OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates FRW as Outperform

First quarter earnings from Freightways rose 12.9%, which Macquarie assesses was a resilient outcome amidst subdued freight markets. Revenue rose 17.6% and net profit 12.0%, while the quality of growth was mixed.

The broker points out underlying activity remains soft and while acquisitions, market share and efficiency continue to lead, a cyclical recovery is dependent on lower fuel prices. Outperform rating and NZ$15.65 target.

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform

Liontown's September-quarter production missed the consensus estimate by around -20%, with underground ramp-up challenges overshadowing stronger sales and revenue, Macquarie explains.

The broker lowers its FY27 production to near the bottom of unchanged guidance, reflecting a conservative ramp-up outlook.

Near-term spodumene price assumptions fall -31–36%, contributing to the analyst's FY27–FY31 earnings per share forecast cuts ranging from -10% to over -100%. A loss is now expected in FY27.

The target falls -38% to $0.75 from $1.20 on the weaker earnings outlook. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating.

Citi rates SUN as Neutral

Suncorp Group has briefed investors on the third phase of what it considers is the way towards a simplified insurer. Citi finds it hard to evaluate at this stage whether there are meaningful competitive advantages that will have a sustainable impact on earnings prospects.

GWP growth guidance was also trimmed to 3% from 3%-5%, allowing for a more adverse AUD:NZD exchange rate and a lost commercial contract worth $125m. Still, underlying growth appears to be tracking a little better than the broker previously forecast.

The underlying insurance margin guidance is unchanged at the top half of a 10%-12% range. Citi revises EPS estimates down by -1% for FY27 and up by 0.3% for FY28. Neutral. Target edges down to $19.75 from $19.80.