OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform

In a cost base and margin comparison between Orica and Dyno Nobel ((DNL)), Macquarie highlights more details are anticipated for Orica as part of management's "refresh program" in March.

The new Chairman post the Oct 16 AGM, Vil Bansal, has a robust track record of achieving cost-outs in his former position as CEO of Boral, the analyst states.

Dyno Nobel's EBIT margins are higher than Orica's with an ongoing $300m transformation program. Macquarie forecasts Dyno Nobel's FY27 EBIT margin to be 15.9% in the first full year of explosives, which sits 250bps above Orica's 13.4% comparable margin.

The analyst believes there are pathways to narrow the gap with cost-outs and a change in earnings mix.

Target price remains at $25.95 with an Outperform rating. No change to earnings forecasts.

Morgans rates SYL as Buy

Symal Group is acquiring Timms Group and L&D Contracting’s QLD civil/haulage businesses for $28m cash at 3.5x EBITDA, plus an earn-out. 

Morgans considers the acquisition as a good fit to the company's strategy to broaden geography and sectors. The move into South East Queensland strengthens its East Coast footprint and exposure to major infrastructure work.

The company expects $8m FY26 EBITDA and first-year EPS accretion from the deal. The broker revised its forecasts, leading to a 4% lift in FY26 EPS forecast and a 3% increase to FY27.

Buy. Target rises to $3.75 from $2.40, with the bulk of the increase coming from the unwind of the discount to valuation.

Citi rates TWE as Sell

Citi's analysis of the latest Nielsen data (4 weeks to 29 November) showed Treasury Americas sales were down -14% versus market's -4% drop. This was a worsening from the prior period's -10% fall.

Within luxury, DAOU (49% of Treasury Americas net sales revenue) eked out 3% growth, while Frank Family plunged -17%, its steepest drop in 10 months. Premium brands were mixed, with 19 Crimes still very weak, down -25%, but Matua steady at 4% growth.

The broker reminds that while Nielsen has coverage gaps, it’s still viewed as a useful read-through, especially for the off-premise-heavy luxury mix and tracking 19 Crimes.

Sell retained for Treasury Wine Estates. Target unchanged at $5.11.