Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 18-04-25

This story features BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGL

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 14 to Friday April 18, 2025
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.55%; Hold 31.93%; Sell 6.51%

For the week ended Friday, April 18, 2025, FNArena tracked eight upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target prices and average earnings forecasts materially outpaced increases as illustrated in the tables below, heavily impacted by downgrades to commodity price forecasts by several brokers.

Coronado Global Resources received the largest downgrade to target and earnings forecast, with Stanmore Resources not far behind, after Ord Minnett lowered its metallurgical coal price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by -11% and -10%, respectively, reflecting weaker steel demand amid US tariff uncertainty and recovering Queensland supply following heavy rainfall.

The broker also reduced its thermal coal forecast for 2025, citing softer demand across Asian markets.

Lotus Resources also appears in the top three placings in the tables for negative change to target and earnings below after Shaw and Partners last week downgraded uranium price forecasts.

While the broker expects Lotus will start production at the Kayelekera Uranium project in the third quarter of FY25, 12 months earlier than expected, there are execution risks including higher-than-expected costs and operations not going as planned.

To reflect these risks, Shaw downgraded its rating for Lotus to Hold from Buy even after lowering the target to 22 cents from 77 cents.

Average targets for lithium stocks Liontown Resources, Pilbara Minerals, and Patriot Battery Minerals also fell due to lower lithium price forecasts by Bell Potter and UBS.

Elsewhere, the average target for Bellevue Gold fell by around -15% following third quarter production issues, lower FY25 guidance, withdrawal of the existing five-year plan, and an equity raise of $156.5m at 85 cents.

After lowering its target for Bellevue to 85 cents from $1.15, Bell Potter upgraded to Buy from Hold, citing potential upside from a de-risked plan supporting delivery of guidance and potential for a near-term M&A premium.

Over the longer-term, the analysts expect further gains from exploration success, mine life extension, and a renewed focus on growth.

The fall in average earnings forecast for Chalice Mining should be largely ignored due to the small forecast numbers involved.

Within Industrials, average targets for Regal Partners, Perpetual, and Netwealth Group fell by -12.9%, -11.4%, and -10.2%, respectively, for largely similar reasons.

Ord Minnett lowered its target for Regal Partners to $3.60 from $4.20 (Morgans to $3.30 from $4.50) following an -8.3% decline in total funds under management (FUM) to $16.5bn in the March quarter, driven by weaker equity markets.

The analyst at Ord Minnett anticipates a further negative FUM impact of approximately -$500m as of April 9, due to US tariff-related volatility since March 31.

Perpetual’s target price also suffered after recording net outflows of -$8.9bn in the March quarter, returning to the peak outflow levels seen in late-2024, noted Citi.

The broker highlighted all the company’s asset management boutiques experienced outflows and performance metrics continue to deteriorate.

While the planned divestment of Wealth Management (and ultimately Corporate Trust) progresses, market-driven revenue pressures and outflows in Asset Management are resulting in value leakage, noted UBS.

The balance sheet is coming under pressure with increasing revenue and cost headwinds, placing the dividend payout ratio at risk, according to the analysts.

Both UBS and Citi downgraded Perpetual to Neutral from Buy.

Specialist financial platform operator Netwealth Group has also suffered from recent wild market movements but management is confident in the medium-term outlook as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/15/has-netwealth-been-punished-enough/

Staying with Industrials, Aussie Broadband’s average earnings forecast fell by nearly -11% last week, but brokers kept their target prices steady. Following an in-line third quarter and management’s strategic update, the analysts remain confident in the outlook as noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/16/aussie-broadband-unveils-ambitious-plans/

Turning to positive changes to average targets, here gold stocks feature prominently, led by gold/copper miner Evolution Mining following consensus-beating March quarter gold production.

Evolution continues to benefit from its effectively unhedged gold position, but valuations are getting stretched due to the recently strong share price, resulting in downgrades to ratings by both Macquarie and Bell Potter. 

For a full explanation of both the March quarter results and the outlook by brokers refer to https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/17/evolution-mining-outperforming-too-much/

Higher gold price forecasts by Ord Minnett and UBS helped lift the average target for Gold Road Resources, while Genesis Minerals benefited from both the new UBS forecast and record third quarter production.

Gold Road Resources, De Grey Mining’s largest shareholder with a 17.3% stake, has now confirmed support for the Northern Star Resources takeover proposal for De Grey.

Bell Potter raised its target for De Grey to $2.58 from $1.97 to align with the implied offer from Northern Star and maintained a Speculative Hold rating.

A data entry glitch resulted in Meteoric Resources appearing atop the positive change to target table, when in fact the average target was lower by week’s end.

The company announced a maiden Mineral Resource Estimate of 398mt at 2,204ppm total rare earth oxides (TREO) for the Barra do Pacu deposit, part of its Caldeira ionic clay rare earths project in Brazil.

This new resource complements the high-grade Capao do Mel deposit, pointed out Bell Potter, and will contribute to the upcoming preliminary feasibility study, now in its final stages.

While maintaining a Speculative Buy rating, the broker lowered its target for Meteoric to 17c from 40c with forecast revisions by the analysts reflecting reduced assumptions for NdPr prices and updated funding requirements. A $280m equity raise at 10 cents is now assumed by the analysts.

The top three upgrades to average earnings forecasts last week went to copper and gold producer AIC Mines and two producers in the Oil & Gas sector, Amplitude Energy and Karoon Energy.

AIC Mines updated the market for increased ore reserves at its Jericho and Eloise deposits, while March quarter production results for Amplitude and Karoon exceeded broker expectations.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.55% of the total, versus 31.93% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.51%.

Upgrade

BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED ((BGL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Bell Potter lowers its target for Bellevue Gold to 85 cents from $1.15 following 3Q production issues, lower FY25 guidance, withdrawal of the existing five-year plan, and an equity raise of $156.5m.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold after the analysts reference the equity capital raising price of 85cps.

Funds of $110.5m from the raise will be used to close 46koz of forward gold sales to the end of 2025, and the balance will increase cash on the balance sheet.

The broker sees upside from the 85c level driven by a de-risked plan supporting delivery of guidance, the potential for a near-term M&A premium. Over the longer-term, further gains are expected from exploration success, mine life extension, and renewed focus on growth.

Management has commenced a Strategic Review to evaluate all avenues for maximising shareholder value, noting past receipt of unsolicited approaches for a change of control transaction.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/2/4

On balance, Morgan Stanley sees Bank of Queensland as making solid progress on the bank’s transformation post the 1H25 results and upgrades the stock to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target price moves to $6.60 from $6.20.

The analyst points to low loan losses as boosting earnings and expects the market will like the results. Cash profit came in above forecast by 5% and 10% above consensus due to the low loan loss charge.

Credit quality has remained “sound” and the CET1 is below Morgan Stanley’s estimate but in line with consensus. A 1c increase in the dividend per share to 18c beat expectations.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts by 7% for FY25 and around 3% for FY26.

The sector view remains In-Line.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/0/0

UBS has revisited the fund manager and platforms sector in light of the volatile geopolitical backdrop and its impact on financial markets.

The broker believes GQG Partners would benefit from market volatility based on its strong track record. This means weaker recent flows that started in late October 2024 would be its trough, with improvements from here.

The broker sees compelling value in GQG Partners, upgrading it to Buy from Neutral.

Target rises to $2.60 from $2.55.

MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/1

UBS has revisited the fund manager and platforms sector in light of the volatile geopolitical backdrop and its impact on financial markets.

The broker believes Magellan Financial is the least sensitive to market volatility due to its high asset backing.

In the near term, the broker expects outflows to increase on the announced departure of a key portfolio manager, but believes the transition will be well-managed.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target lifted to $8.85 from $8.20.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Post Netwealth Group’s 3Q25 update, with funds under administration advancing 23% on a year earlier and net inflows of $3.5bn, Morgan Stanley upgrades the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight.

The fall in the share price of around -20% offers an opportunity to buy a structural grower, the broker states, as advisers migrate from incumbent platforms to specialist platforms like Netwealth, which has around an 8.5% share versus the incumbents with just under 70% share.

Longer term, the analyst prefers Netwealth as it is founder-led with higher earnings growth quality. Near term, Morgan Stanley prefers Hub24 ((HUB)) for more net inflow momentum and higher EPS estimates with a lower valuation.

Overweight. Target is cut to to $29.75 from $31.50. Industry View: In-Line. Earnings forecasts are tweaked.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 5/2/0

UBS cuts its near-term spodumene price forecast by around -10%, lowering the 2026 estimate to US$763/t versus the current spot of US$770/t. The long-term forecast is also reduced by -7% to US$1,300/t (CFR China).

While equity prices have pulled back, the analysts remain cautious on the Lithium sector.

For Pilbara Minerals, the broker lowers its target to $1.50 from $2.00 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell given a weaker share price.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1

UBS marks to market the latest commodity price forecasts for the mining companies.

Increased uncertainty due to US tariffs is likely to reduce demand and stoke inflation, at least initially, the broker explains. UBS prefers exposure to gold, with copper and aluminium in the industrial commodities.

A cautious attitude is taken to iron ore, met coal, and lithium, where supply is expected to exceed demand.

The iron ore price forecast is lowered to US$93/dmt from US$98/dmt for 2025 and down to US$85/dmt from US$95/dmt for 2026. The new forecasts sit below consensus by -5% and -8%, respectively.

UBS lowers the EPS estimates for Sandfire Resources by -20% and -69% for FY25/FY26.

The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price lifts to $13.15 from $10.45.

SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED ((SHV)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0

UBS raises its target for Select Harvests to $5.40 from $5.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral following a -15% share price decline.

The analysts also view the company as a beneficiary of rising almond prices supported by US tariffs as China reallocates almond imports away from California.

The broker lifts its FY25 almond price forecast to $10.35/kg from $9.20/kg, while also cutting crop volume guidance to 24-26.5kt due to weak yields.

Despite the volume downgrade, UBS raises its FY25 EBIT forecast by 7% to $61m and upgrades FY26 by 12% to $86m on a recovery in volumes and increased third-party processing.

UBS raises the target price to $5.40 from $5.00 and upgrades the rating to Buy from Neutral.

Downgrade

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/4/2

Bell Potter lowers its oil price forecasts across 2025-2027 by -13%, -16% and -16%, respectively, to US$68/bbl, US$65/bbl, and US$68/bbl. The long-term (real) estimate is also reduced by -13% to US$70/bbl.

Sweeping changes to tariffs in the US, along with retaliatory measures from major economies, have significantly altered the global economic growth outlook, explains the broker, reducing expectations for future energy demand.

The broker’s target for Beach Energy is slashed to $1.35 from $1.70 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, reflecting short term uncertainty in international energy markets.

From among Bell Potter’s Energy coverage, Beach Energy is the most negatively impacted given around 45-50% of the company’s production is sold into oil price-linked offtake.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/0

UBS marks to market the latest commodity price forecasts for the bulks and materials companies.

Increased uncertainty due to US tariffs is likely to reduce demand and stoke inflation, at least initially, the broker explains. UBS prefers exposure to gold, with copper and aluminium in the industrial commodities.

A cautious attitude is taken to iron ore, met coal, and lithium, where supply is expected to exceed demand.

The iron ore price forecast is lowered to US$93/dmt from US$98/dmt for 2025 and down to US$85/dmt from US$95/dmt for 2026. The new forecasts sit below consensus by -5% and -8%, respectively.

UBS lowers EPS estimates for Deterra Royalties by -1% and -3% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price falls to $3.70 from $4.20.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/2

Evolution Mining has delivered strong operating cash flow, according to Bell Potter, reducing net debt by -$211m in the March quarter to $995m, ahead of the broker’s forecast for $1.08bn.

Group production of 167koz was in line with the analysts’ forecast but below the prior quarter, while costs (AISC) rose to $1,790/oz due to lower grades at Cowal and Ernest Henry.

FY25 guidance of 770koz at costs (AISC) of $1,370/oz is reaffirmed, with stronger volumes and grade mix anticipated in the June quarter.

Bell Potter raises its target to $8.10 from $7.89 based on stronger balance sheet metrics, and downgrades to Hold from Buy on limited near-term upside.

Evolution Mining reported 3Q25 production of 180koz, which was better than both Macquarie’s and consensus expectations by 5%. Some 6koz of extra production came from an elution circuit drawdown at Cowal, which the broker highlights will be given back next quarter.

Copper production at 19.5kt was also 5% better than expected, and all-in sustaining costs of $1,682/oz were 7% above both the analyst’s and consensus forecasts.

No changes were made to FY25 guidance of 710780koz and costs, with year-to-date production achieving 76% of the guidance mid-point, and costs tracking at the upper end.

The stock is downgraded to Underperform due to the robust share price performance. Target price increases to $6.30.

GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Following Genesis Minerals’ record production in 3Q25, Shaw and Partners lifted FY25 estimate to the upper end of the company’s guidance range.

The broker notes the early restart of the Laverton mill and ramp-up to full capacity of 3mtpa have placed the company in a solid position to meet its accelerated growth strategy of 325kt before the FY29 target.

The broker recently upgraded gold price forecasts, and this, together with a higher production forecast, has increased the valuation and target price to $4.00.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on recent share price gains.

LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((LOT)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Shaw and Partners analysts have downgraded uranium price forecasts, judging their current forecasts are too high. The 2025 estimate is lowered to US$77/lb from US$108/lb, and 2026 cut to US$123/lb from US$150/lb.

The broker notes Lotus Resources expects to reach production at the Kayelekara Uranium Project in 3Q25, 12 months earlier than expected, with a low capex of US$50m allowing an early restart.

The broker believes there are risks, including higher-than-expected costs and operations not going as planned.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy to reflect the project risks. Target cut to 22c from 77c. 

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Morgan Stanley downgrades Macquarie Group to Equal-weight from Overweight, with the target price lowered to $191.00 from $224 on the back of a reduction in the FY26 EPS forecast by -9%, as several of the company’s major growth levers will be “unavailable”.

There is a delay in the recovery for capital markets, and sales of renewable assets continue to be soft and below expectations.

The group has a strong balance sheet, with excess capital of $9.6bn over the regulatory minimum. Modeling the financials for a possible recession, Morgan Stanley highlights the impact would be on earnings rather than a balance sheet event.

The industry view remains In-Line.

MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Morgans notes Monash IVF has responded to media reports confirming an embryo of one patient was incorrectly transferred to another patient and resulted in the birth of a child.

The company stated this incident won’t negatively impact FY25 earnings, but the broker believes the hit to reputation will result in a loss of market share. The broker also reckons some doctors may choose not to work with this brand.

Target price cut to $1.09 from $1.45 as the broker applies -25% discount to valuation.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Add.

NANOSONICS LIMITED ((NAN)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/1/1

Bell Potter highlights downside risk for Nanosonics from newly introduced 10% US tariffs, which apply to capital devices such as Trophon and Coris but exclude US-made consumables.

The broker estimates a greater than -10% impact to earnings (EBIT) from 2026, noting margins are already thin and offsetting measures are yet to be announced.

Sales growth in FY25 is guided at 11-14%, but the broker sees FY26 earnings under pressure from launch costs for Coris with limited offsetting revenue until FY27. 

Bell Potter cuts the target price to $4.05 from $4.80 and downgrades to Sell from Hold given valuation concerns and uncertain medium-term earnings visibility.

PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED ((PEN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Shaw and Partners analysts have downgraded uranium price forecasts, judging their current forecasts are too high. The 2025 estimate is lowered to US$77/lb from US$108/lb, and 2026 cut to US$123/lb from US$150/lb.

The broker believes Peninsula Energy will need debt funding or equity injection as it does not have enough capital to reach cashflow breakeven. 

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy until there is enough clarity on the financing and production plans.

Target cut to $1.00 from $4.60, and is set at a discount to the broker’s $1.71 DCF valuation.

PERPETUAL LIMITED ((PPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Citi lowers its target for Perpetual to $18.25 from $24.80 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy after the company recorded net outflows of -$8.9bn in the March quarter, returning to peak levels seen in late-2024.

All asset management boutiques experienced outflows and performance metrics continue to deteriorate, observes the broker.

While equity markets provided modest mark-to-market support, the analyst notes outflows were driven by client reallocations and ongoing underperformance, particularly at Barrow Hanley and TSW.

Wealth Management was a bright spot, posting strong net inflows of $0.9bn, largely due to a new client win, though Citi sees no progress updates on the planned sale of this business or debt refinancing.

FY25 cost guidance was lowered to 3-4% growth from around 4%.

UBS notes Perpetual saw a more-than-expected decline in 3Q25 assets under management on higher-than-expected outflows and muted impact from forex/MTM impacts.

The broker reckons the planned divestment of the wealth management and, ultimately the corporate trust business is resulting in value leakage amid market-driven revenue pressures.

Balance sheet is coming under pressure with increasing revenue and cost headwinds, which will put dividend payout ratio at risk.

The broker notes Perpetual’s earnings are highly sensitive with every -10% move in equities translating to a -21% decline in EPS.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price cut to $18.50 in two steps, first to $19 from $23 on market sensitivity.

RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED ((RWC)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgans downgrades Reliance Worldwide to Hold from Add while slashing the target price to $4.15 from $5.80 due to US tariff concerns.

The analyst explains the share price has declined by -12% since the start of April and over -23% in the last three months on tariff uncertainty.

The company manufactures key products in each region the products are sold in, except the cost of goods sold for its American division includes around US$120m in China procurement that is subject to tariffs. Management continues to shrink the exposure, which has declined from the peak.

Lower copper prices should assist Reliance with a lag, the broker notes.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 6/1/0

UBS downgrades Whitehaven Coal to Neutral from Buy, having previously been under research restriction, with a $5.15 target price, down from $9.40.

Taking into account the completion of the Blackwater sell-down as a positive for the company, and downgrades to the outlook for met coal, with price forecasts lowered to US$176/US$180t, the broker sees supply exceeding demand, resulting in a market surplus.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=207,140,181,100,235,246,169,133&h0=120,137,159,108,183,138,26,173&s0=11,31,35,42,19,30,4,30″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

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