OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates FCL as Buy

Post the initial take below, Citi lifts the target price to $3.05 from $2.95. The stock remains Buy rated.

The analyst upgrades FY26 revenue forecast on strong subscription momentum and earnings forecasts by 7% as operating leverage starts to kick in.

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On a first glance, Citi notes Fineos Corp reported first half profit slightly ahead of consensus, with both revenue and earnings in line with the broker's forecast.

Acceleration in annual recurring revenue growth and strong subscription revenue growth are positives, while a lower gross margin, weaker Services revenue and lower operating cash flow due to timing of receipts were negatives.

An in-line result and the strong ARR growth suggests that Fineos should be on-track to hit the mid-point of its revenue guidance. Citi sees potential for the share price to react positively to the ARR growth. Buy and $2.95 target retained.

UBS rates ORA as Neutral

On further reflection after the FY26 results from Orora, UBS retains a Neutral rating, with the stock trading at a one-year forward PE of around 15x.

Resumption of the share buyback following a pause to allow the company to monitor the situation in the Middle East should provide support to the share price, commentary suggests.

UBS also envisages capacity for further capital management. Target is reduced to $1.65 from $1.70.

First take:

At first glance, UBS points out Orora's FY26 EBIT of $248m fell -5% but was in line with consensus, with stronger Cans earnings offset by continued weakness at Saverglass.

The analyst highlights 6.3% Cans volume growth, strong operating cash flow and the resumption of the share buyback as positives, while net debt of $481m left leverage at a manageable 1.2x.

Saverglass remains the key negative, the broker emphasises, with EBIT falling -18% despite higher volumes as weaker product mix weighed on earnings, while a -$743m non-cash impairment reflects a delayed recovery in premium spirits demand.

FY27 group EBIT is expected to decline, broadly in line with expectations, as growth in Cans and stable Gawler earnings are offset by further Saverglass weakness amid tariffs, Middle East disruption and adverse price and mix effects.

Neutral rated. Target $1.70.

Bell Potter rates TLS as Hold

Bell Potter maintains a Hold rating for Telstra Group with its target price decreased to $4.80 from $5.10 following an in-line FY26 financial result.

The company reported underlying EBITDAaL of $8,341m and cash EBIT of $4,659m, though a -1% miss on total income expectations to $23,405m largely reflected weakness in the International division.

An announced $1.0bn share buyback matched the prior year's starting position, with the 10.5c final dividend meeting expectations.

The broker's estimates factor in a -1% downgrade to underlying EBITDAaL alongside slight increases in business-as-usual capital expenditure, driving -2%-3% cuts to cash EBIT forecasts over FY27 and FY28.

The analyst notes the lowered target price reflects reduced valuation multiples applied to both the mobile business and group earnings given the potential risk of increased competition stemming from the ongoing ACCC wholesale mobile services enquiry.