OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Shaw and Partners rates COG as Initiation of coverage with Buy

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage of COG Financial Services with a Buy (High risk) rating and a $2.45 target price. The broker's proposition is simple: an expectation of double-digit EPS growth for FY26 to FY28, which is not factored by the market.

The analyst highlights COG is a diverse mid-cap financial services company operating in novated leasing and salary packaging, finance, broking and aggregation, as well as asset management and lending.

Under a revitalised board with Tony Robinson as Chair, the company is aiming to accelerate the growth of a capital-light broking business.

The broker stresses COG throws off substantial free cash flow and is estimated to be trading around a 10% FY26 free cash flow yield.

Morgans rates NGI as Initiation of coverage with Buy

Morgans has initiated coverage of Navigator Global Investments with a Buy rating and target price of $3.45.

The company owns minority stakes in 11 high-quality alternative asset managers across hedge funds, private markets, credit, macro, commodities and derivatives. Its scalable, capital-light partnership model provides diversified, resilient earnings and strong growth potential via adding new manager relationships.

The aim is to double EBITDA over five years, supported by operating capability, self-funded growth, and a large pipeline of acquisition opportunities. 

Growing investor appetite for private market strategies, together with ongoing fundraising by Navigator's partner firms, underpins a stronger net inflow outlook over the coming year, the broker reckons.

At 13x FY26 estimated PE and an -8% discount to the valuation, the broker views the stock as undervalued. 

Citi rates PRU as Neutral, High Risk

Robex Resources ((RXR)) made a counteroffer to Perseus Mining's superior offer to buy the remaining stake in Predictive Discovery ((PDI)).

Citi describes it as "equal" offer, as Robex offered Predictive a 53.5% stake in the merged company, below the 63.5% stake the analyst previously estimated would be needed to match Perseus' $0.778/sh bid.

The broker notes Predictive's share price fell -11% and the company's management argued the proposal matches Perseus’ 24.5% premium once the MergeCo’s superior medium/long-term value is considered.

The broker reckons Perseus is now in a tricky position as its original bid still carries a 24.5% premium to the current Predictive price. And while it likely remains interested in the Bankan mine, it must reassess how much additional premium it is willing to pay.

Neutral, High Risk maintained for Perseus. Target unchanged at $4.80.