OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Morgans rates CYL as Buy

Catalyst Metals' 1Q27 production of 22.2koz fell -30% q/q and was -23% below Morgans' forecast, impacted by staffing shortages and an extended plant shutdown.

AISC of $4,267/oz was 45% above forecast as fixed costs were spread over fewer ounces. Cash and bullion rose $40m to $371m, with total liquidity of $571m, the analyst notes.

FY27 production guidance of 90koz-105koz was well below consensus of 125koz, with contributions from Trident, Old Highway and Cinnamon deferred into FY28.

The broker cuts FY27 production forecasts to 94.4koz from 125.5koz and lifts forecast AISC to $4,243/oz. Buy retained. Target reduced to $9.66 from $11.33.

Bell Potter rates GMG as Hold

Goodman Group's 1Q27 update confirmed FY27 operating EPS growth guidance of 9% y/y, in line with Bell Potter's forecast but below consensus of 11%. Distribution guidance remains at 30cps.

Development yield on cost increased to 8.3% from 8.2%, while the data centre power bank expanded to 6.6GW from 6.4GW, driven by Europe, the analyst notes. Portfolio weighted average capitalisation rates compressed -10bp to 4.9%, despite higher funding costs.

No additional data centre leasing milestones were announced, although management highlighted rising market rents supporting development returns.

The broker remains cautious around project delivery timelines. FY27-FY29 EPS forecasts are tweaked slightly with the analyst stressing growing capital requirements and execution risks associated with the data centre pipeline.

Hold retained. Target reduced to $29.90 from $30.10.

Macquarie rates TCG as Outperform

Turaco Gold will raise $130m to fund the acquisition of the remaining 20% of the Afema project from Sodim for US$79m. Consideration is $30m cash, 55.1m in scrip and 36.7m in unlisted options.

Sodim will hold a 0.33% net smelter return with Turaco having buyback rights and a contingent resource payment.

Afema is expected to produce around 204,000 ounces over a seven-year period at AISC of US$1508/oz. Macquarie assesses Turaco as a large, low-cost producer in a relatively stable jurisdiction.

Outperform rated with a $1 target.