Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 28, 2024

This story features AMPOL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALD

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALD   BEN   BSL   EHL   EVS   HUB   MAD   MAH   MMS   NDO (3)   NWL   OML   ORA   STX   THL   WBC   WDS  

ALD    AMPOL LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $38.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALD)) as Buy (1) –

Ampol's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) missed Goldman Sachs' forecast by -1%, but profit was a 2% beat. Convenience Retail shop profit remained relatively stable as fuel margins continued a strong performance over the 2H, explains the broker.

The Convenience Retail fuel and shop margin improved by 3%, largely driven by fuel margins, explain the analysts, which remained strong over the 2H as shop profit remained resilient to declining tobacco sales.

The Lytton Refinery achieved a US$13.33/bbl gross margin in January, slightly ahead of the broker's US$12.7/bbl estimate for Q1.

A total dividend of 180cps was declared, including a 60cps special dividend. The broker's target eases to $36.80 from $37.10. Buy.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $36.80 Current Price is $38.80 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If ALD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $36.85, suggesting downside of -5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 170.00 cents and EPS of 243.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 301.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.5, implying annual growth of -1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 228.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $9.49

Goldman Sachs rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's 1H cash earnings beat forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus by 5% and 2%, respectively. Bad and doubtful debts were significantly lower-than-anticipated.

The 2H net interest margin (NIM) fell by -15bps half-on-half to 1.83% compared to the consensus estimate for 1.88%.

There was a -7bps impact on the NIM due to the build-up of higher liquids as management sought to pre-fund its term funding facility (TFF) expiration, explains the broker.

Management reiterated a target payout ratio of 60-80%. An interim dividend of 30cps was declared.

The broker's target rises to $9.74 from $9.57. The Neutral rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $9.74 Current Price is $9.49 Difference: $0.25
If BEN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting downside of -3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.0, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.8, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $22.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((BSL)) as Buy (1) –

BlueScope Steel's 1H earnings (EBIT) of $718m were in line with Goldman Sachs' forecast but well in advance of the $664m estimated by consensus, and management's guidance for between $620-670m.

Australian Steel (ASP) and Coated Products Asia segments performed better than the analysts expected. The North Star US steel mill missed on lower pricing, and Coil Coatings also missed on lower volumes, explains the broker.

Management has increased the annual on-market share buyback to $400m and is reviewing the potential to increase the 50cps base annual dividend, which was set in August 2021.

Second half earnings guidance implies to Goldman Sachs an around -10% half-on-half decline to between $620-690m.

The target price falls by -3% to $25.50. Buy.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $22.47 Difference: $3.03
If BSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.86, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 212.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.7, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 243.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.64

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1) –

Emeco Holdings posted a first half result that was in line with expectations. Canaccord Genuity now expects EBITDA growth in FY24 of 12% while expenditure on growth will decline in FY25.

Specific guidance was not provided yet management noted it is comfortable with the consensus view for EBITDA of $280m.

The broker expects rental earnings will improve in the second half given the production outlook for bulks and gold. Buy rating unchanged. Target edges up to $0.99 from $0.97.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.99 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.35
If EHL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.78.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVS    ENVIROSUITE LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.06

Moelis rates ((EVS)) as Buy (1) –

EnviroSuite has reaffirmed its target for positive adjusted EBITDA, less capitalised development costs, for FY24 after first half annual recurring revenue grew 5.6%, adjusted EBITDA was $100,000 and gross profit was up 10.1%.

Moelis observes, within the aviation segment, underlying momentum in new deals was evident with the addition of five new airports. Water remains in the early phases of commercialisation but net annual recurring revenue grew by 55%.

The broker notes the key catalyst is breaking even on free cash flow, which should be achieved in the second half of FY25. Buy rating and $0.10 target.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.041
If EVS meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.83.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $38.68

Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

First  half results from Hub24 were largely in line with estimates. Moelis makes no changes to forecasts for funds under administration but marginally lowers growth assumptions for technology solutions and partly offsets this with better platform segment performance.

This results in slight changes to net profit estimates for FY24-26, with a better performance from an EPS perspective given more shares are likely to be bought back than previously assumed.

The broker continues to believe the stock is a high-quality business with significant growth potential but as the share price has performed strongly retains a Hold rating with a target of $41.99.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $41.99 Current Price is $38.68 Difference: $3.31
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.54, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.50 cents and EPS of 86.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.7, implying annual growth of 75.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 114.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $6.59

Moelis rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Management at Mader Group largely pre-reported 1H results via the recent 2Q update, explains Moelis.

The 13% group earnings margin was a 90bps increase on the previous corresponding period, with Australian and North American margins of 12.1% and 20.6%, respectively.

A 140bps margin increase in North America was due to better margins in Canada, explain the analysts, with earnings from that country growing in significance.

Management reaffirmed FY24 guidance, and a 3.8cps fully franked interim dividend was declared.

Moelis keeps a Buy rating and $7.41 target.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $7.41 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $0.82
If MAD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.68.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.89.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.19

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Macmahon Holdings posted its strongest result ever and Canaccord Genuity is impressed with the growth, now forecasting FY24 EBIT that is slightly ahead of guidance. Surface revenue stood out, being $80m ahead of the broker's forecast.

Revenue guidance has increased to $1.8-1.9bn, and the broker notes Greenbushes remains in ramp up while the recent Pit N Portal acquisition should add to the first half run rate.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $0.28 from $0.25.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.09
If MAH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.90 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMS    MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $21.78

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MMS)) as Buy (1) –

McMillan Shakespeare has exceeded market expectations with its first half result, even with the market being aware of favourable conditions for novated leasing. 

Canaccord Genuity had anticipated a 'positive impact from higher EV penetration', but was surprised at the speed of profit growth over the half. The only downside to this, points out the broker, is the difficulty it creates in determining what metrics appear sustainable.

Despite this, the broker feels momentum looks strong and expects margins have not yet peaked.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $21.80 from $19.60.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $21.80 Current Price is $21.78 Difference: $0.02
If MMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.76, suggesting downside of -0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.1, implying annual growth of 228.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.9, implying annual growth of -4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NDO    NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.98

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NDO)) as Buy (1) –

Nido Education's maiden results release as a listed company have slightly exceeded prospectus guidance at the earnings line, but Canaccord Genuity notes all focus is on the year ahead. Pre-AASB earnings came in at $0.3m, and average occupancy 75.4%.

With 24 of the company's 52 centres acquired alongside its public listing in October, Canaccord Genuity points out these result are not the most meaningful, given limited contribution.

The company provided no guidance for the coming year, but confirmed it is progressing in line with prospectus target of earnings of $28m. Canaccord Genuity sits 2% higher.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.315
If NDO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((NDO)) as Buy (1) –

Compared to prospectus estimates, FY23 operating revenue and portfolio occupancy numbers were beats, while adjusted earnings (EBITDA) were in line. Taking these outcomes into consideration,  Moelis suggests 2024 prospectus estimates are on track.

Early-2024 trading is positive, notes the broker, with spot occupancy around 73% in February. Following a January fee increase, the current average daily fee per place is $153/day, up from the average in FY23 of $147/day, highlights Moelis.

As net debt is only $2.8m, the broker also sees sufficient debt headroom for management to undertake the acquisition growth strategy.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price eases to $1.36 from $1.40 on minor downgrades to the analyst's profit estimates across 2024-26.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.375
If NDO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.32.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NDO)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons leaves forecasts for Nido Education largely unchanged following FY23 results in line with prospectus forecasts.

FY23 revenue of $95.6m was 1% higher than the analyst had forecast with a 2.1% beat for core childcare revenue of $86.2m.

Management reiterated its confidence in achieving average FY24 occupancy of 82%, as per the prospectus forecast.

The target increases to $1.45 from $1.41 on the broker's slightly lower net debt assumption and a valuation roll-forward. Overweight.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.465
If NDO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.10 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.56.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $19.01

Wilsons rates ((NWL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons upgrades EPS forecasts by around 5% for Netwealth Group following 1H results beats against forecasts by the broker and consensus of 9% and 2%, respectively.

Cost control also improved for non-staff costs, highlight the analysts, growing by only 3% year-on-year, which demonstrates the meaningful operating leverage within the company.

Platform Revenue was 4% ahead of Wilsons forecast driven by a positive surprise for Ancillary and Transactional fees.

The Overweight rating is unchanged and the target rises to $20.50 from $18.40.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.01 Difference: $1.49
If NWL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.02, suggesting downside of -5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.70 cents and EPS of 35.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of 24.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.70 cents and EPS of 47.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of 25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((OML)) as Neutral (3) –

Following FY23 results for oOh!media, Goldman Sachs raises its FY24-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 3% and 4%, respectively. Gross margins were stronger-than-expected, partially offset by weaker revenue.

The broker believes margins will be either flat or up from here, despite some expected compression from a contract renewal by Auckland council.

Management is aiming for above-industry revenue growth through the cycle as benefits flow from an increased focus on retail media, explains the broker. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.62 from $1.59.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: minus $0.225 (current price is over target).
If OML meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 32.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORA)) as Buy (1) –

Orora's 1H earnings (EBIT) were in line with forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus, despite lower-than-expected revenues, which imply strong margin outcomes. Profit missed the broker's estimate on higher interest and tax expenses than anticipated.

North American earnings beat the broker's forecast by 2%, with a strong margin of around 5%, while Australian earnings missed the consensus estimate by -1%, with volume growth for Cans offsetting softness for Glass.

Management reiterated guidance for FY24 earnings (excluding the Saverglass contribution) to exceed FY23's earnings. Guidance was also confirmed for ongoing margin accretion due to account profitability and a focus on costs.

The Buy rating and and $3.50 target are maintained.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.85
If ORA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -13.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.21

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons lowers its resource estimates for Strike Energy's South Erregulla and flow rate expectations by around -50% after flow test issues at SE-2, following SE-3 flow test issues in the prior week. 

Water has been prohibiting commercial gas flow from both these wells due to causes unknown at this juncture, explains the broker.

The analyst not only downgrades its South Erregulla asset resource and flow rate expectations, but also increases the risk realating to potential upside to the asset and neighbouring prospects.

The Overweight rating is retained for Strike Energy though the target is slashed to 34c from 53c.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.13
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.39, suggesting upside of 87.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 183.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

THL    TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $3.28

Wilsons rates ((THL)) as Overweight (1) –

While 1H results for Tourism Holdings Rentals were weaker than Wilsons expected, partly due to a challenging environment for global sales, the company reiterated its $100m FY26 profit target.

Additionally, management stated this target allows for a full normalisation in sales margins to pre-covid levels and a level of normalisation for rental yields. Further, the company noted it is on track to deliver targeted cash synergies of $27-31m.

Management lowered FY24 profit guidance to “around $75m” compared to previous expectations for an increase from the $77.1m achieved in FY23.

The broker decreases its target to $4.05 from $5.06 on lower earnings forecasts and after applying a higher weighting to its price earnings valuation model, which is used alongside the discounted cash flow methodology. The Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.28 Difference: $0.77
If THL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.83 cents and EPS of 32.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.14.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.96 cents and EPS of 35.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $26.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Following Westpac's 1Q trading update, Goldman Sachs raises its FY24-26 EPS forecasts by 2.7%, 3.2% and 3.2%, respectively, due to a better net interest margin (NIM) and lower expenses. Lower volumes and a higher assumed BDD charge provide a partial offset.

After also reviewing the recent 1H results for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)), the broker believes signs are emerging of an easing for industry-wide NIM pressures.

Goldman's target rises to $23.46 from $22.85. Neutral.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $23.46 Current Price is $26.25 Difference: minus $2.79 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.42, suggesting downside of -10.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 186.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.7, implying annual growth of -8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 144.00 cents and EPS of 185.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.3, implying annual growth of 0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $30.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs resumes research coverage for Woodside Energy, after failed merger talks with Santos ((STO)), with a Neutral rating and $32.40 target.

The broker expects production will remain relatively flat over 2024-2026 as Mad Dog 2 and the Sangomar oil ramp-up offset the existing decline at the North West Shelf and Bass Strait

The analyst points out this change in project mix leaves earnings largely exposed to softening LNG prices. 

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $32.40 Current Price is $30.28 Difference: $2.12
If WDS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.50, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 115.38 cents and EPS of 144.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.4, implying annual growth of -26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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