Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 23, 2024

This story features AFT PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AFP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AFP   ASX   COF   CQR   CWY (2)   DRR   DTL   HDN   IAG   ING (2)   MAH   QBE   QIP   RFG   RHC   SPZ   SYA (2)   WES   WHC   XRF  

AFP    AFT PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.19

Jarden rates ((AFP)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

AFT Pharmaceuticals served up an earnings downgrade according to Jarden, only 3-months after the November 1H24 earnings report.

A combination of product launch delays, a change in strategy and lower A&NZ sales were the only details offered to the market for the -22% downgrade in the FY24 EBIT guidance midpoint to $18m from $22m, notes Jarden.

The broker's EBIT forecasts are lowered by -20% to -27% for FY24 to FY26, respectively.

The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Neutral and the target price drops to NZ$2.80 from NZ$3.55.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Current Price is $3.19. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.02 cents and EPS of 13.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.24.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.39 cents and EPS of 13.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.26.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $64.25

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

ASX reported lower than expected 1H24 profit after tax, notes Jarden and by as much as -6% compared to consensus, versus -3% against its own estimate.

High costs continue to undermine the improved futures volumes with an expectation turnover for equities and IPO flows have reached a low in the cycle.

Looking ahead, management continues to target lower cost growth in the 2H24, including a reduction in the headcount.

Jarden adjusts EPS estimate by -1.7% for FY24 and 2.3% for FY25.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target has lifted to $62 from $61.05.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $64.25 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $62.68, suggesting downside of -2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 210.60 cents and EPS of 247.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.8, implying annual growth of 50.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 209.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 270.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.7, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.17

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden continues to harbour concerns over lease expiries for Centuria Office REIT post the 1H24 results, as well as cash incentives for tennants, which override the current -37% discount to NAV and the 9.7% dividend yield on offer.

Although a lot of bad news is discounted in the price, the broker is looking for more "clarity" and certainty on future earnings. 

Underweight rating unchanged and the target price is lowered to $1.30 from $1.35.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.135
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.38, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.40 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.66

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden is positive on the "non-discretionary and petrol station" asset exposure for Charter Hall Retail REIT with an upbeat take on the 1H24 results.

The broker commends management's asset recycling strategy which is underpinning growth in revenue, and highlights the FY24 net operating income forecast may be on the low side.

Equally, Jarden assesses the REIT's FFO and DPS are probably at the bottom of the cycle.

An Overweight rating is maintained and the target declines to $4.00 from $4.10.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.34
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.40 cents and EPS of 27.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 324.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.68

Goldman Sachs rates ((CWY)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs leaves forecasts largely unchanged for Cleanaway Waste Management following 1H results and unchanged FY24 guidance.

The neutral rating is kept on headwinds from landfill competition in Melbourne, a growing capex requirement, and uncertain energy-from-waste economics. Circular economy tailwinds are expected to benefit in the long-term.

The broker's $2.70 target is unchanged.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.02
If CWY meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 716.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Despite the 1H24 earnings miss by Cleanaway Waste Management, Jarden looks beyond these results with a more optimistic take on improving "momentum" for Solid Waste Services and Liquid Waste and Health Services.

The broker adjusts earnings to the higher end of management's EBIT target for FY24 to $354m, but post an increase in net interest estimates, the EPS forecast is lowered by -2.5% for FY24.

Due to the share price weakness and an increase in the valuation for peers,  the rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $2.85 from $2.60.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.17
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of 716.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.95

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Neutral (3) –

Following in-line 1H earnings (EBITDA) and profit for Deterra Royalties, Goldman Sachs makes minimal changes to its forecasts and retains a $5.00 target. The Neutral rating is also maintained.

Iron ore production from BHP Group's ((BHP)) Mining Area C (MAC) iron ore complex decreased by circa -3% half-on-half to 61mt (wet). The analysts predicts 125mt for FY24.

The broker forecasts higher iron ore pricing in FY24 will drive 5% earnings growth for Deterra. A 14.89cps interim dividend was declared.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.95 Difference: $0.05
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $7.65

Jarden rates ((DTL)) as Buy (1) –

Data#3 delivered a lower quality result for 1H24 says Jarden.

However, the broker remains upbeat about the prospects for the company acknowledging that the maturation of the time managed services contract is taking longer than forecast.

The broker notes the results were pre announced but higher interest boosted the after tax profit to 25% on a year earlier with EBIT up only 5% over the same period.

Jarden adjusts forecasts by -6% and -9% for FY24 and FY25, respectively and is expecting a stronger 2H24 result.

A Buy rating is retained and the target price is lifted to $9.15 from $9.02.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $1.5
If DTL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting upside of 5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 16.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.70 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.24

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden continues to like HomeCo Daily Needs REIT post the 1H24 results, and is looking for a compound average EBIT growth of 5.8% for FY24 through to FY27.

The analyst assesses the forecasts could be too conservative if management can manage further asset recycling.

Some minor adjustments to FFO forecasts are made, by 0.1% for FY24, and 0.8% for FY25, and the analyst highlights the solid balance sheet in light of higher interest costs.

An Overweight rating is retained, and the target lifted to $1.40 from $1.35.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.16
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 76.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.70 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.89

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

1H24 net profit reported by Insurance Australia Group was -5% lower than Jarden's forecasts and consensus.

The broker highlights a lack of affordability is beginning to impact on personal line volumes, however, higher premiums should be retained into the 2H24.

Some minor changes are made to the analyst's EPS estimates, -2.8% for FY24 and 2% for FY25.

Overweight rating unchanged and the target lifted to $6.40 from $6.15.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.89 Difference: $0.51
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of -5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 42.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of 20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ING    INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((ING)) as Sell (5) –

While Inghams Group's 1H earnings (EBITDA) exceeded consensus and Goldman Sachs forecasts by 5% and 6%, respectively, management anticipates a slightly more challenging 2H operating environment.

The company is witnessing a softening in the quick service restaurant (QSR) channel as consumers tighten the purse strings, and is not expecting material price increases will continue in the 2H, explains the analyst.

Cost inflation also continues, according to management, including for wages and distribution.

The target price falls by -3% to $3.15 and the Sell rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 17.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ING)) as Overweight (2) –

Inghams Group met Jarden's forecasts for the 1H24 results, with the company beating EBITDA guidance and the market's expectations.

Management offered little by way of guidance for FY24, only to note that quick service restaurant demand is lower, down by some -3.1% on a year ago.

The broker considers the stock's valuation as not challenging and the outlook remains "sound". 

Some marginal adjustments are made to FY24-FY26 EBITDA forecasts, notes the analyst, up by 3-6%, respectively, with higher interest rates and tax rate mudding the EPS forecasts.

An Overweight rating is retained and the target raised to $3.95 from $3.90.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.42
If ING meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 17.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.90 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.4, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.80 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.20

Petra Capital rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Macmahon's December-half result appears to have broadly met Petra Capital's forecasts, a 10% rise in the gross profit margin offsetting lower sales and higher operating expenditure.

Management upgraded FY24 guidance for earnings (EBITA), free cash flow and return on average capital employed (the latter rose to 15.5% in the first half, exceeding the company's 15.0% target). The new ROACE target is 20%.

The broker says management cited a larger order book and observes like-for-like revenue rose 15% after extracting cost recovery revenues.

The company registered a free cash outflow of -$5m, compared with -$20m in the previous corresponding period.

EPS forecasts fall -2% across FY24 to FY26. DPS estimates fall -50%, Petra Capital advising management will use its surplus to pay down debt.

Buy rating reiterated. Target price eases to 30c from 31c.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.105
If MAH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.13.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.15.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $16.71

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden highlights a miss for QBE Insurance on the FY23 results, attributed to one-off underwriting items.

The combined ratio (COR) met guidance from a year ago, although the FY24 93.5% COR is considered by the broker as less than impressive, which is viewed as setting a low bar for expectations, with scope to beat.

FY24 earnings estimates for Jarden remain unchanged.

The Buy rating is retained and the target decreases to $19.10 from $19.25.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $19.10 Current Price is $16.71 Difference: $2.39
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 133.56 cents and EPS of 178.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 136.59 cents and EPS of 184.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.3, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QIP    QANTM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $1.25

Petra Capital rates ((QIP)) as Buy (1) –

Qantm Intellectual Property's pre-guided December-half result appears to have pleased Petra Capital, revenue and earnings all rising strongly on the previous corresponding period, thanks to "respectable" performances across divisions.

The broker observes strong operating cash generation and low capital expenditure drove an increase in the company's dividend to 4.9c from 2.8c the previous year (an 80% payout ratio). The broker forecasts an FY24 dividend yield of 6.3% and FY25 yield of 7.2%.

Net debt fell -33.4% year on year. Buy rating retained. Target price is $1.76 (it was $1.57 in December). 

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.51
If QIP meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.77.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.33.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RFG    RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.07

Petra Capital rates ((RFG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital sees momentum building in Retail Food, with outlet growth accelerating towards the end of the first half, increasing by 44 outlets to a total 743 during the half, and with the company continuing to guide to 11-26% underlying earnings growth over the full year.

The broker sees Retail Food's earnings profile as becoming more predictable. First half growth included the acquisition of nine Beefy's Pies stores, and Petra Capital expects the second half, and FY25, will benefit from full contributions from this acquisiiton and newly opened outlets.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 11 cents from 9.5 cents.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.035
If RFG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.30 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $50.78

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden previews the upcoming February 29 1H24 results for Ramsay Health Care and highlights concerns over ongoing cost and inflationary pressures, and uncertainty over volumes.

The broker notes another unexpected round of negotiations between Medibank Private ((MPL)) and the company in December 2023, on the back of persistent inflation.

After adjusting for these potential headwinds, the analyst adjusts EPS forecasts -3.7% for the 1H24 and -1% for FY24 and -3.7% for FY25.

A Neutral rating is maintained and the target lifted to $61.26 from $58.98.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $61.26 Current Price is $50.78 Difference: $10.48
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.14, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 122.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.8, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 211.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.8, implying annual growth of 46.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 121.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.42

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Smart Parking's 1H earnings (EBITDA) were a 10% beat against market expectations after revenue accelerated and margins expanded to record levels, explains Canaccord Genuity.

Revenue and gross profit increased by 20% and 23%, respectively, compared to the previous corresponding period

The broker's target increases to 50c from 45c after FY24-26 earnings forecasts rise by 3%, 3% and 2%, respectively, on the improving margin profile. Buy.

Smart Parking commenced operations in Denmark in February this year.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.08
If SPZ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.56.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYA)) as Hold (3) –

Sayona Mining's definitive feasibility study has outlined a longer mine life with higher grades and higher recoveries, although Canaccord Genuity had assumed a much larger processing run rate.

Capital expenditure of -US$722m is also much higher than the broker had modelled. The study assumes first production in the first half of 2024 although the company is reviewing the timeline to take into account current market conditions.

The broker believes there is strong potential for further resource and reserve increases, as well as potential for mine plan optimisations. Hold rating and 6c target.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.014
If SYA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 460.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 230.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((SYA)) as Buy (1) –

Sayona Mining has released a positive definitive feasibility study for its Moblan project, outlining a cost of -US$837m to build a 300,000 tonne per annum mine with an all-in sustaining cost of US$561 per tonne of spodumeme.

Petra Capital described the project as low cost, with the study suggesting operating expenditure of US$417 per tonne and with all-in sustaining costs in the second quartile. 

The broker also pointed out Moblan is the most favourably located lithium project in the region, and expects the site will be one of the few that gets built to support North American electric vehicle demand.

The broker expects Sayona Mining will now pursue funding and partnership agreements. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 14 cents from 15 cents.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.094
If SYA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 204% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $63.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Buy (1) –

Wesfarmers' retail businesses, and in particular Kmart, beat forecasts by Goldman Sachs for the 1H. Results for WesCEF were in line with the analysts' forecast, while Health/One Digital remains in an investment phase.

The broker highlights a standout operating cash flow (OCF) performance for the half, with free cash flow (FCF) of  $1.4bn compared to $0.8bn in the previous corresponding period. 

The analysts feel margins at Kmart are sustainable after management's multi-year transformation program. Year-on-year, Kmart delivered 173bps of earnings (EBIT) margin improvement in the half.

The Anko brand (for Kmart) is circa 85% of Kmart sales, and around 35-40% of Target's sales, highlights Goldman.

The target rises to $66 from $62.90. Buy.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $63.65 Difference: $2.35
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 197.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.3, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 192.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 231.00 cents and EPS of 263.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.2, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 211.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $7.01

Goldman Sachs rates ((WHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Whitehaven Coal's 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) and profit missed forecasts by Goldman Sachs due to higher than expected marketing costs and D&A expenses, and lower revenue than forecast at Narrabri. Stronger coal trading earnings provided a partial offset.

Post-result discussion with management revealed to the broker the company continues to explore the potential sell down of around -20% of the newly-acquired Blackwater mine to global steel producers.

Target falls to $6.00 from $6.20. Neutral retained.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.2, implying annual growth of -71.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.1, implying annual growth of 49.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRF    XRF SCIENTIFIC LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((XRF)) as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) –

XRF Scientific impressed Canaccord Genuity with its first half results, considering the market had slowed throughout 2023. Revenue and EBITDA were slightly ahead of expectations.

On a FY25 PE of 15.9x, the broker believes the company has started the second half on a strong run rate with the potential for upside.

Rating is upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $1.30 from $1.22. The broker envisages valuation upside although the lumpy revenue and earnings means a heightened level of risk.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.2
If XRF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.10 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.07.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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