OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

Morgans rates CUV as Downgrade to Trim from Hold

Morgans notes Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals' competitor Disc Medicine is raising US$350m to launch its EPP Ph3 product, where the topline data is stronger than Scenesse on cross-trial comparison.

The broker's main concern is its long-flagged scenario of a large threat to Clinuvel's only revenue, and the investment case is seen diminished amid increased competition in EPP.

The stock is assessed as a trade around catalysts like the CUV105 top-line and the outcome of NASDAQ/de-listing rather than being held through the cycle. There is also significant risk seen around alternative therapies and potential generic competition.

Rating is downgraded to Trim from Hold. Target falls to $7 from $10.

Citi rates NXT as Buy

Citi explains NextDC's power update points to further earnings delays as approvals for the M3 expansion and transformer upgrades take longer than expected.

Management has cut FY27 net revenue guidance by -$140m and earnings (EBITDA) guidance by -$140m-$145m, excluding all revenue from the affected customer contracts, including revenue already being billed.

The revised guidance excludes potential service level credits, so Citi says the final impact could be greater.

Citi also flags delays to M3 expansion approvals and further power upgrades, putting earnings beyond FY27 at risk. Customer termination rights and the potential effect of service credits on a debt covenant add uncertainty.

Management has also lowered FY27 capital expenditure guidance to -$4.5bn-$5.0bn from -$5.25bn-$5.75bn. It's felt this spending restraint will help protect debt covenants but may weaken the company's medium-term competitive position.

Target $21.15. Buy.

Macquarie rates SIG as Outperform

Against a very challenging macro backdrop, Macquarie views Sigma Healthcare's AGM update as strong with Chemist Warehouse (CW) Australian like-for-like sales growth of 9.8%, despite softness in categories where consumers can trade down.

Management continues to see positive tailwinds from beauty, healthcare and GLP-1 adjacent products and the broker remains positive on the domestic network sales remaining at current levels.

There was no change to the earnings outlook with Sigma Healthcare H27 double-digit revenue and earnings growth expected as outlined at the FY26 result.

International was viewed as solid and Macquarie forecasts a 3-year EPS CAGR of around 20%.

Target price is trimmed by -3% to $3.10 and the Outperform rating is retained.