OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform

Macquarie points out Boss Energy has signalled its aim to reach 2.5Mlbs/yr production in early 2030s from Honeymoon, once Jason's Deposit and Gould's Dam are on stream.

Management is aiming for early 2030 production for Jason's Deposit with Gould's Dam targeting early 2031. Using existing infrastructure this is expected to reduce AISC by -$12/lb into early 2030s.

The analyst applauds the new mindset and modelling "rigour" brought forth by Oliver Regnault's experience indicating solid wellfield designs at Honeymoon. Modelling now infers -46% fewer wells and 28% higher concentrations of ore.

EPS forecasts are raised by 5% for FY27 and 4% for FY28. Honeymoon is only 16% contracted and has high leverage to rising U308 prices, the broker points out.

Outperform retained with a higher target of $2 from $1.80 on the inclusion of Jason's and Gould's Dam developments.

UBS rates IAG as Buy

UBS highlights softening US commercial insurance pricing as a growing headwind for QBE Insurance.

US commercial premium rates are now rising more slowly than claims inflation, with pricing pressure most pronounced in commercial property and large accounts, the analysts explain. Liability lines remain relatively resilient.

The broker sees increasing risk that weaker pricing spreads to liability lines as insurers optimise capital and capacity. It is felt this will create further pressure on QBE's US non-Crop combined operating ratio (COR) in FY27.

Despite potential FY26 earnings upside from a benign US hurricane season and stronger Crop commodity prices, UBS continues to favour domestic general insurers. Insurance Australia Group is the broker's preferred exposure.

Unchanged Buy rating and $9.25 target for Insurance Australia Group.

Citi rates NUF as Neutral

Citi highlights El Nino conditions and high input costs as the key risks for Australian agricultural companies heading into FY27.

While conditions improved in Australia, the broker points to difficult conditions in Europe and North America for agricultural chemical providers during the second half of FY26.

Citi retains its Neutral rating on Nufarm, with a revised $3.40 target, up from $2.95.