OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Bell Potter rates AIS as Buy

Aeris Resources' September-quarter production was broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations, although higher mining and development expenditure pushed costs above forecasts.

The broker highlights the commencement of mining at the Constellation open pit, with first ore expected in March 2027.

Constellation is expected to support higher copper grades and lift Tritton's annual production towards 27kt–30kt over the medium term. Also, stronger grades and lower capital expenditure are seen as improving overall performance through FY27.

Higher copper price assumptions lift earnings forecasts by 23% for FY27, 7% for FY28 and 4% for FY29. Buy rating and its $0.90 target price maintained.

Macquarie rates CSC as No Rating

Capstone Copper's 3Q production of 45.2kt was -7% below consensus, while cash costs of US$2.95/lb were in line with expectations.

Macquarie highlights adjusted EBITDA of US$358m was 7% above consensus and 17% ahead of its forecast, supported by stronger copper prices and lower costs at Mantoverde.

The Mantoverde optimised (MVO) expansion is ramping up ahead of schedule, with throughput exceeding its 45ktpd design capacity in late October, offering potential upside to 2027 production.

Pinto Valley disappointed, with production of 6.4kt around -30% below the analyst's expectations following 45 days of downtime. C1 costs rose to US$6.11/lb.

Management expects 2026 production towards the lower end of 200–230kt guidance and cash costs towards the upper end of US$2.45–US$2.75/lb.

Macquarie is restricted on providing a rating or target for Capstone Copper at present.

Citi rates NHF as Neutral

Citi anticipates nib Holdings' Australian resident health insurance (ARHI) policyholder growth may fall below industry levels as management prioritises profitability over market share.

The broker also sees potential customer losses as nib encourages greater use of its preferred dental provider network.

While improved new business profitability is expected to eventually follow, higher bond yields may generate short-term capital losses on fixed-interest investments.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and target of $7.15.