Daily Market Reports | Nov 14 2024
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
ACF ALL (2) ARB ASK AVH CMM DMP EDV (2) EVS IFM IPH IPL JHX JIN LAU LIC LTM LTR (3) NHF (2) NWS PXA (2) REA SLH SPR TLC WDS
ACF ACROW LIMITED
Building Products & Services - Overnight Price: $1.10
Moelis rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) -
Moelis highlights secured hire contracts have increased by 57% year-on-year, reaching $33.8m, supported by high demand in the Screens and Jumpform divisions, particularly in projects like Ipswich and Toowoomba hospitals for Acrow.
The company's pipeline has grown to a record $198m as of October 2024, up 39% from the previous year, indicating robust demand.
Moelis makes slight EPS adjustments for FY2527 due to Industrial Access growth, partially offset by lower group margins.
The broker believes the Queensland civil and commercial projects are expected to underpin formwork growth.
Buy rating unchanged with target lifted to $1.41 from $1.38.
This report was published on November 12, 2024.
Target price is $1.41 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.31
If ACF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 16.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.24.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 31.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.40 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of 4.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
Gaming - Overnight Price: $66.62
Goldman Sachs rates ((ALL)) as Neutral (3) -
Aristocrat Leisure reported FY24 EBITDA, which was above Goldman Sachs' estimates by 1%. The broker viewed the result as "very strong" with a robust outlook, highlighting the strength of the gaming business.
The company increased North American gaming operations with 7,100 net adds compared to the broker's forecast of 6,050. Momentum is being maintained into FY25 with a positive launch of Phoenix Link in late October.
Gaming margins rose to 61.1% from 57.7% a year earlier, compared to 56.8% for 1H24.
Goldman Sachs lifts EPS estimates by 3% and 2% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, due to stronger gaming revenues and margins. The analyst appreciates the sale of Plarium, thereby removing some uncertainty, with M&A options expected to develop.
The target price lifts to $70 from $62. No change to the Neutral rating.
Leading up to the release, Aristocrat Leisure had announced the sale of its mobile gaming business, Plarium, to Modern Times Group for up to US$820m, depending on performance.
Goldman Sachs highlights the deal aligns with the company's strategy to focus on core areas like land-based gaming and iGaming.
The broker expects proceeds to enhance capital management and may support buybacks or acquisitions.
Aristocrat Leisure's ongoing review of Big Fish Games, with a goodwill impairment charge of around -US$110m, is anticipated by the analyst.
This report was published on November 13, 2024.
Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: $3.38
If ALL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.58, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 263.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.33.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 290.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.97.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 290.0, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Overweight (2) -
Jarden highlights Aristocrat Leisure's strategic sale of its Plarium business to Modern Times Group for US$820m, with US$620m guaranteed and an additional contingent consideration of up to US$200m.
The broker notes this transaction, expected to close by March 2025, will strengthen Aristocrat's balance sheet, enabling potential capital redeployment and a stronger focus on its casino games operations.
Management anticipates mid-to-high single-digit dilution in FY25 NPATA due to the sale, but believes this impact could be offset by strategic focus and reinvestment.
The broker maintains an Overweight rating and a target price of $59.00.
This report was published on November 13, 2024.
Target price is $59.00 Current Price is $66.62 Difference: minus $7.62 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $67.58, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 264.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.22.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 266.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 279.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.86.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 290.0, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARB ARB CORPORATION LIMITED
Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $41.45
Goldman Sachs rates ((ARB)) as Neutral (3) -
Goldman Sachs revises its expectations for ARB Corporation, citing weaker-than-expected Australian Aftermarket sales tied to ongoing declines in new vehicle volumes.
The broker expects modest growth in the US through the 4 Wheel Parts (4WP) acquisition, which is likely to remain unprofitable until at least FY26.
Recent vehicle model releases in A&NZ could improve OEM revenue though challenges with consumer demand may limit short-term gains, note the analysts.
The target price falls to $39.20 from $40.00. Neutral.
This report was published on November 12, 2024.
Target price is $39.20 Current Price is $41.45 Difference: minus $2.25 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.20, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.88.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.4, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.20.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.9, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ASK ABACUS STORAGE KING
REITs - Overnight Price: $1.21
Moelis rates ((ASK)) as Hold (3) -
Abacus Storage King has increased its distribution guidance to 6.2 cents for FY25, up from 6.1 cents.
Moelis notes the upgrade reflects steady revenue growth of 3.7% year-on-year to $339 per square meter, driven by stable occupancy and higher rental rates.
The REIT plans to deliver 23,000 sqm of new storage space across four sites in FY25, with recent projects leasing at rates above pre-covid levels.
Gearing remains manageable at 28.9%, well within the target range. Moelis believes Abacus Storage King's valuation is attractive, trading at a -25% discount to NTA and yielding 5.2%
Buy rating retained with a rise in the target price to $1.38 from $1.34.
This report was published on November 12, 2024.
Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.17
If ASK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 18.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.91.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of -43.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.62.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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