OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates CSL as Buy

Citi observes CSL’s capital markets day highlighted a shift back to NPAT as the key growth metric from FY27, replacing NPATA. The analysts expect 6% and 9% NPAT growth in FY27 and FY28, excluding restructuring costs. 

The broker believes Horizon 2 (plasma yield improvement via manufacturing process change) could lift plasma yields by 10% by FY30, though profitability benefits remain uncertain.

Management aims to counter albumin pressure in China through greater retail exposure.

Seqirus continues to face headwinds from subdued US flu vaccination rates, yet the analysts believe the division is well placed for global leadership in influenza and can leverage growth opportunities outside the US.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $225.

Bell Potter rates LNW as Buy

Light & Wonder's 3Q25 adjusted EBITDA beat both Bell Potter's forecast and the consensus by 4%, with revenue up 3% y/y  to US$841m, also ahead of the broker's US$839m estimate.

Growth was driven by strong Gaming, up 4% y/y and iGaming, up 16%, offset by weaker SciPlay, down -4%. Margin expansion in Gaming and iGaming underpinned the earnings beat, leading to a 64% rise in free cash flow to US$136m.

Net debt leverage improved to 3.3x, and the company re-affirmed FY25 adjusted EBITDA guidance of US$1.43-1.47bn.

The broker lifted FY25 EPS forecast by 2% and FY26 by 1% on stronger 3Q EBITDA, Asian shipment deferrals, delayed Grover Indiana entry, and higher buyback assumptions.

Buy. Target rises to $176 from $173.

Citi rates VCX as Neutral

Vicinity Centres’ September quarter update demonstrated to Citi continued leasing strength and stable occupancy, reinforcing strong landlord negotiating power.

The broker highlights 99.5% occupancy and portfolio sales growth of 4.4%, including 5.9% for specialty and mini-major tenants, reflecting solid retail demand.

Chatswood Chase Stage 1 reopened with 60 retailers and achieved sales well above opening targets. Chadstone’s Market Pavilion precinct continues to outperform, sustaining high visitation and productivity of $18,000 per square metre, observe the analysts.

The broker sees positive operational momentum supported by firm leasing spreads and rent escalators. Citi retains a Neutral rating and target of $2.60.