OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates INA as Neutral

Ingenia Communities has received a revised takeover proposal from Warburg Pincus at $5.60 per security, up 10c from its previous offer of $5.50, which was matched by AVID Group.

Citi highlights AVID retains matching rights, and Warburg's revised proposal is subject to several conditions, including access to due diligence by 10 November.

Notably, Ingenia's board is yet to determine whether the proposal constitutes a superior bid under the Peet Scheme Implementation Deed and has advised securityholders to take no action.

Citi sees an increased probability of a successful takeover. Neutral. Target $5.50.

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate

James Hardie Industries announced a stronger-than-expected September quarter, with adj EBITDA up 44% y/y and 10% ahead of consensus, Ord Minnett notes.

Management maintained FY27 guidance, implying a weaker 2H27 due to seasonality, softer housing demand and higher freight costs.

The analyst points out sales rose 15% in siding & trim and 51% in deck, rail & accessories, supported by market share gains, new distribution arrangements and favourable pricing/mix.

FY27 guidance is viewed as overly conservative given the strong 1H27 performance.

Notably, US housing and renovation demand continues to weaken, creating uncertainty for FY28, although market share gains, improving product mix and further price increases from January 2027 should support margins.

FY27 EPS forecast rises 3%, with EBITDA expected at the top end of guidance.

Accumulate retained with the target price increased to $43 from $41.

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform

Macquarie cuts its FY27–FY29 earnings forecasts for Qantas Airways by -12%, -4% and -2%, respectively, reflecting higher fuel costs and slower capacity growth.

The broker notes strong travel demand, although domestic capacity reductions of -4%–5% suggest higher ticket prices are dampening demand.

Fuel costs are expected to worsen by -$60m in the first half and -$250m in the second half of FY27.

Lower oil prices could provide earnings upside, while fleet renewal and Project Sunrise offer longer-term growth opportunities, according to Macquarie.

Unchanged Outperform rating and target of $10.10.