OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

UBS rates ALL as Buy

UBS notes US commercial gaming revenues announced so far are up 7% y/y in October, a robust acceleration from September.

Aristocrat Leisure's land-based slots indexed 2.27x versus zone in October versus 2.35x in September and 2.37x a year earlier.

Light & Wonder ((LNW)) was next at 1.79x versus 1.85x in September and 1.76x in the previous year, all based on industry data (Eilers).

Phoenix Link and Dragon Link boosted Aristocrat's installed base growth, with its Spooky Link remaining number one, while Light & Wonder's Piggy Bankin' remains robust in third place.

Buy rating and $206 target maintained.

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy

Bell Potter outlines key drivers for COG Financial Services' earnings growth from FY26-27, including revised interest rate expectations. Acquisitions are expected to contribute 13%, and the broker sees 17% organic growth as possible to reach over 30% in  FY26.

Insurance broking is expected to rebound -$0.5m headwind in FY25, with earnings seen up 2% from volume normalisation alone.  
Broking & aggregation is showing early recovery, with national credit demand up 3% y/y, the broker highlights.

A flatter rate curve implies FY26 average rates of 3.61% vs 4.24% in FY25, and is expected to drive 5% EBITDA growth in broking & aggregation and boost mortgage volumes, benefiting Equity-one.

Novated leasing outlook is stronger with vehicle import growth and restocking, solid private demand, BEV surge, and 18 tender wins implying 18% settlement growth flowing into FY27.

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 upgraded by 2%. Buy. Target unchanged at 2.7%

Macquarie rates HVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform

Harvey Norman's trading update at the AGM showed FY26 year-to-date Australian sales are supported by replacement demand, but momentum hasn’t really accelerated since the Jul-25 update, Macquarie observes.

Internationally (NZ, Malaysia, UK) sales trends have improved sequentially, with the UK showing encouraging early traction as a longer-term growth option, the broker notes. 

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 2% and FY27 by 3% on better-than-expected sales so far, both in Australia and offshore. Target rises to $7.60 from $7.40.

After a 30% share re-rating over 12 months, a 50% share price rise, and expectations the RBA rate cut cycle is done, risk/reward looks balanced, prompting a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.