VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED (VEA)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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VEA

VEA - VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Crude Oil
Year End: December
GICS Industry Group : Energy
Debt/EBITDA: 7.44
Index: ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Viva Energy is an Australian oil refiner and supplier of fuel and related products through petrol stations under the Shell and Viva Energy brands. It owns and operates the Geelong Refinery in Victoria. It was listed in 2018 following restructure of Viva Energy Holdings.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$1.78

27 Mar
2025

0.020

OPEN

$1.77

1.14%

HIGH

$1.80

4,100,325

LOW

$1.77

TARGET
$3.09 73.6% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AEL . ALD . BHP . BPT . BRU . CRD . CVN . FAR . HE8 . HZN . KAR . MAY .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
VEA: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx - 4.8 13.4 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 10.6 7.5 xxx
EPS Growth xxx N/A N/A xxx
DPS Growth xxx - 32.2% - 29.0% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 13.1 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 4.3% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx N/A 56.0% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 4.40%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 6.02

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 09/09 - ex-div 6.7c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-4.8
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.6
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx30,142.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx119.3
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx598.4 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-0.25 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-3.91 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-1.28 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-0.70 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-3.91 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.74 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-205.8 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx273 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,259 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx5,533 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,116 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx193 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2.20

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx588.1 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.95 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx28,607 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,365 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx24 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.8

No. Of Recommendations

4
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

26/02/2025

1

Buy

$3.10

74.16%

UBS highlights Viva Energy’s 2024 underlying NPAT was in line, but the final dividend was slightly weaker, implying a 66% payout of group net profit.

The broker notes the key focus was the Convenience & Mobility (C&M) segment, where 1H25 EBITDA guidance missed consensus by -26%, though 2H 2025 was in line with estimates.

The broker points OTR conversions showed early success, with three of four initial sites performing well. Higher conversion costs and a longer rollout timeline were confirmed, though UBS maintains a positive outlook for long-term EBITDA growth.

UBS cuts 2025 EPS by -35%, reducing C&M EBITDA by -$80m for 1H. 2026 EPS forecast falls by -3, reflecting modestly weaker C&M and Commercial & Industrial (C&I) performance and higher interest costs.

The price target is lowered to $3.10 from $3.20. Buy rating retained.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxx-xxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

04/03/2025

1

Buy

$3.05

71.35%

Goldman Sachs notes Viva Energy's 2024 earnings (EBITDA) was in line, but underlying net profit after tax was below estimates by -7%  due to higher depreciation and finance costs.

The implied 2025 guidance for C&M and C&I segments is -9% below prior estimates.

Retail fuel margins fell -3c/L year-on-year in early 2025, impacting earnings by -$18m. The analysts note the company faces continued headwinds from declining tobacco sales and operating costs in Convenience.

Management expects $105m in 2H25 earnings improvements from cost synergies, Liberty Convenience, and new cost reductions, with further gains into FY26-27.

The broker lowers 2025/2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10%/-3% and reduces the target price by -6% to $3.05. Buy.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 11.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 19.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

VEA STOCK CHART

FNArena News on VEA

1
Rudi’s View: February’s Reality Check

Mar 05 2025 - Rudi's View
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 04, 2025

Mar 04 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
FNArena Corporate Results Monitor – 27-02-2025

Feb 27 2025 - Australia
4
Rudi’s View: Best Ideas & Conviction Calls

Feb 20 2025 - Rudi's View
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Rudi’s View: AGL Energy, Bega Cheese, BRG, Harvey Norman, Imdex & Superloop

Feb 06 2025 - Rudi's View

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