiously) great news. There is potential for multiple large new contract announcements.

There's now also a strategic partner in Novari. The Buy rating and target price of 10 cents are retained.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.049
If ALC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARU    ARAFURA RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARU)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Arafura Rare Earths falls to 40c from 50c and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.195
If ARU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $2.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BRE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Brazilian Rare Earths falls to $3.20 from $3.40 and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.8
If BRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Petra Capital rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital expects there may be sector wide implications from Hastings Technology Metals' ((HAS)) recently announced offtake agreement with Baotao Sky Rock. 

While the broker forecasts Brazilian Rare Earths to demand 40% of the rare earth oxide benchmark pricing, Hastings Technology has secured a 70% rate. Petra Capital, having reviewed the saleability of Brazilian Rare Earths' concentrate, has lifted the anticipated price achievement.

The broker does expect the Hastings Technology deal to prove an outlier.  The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.61 from $2.97.

This report was published on March 12, 2024.

Target price is $3.61 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $1.21
If BRE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.35.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.02.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLV    CLOVER CORPORATION LIMITED

Health & Nutrition – Overnight Price: $0.81

Petra Capital rates ((CLV)) as Buy (1) –

a2 Milk ((A2M)) estimates that the infant formula market in China declined by -14% by value (-11% by volume) in 1H24, with English-labelled product proving more resilient than Chinese-labelled product.

While Petra Capital does not expect Clover to be immune from weaker 1H24 sales in China IF, there are mitigating factors. First and foremost is the fact that Clover reiterated its guidance for FY24 at its AGM in late November 2023.

That said, beyond FY24, the broker sees greater downside risk to forecasts based on an updated view that China, which accounts for  some 50% of global IF demand, will take longer to recover than previously thought.

Petra cuts its FY24-26 earnings forecasts by -2%, -21% and -15%, and target to 98c from $1.10. Buy retained on Clover's competitive position and long-term growth prospects.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.98 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.175
If CLV meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.83.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.30.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.99

Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Overweight (2) –

Heavy rainfall has caused a more than eight day impact on Capricorn Metals' Karlawinda mining operations, with the area hit with close to 300 millilitres of rainfall in January and early March. Jarden anticipates this will bring March quarter production to 26,000 ounces. 

The company has narrowed full year production guidance to the lower end of its 115-125,000 ounce range, and costs to the higher end of the $1,270-1,370 per ounce range.

The Oveweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.75 from $4.77.

This report was published on March 11, 2024.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.22.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTM    CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.30

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTM)) as No Rating (-1) –

As Centaurus Metals has announced it is deferring the downstream component of its upcoming DFS for the Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Carajás Mineral Province, Brazil, Canaccord Genuity has been forced to review its assumptions and forecasts.

The broker is blaming the low nickel price and management is clearly looking into a more efficient capex allocation.

On the broker's modeling, circa -US$450m inclusive of working capital could be required to build Jaguar, opening up a potential funding gap of some -US$240m, to be covered through debt and equity.

The broker highlights Jaguar is one of the largest undeveloped nickel projects on the ASX and is potentially low cost owing to the power supply situation in Brazil.

Speculative Buy with an 80c price target.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.5
If CTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 508.47.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2000.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.60

Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Overweight (2) –

Cleanaway Waste Management's liquid waste and health division delivered underlying earnings of $29m in the first half, and Jarden suggests this opens up a conversation around the intended pathway to earnings of $100m from the segment by FY27.

The result was a miss to Jarden's forecast, with the company outlining an anticipated improving earnings outlook for the segment. The company believes it is on track to achieve an annualised run rate of $15m in earnings in the fourth quarter. 

As per Jarden, this could be extrapolated to a $113m earnings result in FY27, but the broker warns the neccessary capital to reach this is currently unclear.

The Overweight rating and target price of $2.85 are retained.

This report was published on March 12, 2024.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.25
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 716.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CXO)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) –

A challenging first half for Core Lithium, says Canaccord Genuity, with spodumene pricing taking a -75% tumble over the period. Negative earnings of -$11.5m were largely in line with the broker's expectations, but net losses of -$167.6 disappointed. 

The steep lithium pricing decline saw the company undertake a strategic review, ultimately suspending mining at the Grants open pit. Core Lithium has noted it is unlikley it will be able to meet its offtake agreement obligations to Ganfeng and Yahua.

The rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold and the target price decreases to 14 cents from 19 cents.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Goldman Sachs rates ((CXO)) as Sell (5) –

Following the suspension of mining in January, Core Lithium announced mutual termination of its mining services agreement, and will now end its operation and maintenance agreement once the processing of the remaining stocks is completed in mid-2024.

While the company is restructuring its business in response to the decrease in the spodumene price, Goldman Sachs notes that with the mining contract terminated and notice given on the processing contract, a near-term restart of the Finniss operation is increasingly unlikely.

Goldman rates Core Lithium a relative Sell, as on valuation it appears relatively expensive trading at a premium with ongoing risk to Finniss restart timing. Target falls to 13c from 14c.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((CXO)) as Sell (5) –

The release of Core Lithium's first half result has coincided with the announcement of the departure of the company's CEO after a little over eighteen months in the role.

The broker otherwise described the December half as 'noisy', noting a -$119.7m impairment was reported, the bulk of which was attributable to mine properties and waste stripping at the Finniss project.

The result was a headline net loss of -$167m, far exceeding both Jarden's and consensus expectations.

The Sell rating and target price of 15 cents are retained.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.75.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DLI    DELTA LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.32

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DLI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Delta Lithium has executed binding joint venture agreements with Voltaic Strategic Resources and Reach Resources, at an upfront cost to the company of -$4.5m. 

As per Canaccord Genuity, the farm-in agreements see Delta Lithium grow its footrprint in the region by more than 30%. The deal allows the company to earn up to 80% interest in a number of tenement packages nearby its Yinnetharra lithium project. 

The broker considers the move a ground grab to solidy Delta Lithium as the region's dominant player, particulalry given work to date has not uncovered economic occurances of lithium. 

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 70 cents are retained.

This report was published on March 11, 2024.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.38
If DLI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRE    DREADNOUGHT RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRE)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity remains convinced China's demand for rare earth minerals will recover on the back of ongoing fiscal stimulus. The second half of 2024 should see better pricing.

Dreadnought Resources, meanwhile, seems to have stalled all exploration around the Yin trend, probably awaiting the arrival of better market conditions, the broker surmises.

Instead, the attention seems to have shifted to early stage gold exploration at Mangaroon. Canaccord Genuity believes some impressive gold intercepts have already been uncovered.

The rating remains Speculative Buy, with a price target of 7c.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.053
If DRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 312% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMN    EURO MANGANESE INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.09

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Euro Manganese's Chvaletice manganese project has been formally listed as under appraisal for debt financing with the European Investment Bank (EIB), a lending arm of the EU and one of the largest climate finance providers in the world.

As per Canaccord Genuity, the EU is looking to provide support to projects that provide advancement towards a sustainable and resilient domestic supply chain, in a bid to meet emissions targets. With this in mind, Chvaletic ticks a number of boxes. 

With the EIB recently proposing a EUR500m comittment to Vulcan Energy ((VUL)), the broker expects Euro Manganese may be able to expect a similar level of support.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of $1.15 are retained.

This report was published on March 11, 2024.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $1.057
If EMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.30.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Evolution Mining, the broker has a Buy rating and $4.20 target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.40 Difference: $0.8
If EVN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 7.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 180.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNX    GENEX POWER LIMITED

EV, Solar & Batteries – Overnight Price: $0.24

Petra Capital rates ((GNX)) as Buy (1) –

New commitments to large scale renewable projects in 2023 were down -77% , Petra Capital notes, with the decline a function of a constrained grid, slow planning and approval processes, higher costs, and tighter markets for equipment and labour.

Petra believes renewable energy and storage companies with operating assets and near-term development projects are significantly more attractive to corporate investors than greenfield opportunities.

J-Power is currently conducting due diligence after making an indicative offer for Genex at 27.5c, which is in line with Petra's valuation, but the broker retains Buy as its sees the potential for 12% upside to the offer price post due diligence.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.03
If GNX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 81.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.55

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Gold Road Resources, the broker has a Buy rating and $1.90 target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.35
If GOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 18.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of -8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 30.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS    HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.62

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HAS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Hastings Technology Metals falls to $2.20 from $2.50 and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $1.58
If HAS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 255% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $7.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ILU)) as Hold (3) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Iluka Resources falls to $7.00 from $7.50 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.78, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of -45.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.1, implying annual growth of 46.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LEL    LITHIUM ENERGY LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.58

Petra Capital rates ((LEL)) as Buy (1) –

Lithium Energy has disclosed strong battery test work results from its Burke project, indicating product is suitable for sale in battery markets.

With macro conditions appearing to be on the improve (peer Syrah Resources ((SYR)) has rallied more than 50% in thirty days), Petra Capital points out Lithium Energy may be well placed for Burke to take advantage of an improving sector outlook. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.85 are retained.

This report was published on March 12, 2024.

Target price is $1.86 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $1.28
If LEL meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 221% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.27.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIN    LINDIAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $0.13

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LIN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Lindian Resources falls to 50c from 70c and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.373
If LIN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 294% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $152.39

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Overweight (2) –

Market leader Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) has filed legal action against Light & Wonder and its new title, Dragon Train, claiming the game breaches intellectual property in relation to its own title Dragon Link.

Jarden notes litigation is common on the highly competitive US graming space, and players typically find mixed success. Following early phenomonal success with its Australian launch, the broker points out this could suggest commercial concern for Dragon Train's US launch.

The broker continues to see the commercial success of Dragon Train in the US as critical to Light & Wonder realising earnings targets.

The Overweight rating and target price of $161.00 are retained.

This report was published on March 12, 2024.

Target price is $161.00 Current Price is $152.39 Difference: $8.61
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 419.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.37.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 542.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.11.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.40

Petra Capital rates ((LOT)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital anticipates the gap to peer valuations will close for Lotus Resources as funding is secured and the final investment decision (FID) is announced for Kayelekera.

The broker increases its target to 50c from 42c after incorporating the "transformative" recently-acquired Letlhakane Project into forecasts.

The transaction diversifies exposure into Botswana and gives Lotus one of the largest resource bases on the ASX, highlights the analyst. It's thought Letlhakane could become a 4-5mlb per annum project for over 20 years.

The Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.1
If LOT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 100.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 133.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((LTR)) as Neutral (3) –

Liontown Resources has announced a new $550m debt facility with a syndicate of international and domestic commercial banks and government credit agencies, following the termination of the previous $760m debt package.

Net of paying what's left on the old facility, Goldman Sachs estimates the new facility brings fresh debt of around $250m, and the broker continues to expect Liontown to require a further $200m to get to free cash flow generation.

Goldman forecasts Kathleen Valley turning free cash flow positive from mid-2025 on its spodumene price forecast, which should support any refinancing of the debt.

Neutral and $1.45 target retained.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.205
If LTR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 103.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 312.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Liontown Resources has sourced a commitment letter for a reduced debt facility of $550m, after its banking syndicate withdrew its $760m package back in January. Both Westpac Bank ((WBC)) and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) have withdrawn from the syndicate.

The company is working to complete preconditions ahead of drawdown, with a key precondition being provision of a new base case financial model by end of July, including revised mine plan and production, capital expenditure and operational expenditure estimates.

According to Jarden, the debt facility, alongside cash, will not be sufficient.

While possibly funded to first production in mid-2024, Liontown Resources would need to commission ahead of peers and lithium prices would need to be in excess of US$2,000 per dry metric tonne in order to generate sufficient free cash flow to meet repayments by October 2025. 

The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Neutral and the target price of 91 cents is retained.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.91 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.335 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 312.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $5.73

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LYC)) as Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Lynas Rare Earths falls to $6.90 from $7.50 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $1.17
If LYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 14.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of -70.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 201.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.23

Petra Capital rates ((MEI)) as Buy (1) –

Following a review of private equity firm Denham Capital's currently operating ionic rare earth project (Serra Verde) in Brazil, Petra Capital notes the Caldera project owned by Meteoric Resources has materially higher grades and recoveries.

Serra Verde is the first ex-Asia ionic rare earth project to commission, and its performance is considered a litmus test for shareholders in Meteoric Resources and the ionic sector overall.

After allowing for sector cost inflation, the broker lowers its target for Meteoric Resources to 38c from 42c and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.15
If MEI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 57.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Neutral (3) –

The main message of  Metcash's recent strategy day, says Goldman Sachs, was intended investment for growth.

The company outlined plans to step up store roll outs, including around 20 new stores annually within its food segment, as well as five new IHG stores and ten new Total Tools stores annually, alongside a planned increase in capital expenditure.

The broker lifts its group revenue assumptions b 0.1%, 1.1% and 1.8% through to FY26, largely reflecting the greater food and hardware targets. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.70 from $3.60.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of -1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Metcash's recent strategy day, says Jarden, has highlighted the company's scale, diversification and its attractive growth outlook, which the broker believes is not fully reflected in the current stock price.

The broker points out Metcash is in its strongest position in more than fifteen years, being a top three player across all of its verticals with scope for share gains.

Jarden also found an outlined strategic focus clear, consistent and measured, and likely to deliver upside to synergy targets.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.20 from $4.30.

This report was published on March 12, 2024.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.32
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 31.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.7, implying annual growth of -1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $13.84

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Northern Star Resources, the broker has a Buy rating and $16.35 target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $16.35 Current Price is $13.84 Difference: $2.51
If NST meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.80, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.7, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.9, implying annual growth of 59.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NTU    NORTHERN MINERALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NTU)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Northern Minerals falls to 5c from 6c and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.017
If NTU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXD    NEXTED GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.34

Petra Capital rates ((NXD)) as Buy (1) –

Since a government Ministerial Direction was issued in December there has been a lack of transparency around visa issuance, Petra Capital notes. This has had a material impact on English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students and Vocational Education & Training enrolments.

This, in the broker's opinion, has led to NextEd Group withdrawing 2H24 guidance that revenue in 2H24 will surpass 1H24.

But Petra believes any change to the government’s current opaque policy around visa acceptances will have a materially positive impact on the industry and NextEd. Buy and 55c target retained.

This report was published on March 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.21
If NXD meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 48.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEK    PEAK RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.18

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for Peak Rare Earths falls to 70c from 90c and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.515
If PEK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 278% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Ramelius Resources, the broker has a Buy rating and $2.10 target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.485
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 24.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 70.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TIE    TIETTO MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TIE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the incongruity of recent record highs for both Australian dollar and US dollar gold prices and the ASX Gold Index which is currently around -13% below the 52-week high.

In a similar vein, gold companies under research coverage by the broker are all trading below their respective 52-week highs at an average discount of around -18%.

In selecting appropriate company exposures, the broker prefers those either in, or entering a free cash flow (FCF) harvest period. In the screening process, favourable mining jurisdictions and reasonable liquidity/market capitalisation were also looked upon favourably.

Canaccord prefers Buy-rated Perseus Mining, Regis Resources and Ramelius Resources. Bellevue Gold, which is on the cusp of commercial production, is also recommended as a Speculative Buy.

For Tietto Minerals, the broker has a Speculative Buy rating and 80c target price.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.185
If TIE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.78

Jarden rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Telstra Group is set for a review of its network, application and services (NAS) business, following a deterioration in operation conditions.

Despite the company's previous ambitions to grow the segment's earnings margins to mid-teens, Jarden is anticipating a potential -$100m earnings loss could be reported for FY24. 

It is the broker's view that in the short term headcount reductions are a way to extract costs, while medium-term product exits and a simplified operating model could be an option. 

Jarden also believes a strategic review of prior acquisitions and a commitment to better use of capital is required. The Buy rating and target price of $4.40 are retained.

This report was published on March 11, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.62
If TLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $12.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Treasury Wine Estates announced on March 12 that China had proposed the removal of the current tariffs on Australian import wines and that the company anticipates a final determination in the coming weeks.

Management highlighted that if the import tariffs are removed, the impact to FY24 earnings would be minimal (there are not many months left for the year).

Goldman Sachs sees it as a positive catalyst for Treasury Wine as it signals the reopening of a significant, high profit market, in which Penfolds still holds strong brand equity.

Buy and $12.60 target retained.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $0.25
If TWE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of 50.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VHM    VHM LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VHM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Price targets across Canaccord Genuity's global rare earths (RE) coverage fall by -15% on average. This comes as the broker lowers its long-term neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) price to US$120/kg from US$135/kg, and models smaller deficits through to 2030.

Challenging market conditions for NdPr have persisted in early-2024, with the economic recovery anticipated in China yet to materialise and further increases in Chinese production quotas, explain the analysts.

ASX-listed rare earth equities are down on average by -40% in the last year, notes the broker. Preferred exposures include those with near-term catalyst potential, such as exploration finds, positive funding outcomes, offtake agreements and approvals.

The target for VHM falls to $1.20 from $1.40 and the Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.68
If VHM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $30.25

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

As outlined in its Climate Transition Action Plan, Woodside Energy appears well place to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target.

Jarden points out not only does the company have access to 20m tonnes of low cost carbon credits, but it has also committed to projects that avoid and reduce emissions by 28m tonnes of carbon equivalent. 

The broker believes the company should be focusing on its post-2030 reduction ambitions, noting these will likely require expensive investment in carbon capture and power generation technologies.

With Woodside Energy estimating these projects will cost in excess of $80 per tonne, Jarden expects bringing costs down is critical to sanctioning projects.

The Neutral rating and target price of $29.00 are retained.

This report was published on March 13, 2024.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $30.25 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.53, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 171.68 cents and EPS of 215.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 197.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 185.35 cents and EPS of 233.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.3, implying annual growth of -10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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