APA GROUP (APA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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APA - APA GROUP

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 7.08
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

APA Group owns and operates natural gas and electricity assets, while increasingly adding renewables. It is Australia's largest natural gas infrastructure business and one of few true local dividend champions. It listed in 2000.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$7.15

20 Dec
2024

0.100

OPEN

$7.05

1.42%

HIGH

$7.20

9,128,009

LOW

$7.05

TARGET
$7.786 8.9% upside
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . ORG . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
APA: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 77.3 17.7 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 56.0 57.0 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 77.1% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 1.8% 1.8% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 40.5 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 8.0% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 72.4% 322.6% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 5.60%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 7.83

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 28/12 - ex-div 26.5c (franking 0%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2024 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx77.3
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx56.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,015.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx253.1
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,156.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx32.44 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx37.92 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.09 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5.34 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx37.92 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx6.15 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-479.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,919 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11,073 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx12,992 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,882 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx676 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3.16

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,096.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx36.35 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,115 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-15 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx482 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.2

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Morgans

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

18/12/2024

3

Equal-weight

$8.58

20.00%

Morgan Stanley acknowledges the energy regulator's draft decision to leave APA Group's Basslink as unregulated, which will impact estimated FY26 earnings by around $15m.

The regulator estimated additional earnings of $0.75bn over a 20-30 year period on the group's proposed regulated asset base of $752m, and the broker views a regulated earnings stream as preferable to the merchant stream, which will continue.

Morgan Stanley does not believe the final decision will differ from the draft decision.

The Equal-weight rating and $8.58 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

FORECAST
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxx xx xxx xxxx xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Login above or Get a Free Trial

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxx xxxx xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

20/12/2024

2

Overweight

$8.30

16.08%

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released its draft decision saying it would not accept APA Group's application to convert Basslink to a regulated asset. In response, APA said it would operate Basslink as a non-contracted market network service provider if AER's final decision is unchanged from the draft.

In Jarden's view, APA's stance will likely result in an increase in earnings in the medium term but a possible earnings reduction in the medium term following the start-up of Marinus Link. 

The broker reduced the target price to $8.30 from $8.45 due to higher cost estimates, partly offset by the impact of the Northern Territory pipeline investment. Overweight rating maintained.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

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