Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 30, 2025

This story features APA GROUP, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APA   AQZ   AUE   AZJ   BRG   GNP   HRZ   MAH   SLC   XRO  

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.14

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) has reversed its draft stance and approved APA Group’s application to reclassify Basslink as a regulated Transmission Network Service Provider.

While the asset is small (2.5% of FY25 earnings), the broker sees this as a positive outcome, removing competitive risk from the proposed Marinus Link and enabling more predictable long-term earnings.

The analyst raises the group’s target price to $8.90 from $8.85, incorporating the $110m Atlas to Reedy Creek (ARC) pipeline acquisition, debt financing impacts, and revised interest cost assumptions.

The broker retains an Overweight rating, citing favourable positioning amid evolving east coast gas dynamics and expectations for lower interest rates.

A draft revenue determination for Basslink is due in September, with the final decision expected in February 2026. 

This report was published on June 26, 2025.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.14 Difference: $0.76
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting downside of -4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -79.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of 37.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.59

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes investors concerned with Alliance Aviation Services’ debt profile will be comforted by the engine and inventory sales announcement, which will bring in around $62.3m.

The sales demonstrate the company’s focus on capital efficiency and achieve a more rapid balance sheet deleveraging, the broker highlights.

Minor changes to FY25 forecasts. The broker now expects the company to reduce its first dividend in 1H26 vs the previous forecast of 2H26, with a payout ratio expected at 20%. This is forecast to rise to 50% in FY27.

Overweight. Target price $3.89.

This report was published on June 30, 2025.

Target price is $3.89 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $1.3
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 35.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.23.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUE    AURUM RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.46

Petra Capital rates ((AUE)) as Buy (1) –

Aurum Resources started a 30,000 drill program at the Napie gold project aimed at increasing the existing 868koz inferred resource, which is mostly at a 150m depth.

Petra Capital believes there is strong potential to grow the project into a multi-ounce one, as only 4.4km of the 30km zone has been tested to date.

Update resource expected by the end of 2025. Buy. Target unchanged at 95c.

This report was published on June 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.49
If AUE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.99

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes updated guidance from Aurizon Holdings with FY25 guided -5% below the low end of previous guidance post a soft May.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -13% for FY25 and -1% for FY26 with greater concerns over ongoing problems with Bulk as opposed to lower volumes on the Network business.

Jarden is awaiting some evidence of Bulk earnings weakness as steadying, as well as improved cost management for both Bulk and Containerised Freight, and signs that re-contracting hasn’t impacted on margins and growth.

Neutral. Target trimmed to $3.10 from $3.15.

This report was published on June 26, 2025.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.11
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of -7.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 27.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $29.50

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden upgrades Breville Group to Overweight from Neutral while lowering the target price to $31 from $32.10, as the reaction to tariffs on the stock appears to have been too extensive.

The analyst has assumed circa 55% tariff rate on products from China to the US, and FY26 EPS estimate declines by -12%, with FY27/FY28 down by -6% and -7%, respectively.

Cost of goods sold is expected to be a headwind in FY26, offset by some lower costs as product manufacturing is relocated to other lower tariff geographies.

As Breville’s competitors are experiencing the same tariff issues, Jarden believes the impacts are “broad-based” and will be transitory.

The analyst continues to view the longer-term growth prospects as positive for the premium brand, with Asia and China the largest opportunity.

This report was published on June 26, 2025.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.50 Difference: $1.5
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.63, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 93.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.1, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.1, implying annual growth of 6.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNP    GENUSPLUS GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $3.85

Moelis rates ((GNP)) as Buy (1) –

GenusPlus Group has upgraded FY25 earnings guidance, now targeting earnings (EBITDA) of $6266m, up from a normalised FY24 base of $45.3m, observes Moelis.

The uplift reflects both early project completions and acquisition contributions, explain the analysts, with $46m expected from recent deals. Second-half FY25 earnings are forecast at $36.5m, implying to the broker 32% growth half-on-half.

Moelis sees positive momentum heading into FY26, underpinned by recent wins including a $20m Arc Infrastructure rail project and major contracts with NBN ($130m) and Atmos Renewables ($65m for a 100MW Battery Energy Storage System).

Also, the broker points out the acquisition of MGC Solutions is already demonstrating capability and value.

Moelis notes upside risk from further contract conversion in transmission and energy transition work, alongside improving performance in the Communications segment.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and lifts its target price to $4.40 from $3.39, citing the $1.5bn order book and growing recurring revenue base as key supports for earnings momentum.

This report was published on June 26, 2025.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.55
If GNP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.48.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.26.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HRZ    HORIZON MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((HRZ)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes Horizon Minerals has commenced drilling at the Burbanks gold project, with the initial results of the 15,000m phase one infill program targeted in the September quarter.

The phase two 15,000m extensional drilling is targeting high-grade lodes. A pre-feasibility report is expected in the December quarter.

The broker notes the estimated cash inflow of $60m over the next 12 months will help in funding aggressive development, with first gold production from the Black Swan mill expected in late 2026.

Buy. Target unchanged at 12c.

This report was published on June 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.069
If HRZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 135% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.75.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.83.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.29

Petra Capital rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes the recent upscaling by Macmahon Holdings of its syndicated debt facility suggests its lenders are comfortable with the company’s debt serviceability. This could pave the way for higher dividends or M&A.

Overall, the broker believes the company is on track to deliver FY25 earnings in line with the guidance and is well-positioned for further organic growth. The broker sees upside risks to its EPS, free cash flow and DPS forecasts.

Buy. Target unchanged at 41c.

This report was published on June 30, 2025.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.12
If MAH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.30.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.69.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $2.98

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1) –

Superloop has upgraded its guidance for FY25 earlier this morning and Wilsons, in an initial reaction, thinks management has erred on the conservative side when also providing guidance for FY26.

Wilsons sees several tailwinds over the coming months, including likely increased competitor churn, continued strong Origin subs growth, AGL NBN campaign etc.

Estimates are now officially under review, but commentary highlights there should be ongoing upside potential. Overweight. Target $2.85.

This report was published on June 30, 2025.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting downside of -3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 114.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 60.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $182.99

Jarden rates ((XRO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden considers Xero’s acquisition of US payments platform Melio for -US$2.5bn as strategically sound, allowing management to integrate payments and accounting while accelerating US growth.

Jarden estimates the deal will result in approximately NZ$4bn of goodwill, prompting questions about whether building similar functionality in-house could have been materially more cost-effective.

Management expects group revenue to more than double to NZ$4.2bn by FY28, with Jarden flagging a 19% year-on-year revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and a Rule of 40 outcome of 39.3%.

The broker downgrades FY26 and FY28 EPS by -14% and -8%, respectively, due to dilution, but upgrades FY30 forecasts by around 5% on synergy assumptions.

Jarden raises its target price to $207 from $197 and retains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on June 27, 2025.

Target price is $207.00 Current Price is $182.99 Difference: $24.01
If XRO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $211.50, suggesting upside of 15.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 172.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 106.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 198.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 92.1.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 187.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 97.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.6, implying annual growth of 35.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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