OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Citi rates AX1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy

After a detailed review, Citi downgraded Accent Group to Neutral from Buy, noting risk from weak lifestyle sales. Limited further cost flexibility, and elevated key-person risk are expected to outweigh improving comps and stable margins.

Target trimmed to $1.08 from $1.83.

Previous commentary from the broker follows:

In an early assessment, Citi describes today's Accent Group AGM update as sharply weaker than expected, with year-to-date like-for-like sales down -0.4% vs consensus of 2.15%. Gross margins were also -160bps lower, against expectations for a rise.

The broker notes FY26 guidance relies on a 2H26 recovery in both sales and margins, both difficult to justify.

Management cut 1H26 earnings (EBIT) guidance to $55-60m (from around an implied $80.7m), around -28% below the consensus forecast. FY26 EBIT of $85-95m was a -23% downgrade at the midpoint, observe the analysts.

While October like-for-like sales lifted to 0.4%, Citi doubts the market will place any weight on this, given the scale of the guidance downgrade.

Bell Potter rates GTK as Buy

Bell Potter notes Gentrack Group's FY25 result was broadly in line with consensus, delivering revenue of NZ$230.2m and EBITDA of NZ$27.8m. This compared with the broker's forecast of NZ$233m and NZ$29m, respectively.

Strong comments on the project pipeline sparked a solid share price lift and improved confidence in near-term contract wins and growth, the broker highlights. The company stated landing 3-4 of the current pipeline opportunities would underpin strong FY27 growth.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -1% but FY27 lifted by 2%. Target rises to $11.00 from $9.80 on DCF roll-forward. 

Buy retained.

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform

Following a 6.5-for-1 share consolidation, Macquarie's target price for Vault Minerals is $6.50 from $1.00.

Outperform maintained.