Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 04, 2024

This story features APPEN LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APX   ASL   CCP   COL (2)   CTD (3)   CTT   CVV   CXL   DRR   DTL   EXP   GOR (2)   IGO   JBH (2)   JHX   KCN   LRK (2)   LYC   MAP   MIN   NIC   ORG (2)   PLS   RWL   SMI   TRJ   UNI (2)   WES  

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $1.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Speculative Buy rating on Appen post the recent $50m equity raising.

The company also reported 3Q2024 revenue growth of 35.6% to $54.2m and achieved a higher gross margin of 41%, up from prior quarters.

The broker highlights positive EBITDA was reported for 3Q and cash flow improved with a pro forma cash balance of US$62m.

Management offered updated 2024 guidance showing a 1% revenue increase, and FY25-26 EBITDA forecasts are revised upward. 

Target price lifts to $2.35 from $1.20.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.43
If APX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.56.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 112.94.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASL    ANDEAN SILVER LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.32

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ASL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes recent drilling at the Cerro Bayo project in Chile revealed high-grade silver assays, including 3m at 864g/t AgEq near the mill, supporting a potential resource increase above 100Moz AgEq in the next update due in 1Q2025 for Andean Silver.

A third drill rig will be added in November, aiming to expand the resource further with additional rigs considered for 2025.

The broker highlights the company’s $31m cash position supports its exploration strategy

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained. Target $2.85 unchanged.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: $1.525
If ASL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCP    CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $17.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CCP)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes Credit Corp’s 1Q25 trading update reflecting 12% year-on-year growth in US collections, driven by strong productivity and a streamlined headcount.

Australian debt-buying collections have stabilised, the analyst notes, while Australian lending shows steady demand with a decline of -6% in new customer volumes compared to the prior year.

Management’s FY25 net profit after tax guidance remains at $90-100m, with an anticipated 17% growth mid-point.

Canaccord Genuity remains Buy rated with $20.70 target.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Target price is $20.70 Current Price is $17.17 Difference: $3.53
If CCP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.33, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.0, implying annual growth of 90.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.5, implying annual growth of 13.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $17.61

Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes Coles Group’s Q1 FY25 update showed strong supermarket execution with comparable sales growth, despite intensifying competition.

Coles’ “fewer, bigger, better” promotional strategy supports 2Q25 earnings and holiday period projections, with plans to launch 400 new Own Label lines, the analyst highlights.

While bulk sales rebounded with improved supply chains, the liquor segment faced margin erosion from negative like-for-like sales.

Capital expenditure for supply chain upgrades is expected to increase, slightly impacting on return on capital invested and the broker’s earnings forecasts.

Target price slips to $18.50 from $19.10. No change to Neutral rating.  FY25-27 EBIT forecasts remain largely unchanged.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.61 Difference: $0.89
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.61, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

Coles Group reported 1Q25 sales growth of 3.5% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but consistent with Woolworths’ performance, the Jarden analyst observes.

The company’s “fewer, bigger, better” promotional strategy has supported its market position amid cross-shopping trends, with customers visiting more stores.

Management announced a third automated distribution centre (ADC), adding -$880m in capex over 4-5 years.

Jarden lowers FY25-FY27 EPS forecasts by -1-3% due to increased costs, though the company is expected to benefit from modest gross margin gains.

Neutral rating maintained. Target price slips to $16.90 from $17.10.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $17.61 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.61, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 83.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 84.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 79.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD    CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $11.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTD)) as Buy (1) –

Corporate Travel Management’s 1Q25 update highlights stable performance in A&NZ and US segments, offsetting weaknesses in Europe and Asia due to potential government budget cuts and pricing deflation, particularly in the UK, Canaccord Genuity explains.

Despite these challenges, the company won a position on the US Federal Government panel and secured a three-year extension with the UK Government as a sole provider, with new client wins valued at over $0.4bn in FY25.

Management retained FY25 EBITDA guidance at $210m, though consensus may adjust downward based on recent UK budget constraints, the broker suggests.

No change to Buy rating and $14.40 target.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $11.80 Difference: $2.6
If CTD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 19.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.70 cents and EPS of 75.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.40 cents and EPS of 86.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.9, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CTD)) as Overweight (2) –

Corporate Travel Management reported 1Q25 update and Jarden notes the results reflect the company’s progress towards meeting its targets.

This should be achieved with stable performance across key regions including North America and A&NZ, despite risks from potential budget cuts in the UK government contract, with the broker pointing out the latter accounts for roughly 10% of global revenue.

Corporate Travel Management won over $400m in new contracts and continues to make strides in its Atlas project, maintaining a high client retention rate of 97%.

Jarden has modestly lowered FY25 EPS forecasts by approximately -2% due to expected reductions in UK government spending.

The analyst believes the company remains well-positioned to achieve its 5-year goal of doubling EPS, supported by productivity gains and expansion in under-penetrated markets.

No change to Overweight rating and $14 target price.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.80 Difference: $2.2
If CTD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 19.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 75.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.9, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((CTD)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons notes Corporate Travel Management provided an AGM trading update showing that 1H25 performance is on track, with strong revenue growth and margin expansion in regions outside Europe.

The broker highlights the European segment faces potential headwinds due to anticipated UK government spending cuts, triggering a -10% reduction in forecast UK government BAU revenue.

Despite these challenges, Wilsons observes management reaffirmed its FY25 guidance, targeting 30% EBITDA growth in 2H25, aided by -$10m in annualised cost savings from Project Atlas and the January 2025 rollout of Sleep Space.

The broker reduced its FY25 EBITDA forecast by -3% and slightly lowered the price target to $12.26, maintaining a Market Weight rating.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $12.26 Current Price is $11.80 Difference: $0.46
If CTD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 19.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.40 cents and EPS of 78.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.70 cents and EPS of 86.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.9, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTT    CETTIRE LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.43

Petra Capital rates ((CTT)) as Hold (3) –

Cettire reported 1Q25 net revenue growth of 22% year-on-year and Petra Capital observes the quarter marks a slowdown compared to previous periods as the company prioritised profitability.

The broker notes delivered margin for the quarter declined to 17%, down from over 20% a year ago, impacted by increased promotional activity.

EBITDA at $2.0m is down significantly from $8.7m in 1Q24 but Petra highlights there’s a slight improvement from $1.6m in 4Q24.

Cettire ended the quarter with $66m in net cash, up from $59m last year, and its corporate governance was strengthened with the addition of two independent directors, Petra observes.

Hold rating retained. The price target lifts to $1.38 from $1.15 due to “improved risk parameters”.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CTT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.43.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVV    CARAVEL MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.16

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CVV)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Regarding Caravel Minerals, Canaccord Genuity notes the Caravel Copper Project, with an estimated 3mt copper resource, is advancing.

The company has funding secured for definitive feasibility study and completion by late 2025, including water access agreements and ongoing environmental work.

Valuation adjustments reflect updated financing assumptions, while potential M&A in the copper sector provides strategic optionality for Caravel Minerals, the broker comments.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price weakens to 60c from 65c.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.44
If CVV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 275% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.20.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

Calix has paused its lithium mid-stream demonstration project with Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) due to challenging lithium market conditions, although 60% of the plant construction is complete.

Canaccord Genuity notes revenues from this project are now expected to start in FY27 rather than FY26.

The broker lowers FY26 revenues to $42m, with EBITDA at a loss of -$58m, down from a loss of -$2.5m previously.

No change to Buy rating and $2.40 target price.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $1.51
If CXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 170% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $3.77

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRR)) as Buy (1) –

Deterra Royalties reported 1Q25 revenue of $53m which was below Canaccord Genuity’s expectations due to lower realised iron ore prices and a decline in Trident gold offtake revenue.

The broker highlights Deterra’s main income remains from BHP Group’s ((BHP)) Mining Area C, contributing 96% of revenue.

The broker made minor revisions to its iron ore price forecast, expecting US$98/t in FY25, while longer-term growth may come from royalties at Thacker Pass, supported by recent funding milestones.

Management lowered FY25 EBITDA guidance by -3%. Buy rating and $4.70 target price unchanged.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.77 Difference: $0.93
If DRR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting upside of 16.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of -7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $7.38

Jarden rates ((DTL)) as Neutral (3) –

Data#3 reported 1Q25 update which aligned with Jarden’s expectations, showing stable guidance and a reduced risk of downgrades, with EBIT growth projected at 6.7% year-on-year.

The analyst notes despite challenges in hardware, the company’s strengths in software and services are expected to drive medium-term growth, particularly through AI adoption and a strong position in Copilot licenses.

Jarden emphasises Gartner forecasts increased IT spending in Australia and anticipates the trend will suppot Data#3’s growth outlook.

Data#3 is Neutral rated with $8.54 target price. The analyst’s EPS estimates for FY25-27 remain unchanged.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $8.54 Current Price is $7.38 Difference: $1.16
If DTL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 18.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EXP    EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EXP)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes softer expectations for Skydive Australia volumes for Experience Co.

The company’s 1Q25 results showed mixed performance, with Adventure Experiences revenue up by 8% year-over-year, while Skydive was down -2% due to adverse weather and weaker domestic demand.

Despite these challenges, the broker notes  EBITDA rose by 59% to $3.6m, driven by cost management.

Canaccord Genuity believes FY25 is expected to be a recovery year, supported by rising inbound tourism and a strategic review update at the November AGM.

Buy rated. Target price moves to 23c from 24c.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $0.23 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.095
If EXP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.53.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating on Gold Road Resources, raising the target price to $2.45 from $2.35, following a positive September quarter.

The company reported 3Q2024 production of 34koz at all-in-sustaining-costs of $2,551/oz, above forecasts due to higher material movement costs.

Management retained production guidance for 2024 at 145-152.5koz, with costs expected to decrease as mine grade ore becomes more accessible in 4Q2024.

The broker notes the balance sheet shows net cash of $109m, supporting ongoing operations.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.475
If GOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 56.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis notes Gold Road reported 3Q24 production of 68.8koz, slightly ahead of expectations, with attributable gold sales of 32.5koz at an average price of $3,719/oz.

AISC rose to $2,551/oz, partly due to a one-off -$10m payment related to an historical contractor claim.

While 2024 guidance remains at 290-305koz, the broker forecasts a modest shortfall, revising its estimate to 276.3koz.

Moelis raised its price target to $2.40 from $2.30, citing improvements in mine efficiency and higher cash margins. A Buy rating is maintained, with minor upward adjustments to financial forecasts for 2025.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.425
If GOR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 56.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $5.31

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden observes IGO Limited’s Greenbushes Chemical Grade Plant No.3 (CGP3) experienced a three-month delay, pushing initial production to the second quarter of 2026, with capex revised to -$880m.

The FY26 production forecast decreased slightly to 1.707Mt due to the delay, explain the analysts, noting the delay is disappointing but not overly material.

The broker attributes capex increases to prior engineering costs adjustments and inflationary pressures. It’s felt CGP4 might face a similar delay, with both capex and production potentially deferred.

Jarden raises the target price to $8.28 from $8.21 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $8.28 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $2.97
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of 440.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 262.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 835.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $81.83

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs observes JB Hi-Fi’s Q1 FY25 sales were better than expectations across all segments on first take, with JB Hi-Fi Australia reporting 4.9% growth, JB Hi-Fi New Zealand up 19.6% year-on-year, and The Good Guys increasing sales by 5.3%.

The analyst notes this strong performance reflects market share gains, particularly in tech categories like mobile and computers, despite broader retail headwinds.

While Goldman Sachs highlights near-term sales trends are positive, JB Hi-Fi faces longer-term risks from a potential economic slowdown and increased competitive pressures, the analyst states.

Sell rated. Target price $54.40.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $54.40 Current Price is $81.83 Difference: minus $27.43 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $76.30, suggesting downside of -5.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 251.00 cents and EPS of 385.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 419.9, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 303.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 390.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 443.8, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden notes that JB Hi-Fi’s first-quarter update showed 5% like-for-like sales growth in Australia, led by demand for premium iPhones and IT products.

The New Zealand performance was also strong, note the analysts, with a return to positive like-for-like growth. Further, The Good Guys experienced robust appliance demand.

While forecasting FY25-27 EBIT growth of 2-3%, Jarden remains cautious due to rising competition from direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels.

Jarden raises the target price to $68.00 from $64.80 but retains an Underweight rating.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $68.00 Current Price is $81.83 Difference: minus $13.83 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $76.30, suggesting downside of -5.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 256.00 cents and EPS of 393.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 419.9, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 303.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 264.00 cents and EPS of 405.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 443.8, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $48.02

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Jarden has downgraded James Hardie Industries to an Overweight rating from Buy and lowered the target price to $52.00 from $54.00 due to heightened short-term earnings risks.

The analyst points to the US housing market outlook which has softened, with affordability concerns and interest rate volatility affecting buyer sentiment, especially in key regions like Texas and Florida.

Rising commodity costs, notably pulp and cement, are further pressuring the company’s margins.

Jarden lowers FY25 net income forecast to the lower end of management’s guidance range.

Despite short-term headwinds, Jarden remains positive on the company’s long-term growth potential, citing a strong position in the US repair and remodel market and an under-levered balance sheet.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $48.02 Difference: $3.98
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.98, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 222.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 256.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 271.7, implying annual growth of 20.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KCN    KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KCN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Kingsgate Consolidated reported 1Q25 production of 16koz of gold at all-in-sustaining-costs of US$2,065/oz, slightly above expectations due to reliance on low-grade stockpiles.

Canaccord Genuity notes production is expected to increase in subsequent quarters, lowering costs as the company benefits from new fleet efficiencies and higher-grade ore.

Management guided to FY25 production of 80-90koz with costs of US$1,650-1,800/oz. The balance sheet is anticipated to shift to a net cash position by June 2025.

Speculative Buy and $3.40 target unchanged.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $1.805
If KCN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.60.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.20.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes Lark Distilling Co’s 1Q25 results show net sales of $3.4m, up 7% year-on-year, driven by stronger direct-to-consumer and export sales despite softer B2B performance.

The recent equity raising reduced debt exposure, with cash reserves now at $25.6m. Management is focusing on growth initiatives including brand restaging and expanding export channels.

The broker incorporates higher operating costs for brand investments, lowering EBITDA and net profit expectations for FY25/FY26.

Speculative Buy rating. Target is lifted to $1.50 from $1.20.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.3
If LRK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((LRK)) as Hold (3) –

Lark Distilling reported 1Q25 net sales of $3.4m, a 10% year-on-year increase, and Moelis points out growth was primarily driven by direct-to-consumer (D2C) channels and enhanced by seasonal campaigns like Father’s Day.

Export sales, including shipments to Indonesia, contributed $0.2m, while Global Travel Retail added $0.3m.

Despite steady whisky reserves at 2.5m litres, the broker notes cash outflows rose to -$1.0m in 1Q25, reflecting increased operational costs.

The broker maintains a Hold rating, raising the price target to $1.25 from $1.00, with incremental sales forecast upgrades of 0.6%-1.3% for FY25-27, driven by expanded international market presence.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.05
If LRK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.75.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 26.09.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $7.78

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LYC)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Lynas Rare Earths’ September quarter results show NdPr/REO production of 1.67kt/3.6kt, respectively, which are aligned with forecasts, but sales lagged due to a weaker product mix, Canaccord Genuity highlights.

Revenue reached $128m, below consensus due to slower Kalgoorlie ramp-up and capex impacts from the Mt Weld expansion.

Despite a recent 20% increase in NdPr prices, Canaccord Genuity notes Lynas continues to match production to demand, moderating Kalgoorlie’s ramp to complete the expansion by mid-2025. 

Target price lifts to $7.50 from $7.40. The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.78 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 73.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 146.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAP    MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAP)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Microba Life Sciences’ 1Q25 revenue was $3.65m, down from the prior quarter due to seasonality, though October showed record sales, driven by its MetaXplore and MetaPanel diagnostics.

The partnership with Sonic is expected to boost test referrals among clinicians, with significant growth anticipated as reimbursement opportunities develop. Cash on hand is $16.4m, supporting near-term growth.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 44c are retained.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.27
If MAP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 159% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $40.61

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Jarden notes Mineral Resources sold its Perth Basin gas assets to Hancock Prospecting for up to $1.1bn, with an upfront payment of $804m.

However, production delays and a weaker spodumene market led to a -24% downgrade in FY25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts.

The gas transaction provides a liquidity boost but leaves longer-term balance sheet challenges unresolved, highlights the broker.

Jarden reduces the target price to $31.20 from $32.00 and retains a Sell rating.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: minus $9.41 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.79, suggesting upside of 18.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 142.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -69.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 217.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 209.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NIC    NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NIC)) as Hold (3) –

Nickel Industries 3Q2024 results show a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline in pig iron production, mainly due to scheduled maintenance, with EBITDA reaching US$109m, slightly below consensus expectations, Canaccord Genuity notes.

The Hengjaya mine saw significant improvement, with a 94% increase in ore mined and a 52% rise in EBITDA.

However, cash reserves fell by -46% to US$193m due to debt servicing and acquisitions, resulting in net debt estimated to peak at US$1,047m by 3Q2025, the broker explains.

No change to Hold rating and $1 target.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.08
If NIC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 19.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 115.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $9.72

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORG)) as Buy (1) –

Origin Energy’s Q1 FY25 results showed APLNG revenue at $2.64bn, -3% below estimates due to lower realised LNG prices, though production remained steady.

Goldman Sachs notes Energy Markets reported 9.3 TWh electricity sales, up 2% year-on-year, primarily from Queensland retail sales, while external gas sales volumes declined -2% due to reduced Victorian business sales.

Octopus Energy continued strong growth, adding 600k new customers, with Kraken reaching 62m customer accounts.

Goldman Sachs lifts FY25 EPS by 19% due to lower depreciation and tax expenses, while EBITDA projections for FY25-27 saw minor falls of -1%.

Target price weakens to $10.30 from $10.45. No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $0.58
If ORG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.59, suggesting upside of 7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.2, implying annual growth of -3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.0, implying annual growth of -13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden explains Origin Energy’s 1Q25 trading update showed steady performance from APLNG, with increased domestic gas sales offsetting a dip in LNG export prices.

Retail electricity and gas volumes rose 5% and 4% year-over-year, respectively, supported by strong customer growth.

Octopus Energy continues rapid expansion, adding 600,000 accounts in 1Q25. 

Management retained FY25 guidance. The broker lifts EPS forecasts by 10% to 28% for FY25-FY27 due to lower depreciation/amortisation charges and reduced income tax expense.

No change to Neutral rating and target price of $9.90.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $9.72 Difference: $0.18
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.59, suggesting upside of 7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 89.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.2, implying annual growth of -3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 75.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.0, implying annual growth of -13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

In its September quarter update, Pilbara Minerals reported production of 220kt, with realised spodumene prices falling -19% to US$682/t.

Canaccord Genuity highlights unit costs rose by 3% to $606/t, while cash decreased -17% to $1.35bn.

To preserve its balance sheet, management paused its Calix ((CXL)) joint venture and will place the higher-cost Ngungaju plant into care and maintenance.

Management lowered FY25 production guidance to 700-740kt, with expected cash flow benefits of $200m from these cost-saving measures

No change to Buy rating and $3.90 target price.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $1.01
If PLS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting downside of -1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 96.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.5, implying annual growth of -94.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 572.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 1360.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWL    RUBICON WATER LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.34

Wilsons rates ((RWL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Rubicon Water announced positive developments, generating positive operating cash flow year-to-date for FY25, including $5.1m in aged debtor receipts from its Asia segment.

The broker highlights the company secured its largest contract to date in EMEA, valued at $5.8m, awarded through a public tender in Italy, reinforcing its commercial traction in Europe.

Additionally, Rubicon signed an MOU as part of its Chinese strategic review, while welcoming delegations from Egypt, China, and Japan to review its TCC technology.

The broker remains optimistic, citing strong prospects for medium-term revenue growth, and retains an Overweight rating. Earnings forecasts are currently under review.

Wilsons only initiated coverage circa two weeks ago.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.07
If RWL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMI    SANTANA MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SMI)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Speculative Buy rating on Santana Minerals Limited and raises the target price to $1.16 from $1.13, reflecting steady progress on its Bendigo-Ophir Gold Project.

The broker notes during 3Q2024 the company completed resource validation drilling, confirming high-grade zones at Rise and Shine, which bolsters the project’s economic outlook.

Santana Minerals has also secured land for infrastructure and gained ‘Fast-Track Project’ status under New Zealand’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, streamlining permitting for potential mid-2025 approvals.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Target price is $1.16 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If SMI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 70.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRJ    TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TRJ)) as Buy (1) –

Trajan Group has retained FY25 guidance despite challenges in the pharma segment and lower capital equipment demand, notes Canaccord Genuity, with anticipated revenue between $160-$165m and core EBITDA of $17-$19m.

Strength in MOSH/MOAH food testing offsets weaker segments, with the broker commenting recent updates show optimism in a second-half recovery for Pharma.

The broker believes Trajan Group is positioned for potential growth in the food/beverage testing sector and in Asia, while trading at a discount relative to its global peers.

No change to Buy rating and $1.40 target price.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.23 Difference: $0.17
If TRJ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 175.71.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.31.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $7.80

Petra Capital rates ((UNI)) as Buy (1) –

At its AGM, Universal Store reported strong FYTD sales growth to 27 October 2024 and Petra Capital observes direct-to-customer sales are up 19.3% year-on-year alongside a steady gross margin at 60.7%.

Increased sales were driven by private brand performance, particularly from PS, Neovision, Luck & Trouble, and Worship, the broker observes.

The company has reaffirmed guidance for 9 to 15 new store openings in FY25, with seven stores expected to open before Christmas.

Despite a 1% increase in CODB% due to inflation, the broker notes upside potential in LFL sales and gross margin.

Retaining a Buy rating, the broker raised the price target to $8.25 from $7.50, driven by stronger sales forecasts and a higher sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) multiple.

This report was published on October 31, 2024.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $0.45
If UNI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.69, suggesting upside of 10.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.40 cents and EPS of 52.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.8, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (1) –

Universal Store reported continued top-line momentum, with sales in the Universal Store and Perfect Stranger brands up 15% and 34% year-on-year, respectively, for weeks 9-17 of FY25.

As per Wilsons’ commentary, the gross margin improved, driven by a shift toward private-label products, though investments in headcount caused some operating margin compression.

Guidance for new store openings remains on track, with 9-15 additional stores planned.

The broker has slightly reduced its price target to $8.30 from $8.40, reflecting modest downgrades to forecasts due to increased cost-of-doing-business (CODB).

The Overweight rating is maintained as November/December trading is anticipated to drive significant performance.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $0.5
If UNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.69, suggesting upside of 10.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.80 cents and EPS of 46.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 59.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.8, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $66.62

Jarden rates ((WES)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden comments Wesfarmers’ 1Q AGM update highlighted steady year-to-date sales, with strong growth at Bunnings and Officeworks offset by weaker trends in Kmart due to consumer spending shifts.

Updates to the broker’s FY25 earnings forecasts reflect a -3% reduction, driven by softer Kmart sales and weaker spodumene prices impacting the Industrial segment.

Jarden views Wesfarmers’ conglomerate structure as beneficial for future expansion in health and consumer goods.

The broker maintains a target price of $61.20 and a Neutral rating.

This report was published on November 1, 2024.

Target price is $61.20 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: minus $5.42 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $65.00, suggesting downside of -2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 202.00 cents and EPS of 231.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 263.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.9, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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