OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates AMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

AMP's September quarter update shows strong momentum, assesses Citi. Net inflows into the North platform increased 60% year-on-year and were only slightly below the typically strong second quarter.

Adviser engagement is increasing and a potential reduction in competition from a major rival could further support growth, highlights the broker, although wealth and superannuation & investments flows turned negative.

Citi points to improved retention efforts and a growing likelihood of a FY25 capital return.

The broker raises its FY25, FY26, and FY27 earnings forecasts by 1%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. The target is raised to $2.10 from $2.00 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy after a strong recent share price performance.

Citi rates IFT as Buy

Infratil has announced a 40MW data centre contract for its 49.75%-owned Canberra Data Centres (CDC) with Firmus Technologies in Melbourne, with delivery expected from April 2026, which Citi views as a key milestone.

The broker notes this marks the first stage of a new partnership between CDC, Firmus, and Nvidia, with Firmus targeting more than $73bn of data centre development by 2028, highlighting further upside potential.

Citi observes the agreement secures CDC’s goal of doubling earnings (EBITDA) between FY25 and FY27 and expects upside to net asset value (NAV) and a narrowing price-to-NAV discount.

Citi retains a Buy rating with a NZ$14.10 target price.

Morgans rates STO as Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim

Santos announced 3Q2025 production at 21.3mmboe, around -4% down on the prior quarter and below consensus by -3% and Morgans forecast.

Sales of US$1,129m fell -12% on the prior quarter and missed consensus/Morgans by -5% and -7%, respectively.

The miss was attributed to maintenance in WA and Cooper flood recovery. On a positive note, Barossa delivered first gas and the initial LNG cargo is still targeted for 4Q2025.

Production guidance for 2025 also declined to 89-91mmboe from around 92mmboe, with higher second half capex in WA due to maintenance.

Morgans highlights sentiment has been hit by the failure of the Adnoc deal, and the share price is viewed as oversold. The stock is upgraded to Accumulate from Trim with a lower target of $6.80 from $7.20.