Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 15, 2024

This story features ASX LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ASX   BPT   BRE   CMM   COE   CVN   DUG (2)   GQG   GYG   KAR   MEI (2)   NWL   ORG   PMT   QAN (2)   RED   STO   TLS   WDS  

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $64.41

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes ASX experienced an 18% increase in daily average futures volume growth in June 2024, leading to a 13% growth in 2H24.

Equity market activity showed mixed results with a -1% decline in average daily equity turnover, capital raisings surged by 90%, assisted by the Guzman y Gomez ((GFG)) IPO.

The overall revenue outlook is gradually improving, with minor EPS revisions of 0.1% for FY24 and 0.3% for FY25, but total cost growth is expected to outpace revenue growth, Jarden highlights.

Neutral rating and $61.25 target price.

This report was published on July 4, 2024.

Target price is $61.25 Current Price is $64.41 Difference: minus $3.16 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 211.20 cents and EPS of 248.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.6, implying annual growth of 50.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 209.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 220.20 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.1, implying annual growth of 1.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 212.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.53

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden expects a 8.5% increase in production volumes to 4.9mboe in the June quarter from a 31% increase in Otway Basin gas production.

Forecasts are adjusted slightly.

No change to Overweight rating and target of $1.55.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.015
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of -13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 40.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $2.95

Petra Capital rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital takes a deep dive into rare earths and states the market is close to the bottom of the cycle.

The broker believes for growth investors Brazilian Rare Earths offers the highest grade rare earth project globally.

Buy rating unchanged with a $4.55 target price.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $2.95 Difference: $1.6
If BRE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.79.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.57.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.35

Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Overweight (2) –

Capricorn Metals reported FY24 production of 113.0koz, which is in line with revised guidance, according to Jarden.

It generated $24.6m in free cash flow before a $69.6m hedge closure, leading to a June 30 cash balance of $125m, which is viewed as a strong position by the analyst.

FY25 production guidance was 110-120koz, which is slightly below consensus estimates and Jarden notes the Mt Gibson Gold Project environmental submission is progressing, with federal and state approvals anticipated.

The Overweight rating is retained, and the target price slips to $5.31 from $5.33.

This report was published on July 4, 2024.

Target price is $5.31 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.78, suggesting upside of 8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 1705.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of 82.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COE    COOPER ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.23

Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden forecasts a 1.6% increase in the June quarter production against the March quarter for Cooper Energy.

A mark-to-market adjustment in forecasts results in FY25 EPS estimates lifting 1%.

Overweight rating and 24c target unchanged.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.015
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 22.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 112.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 112.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.20

Jarden rates ((CVN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden expects Carnarvon Energy will finish the financial year with $171m in net cash, with operating cash flow of $0.1m in the June quarter.

A buy rating and 24c target.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.045
If CVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Dug Technology’s recent delivery of 1,500 AMD EPYC Genoa machines, which will eliminate third-party compute costs.

The machines’ financing terms are favourable, with monthly repayments over a 3-year term and Dug Technology’s compute capacity has significantly increased, Canaccord Genuity highlights.

Management anticipates strong demand for its services, projecting mid- to high-teens compound revenue growth in the future.

The broker adjusts net profit forecasts by -16.4% for FY25 on a change in depreciation and interest forecasts to reflect the higher financing amount over a shorter repayment duration.

Buy rating and $3.20 target unchanged.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.52
If DUG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 268.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 89.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((DUG)) as Overweight (1) –

DUG Technology announced the delivery of 1,500 AMD EPYC Genoa machines, earlier than initially expected, states Wilsons.

This quick deployment could provide 10% upside to the broker’s FY25 EBITDA estimates, raising the forecast to $26.9m and results in consensus estimate of $25.4m being potentially achieved.

Wilsons highlights the company will no longer incur third-party compute costs and the released favourable terms for the lease facility funding of these machines is ahead of the analyst’s previous expectations.

Overweight rating and $3.58 target price are under review.

This report was published on July 11, 2024.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.9
If DUG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs observed funds under management for GQG Partners reached US$155.6bn at the end of June 2024, up from US$120.6bn in December 2023.

The growth was driven by market contributions of US$23.9bn and net inflows of US$11.1bn with the broker highlighting strong investment performance, an increase in management fee margins, and solid net inflows, particularly in the wholesale and sub-advisory channels.

The earnings for FY25 are upgraded by 5% according to Goldman Sachs and the broker is awaiting any changes in the CIO and CEO’s shareholding stakes at around 70.1% and 4.2%, respectively.

Buy rating unchanged with the target price lifted to $3 from $2.72.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.1
If GQG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.82 cents and EPS of 21.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.87 cents and EPS of 25.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GYG    GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED

Overnight Price: $26.97

Wilsons rates ((GYG)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiate coverage of Guzman y Gomez with an Overweight rating and a $31.98 target price.

The broker expects the company will benefit from strong unit economics, with median annual sales for drive-thru and strip stores at $6.1m and $4.5m respectively, and restaurant margins at 22% and 20%.

To date Guzman y Gomez has developed what Wilsons views as a robust store network in Australia, with plans to expand to 1,000 restaurants from 185, over the long term.

With $277m in net cash, the company can support its aggressive expansion strategy, the broker suggests, including potential growth in the US market.

Overweight. $31.98 target price.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $31.98 Current Price is $26.97 Difference: $5.01
If GYG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 152.37.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 128.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.92

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden’s June production forecasts are broadly unchanged and expected at 1.3mboe to 1.4mboes of oil from Brazil and 0.8mboe from Who Dat.

The broker anticipates the market will focus on the company’s capital management plans, with Jarden expecting a 25% free cash flow payout, either as a dividend or buyback.

The EPS forecast tweaks by 0.1% for FY24 due to mark-to-market on oil and Henry Hub June prices.

Buy rating and a $2.25 target price.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.33
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 36.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of -10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MEI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to the recent scoping study for Caldeira which highlights a 5mtpa open pit mine and processing development with a potential 20-year mine life, needing -US$403m in capex, and with a low average cash costs of US$7.00/kg for Meteoric Resources.

Higher capex is offset by increased NdPr production and reduced cash costs, making the project attractive for funding, the broker believes.

The company aims to complete a pre-feasability study by late 2024 with a final investment decision expected in late 2026, and first production in 2H2027.

The Speculative Buy rating and 45c target are unchanged.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.305
If MEI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 210% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 200.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((MEI)) as Buy (1) –

Meteoric Resources released its maiden scoping study for its Caldeira ionic rare earth project in Brazil, revealing a post-tax net present value of US$699m and positioning it in the lowest quartile for operating costs due to exceptional grades and high recoveries.

Petra Capital highlights significant expansion opportunities, with only two of six resource areas evaluated, suggesting a larger scale and longer life asset.

The broker notes the preliminary feasibility study is due  by December 2024, and the final investment decision by end-2025 with first production in the second half of 2027.

Buy rating and the target price is 39c.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.245
If MEI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 169% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 200.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 145.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $21.80

Wilsons rates ((NWL)) as Overweight (1) –

Netwealth Group reported net inflows of $3.6bn, 10% above the Wilsons analyst’s expectation, driven by record gross inflows.

The company expects continued strong performance in FY25, bolstered by significant transitions and competitor migrations.

The broker observes a slower-than-expected recovery in pooled cash and ancillary revenues has not deterred Netwealth Group from an upbeat view on reaching the $100bn funds under administration target.

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and a revised price target of $23.52.

This report was published on July 12, 2024.

Target price is $23.52 Current Price is $21.80 Difference: $1.72
If NWL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.26, suggesting downside of -8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 35.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 28.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 47.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of 26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.64

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden retains an Overweight rating on Origin Energy with a target price of $11 from $10.40.

The broker expects a -5% decrease in LNG production volumes in the June quarter after a robust March quarter.

In energy markets, Jarden forecasts a 5% increase in retail electricity sales and flat business volumes against the previous corresponding period for the June quarter.

Earnings forecasts are revised for mark-to-market changes with FY24 EBITDA down -0.3% and lower coal costs in FY25 boosting EBITDA by 4.1% with an increased dividend forecast to 57.5cps.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.64 Difference: $0.36
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 70.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.9, implying annual growth of 23.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.50 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMT    PATRIOT BATTERY METALS INC

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.56

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PMT)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Patriot Battery Metals reported the final core assay results from its 2024 winter drill program at the CV13 spodumene extending the high-grade Vega Zone to approximately 380 metres.

Canaccord Genuity highlights Patriot found the highest grade to date and the summer-fall drill program has commenced, focusing on infill drilling at CV5 to upgrade resources for the Feasibility Study which is targeted for 2H2025.

An updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Corvette project, including a maiden MRE for CV13, is expected in August 2024.

Canaccord Genuity points out the company’s tier-1 quality asset and scale make it an attractive takeout target.

Speculative Buy rating and a $1.70 target retained.

This report was published on July 8, 2024.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $1.135
If PMT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 201% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 121.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs retains a positive view on Qantas Airways and belives the earnings have structurally improved, due to over -$1bn in cost reductions.

The broker also mentions the investment spend in customer experience is gaining traction, which should lead to operational improvements without the need for additional spending.

Qantas Airways’ market valuation remains below pre-covid levels, trading at a significant discount compared to regional and US peers, Goldman Sachs notes.

The analyst anticipates this valuation gap to narrow as the company delivers sustained earnings and capital returns of circa $1.6bn over the next three years.

Earnings forecasts remain unchanged. Buy rating and $8.05 target price.

This report was published on May 29, 2024.

Target price is $8.05 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $1.84
If QAN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.73, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of -8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden remains bullish on the outlook for the travel sector with lower airfares, industry rationalisation and boomer enthusiasm for travel remaining.

The broker prefers Flight Centre ((FLT)) and Webjet ((WEB)) in the sector with upside to earnings from higher margins and the above mentioned tailwinds.

Buy rating and target price of $7.30.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.21 Difference: $1.09
If QAN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.73, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of -8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.30 cents and EPS of 101.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.42

Petra Capital rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital observes the recent merger with Silver Lake Resources has progressed very well for Red 5.

The broker notes all assets have ended the year on a strong note, particularly at the flagship King of the Hills mine, which is expected to maintain over 200koz annual production for over a decade.

A Buy rating maintained. Target price lowered to 46c from 47c.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.035
If RED meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.42.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.81.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.94

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden expects June quarter production for Santos at 22.1mboe against consensus estimates of 21.9mboe.

The broker’s FY25 EPS estimate is upgraded by 7% for higher forecast LNG prices.

The target price is revised to $8.25 from $8.15. Overweight.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.94 Difference: $0.31
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.43 cents and EPS of 51.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.19 cents and EPS of 47.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.82

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs observes the announced price increases for Telstra Group’s mobile plans, ranging from $2 to $4 per month, which are above CPI across most plans except for the $50 Starter plan.

This change is expected to drive a blended ARPU increase of $2.50, contributing positively to Telstra’s revenue.

Goldman Sachs adjusts EPS projections by 1% and 3% for FY24 and FY25 with the dividend per share raised to 19.0c for FY25.

The price target is increased to $4.30 from $4.25. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on July 9, 2024.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.48
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 7.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $28.94

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden expects a 3% increase in the June quarter production for Woodside Energy to 46.4mboe due to a higher seasonal output from Bass Strait.

Jarden forecasts a 2H24 Brent Oil price of US$85bbl.

The Neutral rating is retained, while the target price is lowered to $29.15 from $29.23.

This report was published on July 5, 2024.

Target price is $29.15 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: $0.21
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.36, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 157.04 cents and EPS of 198.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 151.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 163.14 cents and EPS of 221.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.8, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 147.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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