Daily Market Reports | Dec 23 2024
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AEE APA ARF CCR CIA JHX KAR LNW MYR (2) NUZ PDN PEN PMT RKN S32 SMI VAU (2) VGL WGX
AEE AURA ENERGY LIMITED
Energy - Overnight Price: $0.14
Petra Capital rates ((AEE)) as Buy (1) -
Aura Energy released an updated ore reserve at the Tiris uranium project showing a 49% increase that follows a 55% increase assessed in June. Petra Capital says this highlights the potential for project and life-of-mine expansion.
The company also released an option study looking at expansion to 3-4m pounds per annum from year three, up from Petra's base case of 2m pounds. The broker sees potential for a production scale beyond 4m pounds, given the shallow nature of mining.
Target price raised to 36c from 33c. Buy rating maintained.
Petra notes one significant near-term catalyst is project funding which is estimated at -US$230m. The company is actively engaging with debt and strategic investors, with final investment decision expected in 1Q2025.
This report was published on December 18, 2024.
Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.22
If AEE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 157% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.67.
Forecast for FY26:
Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.67.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
APA APA GROUP
Infrastructure & Utilities - Overnight Price: $7.15
Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) -
The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released its draft decision saying it would not accept APA Group's application to convert Basslink to a regulated asset.
In response, APA said it would operate Basslink as a non-contracted market network service provider if AER's final decision is unchanged from the draft.
In Jarden's view, APA's stance will likely result in an increase in earnings in the medium term but a possible earnings reduction further out following the start-up of Marinus Link.
The broker reduced the target price to $8.30 from $8.45 due to higher cost estimates, partly offset by the impact of the Northern Territory pipeline investment. Overweight rating maintained.
This report was published on December 17, 2024.
Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.15 Difference: $1.15
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.79, suggesting upside of 7.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.09.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -77.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.04.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.3, implying annual growth of 26.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARF ARENA REIT
REITs - Overnight Price: $3.86
Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) -
Arena REIT published 1H25 market update showing increased capital deployment, with $120m of operating assets acquired versus $58m flagged at equity raising.
This includes $85m in childcare centres at an initial yield of 6.1%, and a medical workers' accommodation village in Bendigo on a 19-year lease to the Victorian government at an initial yield of 6.2%.
Moelis has raised Arena REIT's medium-term earnings profile to reflect increased capital deployment.
The broker notes the REIT retains ample balance sheet capacity with the opportunity to deploy $250m and gearing below 30%. Capital deployment this year was done at an average net initial yield of around 6.1% versus marginal cost of debt of 5.8%, the broker observes.
Target price increased slightly to $3.95 from $3.85 and Hold rating maintained.
This report was published on December 19, 2024.
Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.86 Difference: $0.09
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 11.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.53.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of 16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.60 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.20.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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