APA GROUP (APA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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21/08/2026

5

Sell

$8.50

-19.20%

On further inspection, the target price is raised to $8.50 from $8, with a Sell rating retained.

The broker remains optimistic about APA's potential growth opportunities in the Beetaloo Basin, although commerciality remains unproven and competition for new infrastructure is expected.

EPS forecasts are raised 5% for FY27, tweaked lower for FY28, and raised 13% for FY29. The analyst suggests contracting pressures may be emerging as indicated by a decline in EBITDA in real terms, as the assets have CPI escalation contracts.

UBS maintains a Sell rating for APA Group with an unchanged price target of $8.00 following an in-line FY26 result featuring improved underlying EBITDA of $2,183m and disciplined cost management.

Underlying NPAT of $247m missed UBS estimates due to higher depreciation and amortisation alongside elevated interest costs.

Management guided FY27 EBITDA to $2,260m-$2,340m and lifted organic growth capital expenditure to $3.5bn across FY27-FY29, while highlighting growing contracting pressures across parts of the East Coast grid.

The stock trades on a net debt to EBITDA of 6.1x with forecast dividends per share guided higher to 59.0c.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.

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24/08/2026

3

Neutral

$10.25

-2.57%

APA Group delivered a FY26 result that was in line with expectations, supported by cost-out achievements that reached $80m in savings against an original target of $50m.

Underlying EBITDA of $2,183m sat towards the upper end of guidance, while underlying NPAT rose to $247m. Management released FY27 guidance targeting underlying EBITDA of $2,260-$2,340m and a dividend per share of 59.0c.

The three-year organic growth pipeline was increased from $3.0bn to $3.5bn, driven by key developments such as the Brigalow gas peaker and a newly announced $259m investment in a solar farm and BESS project.

Jarden maintains a Neutral rating with a $10.25 target price, noting that valuation is balanced alongside an accelerating growth capital expenditure profile.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.