Are Markets Ready For Today’s Model-T Moment?

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Today's EVs are the equivalent of last century's Model T —a real game-changer— but for investors looking to profit, the challenges are plenty and real.

• Global transition to electric vehicles is accelerating, led by China
• Strong demand for materials used in batteries
• Battery Energy Storage Systems were the under-the-radar demand driver in 2025
• CATL’s production updates have significant impact on outlook for lithium pricing
• Companies Positioned in Australia’s EV Rollout

By Paul Githaiga

Think of EVs like the Model T — a real game-changer.

By 2025, the demand for battery storage has pushed lithium prices up, so investors are starting to pay attention. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reckons EVs saved about -1.3m barrels of oil a day in 2024; yeah, that’s a lot, and it shows this shift is actually happening.

And it’s not just cars anymore. Trucks, buses, even two- and three-wheelers are going electric.

Those smaller vehicles alone made up around 15% of sales last year. Governments are throwing in incentives, and with more used EVs on the market, they’re finally within reach for everyday people.

Why this Matters Now

Canaccord predicts around 21.2m EVs will be sold in 2025. This is a massive 26% increase from the previous year. China alone accounts for about 61% of those sales. 

Even with some economic challenges, UBS has observed a 17% increase in EV production in China this October compared to last year, indicating a strong demand for the materials used in batteries.

On top of that, grid-scale battery installations are ramping up fast. Brokers now see Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as a second major pillar of lithium demand.

The mix of stronger demand and falling inventories is why price forecasts are all over the place — and why ASX lithium stocks have bounced.

Following the EV Dollars

Private equity remains cautious about EVs. Slow adoption and delayed profits make firms picky. Huge rounds and strategic investors are keeping the market alive.

Watch the balance sheet signals: big Chinese names (even profitable ones) are spending heavily to expand, which changes the risk picture for PE.

Retail investors remain engaged, but their focus has shifted. According to ARK Invest’s Q2 2025 update, clean-energy ETFs (including EV themes) saw significant outflows.

In other words: retail money is still active, but more nuanced, not just buying EV hype, but hunting for long-term, structural plays. 

And while investor appetite is shifting, broker desks are seeing something else entirely — the fundamentals and price decks behind the EV ecosystem have moved fast.

Here’s how they frame the next phase.

What the Brokers Say 

Different houses model very different short-term outcomes. Here’s a simple, sourced table showing the spread of spodumene (SC6) forecasts:

Takeaway: spot is near US$1,000/t (mid-Nov 2025), but price forecasts for 2026–27 range from conservative (US$960–1,300) to bullish (US$2,250–3,250). 

BESS: The Demand Surprise (and why it matters)

Battery Energy Storage Systems were the under-the-radar driver in 2025. These are the key numbers to anchor your model:

Why you should care: BESS is creating steady demand for large battery supplies, boosting lithium needs.

Canaccord thinks BESS will need about 23% of all the lithium in the next few years. This will make it harder to find enough lithium for everyone.

Inventories, Audits, and the CATL Swing Factor

Two inventory signals are loud:

• Macquarie: aggregate LCE inventories down ~2–3 kt LCE/week (SMM data).

• Barrenjoey: current drawdown estimates ~10–15 kt LCE/month.

Strong demand and low refinery stocks are shrinking inventories. All eyes are on CATL’s Jianxiawo, currently under a RMB 247m (US$35m) audit that went public in November 2025.

A restart could happen in December, but Macquarie expects it more likely after Chinese New Year in February 2026.

How CATL decides —restart or suspend— will heavily impact near-term supply.

Supply Wildcards

A handful of supply changes can flip price outcomes:

• Australian restarts: idled pits like Ngungaju (Pilbara) and Bald Hill (MIN) could resume if prices remain above US$1,200/t. (Macquarie)

• African surge: Barrenjoey points to Nigeria exports annualising 1.5 Mt (2025) vs <0.5 Mt in 2024; Mali/DRC output may enter in 2026.

• Chinese audits/reclassification: multiple lepidolite operations remain under review; reclassification or shutdowns would tighten supply further (Macquarie).

Company Evidence 

Concrete events illustrate the market’s re-rating:

• Mineral Resources (MIN) sold -30% of its 50% interest in Wodgina & Mt Marion to Posco for US$765m. That transaction materially strengthens the balance sheet and underpins upgraded valuations.

• IGO Ltd ((IGO)): commissioning of CGP3 (Greenbushes) lifts capacity to just over 2.0 Mtpa, underpinning large FY27 earnings upgrades.

• Pilbara MInerals ((PLS)): its size and low costs position it to weather cycles; but the share price by now implies a high spodumene deck (US$1,400/t).

Practical Investor Checklist

• Set price cases: Conservative US$900–1,300, base US$1,300–2,250, bull US$2,250+. Size positions based on what you believe.

• Focus on scale & low cost: Low AISC and strong balance sheets reduce risk.

• Watch catalysts: Keep an eye on CATL Jianxiawo restarts, Chinese audits, and African export flows.

• Trim and buy the pauses: Markets are volatile—take profits ahead of restart news, and buy dips in quality names.

• Hedge or stage exposure: Don’t assume the market is in the bull scenario.

Quick Snapshot (Mid-Nov 2025)

Companies Positioned in Australia’s EV Rollout

Several ASX-listed companies are well placed to gain from the ongoing EV rollout in transport, energy, and infrastructure.

• Eagers Automotive ((APE)) — Australia’s biggest car dealer. Rising EV sales boost revenue, and new electric brand partnerships add growth. They’re also expanding EV showrooms and service across the country. 

• Viva Energy ((VEA)) — Operator of Shell and Liberty fuel networks, now converting sites into EV-charging hubs. This provides a natural hedge as petrol demand declines, creating a new recurring revenue stream. 

• AGL Energy ((AGL)) — One of the country’s largest electricity retailers and generators. More EVs means higher grid demand and faster growth in storage and renewable projects — key areas within AGL’s strategy.

Look for infrastructure and services plays as well:

• Rectifier Technologies ((RFT)) — Designs the power-conversion components that sit inside fast chargers. As charging networks expand, the addressable market scales with each new installation.

• GenusPlus Group ((GNP)) — Builds and maintains the electrical infrastructure that underpins renewable projects and EV charging corridors. Increased electrification means steady contract flow.

• Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE)) — Does high-voltage and industrial electrical work. As charging corridors and battery projects roll out, company should pick up the upgrade and installation jobs.

• IPD Group ((IPG)) — Supplies switchgear, control systems, and EV chargers — effectively the hardware layer powering Australia’s electrification.

• PWR Holdings ((PWH)) — Makes cooling systems for high-performance and electric cars. As more EVs hit the road, demand keeps rising.

Each of these sits in the practical, “picks and shovels” segment of the EV boom. These are the companies building, powering, and maintaining the transition itself.

The Takeaway: Trade the Facts, not the Headlines

Just as the Model T transformed transportation in the past, electric cars are reshaping how we think about transport, energy, and investments.

However, the transition won’t be easy; prices, policies, and technology will fluctuate.

Pay attention to what happens with CATL and Chinese audits, focus on companies that can scale and execute well, and use current price jumps as chances to sell some shares instead of going all-in.

Technical limitations

If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see tables included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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