GQG PARTNERS INC (GQG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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24/08/2026

1

Buy

$1.85

38.58%

Following up from the first take, UBS highlights the key takeaway was a significant shift in portfolio positioning after management acknowledged it had underestimated the durability of AI compute demand.

GQG is now overweight Technology and Semiconductors across virtually all strategies, while reducing exposure to Utilities, Staples and Health Care, lowering the risk of continued underperformance if AI-related earnings momentum persists.

Near-term outflows are expected to continue but increasingly reflect legacy performance rather than current positioning, while resilient FUM and an attractive valuation support the investment case. The broker retains its Buy rating. Target slips to $1.85 from $1.90.

First take: GQG Partners' H1 distributable earnings of US$234.9m modestly exceeded forecasts and the US3.62c dividend was around 3% ahead, assisted by a lower tax rate.

UBS notes fee margins remained resilient and costs were controlled, but the analyst believes consensus underestimates H2 outflows, particularly following weak August performance and the group's technology underweight.

Buy rating is retained, with improved investment performance the key catalyst and sustained outflows or key-person risk the main concerns.

Target drops slightly to $1.90.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 21.81 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 15.99 cents and EPS of 17.45 cents.

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25/08/2026

3

Neutral

$1.50

12.36%

Jarden maintains its Neutral recommendation for GQG Partners with its target price reduced to $1.50 from $1.65 following a first-half earnings result marked by a shift in strategic positioning away from its previous defensive stance.

The analyst notes that underperformance has been persistent and outflows are likely to remain elevated for the near term.

The broker's estimates indicate that the stock trades on an attractive 8x price-to-earnings multiple with a 13% dividend yield.

The analyst highlights that earnings risk remains skewed to the downside until the company's repositioning fully translates into operational performance.