Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 26-06-26

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday June 22 to Friday June 26, 2026
Total Upgrades: 6
Total Downgrades: 11
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.06%; Hold 27.31%; Sell 6.64%

An Australian share market that is barely keeping its head above water midway through 2026 is battling downgrades to earnings forecasts, targets and ratings from analysts at local stockbrokerages.

With only two sessions left in June, the ASX200 has a 0.57% gain left to defend year-to-date, excluding dividends.

The average domestic investor is staring with full-blown envy at offshore markets, where the Nikkei225 boasts a gain of more than 37% and even the weak UK economy still has a market that is outperforming the ASX200, having advanced 5.7% thus far.

For the week ending Friday, June 26, 2026, FNArena registered six upgrades for individual ASX-listed stocks, of which only half went to a Buy, and eleven downgrades, mostly to a Neutral/Hold rating.

Trends in adjustments are visibly skewed to the downside, as companies including Baby Bunting, Jumbo Interactive and Worley continue to issue profit warnings amid tough operational conditions.

The one question on investors’ and analysts’ minds is whether subdued outlooks are already reflected in today’s prices, as many stocks have been de-rated over recent months.

This is one key reason why the Australian share market is lagging its offshore equivalents this year.

The second-most-asked question, no doubt, is whether general conditions might improve once tax-loss selling has run its course.

We shall all find out in three days’ time. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains, erm, let’s call it ‘fluid’.

Consensus forecasts are still positioned for a strong outcome for the current financial year and for FY27, but that’s mostly related to the mining and energy sectors, while forecasts remain in a persistent downtrend.

Best not to get blinded by the 12% EPS growth forecast for both FY26 and FY27; details matter.

For the past week, EchoIQ and Ingenia Communities Group stand out in the rankings for positive changes to price targets, with the week’s table generally featuring small moves.

AI-healthcare software developer EchoIQ signed a binding heads of agreement with Pro Medicus, creating a proposed strategic investment and US commercial partnership.

Pro Medicus is to invest an initial $10m via secured convertible notes, with an option for another $10m if EchoIQ receives FDA clearance for EchoSolv HF. It could also become a US reseller of EchoIQ’s EchoSolv product suite.

EchoIQ is reportedly planning a $100m capital raising.

Real estate developer Ingenia Communities Group, which operates in seniors living and holiday communities, released a positive trading update, providing brokers with an opportunity to repeat their Buy ratings after what had been an elongated downtrend in its shares since September last year.

The RBA’s repeated rate hikes in 2026 are just one headwind that is now –potentially– in the rear-view mirror.

Aforementioned profit warnings pretty much guarantee the larger changes sit on the negative side, led by Judo Capital, followed by IDP Education, Jumbo Interactive, Baby Bunting, and Beach Energy.

Analysts are still recalibrating their models for IDP Education. Jumbo Interactive received a major downgrade from Morgan Stanley during the week. Others have been lowering their energy price forecasts.

As shown in the week’s top ten positive updates to earnings forecasts, virtually nothing is happening at that end. The numbers are more respectable on the flip side, without looking spectacular by anyone’s assessment.

Still, there is a trend, and it’s not a positive one.

Apart from EchoIQ and the issuers of profit warnings, last week’s earnings estimates also went south for energy companies, as analysts anticipated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and prepared for –on balance– lower energy prices.

The current share market polarisation continues to be reflected in 66% Buy-equivalent ratings from the seven stockbrokers monitored daily, with 27.31% on Neutral/Hold and the remaining 6.64% on Sell-equivalent ratings.

History suggests such large skew towards Buy ratings is normally reserved for prolonged bear markets, but anno 2026 it signals a market in which a smaller group of companies supports the index and a larger majority remains bereft from money flows, momentum and investor interest.

It’s tough out there, and tricky at the same time.

Upgrade

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Citi raises its target for a2 Milk Co to $6.70 from $5.85 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell after analysing May 2026 New Zealand sea and airport freight data.

While the broker’s FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecast sits -17% below consensus, it’s felt investors may be willing to look through near-term challenges if progress in rebuilding market share is demonstrated.

Management still faces work to restore distribution channels and reinvest in its brand, Citi suggests, but evidence of market share gains could improve sentiment towards the stock.

Separately, Citi notes today’s ASX release stating Chinese regulators approved the transfer of two infant formula registrations to the a2 brand.

At first glance, the broker considers this announcement particularly positive given the regulatory uncertainty surrounding such approvals.

The registrations allow a2 to expand its China-label product range, reduce reliance on birth-rate-driven demand and lessen supply-chain dependence on Synlait Milk ((SM1)), Citi explains.

Citi believes the approvals support longer-term market share growth and could eventually contribute more than NZ$100m in additional annual sales by FY30.

The broker also expects a special dividend of NZ$300m to be announced shortly. 

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Ord Minnett has a positive take on Baby Bunting’s FY26 trading update, highlighting pro-forma net profit after tax to rise between 32%-40%, although the update is lower than management’s prior guidance, by -11%.

The analyst notes sales growth of 6% for FY26 is now flagged which is slightly below forecast with 2H26 comparable store sales coming in around -3% below management’s target of 6%-8% growth.

Gross margins are expected to be above 41% for FY26 with 2H26 coming at around 41.5%.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts by -5% to -9% for FY26-FY28 and upgrades the stock to Buy from Accumulate.

Target price slips to $2.30 from $2.80.

COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Citi upgrades Collins Foods to Buy from Neutral, due to the share price decline of some -14% since March 23, with a new target price of $10.30 from $10.45.

The analyst points out the QSR operator will be cycling a “modest” FY26 trading update across all its geographic regions. 

Other indications from KFC suggest the Australian business has remained resilient for most of FY26.

Ongoing inflationary pressures remain a potential risk and challenge to the upgrade, the broker explains.

KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Macquarie upgrades Karoon Energy to Neutral from Underperform post the selloff in the shares after last week’s guidance downgrade,

The share price currently infers a oil price of around US$69.6/bbl down from US$74/bbl on June 16, the analyst points out.

Karoon is due to announce its 2Q2026 quarterly update on July 23. Macquarie is forecasting 1.47MMboe production which is some 4.3% above consensus and revenue of US$138.7m, 14% above consensus.

The broker emphasises the energy producer is very sensitive to the oil price with “significant leverage”. 

Karoon remains a 2027 story, the report concludes. No change to target price of $1.50.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/2

Macquarie upgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Outperform from Neutral, believing China’s export controls could delay rare earth supply growth and tighten the market. This will reinforce Lynas’ strategic premium as the largest ex-China separated rare earth producer.

A key differentiator, the broker points out, is confirmation by Lynas management that reagents and equipment for current operations expansion will be sourced outside China. Target rises to $22 from $20.

China’s Ministry of Commerce has added 10 US industrial and defence-linked entities to its export control list, prohibiting exports of Chinese-origin dual-use materials and technologies to these companies and relevant third-party suppliers.

RESIMAC GROUP LIMITED ((RMC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Citi’s recent industry discussions show housing loan volumes are easing but remain “resilient” while investor loan applications are down between -10% to -20% post the federal budget.

The analyst believes the risks have a downside skew for greater falls and expects investor loan growth to decline by around -30% y/y in FY27.

Accordingly, EPS forecasts are downgraded across non-banks by the broker for FY27 by between -2% to -13%.

Positive tailwinds for funding are largely intact which is anticipated to support margins. Citi remains “constructive” on the sector, due to the valuation (between 6x-9x PER) and established through the cycle value offering.

Resimac Group is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target price is cut to 75c from 80c.

Downgrade

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Following Berry Global merger, management identified around US$2.5bn in non-core revenue across lower-growth or lower-margin businesses lacking scale or leadership positions, Morgans explains.

The broker believes these assets could be worth approximately US$1.8bn and notes agreements have already been reached to sell six businesses for around US$500m.

Proceeds are expected to be used to reduce leverage. The analyst expects a share price re-rating given leverage’s strong historical inverse relationship with Amcor’s forward PE multiple.

Morgans maintains its $65.40 target for Amcor and downgrades its rating to Accumulate from Buy on valuation.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/5

Morgans downgrades Beach Energy to Sell from Hold, taking into account weaker spot gas prices as well as reducing Waitsia output forecasts for FY26-FY28, being already disappointed with the ramp up from Waitsia.

Conviction has already been affected by repeated project and operating issues and the broker remains cautious on how the company will tackle constrained reserves given the current balance sheet.

Recent share price weakness reflects the easing of spot gas prices because of softer seasonal demand but Morgans considers a potential miss to guidance a more material risk to market sentiment. Target is reduced to $0.81 from $1.10.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Centuria Capital is undertaking a fully underwritten $300m equity raising at $2.00 per share to accelerate growth in its ResetData platform and real estate funds management business.

Macquarie notes ResetData’s expansion could ultimately require more than $300m of equity and is unlikely to be profitable before FY28, with earnings dependent on securing higher-margin customer contracts.

The broker raises its earnings forecasts but downgrades its rating to Underperform from Outperform on valuation grounds.

While acknowledging the option value in ResetData, Macquarie believes the business remains unproven and would prefer evidence of profitable contract wins before assigning greater value. The target rises to $1.88 from $1.78.

It’s also noted interest rate expectations remain critical for capital flows for the Centuria real estate funds management business.

INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Macquarie believes AI increases the risk of disruption for Australia’s insurance providers and, although back-office cost savings are obvious, remains sceptical about whether costs will decrease.

Incumbents are considered at a disadvantage because of their complex technology infrastructure. Macquarie considers it inevitable that Australian regulators will impose additional capital restrictions on Australian financial services firms.

Insurance Australia Group is considered most at risk from medium-term trends and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $8.50 from $9.00.

JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Judo Capital has reduced guidance for FY26 pre-tax profit by -9%–11%, citing increased bad and doubtful debt provisions related to three borrowers in different sectors.

Ord Minnett is greatly concerned, given the speed at which conditions for these three specific exposures deteriorated, which raises questions as to just how rigorous and reliable the company’s monitoring processes are.

The broker also highlights the large size of the particular loans, with a combined exposure of $80m, versus the company’s average loan size to its key SME clients of around $3m.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target lowered to $1.60 from $2.40.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgan Stanley downgrades Jumbo Interactive to Equal-weight from an Overweight rating with a lower target price of $8.40 from $14.50.

The steep target price downgrade has resulted from the broker lowering Lottery total transaction volumes (TTV) assumptions by -11% and -14% for FY26-FY28.

Accordingly, EPS forecasts have been downgraded by -28% to -34% for FY26-FY28 on reduced ticket sales and higher D&A.

The analyst’s jackpot tracker infers year-to-date stocks are down -18% y/y with a further decline in rates over 2H26 to -27% h/h versus 1H26 sales of down -11% h/h.

Even though the stock is trading at a “trough” valuation multiple. Morgan Stanley sees little scope for a re-rating until growth improves and overhangs around UK regulations and The Lottery Corporation ((TLC)) are resolved.

Industry view: In Line.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ord Minnett points out Metcash’s trading update for the first seven weeks of FY27 came up short of expectations and consensus estimates.

Notably, the major food and liquor businesses grew at a run rate that is well below consensus outlook for FY27, albeit sales growth in hardware was robust.

The FY26 results met management guidance. The analyst flags a further erosion of trading conditions for the hardware segment over the next 6-12 months with a refreshed loyalty trade program for competitor Bunnings ((WES)) posing more potential challenges.

EPS forecasts are downgraded by -7.4% for FY27 and down -10.2% for FY28. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy with a lower target price of $3.50 from $3.70 due to the lower expected hardware growth.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Macquarie has increased its long term copper price forecast by 4% to US$4.63/lb with 10%/9%/7% increases from 2028-2030. Macquarie’s copper price outlook is now in line with consensus across all time horizons.

The broker’s updated long term price is some -25% below current spot copper prices of US$6.15/lb.

Movements in copper and zinc prices present the key risks to Macquarie’s earnings forecasts and valuation for Sandfire Resources. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform, target unchanged at $21.00.

TASMEA LIMITED ((TEA)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Tasmea to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds with a higher target price of $9.70 from $8.65.

This comes after the company announced it will acquire JPS Group for up to $75m, a specialist engineering and trade services provider.

The acquisition is expected to raise Tasmea’s FY26 EPS by 5% and offers sectoral and earnings diversification into LNG, gas, and “critical energy” infrastructure.

The analyst notes customers include Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)).

EPS forecasts are trimmed by -3.4% for FY26. FY27-FY28 EPS forecasts are raised by 3.5% and 4.4%, respectively.

Post the acquisition of Maxim earlier in May, Tasmea has announced the agreement to acquire JPS Group, which Morgans points out is a specialist integrated services provider to the energy sector.

The cost is $75m, including earn-outs with a $50m upfront payment, valuing the company at 5x FY26 earnings (EBIT).

The analyst notes JPS brings forth scale and growth to the underperforming Mechanical division. JPS is expected to double revenue by FY29.

Net profit after tax forecasts are upgraded by 6% for FY27 and 8% for FY28 with JPS assumed to continue to compound earnings growth around 20%.

EPS forecasts are lifted by 5% for FY27 and 6% for FY28. Target price rises to $9.80 from $9.15 with the rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy due to valuation.

WORLEY LIMITED ((WOR)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Worley has downgraded guidance for FY26 underlying EBITA, citing the Middle East war and now expecting a negative impact of around -$60m, well ahead of Ord Minnett’s prior expectations of -$45m. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

The company points out no customers have cancelled any projects but disruptions and delays remain an issue. No new contracts were being awarded amid uncertainty regarding the ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The broker reduces EPS estimates by -7.2% for FY26 and -8.2% for FY27, lowering the target to $12.70 from $13.10.

Ord Minnett also highlights the change in business mix, with a shift to engineering, procurement and construction work – a business segment that is higher risk – compared with the traditional consultancy and advisory.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Broker Rating

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker Upgrade 1 A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED Neutral Sell Citi 2 BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED Buy Buy Ord Minnett 3 COLLINS FOODS LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi 4 KAROON ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Sell Macquarie 5 LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie 6 RESIMAC GROUP LIMITED Neutral Sell Citi Downgrade 7 AMCOR PLC Buy Buy Morgans 8 BEACH ENERGY LIMITED Sell Neutral Morgans 9 CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP Sell Buy Macquarie 10 INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED Neutral Buy Macquarie 11 JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett 12 JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgan Stanley 13 METCASH LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett 14 SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED Neutral Buy Macquarie 15 TASMEA LIMITED Buy Buy Morgans 16 TASMEA LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett 17 WORLEY LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs 1 EIQ ECHOIQ LIMITED 1.583 1.400 13.07% 3 2 INA INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP 5.057 4.850 4.27% 3 3 29M 29METALS LIMITED 0.353 0.340 3.82% 3 4 NIC NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED 1.375 1.325 3.77% 3 5 RWC RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED 3.967 3.842 3.25% 6 6 A2M A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED 8.300 8.100 2.47% 6 7 LYC LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED 18.100 17.767 1.87% 6 8 QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED 10.930 10.730 1.86% 5 9 TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED 14.347 14.263 0.59% 6 10 GLF GEMLIFE COMMUNITIES GROUP 5.485 5.460 0.46% 6

Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs 1 JDO JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 1.703 2.117 -19.56% 6 2 IEL IDP EDUCATION LIMITED 3.630 4.180 -13.16% 5 3 JIN JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED 10.420 11.640 -10.48% 5 4 BBN BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED 2.720 2.958 -8.05% 5 5 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 0.994 1.050 -5.33% 7 6 WTC WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED 71.786 75.786 -5.28% 7 7 WOR WORLEY LIMITED 13.300 13.940 -4.59% 5 8 FLT FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED 14.447 15.123 -4.47% 6 9 AIS AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED 0.743 0.775 -4.13% 4 10 TAH TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED 1.064 1.094 -2.74% 5

Earnings Forecast

Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs 1 VEA VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED 33.300 32.300 3.10% 4 2 RPL REGAL PARTNERS LIMITED 30.750 30.000 2.50% 3 3 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 30.103 29.609 1.67% 6 4 NIC NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED 8.145 8.099 0.57% 3 5 AX1 ACCENT GROUP LIMITED 6.200 6.175 0.40% 5 6 SGH SGH LIMITED 233.425 232.550 0.38% 4 7 BHP BHP GROUP LIMITED 372.771 371.571 0.32% 6 8 IEL IDP EDUCATION LIMITED 23.400 23.325 0.32% 5 9 SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED 123.980 123.583 0.32% 7 10 SGP STOCKLAND 36.625 36.525 0.27% 5

Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs 1 STX STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED -31.500 -0.845 -3627.81% 3 2 EIQ ECHOIQ LIMITED -1.330 -1.195 -11.30% 3 3 JIN JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED 72.025 77.400 -6.94% 5 4 JDO JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED 10.525 11.260 -6.53% 6 5 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 14.900 15.871 -6.12% 7 6 KAR KAROON ENERGY LIMITED 21.666 22.935 -5.53% 5 7 WDS WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED 268.415 278.230 -3.53% 6 8 FLT FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED 89.520 92.580 -3.31% 6 9 ILU ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED -18.775 -18.175 -3.30% 4 10 BBN BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED 12.700 13.060 -2.76% 5

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