OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates FLT as Outperform

Flight Centre Travel will buy Iglu, the UK’s leading online cruise agency, for GBP100m upfront plus up to GBP27m earn-outs, equating to 7.25x FY26 estimated EBITDA including synergies.

Macquarie notes Iglu is expected to deliver FY26 pro forma TTV of around GBP450m and adj. EBITDA of around GBP14.8m, and the deal is guided to be EPS accretive in FY26. Flight Centre lifted FY26 underlying profit before tax guidance to $315-350m to reflect Iglu's contribution.

The acquisition nearly doubles the company's cruise TTV to $2bn in FY26, with a stretch target of $3bn by FY28 and adds a scalable online platform, reducing leisure’s Southern Hemisphere skew.

The broker highlights cruise margin is attractive, with Iglu's FY25 EBITDA margin around 40% higher than Flight Centre's 2.2% for the leisure division.

Outperform. Target rises to $17.85 from $16.85.

UBS rates NAB as Neutral

UBS upgraded National Australia Bank's FY26-28 EPS forecasts by 1.8%, 2.2% and 1.1%, respectively after factoring in two RBA rate hike expectations over FY26 and lifted net interest margin estimates as a result.

The bank's AGM highlighted leadership and capability changes, the broker notes, and increased use of AI in cybersecurity and home-loan origination.

The bank reiterated its commitment to the strategic priorities set out last year, and the broker notes business banking outperformed but the bank now needs to focus on net interest margin.  Proprietary home-loan origination trailed peers, with AI seen as a lever to improve speed and customer experience.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $42.50.

Citi rates TWE as Sell

Looking at the latest CBEC (cross border e-commerce) prices, Citi notes Bin 389 and Bin 407 prices are higher, which aligns with the previous channel check.

The analyst does highlight the CBEC price gap versus offline is a "key" concern.

Sell retained for Treasury Wine Estates. Target unchanged at $5.11.