Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 15-05-26

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((CDA))
            [1] => ((ING))
            [2] => ((NWS))
            [3] => ((AOV))
            [4] => ((BAP))
            [5] => ((CSL))
            [6] => ((ELV))
            [7] => ((GNC))
            [8] => ((MQG))
            [9] => ((TPW))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => CDA
            [1] => ING
            [2] => NWS
            [3] => AOV
            [4] => BAP
            [5] => CSL
            [6] => ELV
            [7] => GNC
            [8] => MQG
            [9] => TPW
        )

)

This story features CODAN LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CDA
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 11 to Friday May 15, 2026
Total Upgrades: 3
Total Downgrades: 7
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.08%; Hold 27.30%; Sell 6.61%

For the week ending Friday, May 15, 2026, FNArena recorded three upgrades and seven downgrades from seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.

In a developing trend, falls in target prices (valuations) and earnings forecasts materially outweigh increases for the fourth successive week.

The Australian share market is experiencing a trend of net downgrades, which also corresponds with companies like CSL and Cochlear issuing profit warnings, while others, such as CommBank and its peers, release underwhelming market updates.

Though, as also shown in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor, not all market updates are negative: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Salary packaging and novated leasing services provider Smartgroup Corp’s average target rose by around 9% last week after a trading update in the prior week revealed novated leasing orders had increased by 22% year-on-year and settlements rose 7%, driven by electric vehicle demand.

Battery electric vehicles now account for 59% of new orders, supported by higher fuel prices and policy certainty, Ord Minnett observed. While yields softened slightly, it’s noted volume growth and revenue momentum remain solid.

Management was also pleased to see the Government “reaffirm its commitment to the Electric Car Discount Policy” given policy certainty is important to maintaining strong EV uptake and provides confidence for manufacturers and charging providers to invest.

Certainly, policy clarity supported a higher FY27 multiple of 16.0x (from 13.0x) from the analyst at Macquarie.

Network-as-a-service and infrastructure-as-a-service provider Megaport follows next with a near 7% jump in average target after announcing a major contract win for its Latitude business, providing strong validation of the company’s expansion into AI infrastructure beyond core connectivity, Morgan Stanley suggested.

The company also appears among those with declining average earnings forecasts. This reflects the fact the contract wins are expected to support upgrades from FY27 onwards. FY26 is about to end and carries the costs and expenses first.

A full account of analysts’ views on Megaport will be available in an article on the FNArena website later this week.

Average targets also rose for Macquarie Group, Dyno Nobel and News Corp. Commentary on reporting ‘beats’ by these three companies is available in the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/15/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-15-05-2026/.

A more detailed account of analysts’views on Dyno Nobel’s interim results is also available at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/14/new-look-dyno-nobels-explosive-first-half/, and for News Corp’s quarterly update at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/13/news-corp-en-route-for-record-fy26-profit/

Macquarie Group appears second for positive change to average earnings forecasts, behind medical device manufacturer ImpediMed.

ImpediMed’s 12% rise in FY26 forecast is heavily impacted by the small numbers involved.

The company, which develops devices for non-invasive fluid measurement in the body, received a near -40% cut in average target price following a placement of $13m at 1c per share with an additional $2m raised via a share purchase plan.

Ord Minnett suggested the fourth quarter will be a transformational period for the company following its capital raise, new CEO appointment and implementation of a cost-out program exceeding -$5m.

The cost-out program comprises headcount reductions, relocating certain roles to Australia from the US, and broader cost savings initiatives, Bell Potter explained.

While this program is seen as encouraging, the path to breakeven still depends on revenue growth, this analysts cautioned.

Automotive aftermarket parts and services company Bapcor received the largest cut (-47%) in average target following a -5% downgrade in FY26 earnings guidance (yet another one) with management blaming challenging trading conditions arising from higher interest rates and the Middle East war.

Macquarie observed the trend deteriorated over the course of April, with weaker conditions now expected to remain over FY26 as lower consumer and business confidence weigh on consumer sentiment. Higher costs and the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar provided additional headwinds.

Citi lowered its target for Bapcor to 40c from 76c and downgraded to Sell from Neutral.

This broker noted risks around balance sheet metrics with slower-than-expected inventory reduction and potential covenant pressure despite temporary relief from lenders.

CSL’s -31% fall in average target is explained at length in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/13/csl-challenges-pile-on-wheres-the-upside/ The company’s average FY26 earnings forecast rose by nearly 2% last week because the bulk of broker downgrades impacted FY27 and beyond.

Online furniture and homewares retailer Temple & Webster, software services provider Gentrack Group, and GrainCorp also received material reductions in target prices last week.

Temple & Webster’s trading update last week showed revenue and earnings are tracking toward the lower end of guidance, below consensus expectations.

Given the deteriorating macro backdrop, Macquarie lowered its target to $4.75 from $13.70 and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, having lost confidence in management’s ability to achieve the scale required to deliver operating leverage over the next 12 months.

Citi, which lowered its target by -$2.40 to $5.60, suggested a greater focus on profitability over growth may pressure valuation multiples and reinforce concerns around management’s ability to grow revenue and margins simultaneously.

This concentration on profitability was seen as a positive by Overweight-rated Morgan Stanley, given it has driven record April earnings and improved operating leverage, positioning FY27 earnings materially ahead of expectations even in a low-growth environment. 

Management at Gentrack lowered its FY26 earnings guidance to around -50% below the consensus estimate, observed Ord Minnett.

The downgrade is a reflection of delays in second generation (G2) pipeline conversion (for its billing and customer management software) and weaker non-recurring project revenue.

The range of outcomes for Gentrack remains wide. Morgan Stanley noted material new contracts and G2 traction underpin a compelling bull case, but contract losses, lack of reference customers, and pipeline uncertainty suggest scope for further deleverage.

Agribusiness company GrainCorp reiterated FY26 guidance for underlying earnings and underlying net profit after tax despite challenging seasonal conditions across northern NSW and Queensland. 

While management explained elevated working capital is expected to unwind during 2H26, supporting a recovery in core net cash, Macquarie highlighted weaker operating cash flow and the absence of a special dividend, reflecting a more uncertain outlook.

Morgans’ outlook for the FY27 winter crop is similarly cautious given cost pressures and the dry weather outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology.

GrainCorp’s strategic assets are worth materially more than the current share price, in this broker’s view. However, with earnings expected to decline again in FY27 and limited near-term catalysts, Morgans’ target is reduced to $5.62 from $6.76 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Uranium miner Paladin Energy received the most material reduction in average earnings forecast from analysts after releasing March quarter financials.

The -US$3m loss surprised, with shares falling -12% following the ASX release.

Sell-rated Ord Minnett anticipated the loss would widen to -US$46m in the June half, as guidance points to significantly higher June quarter operational costs.

A further negative surprise for the broker were administrative, depreciation and amortisation, and selling costs, which were well above estimates.

Coronado Global Resources is next on the list after revealing first quarter saleable production was negatively impacted by weather disruptions.

Management is implementing initiatives to lift productivity. Ord Minnett anticipated operating conditions would improve in coming quarters, supporting a more sustainable performance through the remainder of 2026.

The Hold-rated broker lowered its target for Coronado by -10c to 26c.

Life360’s average earnings forecast for FY26 fell by circa -25%. This week, FNArena will be publishing an article explaining why strong first quarter revenue and earnings were insufficient to dispel market concerns around monthly active users.

Total Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.08%, with Sell ratings at just 6.61%, leaving 27.30% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

CODAN LIMITED ((CDA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Codan’s DTC UxV radios, used in unmanned aerial vehicles, are the largest and fastest-growing of the UxV segment and opportunities are expanding across other platforms including ground and marine communications, Macquarie observes.

Recent conflicts have underscored the future of warfare is increasingly reliant on these systems. The broker also notes budget allocations to these systems are growing across almost all defence forces.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target lifted to $44.20 from $42.00. The FY26 results are due August 20.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Macquarie has upgraded Inghams Group to Neutral from Underperform with an unchanged target of $1.80 post the Investor Day.

Management reiterated guidance for FY26 which was viewed positively and reflected an ability to navigate inflationary pressures.

Strategically, the focus is on a better product mix with growth segments such as free range, organic, convenience nutrition and experience singled out by management.

The analyst ponders how challenging it will be to attract customers to differentiated products in higher value categories when the market is used to private label produce.

Earnings growth will continue to be boosted by better cost of production as well as improvements across the supply chain and yield factors.

Earnings forecasts are tweaked higher by 2% for FY26-FY28.

NEWS CORPORATION ((NWS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0

News Corp posted US$343m in EBITDA in the March quarter, up 18% and ahead of Macquarie’s estimates. The broker notes the business is executing on AI content licensing deals, reinforcing the proprietary nature of its data.

The main contributor to the result was digital real estate services, accounting for 11 percentage points of the EBITDA growth. News media underperformed, with lower UK earnings amid costs for the California Post launch.

Macquarie envisages content licensing deals with AI platforms are a big opportunity. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target rises to $46.25 from $44.40.

Downgrade

AMOTIV LIMITED ((AOV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Citi leaves FY26 earnings estimates largely unchanged for Amotiv while trimming FY27 and FY28 EPS by -6% and -3%, respectively. This is primarily driven by lower margins amid upward pressure on raw materials and freight that is partially offset by FX tailwinds and modest price increases.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy, although the broker acknowledges the stock’s valuation appears undemanding. Target is reduced to $6.70 from $9.30, reflecting lower earnings and larger discount to peers for the 4WD segment.

This also reflects increased earnings risks given potential for deterioration in the Middle East conflict and adverse impact on end-user demand.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/2

Citi lowers its target for Bapcor to 40c from 76c and downgrades to Sell from Neutral following a trading update.

A summary of the broker’s initial views follows.

At first glance, Citi suggests a further deterioration in investor sentiment towards Bapcor is likely following an earnings downgrade today (yet again), raising concerns over the credibility of management’s turnaround strategy.

FY26 underlying earnings guidance has been reduced to $140m-$150m from $150m-$160m, reflecting weaker trading conditions, cost pressures and currency headwinds.

Specifically, management attribute the downgrade to the impact of the Middle East conflict and higher interest rates, with weaker trading conditions since March 2026, rising fuel, freight and supplier costs in April.

A softer NZD/AUD exchange rate also weighed on translated earnings from the New Zealand business, the broker highlights.

Risks around balance sheet metrics are flagged, with slower-than-expected inventory reduction and potential covenant pressure despite temporary relief from lenders.

Citi remains cautious, noting increased competition and ongoing execution challenges.

CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Citi downgrades CSL to Neutral from Buy and lowers the target to $110 from $200. This follows a fall of -16% in the stock as a result of the latest profit downgrade post the company’s business review.

While there are arguments the bad news is “baked in”, the downgrade occurs because the broker does not believe immunoglobulin and albumin are on a firm footing and suspects investors will remain cautious.

Turnarounds in large therapeutic companies are considered long-term projects in the broker’s experience.

Low-mid single-digit earnings growth is anticipated in the medium term. Citi cuts FY26 net profit estimates by -10% in FY26 and by -15% in FY27, with reductions to major sales lines and forecast Behring gross margins.

ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED ((ELV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Elevra Lithium’s revised North American Lithium (NAL) project expansion study outlines a staged development plan with earlier-than-expected production and unchanged capex, Macquarie highlights.

A $441m financing package provides funding certainty, in the analyst’s view, supporting both the NAL expansion and Moblan Lithium project development activities.

Production is expected to increase modestly post-expansion, with staged delivery reducing execution risk.

Macquarie lifts its target to $13.50 from $11.60 but downgrades to Neutral from Outperform following recent share price strength.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/0

GrainCorp delivered a first half result that was largely in line, albeit weak, with underlying EBITDA down -32% to $136.7m. The company has reiterated FY26 earnings guidance.

Morgans notes the outlook for the FY27 winter crop is cautious, given cost pressures and the dry outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology, and downgrades its crop forecasts, noting a significantly larger-than-expected cash outflow was reported while the era of special dividends appears to be over.

The broker points out the strategic assets are worth materially more than the current share price but as earnings appear set to decline again in FY27 there is a lack of catalysts so the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $5.62 from $6.76.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Ord Minnett describes a “stellar” FY26 result from Macquarie Group, with earnings comfortably ahead of expectations, driven by standout performances in Commodities and Global Markets and Macquarie Capital.

Outcomes for Macquarie Asset Management and Banking and Financial Services were broadly in line with consensus estimates, according to the broker.

Commentary notes exceptional trading conditions supported earnings.

FY27 guidance points to broadly stable earnings across divisions, albeit dependent on market conditions, the broker cautions.

Management signalled openness to M&A, potentially in private credit, supported by a more conservative capital management approach, Ord Minnett observes.

Ord Minnett retains a $255 target price, and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Macquarie loses confidence in Temple & Webster’s path to scale that will enable operating leverage over the next year.

The company faces worsening macro headwinds amid recent rate rises and a federal budget that “disincentivises housing churn”, the broker adds.

While constructive on the reduction of costs to preserve profitability, Macquarie believes newly-implemented marketing efficiencies will have a further drag on growth.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The share price has fallen -56% since the February results. The broker reduces its target to $4.75 from $13.70.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms