Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 23, 2024

This story features AURA ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEE

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AEE   APA   ARF   CCR   CIA   JHX   KAR   LNW   MYR (2)   NUZ   PDN   PEN   PMT   RKN   S32   SMI   VAU (2)   VGL   WGX  

AEE    AURA ENERGY LIMITED

Energy – Overnight Price: $0.14

Petra Capital rates ((AEE)) as Buy (1) –

Aura Energy released an updated ore reserve at the Tiris uranium project showing a 49% increase that follows a 55% increase assessed in June. Petra Capital says this highlights the potential for project and life-of-mine expansion.

The company also released an option study looking at expansion to 3-4m pounds per annum from year three, up from Petra’s base case of 2m pounds. The broker sees potential for a production scale beyond 4m pounds, given the shallow nature of mining.

Target price raised to 36c from 33c. Buy rating maintained.

Petra notes one significant near-term catalyst is project funding which is estimated at -US$230m. The company is actively engaging with debt and strategic investors, with final investment decision expected in 1Q2025.

This report was published on December 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.22
If AEE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.15

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) –

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released its draft decision saying it would not accept APA Group’s application to convert Basslink to a regulated asset.

In response, APA said it would operate Basslink as a non-contracted market network service provider if AER’s final decision is unchanged from the draft.

In Jarden’s view, APA’s stance will likely result in an increase in earnings in the medium term but a possible earnings reduction further out following the start-up of Marinus Link. 

The broker reduced the target price to $8.30 from $8.45 due to higher cost estimates, partly offset by the impact of the Northern Territory pipeline investment. Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.15 Difference: $1.15
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.79, suggesting upside of 7.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -77.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 26.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.86

Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) –

Arena REIT published 1H25 market update showing increased capital deployment, with $120m of operating assets acquired versus $58m flagged at equity raising. 

This includes $85m in childcare centres at an initial yield of 6.1%, and a medical workers’ accommodation village in Bendigo on a 19-year lease to the Victorian government at an initial yield of 6.2%.

Moelis has raised Arena REIT’s medium-term earnings profile to reflect increased capital deployment.

The broker notes the REIT retains ample balance sheet capacity with the opportunity to deploy $250m and gearing below 30%. Capital deployment this year was done at an average net initial yield of around 6.1% versus marginal cost of debt of 5.8%, the broker observes.

Target price increased slightly to $3.95 from $3.85 and Hold rating maintained.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $0.09
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 11.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCR    CREDIT CLEAR LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $0.34

Petra Capital rates ((CCR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes ASIC’s data on company insolvencies for the first five months of FY25 point to full-year insolvencies of 16,500, up from around 11,000 in FY24.

Separate data on personal insolvencies for the September quarter showed a rise of 3,307 new insolvencies, up from 3,108 in the same period in 2023.

Both data benefit Credit Clear and the broker sees the company as well-placed for a stronger operating result this year and to benefit from continued macro tailwinds flowing into FY26.

Buy rating unchanged and target price remains at 60c.

This report was published on December 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.255
If CCR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 345.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $5.69

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights Champion Iron’s proposed partnership with Nippon Steel and Sojitz for commercialising the Kami high-grade iron ore project.

Parties are still negotiating but could generate CA$245m for Champion Iron in return for Nippon receiving a 30% equity interest and Sojitz a 19% interest, with Champion as the operator.

Management also announced repairs to the train loading facility have been completed. The broker notes an estimated 16 days of production stockpiled, or 600kt of concentrate, resulting in inventories of 3.4mt.

The forecast impact on Jarden’s EPS estimate is -7c. Target price increases 6% to $7.26 from the Kami transaction. Overweight rated.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $7.26 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $1.57
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.76 cents and EPS of 44.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.48 cents and EPS of 43.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $50.84

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes recovery in new single-family housing construction and renovation remains uncertain due to continued macro headwinds but it is now seeing some near-term forecast improvements.

The broker is looking for price discipline at James Hardie along with efficiencies and some easing of cost headwinds over coming quarters. In particular, the broker views the peak for pulp fibre costs to have passed, though the numbers remain elevated.

Price target raised to $56 from $54 and Overweight rating maintained. 

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $56.00 Current Price is $50.84 Difference: $5.16
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $59.84, suggesting upside of 17.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 227.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 258.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 263.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 301.8, implying annual growth of 16.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.29

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Karoon Energy lowered total production guidance for 2024 to 10.1-10.3m barrels of oil equivalent from 10.5-10.8 due to downgrades at both its Brazilian and Gulf of Mexico projects.

Production at the Brazilian project has been shut due to failure in two of the 16 anchor chains of the vessel. The Gulf of Mexico guidance was lowered due to an extended maintenance shut-down period as a result of Hurricane Rafael and a slower-than-anticipated ramp-up back to full production.

Jarden notes while the downgrade is small, it expects the market to remain cautious on production expectations in 2025 until a formal plan to resolve the ongoing challenges at both assets is announced and executed.

Target cut to $2.00 from $2.15. Buy retained.

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.705
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 67.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.54 cents and EPS of 33.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -17.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $139.47

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has lowered Light & Wonder’s Q4 forecasts for the gaming business and added additional corporate costs. 

In case of SciPlay, after a soft Q3 result the broker sees an opportunity to either reinvest for growth or expand margins.

Earnings performance of iGaming has been underwhelming, the broker observes, but it sees Light & Wonder as well-placed, with its
first-mover advantage position, first-party content and strategically attractive aggregation.

The broker has revised near-term earnings forecasts, but increased the target price to $179 from $173 due to lower AUD/USD input. Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $179.00 Current Price is $139.47 Difference: $39.53
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $174.83, suggesting upside of 27.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 526.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 381.1, implying annual growth of 41.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 895.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 560.7, implying annual growth of 47.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR    MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $1.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage of Myer Holdings with a Buy rating and target price of $1.25.

The broker reckons Myer has a broad and targetable audience but questions whether this can be amplified through standalone strategies.

In its view, successfully bedding down the Just Group ((JST)) merger announced in October and extracting at least the $30m of synergies will be paramount to sentiment in the next two years.

This report was published on November 29, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.055
If MYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.38.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has fleshed out important information from Myer Holdings’ explanatory memorandum published ahead of the shareholder vote for the acquisition of Premier Investments’ ((PMV)) apparel brands business.

The broker also notes Kroll’s independent expert report considers the acquisition to be fair and reasonable.

No change to the broker’s forecasts and hence target price is unchanged at $1.25. Buy rating maintained

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.055
If MYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.38.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUZ    NEURIZON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.17

Petra Capital rates ((NUZ)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital has initiated coverage on Neurizon Therapeutics with a Buy rating and target price of 47c.

Neurizon’s drug NUZ-001, targeting the most common form of motor neuron disease Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis, is entering the Healey platform trial supported by compelling data, the analyst comments.

If positive, Petra believes the company could apply for accelerated marketing approval and strategic interest could also heighten.

Petra estimates US$1.2bn in sales translating to US$201m un-risked royalties at peak. The broker is modelling a US$623m licensing deal after the Healey trial completion.

This report was published on December 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.3
If NUZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 176% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.07.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $7.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) –

Paladin Energy received final regulatory clearance under the Investment Canada Act for the proposed acquisition of Fission Uranium. Canaccord Genuity expects the transaction to close by early January 2025.

The broker anticipated this outcome and hence left the $15.20 target price and Buy rating unchanged.

In the broker’s view, the transaction will result in a combined entity that will possess the third-largest resource (among globally listed companies) with a high-growth pipeline, lower cost of funding and long-term optionality.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $7.44
If PDN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.88, suggesting upside of 51.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 298.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEN    PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $1.26

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEN)) as Buy (1) –

Peninsula Energy announced the official production restart at selected mine areas in its Lance project in the US after a five-year hiatus. The company expects the first U308 production by early March 2025 following the construction of the yellow cake filtration and drying circuits.

Canaccord Genuity has opted to remain conservative and forecasts the first yellow cake in the second half of 2025, leaving first-half production as a potential upside.

Target price $3.20 following recent 20-for-1 share consolidation. Rating remains Speculative Buy.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $1.94
If PEN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 154% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMT    PATRIOT BATTERY METALS INC

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PMT)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity views Volkswagen Group’s 9.9% equity investment in Patriot Battery Metals plus offtake contract as a reflection of the long-term potential of Patriot’s Shaakachiuwaanaan project in Quebec.

The CA$69m investment also includes a memorandum of understanding to explore financing and downstream opportunities. The broker believes the funding provides medium-term certainty over continued resource growth and project development. 

Target price lowered to $0.90 from $1.05 to reflect risk adjustments and equity dilution. Speculative Buy rating maintained

This report was published on December 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.51
If PMT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 97.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 390.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 443.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RKN    RECKON LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $0.58

Moelis rates ((RKN)) as Buy (1) –

Reckon announced the acquisition of Adelaide-based Cashflow Manager for -$8.75m which, according to Moelis, aligns with the company’s strategy and will lift its earnings.

The broker estimates the acquisition will deliver attractive cash flows of $1-2m annually and can be used to retire debt.

The broker notes the company’s strategy remains focused on migrating all customers onto the Reckon One platform over time, which would be easier due to the price and functionality similarity with Cashflow Manager.

Target price raised to 76c from 67c. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on December 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.18
If RKN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.34

Canaccord Genuity rates ((S32)) as Sell (5) –

South32 announced road blockages were cleared in Mozambique following civil unrest, enabling alumina to be transported to its Mozal aluminium smelter from the port.

The company also said it reduced amperage to the plant to preserve raw materials, which Canaccord Genuity sees as a risk of escalation in the unrest.

Further disruption would lead to the shutdown of the pot line or the smelter entirely, curtailing production further and likely leading to significant future restart costs, according to the broker. 

The broker considers this risk to be partially offset by the sale of any unconsumed alumina from the Worsley Alumina unit in the market at a premium to average price.

No change to Sell rating. Target price remains at $2.35.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.75 cents and EPS of 10.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.25 cents and EPS of 11.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMI    SANTANA MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.46

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SMI)) as Buy (1) –

New Zealand passed the third reading of the Fast-Track Approvals Bill (FTB) aimed at streamlining the process to fast-track projects with a potential approval timeline of around six months. The passing marks the final formal barrier before Royal Assent.

Canaccord Genuity notes this rounds up three major potential catalysts for Santana Minerals this quarter, including a resource and exploration update and a high-margin pre-feasibility study on the Bendigo-Ophir gold project.

The broker expects Santana to make its FTB application in the 1Q25 which, if successful, could see first gold production in the first half of 2027.

Canaccord Genuity maintains its target price of $1.22 and Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on December 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.76
If SMI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 165% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.32

Jarden rates ((VAU)) as Overweight (2) –

Vault Minerals has approved the upgrade of the King of the Hills plant, with capacity expected to rise to 6mtpa at an estimated cost of $80m over a 15-month construction period.

Jarden highlights a “notional” rise in nameplate capacity of 20%, with the plant already operating at 5.6mtpa in 4Q2024.

No change to the Overweight rating and 42c target price.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.1
If VAU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.81.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.70.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Vault Minerals received board approval to invest -$80m in expanding the King of the Hills (KOTH) processing facility at the Leonara operations to 6m tonnes per annum (Mtpa), a 20% increase from 2024.

Petra Capital had assumed a KOTH throughput of 5.5Mtpa, so the proposed expansion represents a 9% lift to its forecasts. The broker increased group production by 20k ounces per annum from FY27 and reduced costs (AISC) by -4%.

Target price raised marginally to 49c from 48c. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on December 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.17
If VAU meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.96.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VGL    VISTA GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.78

Jarden rates ((VGL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden anticipates a cloud transition earnings cash margin of 31% for Vista International.

For 2024, the broker expects Vista to report revenue at the lower end of the guidance range between NZ$148mNZ$153m, with cloud going live in the latter part of the year.

A boost from Moana 2 and Glicked is also expected towards the year-end. Box office is forecast to decline by -6% year-on-year, which is below original expectations.

The target price is raised to NZ$3.05 from NZ$2.45, driven by an acceleration in cloud uptake. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on December 19, 2024.

Current Price is $2.78. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1519.13.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 112.23.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.89

Petra Capital rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Westgold Resources’ completed a scoping study evaluating the potential expansion of the Fortnum Gold Operation.

Management identified a potential 10-year life-of-mine (LOM) plan based on the expansion of existing Starlight underground operation plus a restart of historical open pits at Starlight, Nathan’s and Yarlarweelor.

Petra Capital highlights the Fortnum expansion project sends a strong signal there are additional organic growth opportunities across the company’s portfolio and development assets.

The broker’s base case is a four-year LOM with a total gold production of around 250,000 ounces. In the expanded Fortnum scenario, Petra forecasts group production lifting to 550,000 ounces from FY28 from a 531,000 base case.

Target price is unchanged at $3.82, though the broker notes an expanded Fortnum would lift it 4.5% to $3.99. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on December 18, 2024.

Target price is $3.82 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.93
If WGX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 49.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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