OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates ALX as Neutral

Citi lowers its distribution forecasts for Atlas Arteria following September quarter traffic figures and potential additional French taxes.

These taxes could reduce cash distributions from French toll road operator APRR, the analyst observes, the company's chief source of cash distributions. The target is reduced to $3.87 from $4.80.

FY27 distributions are expected to fall by approximately -23% to 31c, implying an approximate 8.5% yield at current prices.

Distributions could then remain stable, Citi suggests, with a favourable Dulles Greenway outcome offering upside.

Citi retains its Neutral rating, balancing distribution pressures against share price weakness and the possibility of IFM Investors bidding for the remaining shares it does not own.

Macquarie rates ELV as Outperform

Elevra Lithium delivered first quarter production of 54,900t that beat Macquarie's estimates. Spodumene price forecasts are reduced by -31%-36% for the four quarters to September 2027, averaging US$1,255/t.

Ore mined was a record 466,000t, up 25% on the quarter. The broker assesses the company offers significant operating leverage to lithium prices, with unit costs and realised pricing the key variables.

Outperform rating. Target is lowered to $9.00 from $11.50.

UBS rates UNI as Buy

UBS points out Universal Store's AGM trading update revealed moderating like-for-like sales growth over the first 17 weeks of FY27, with Universal Store up 2.8%, Perfect Stranger up 11.6% and CTC down -0.7%.

FY27 store opening guidance of 16–20 was reaffirmed, with seven additional stores scheduled before Christmas. Gross margins continue to benefit from Perfect Stranger's expansion, although higher operating costs and depreciation are expected to weigh on EBIT margins.

FY27/FY28 EPS forecasts are trimmed by -0.8%/-1.2%, respectively, and the analyst remains positive on the resilience of younger consumers, store expansion and medium-term margin opportunities.

Buy retained, with the target price reduced to $9.00 from $9.25.