OUR QUEST IS NOT TO BE BULLISH OR BEARISH, BUT TO CORRECTLY ASSESS FUTURE TRENDS

UBS rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Sell

UBS upgrades Northern Star Resources to Buy from Sell with a lower target of $24.70 from $28, pointing to the share price decline of some -40% over the last month as excessive following a disappointing operational update.

The analyst's production outlook is highlighted as "conservative", sitting some -13% below consensus for FY27-FY31, with rationalisation of the portfolio incorporating the sale of lower margin, shorter life assets as a pathway to further re-rating upside.

Market consensus is viewed as still too optimistic in the short term. UBS models 1.65Moz at an AISC of around $3,080/oz and -$2.4bn in capex, versus consensus at circa 2.35Moz at $3,000/oz and -$3.0bn capex.

EPS forecasts are lowered by -24% for FY26 and -26% for FY27/FY28.

Bell Potter rates PGC as Buy

Paragon Care’s long-term growth is underpinned by expansion in Asian medical technology and pharmacy distribution, suggests Bell Potter.

The integration of Chemist Warehouse Group’s wholesale distribution business is nearing completion, with ongoing cost-out initiatives and the new Brisbane distribution centre expected to deliver meaningful savings.

The broker flags inflationary pressures, particularly rising diesel and distribution costs, as a key risk, with limited ability to pass these on to price-sensitive pharmacy customers.

Progress on the Infinity Group recovery provides potential upside, though timing remains uncertain. Infinity is a group of pharmacies and related entities that went into administration/receivership.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and raises its target to 30c from 29c.

Citi rates RHC as Neutral

While the analyst at Citi sees rising investor interest in Ramsay Health Care, driven by the potential separation of Ramsay Sante, the stock is considered fairly valued at current levels.

Increased digital investment in the Australian business may weigh on near-term earnings, the broker suggests, with benefits expected longer term.

Citi lowers its UK revenue growth forecasts following weaker read-through from peers, while also incorporating higher costs and the pending National Capital Private Hospital acquisition.

The target falls to $39.00 from $41.40. Neutral rating maintained.