OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Bell Potter rates EVN as Buy

Bell Potter observes Evolution Mining delivered record FY26 financial metrics, strong free cash flow (FCF) and significant balance sheet improvement.

The board declared a fully franked final dividend of 21c, below the broker's 25c forecast, bringing FY26 distributions to 41c. The broker highlights an increased dividend payout target of around 60% of group cash flow.

FY26 revenue of $5.56bn and underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $3.17bn reflected strong operations and effectively unhedged gold exposure, the analysts explain. FY27 production and cost guidance broadly matched Bell Potter's expectations.

FY27, FY28 and FY29 EPS forecasts fall -6%, -3% and -3%, respectively, following updated production and cost assumptions.

Bell Potter raises its target to $15.55 from $15.10 and maintains its Buy rating.

Citi rates SGP as Buy

Following Stockland's FY26 results, Citi raises its target by 30c to $5.40 and maintains a Buy rating.

On further inspection, Citi stresses the data centre opportunity as extending beyond FY27, with seven sites capable of generating profits from land transfers, development fees and post-completion gains.

Funding requirements may be lower than feared as some sites could be sold as powered land.

MPC margins are expected to decline from FY26's 21.2% as higher-margin projects roll off, although more than 3,800 pre-sales provide solid volume visibility and July's sales slowdown stabilised in August.

Capital is being redirected from office into data centres, logistics and land lease, while the cost of debt is expected to rise to 5.9% in FY27 from 5.3%. Buy rated. Target $5.40.

In an early review, Citi remains positive on Stockland following today's strong FY26 result and FY27 guidance 6% above consensus, supported by data centre development profits.

FY26 funds from operations (FFO) of 36.9cpu was 1% above consensus, while residential settlements of 8,902 also exceeded expectations.

FY27 FFO guidance of 38cpu-39cpu implies to the analyst around 4% growth, with data centre profits the key source of the guidance beat.

Net tangible assets (NTA) rose 4% to $4.39 per security, leaving Stockland trading at an -8% net tangible asset (NTA) discount, Citi highlights.

Bell Potter rates WHC as Hold

Bell Potter remains cautious on the outlook for Whitehaven Coal after FY26 underlying earnings missed forecasts and FY27 production and cost guidance underwhelmed.

FY26 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $1.25bn and profit of $227m missed forecasts, reflecting higher operating and interest costs, the analysts explain.

FY27 guidance is for managed run-of-mine (ROM) production of 38.0-41.0Mt and equity coal sales of 23.9-26.0Mt, compared with 40.3Mt and 26.0Mt in FY26, respectively.

Narrabri faces a nine-week longwall changeout and inflation and currency pressures remain cost headwinds, the analysts highlight.

FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts fall to 19c and 33c from 39c and 51c, respectively, while FY29 falls -5%. Bell Potter lowers its target to $7.50 from $8.05 and maintains its Hold rating.