Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 03, 2025

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

The company is included in ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   ALX   ARX   ASG (2)   AX1   CIA   CMM   GOR   MAC (2)   PLS   PMV   RDY   SFR   VAU (2)  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.23

Jarden rates ((29M)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes 29Metals achieved all FY24 guidance metrics and issued 2025 guidance consistent with its expectations. The highlight was another quarter of free cash flow from the Golden Grove mine, with $18m exceeding the broker’s forecast of $5m. 

Unit cost of US$1.81/lb was 11% above Jarden’s US$1.63/lb estimates, however, with lower-than-forecast sustaining capital, the AISC of US$3.31/lb was only marginally higher than the broker’s US$3.26/lb

The broker’s valuation is based on long-term price forecasts of US$4.50/lb for copper and US$1.30/lb for zinc. 

The only material change made to the valuation was to include the corporate charge allocated to Golden Grove at the asset level, with the offset being a reduction in corporate costs by the same amount.

Overweight rating with 32c target price.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.085
If 29M meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 18.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALX    ATLAS ARTERIA

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $5.07

Jarden rates ((ALX)) as No Rating (-1) –

Jarden notes Atlas Arteria’s 4Q24 update showed traffic and revenue continue to improve with a weighted average of 2.9% and 6.9% for traffic and revenue growth respectively.

Based on FY24 distribution guidance of 40c, the company currently trades on an 8.2% distribution yield, equating to 370bps spread over Australian 10-yr bond yield. Listed peer Transurban ((TCL)) with 4.9% distribution yield trades at a narrower 17bps spread but Atlas’ yield reflects its higher risk profile, Jarden highlights.

Atlas’ traffic result has minimal implication for Transurban, the broker notes. Jarden is under research restriction, so no rating and no target price.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Current Price is $5.07. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.5, implying annual growth of 95.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.58

Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery downgraded FY25 guidance at the 3Q25 result, contrary to Wilson’s expectation of an upgrade. The broker’s expectation was based on the company’s US channel partner Tela’s recent capital raising and its 3Q24 result last year.

The company 3Q25 cash receipt of NZ$19.5m missed the broker’s forecast and the revised FY25 revenue guidance of NZ$81-84m compared with the broker’s NZ$81m.

The broker has de-rated the stock to 3x estimated 2026 EV/revenue from 4.0x. Target price drops to $0.75 from $1.0. Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.17
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 57.65.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 316.94.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.68

Jarden rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (2) –

Autosports Group further downgraded 1H25 guidance (previous one was at November AGM) reflecting worsening new vehicle demand in November and December. With higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures adversely impacting new car demand, Jarden expects demand to improve after multiple rate cuts and a time lag. 

The broker also notes discounting caused by a significant oversupply of new vehicles will likely continue to hamper near-term gross margins. Despite these broader industry factors, the broker retains an Overweight rating as Autosports trades at 6x 12mth forward PE, well below Eagers Automotive ((APE)) at 14x and Peter Warren ((PWR)) at 20x.

The analyst lowered FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by -10% and -15% respectively, resulting in a cut in target price to $2.50 from $2.95.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.825
If ASG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -45.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.60 cents and EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 53.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (1) –

Autosports Group downgraded 1H25 pre-tax profit guidance once again to $20m, citing challenging new vehicle trading conditions in November and December. Recall the company previously lowered guidance in November to $28m.

Wilsons highlights its disappointment given it didn’t make the same assessment from Australian new vehicle sales data but remains confident of a strong recovery in new vehicle gross margins in 2Q25. The broker also reckons trading activity across used vehicle sales, service and parts was implied to be tracking in line with expectations.

The broker will formally update forecasts with 1H25 result on February 20, and as of now, expects an FY25 EPS downgrade of at least -11% or greater if 2H25 expectations are revised down on lower new vehicle sales.

Overweight rating retained. Target price $2.86.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $1.185
If ASG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of -45.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 53.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.19

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Jarden highlights Accent Group’s 1H25 sales growth of 4.6% year on year was lower than the consensus for 7.5% growth. Gross profit margin and expenses were in line with consensus.

The broker is concerned the promotional environment in the footwear market may take longer to resolve than it initially expected. As a result, it lowered FY25 and FY26 EBIT forecasts by -11% and -9% respectively.

Potential near-term catalysts for the stock include discussions with Frasers Group regarding a long-term strategic agreement which the broker views as “very” positive, fewer promotions from competitors, and likely interest rate cuts.

Target price lowered to $2.10 from $2.35 and rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 15.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 25.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $5.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Champion Iron reported a slightly better than expected December quarter result with EBITDA of CA$88m vs its CA$75m forecast, though it was below consensus of CA$97m.

Net debt increased to CA$619m vs broker’s CA$485m estimate, and net finance costs increased to CA$30.5m compared with CA$7.5m in the September quarter, mainly driven by a forex loss from the revaluation of USD-denominated net monetary liabilities.

The broker adjusted FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -15% and 3% respectively after accounting for higher near-term net finance costs, lower higher-grade premiums near-term, and lower freight costs.

Buy rating retained and target price is $7.6.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $5.57 Difference: $2.03
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.16 cents and EPS of 34.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.26.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 22.11 cents and EPS of 72.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.64.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $7.72

Goldman Sachs rates ((CMM)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs highlights Capricorn Metals’ 2Q25 sales of 32koz was above its 30koz forecast on timing. Cash costs of $1,272/oz was 4% above but AISC of $1,490/oz was more in-line. 

Realised pricing of $4,093/oz was marginally above the broker’s $4,080/oz estimate as Capricorn continues to benefit from the partial closure of its hedge book.

Production guidance for FY25 was unchanged at 110-120koz for an AISC of $1,370-1,470/oz, with Goldman’s forecast at 117koz and $1,460/oz respectively. The broker lowered FY25 EPS forecast by -1% and made no change to FY26 forecast.

Neutral rating and $7.55 target price unchanged.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 74.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of -2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.48

Moelis rates ((GOR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Gold Road had pre-reported most headline figures, so the main headline from its 4Q24 report was cost which came in at $1,811/oz, below Moelis’ expectation of $1,952/oz. The other notable update was FY25 guidance and growth outlook, which the broker reckons is conservative compared with realised rates in FY24. 

Cost guidance range of $2,400-2,600/oz was higher than the broker’s $2,436/oz estimate but this includes several one-off items. Still, the analyst lifted sustaining capital costs forecasts to sit within the guidance.

Target price $2.55. Rating lowered to Hold from Buy on recent share price rally.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $0.07
If GOR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 31.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.30 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 60.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    MAC COPPER LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $17.21

Moelis rates ((MAC)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis believes Metals Acquisition’s 4Q24 production report was “solid” with record copper production since the company took ownership of the CSA mine.

The broker notes the company’s FY25 guidance currently has a mid-point of 45.5kt Cu, based on an assumed annual throughput of 1.45Mtpa.

This is considered a conservative outlook and likely to be revised upward upon the release of the updated Reserve and Resource statement in February, once QTSS Upper material is upgraded into reserves, the broker suggests.

The broker made small adjustments to production and cost assumptions for FY25-26. Rating remains Buy and target price is $25.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: $7.79
If MAC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 217.85.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 136.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((MAC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Metals Acquisition’s 4Q24 report produced its best-ever quarter of output from CSA mine, both in terms of volume and unit costs.

Based on the company achieving FY24 guidance and annualising the 4Q output, the broker expects a lift to FY25 guidance at the full-year result in February.

The broker made modest changes to earnings estimates, opting to remain conservative on the cost base for now. 

Rating maintained at Overweight. Target price $24.5. 

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: $7.29
If MAC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 58.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.63.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 111.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.30

Jarden rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes Pilbara Minerals’ production and sales numbers in the December quarter were ahead of its forecasts but the negative was a lack of operating cash generation (-$8m outflow). 

Given the recovery in SC6 lithium prices through the December quarter and into the March quarter, the broker forecasts a return to operating cash generation through 2025.

The broker remains comfortable with its FY25 production forecast of 763kt exceeding Pilbara’s guidance range of 700-740kt, even after allowing for potential disruption in the March quarter from seasonal weather impacts and the commissioning of the P1,000 project. 

Target price increases slightly to $2.6 from $2.5. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.3
If PLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -90.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 287.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of 575.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $23.88

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Neutral (3) –

Following the completion of Premier Investments’ de-merger of fashion brands to Myer ((MYR)) and a softer recent trading update, Jarden has updated its forecasts.

The broker retains Neutral rating but with a positive bias given it sees an opportunity for the company to re-rate as it positions itself as a higher growth, higher return on capital global fashion business. 

The broker has a conservative view on the stock vs its peers, noting the company’s brands are lagging industry growth and there’s a lack of consistency in the Smiggle offshore strategy since covid.

Target price lowered to $23.9 from $29.5

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $23.88 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $31.11, suggesting upside of 30.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 128.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.1, implying annual growth of -12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 120.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RDY    READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.19

Wilsons rates ((RDY)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons is expecting limited surprises at ReadyTech’s result on Feb 26, noting that beyond some implementation delays in recent local government wins, IT Vision cloud conversion is accelerating following the achievement of its final earnout hurdle.

This is highlighted as a positive signal to NRR and group margin expansion for 2H25 and beyond.

The broker has considered a scenario where the company grows revenue at a slower rate, but strictly focuses on delivering 100bps of margin expansion per year. 

This, combined with debt reduction, would see a far more consistent rate EPS growth trajectory of over 15%, leading to $20m of free cash flow per year and supporting fully franked dividend.

The Overweight rating and a target price of $3.70 are retained.

This report was published on January 30, 2025.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.51
If RDY meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.08, suggesting upside of 27.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 148.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 30.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $10.01

Wilsons rates ((SFR)) as Market Weight (3) –

Sandfire Resources’ December quarter report contained many moving parts but overall was broadly in line with market expectations, Wilsons notes. There were few takeaways for the broker to alter its views materially.

The broker highlights the company has brought down net debt by an impressive -US$193m over the past nine months, and estimates the company could move to net cash position around the end of 2026. 

In the absence of attractive internal uses for capital, Wilsons believes there’s a prospect of capital returns to shareholders in 2026, also noting Sandfire’s US$265m franking credit balance may play a role.

Target price of $10.8 and Market Weight rating maintained.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $10.01 Difference: $0.79
If SFR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.28, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 71.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.1, implying annual growth of 64.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.39

Jarden rates ((VAU)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Vault Minerals delivered a solid operational December quarter, Jarden highlights, with a focus on setting up the King of the Hills plant for expansion, a stronger 24 months at Mt Monger and a pick up in planned exploration and resource extension drilling.

In the broker’s view, the company’s operations are increasingly set up for material free cash flow boost over the coming years. 

Jarden has incorporated increases to its gold price forecasts and lower forex, resulting in a 24% increase in valuation and target price.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight and target price raised to 52c from 42c.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.13
If VAU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.65.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis highlights 2Q25 marked a strong period for Vault Minerals, with production in line with its estimate and cost lower, resulting in a slightly better cash and bullion position.

The company tightened FY25 production guidance to 390-410koz from 390-430koz previously, but the broker retained its 395.2koz forecast.

The broker made modest changes to forecasts. Rating remains at Buy and price target is 57c.

Vault Minerals is the broker’s preferred exposure within the gold space, given the combination of valuation support, balance sheet health and confidence around operational delivery.

This report was published on January 29, 2025.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.18
If VAU meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.25.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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