Weekly Reports | Jan 24 2025
This story features LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LYC
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Lynas Rare Earths’ December quarter NdPr/REO production of 1.3kt/2.6kt, respectively, missed Canaccord Genuity’s and consensus forecasts, driven mainly by feedstock processing limits and impurity issues with Kalgoorlie.
Sales were in line with the broker’s forecast but below consensus, and pricing was also slightly lower vs the broker’s estimate.
The broker has lowered its average pricing forecast for FY25 by -10% and also lowered FY25 EBITDA by -18% on lower December quarter production numbers.
No change to price target of $7.5. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on valuation grounds.
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs and Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Goldman Sachs has updated estimates for Australian gold mining coverage to reflect mark-to-market for December quarter actuals, exchange rate and gold forward curves, an increase in its long-term gold price estimate to US$2,300/oz, ongoing review of asset lives/costs, and company-specific updates.
The broker notes stocks on average are pricing in less than US$2,300/oz, with Northern Star standing out at less than US$2,100/oz. The broker is positive on the outlook for the company on expanded Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines operations and other asset growth.
With the company going into a 2H production uplift and improving free cash flow generation, combined with other factors, the broker has upgraded Northern Star to Buy from Neutral. Target price lifts to $20.0 from $16.6.
Jarden increased its long-term gold price forecast to US$2,000/oz from US$1,800.
Incorporating this into Northern Star’s estimates has resulted in a lift in the target price to $15.8 from $13.0. The rating is also upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.
Looking ahead, the broker expects no change to the company’s FY25 guidance of 1.65-1.8moz.
Key catalysts for the remainder of FY25, other than progressing the De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition, include maintaining schedule and budget on the Kalgoorlie expansion, and increasing consistency of delivery from the expanded mills and associated ore sources, the broker says.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity reviews fundamentals for base metals and electric vehicle materials and updates forecasts for relevant stocks under research coverage.
Overall, the broker lowers its near-term copper, nickel and cobalt pricing, decreases near, mid and long-term lead pricing, and lowers
near-term spodumene and lithium chemicals pricing.
Earnings (EBITDA) revisions were generally lower for all companies under coverage on lower price assumptions, explain the analysts.
Canaccord sees value emerging at Sandfire Resources and upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold. The target falls to 10.75 from $11.25 on the broker’s lower near-term copper forecast.
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.
Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.
For Woodside Energy, the broker forecasts December quarter production of 51.5m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), -3% lower than September quarter but marginally higher than 51.1 mmboe consensus.
The forecast for sales volume is 54.1mmboe, -3% below the prior quarter but 2% above consensus.
Jarden’s sensitivity analysis for LNG spot price concludes Woodside is more sensitive than Santos ((STO) to a change in spot price assumption from an earnings and dividend perspective.
A combination of lower AUD and higher near-term spot LNG prices, and expected positive news flow around Woodside Louisiana sell-downs, has led to an increase in target price to $27.
The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.
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BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
[Jarden had downgraded to Neutral in the preceding update].
In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.
Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.
The broker forecasts Beach Energy to report 4.9m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) production in the December quarter, -6% lower than the September 2024 quarter but higher than the consensus of 4.8 mmboe.
Sales volume is forecast to be 20% higher at 6.6 mmboe and also higher vs consensus of 5.6 mmboe.
Aside from mark-to-market and updated commodity price assumptions, the broker has included additional LNG sales cargoes in FY25 and higher production estimates in Vic Otway and Bass Basin. This has pushed target price higher to $1.40 from $1.33.
The rating is Neutral, but the broker sees upside risk on a 3-6 month view.
COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden estimates that on a weighted average basis, the cash rate outlooks across Computershare’s portfolio have remained flat for FY25 but have lifted by 5-10bps from FY26 onwards, reflecting the ‘stronger for longer’ outlook. As such, the broker’s margin income
forecast for FY25 remains around US$745m, in line with guidance but FY26 estimate lifts by around 1%.
All in, the broker has raised the target price to $34.00 from $30.50 to reflect the USD rally, coupled with positive earnings revisions from
margin income upgrades.
The rating is lowered to Neutral from Overweight due to the recent share price rally.
HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity has updated forecasts for Hub24 following “very strong” net inflow numbers in the 2Q25 update which it believes matches the 1Q record performance.
The broker has raised platform funds under administration forecast for FY25 by 5.4% to $109.9bn and FY26 forecast by 4.9%.
Net profit forecast for 1H25 is $44.1m versus consensus of $42.9m.
Target price rises to $74.65 from $65.80 on higher EPS and DPS forecasts. However, the rating is lowered to Hold from Buy.
ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0
In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.
Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.
The broker forecasts a strong LNG December quarter for Origin Energy based on high flows along the APLNG pipeline, estimating a 3% increase vs the quarter before.
For domestic gas volumes, the broker forecasts a -19% decline reflecting lower seasonal demand for domestic c gas vs LNG. The broker’s overall APLNG revenue estimate of $763m is 11% ahead of consensus.
The broker has incorporated recent movements in electricity prices into Origin’s models, leading to around 19c increase in valuation. This, and other adjustments, pushed the target price higher to $10.65 from $9.90.
The rating is lowered to Underweight from Neutral due to concerns around the Sinopec price review impact and limited potential for higher-than-forecast dividends given capex plans.
Goldman Sachs previews the December quarter results for energy companies.
The broker downgrades Origin Energy to Neutral from Buy as the stock is up 17% in the last five months following a disappointing FY24 result.
Higher oil prices at US$80/bbl are expected to benefit the company, and if the crude oil spot price remains at US$80/bbl through 2025, the target price would rise to $10.50, the analyst states.
Free cash flow is anticipated to reach $1bn in FY25 compared to $0.63bn in FY24.
Target price rises to $10.40 from $10.30.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 2 | NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Goldman Sachs | |
| 3 | NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Jarden | |
| 4 | SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 5 | WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 6 | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 7 | COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 8 | HUB24 LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Canaccord Genuity | |
| 9 | ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Goldman Sachs | |
| 10 | ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEL | Amplitude Energy | $0.20 | Goldman Sachs | 0.26 | 0.25 | 4.00% |
| Jarden | 0.25 | 0.26 | -3.85% | |||
| AGL | AGL Energy | $11.62 | Goldman Sachs | 11.65 | 11.50 | 1.30% |
| ASN | Anson Resources | $0.06 | Petra Capital | 0.31 | 0.35 | -11.43% |
| BGL | Bellevue Gold | $1.15 | Goldman Sachs | 1.55 | 1.80 | -13.89% |
| BHP | BHP Group | $39.12 | Goldman Sachs | 46.80 | 47.40 | -1.27% |
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.52 | Goldman Sachs | 1.33 | 1.26 | 5.56% |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.35 | 1.26 | 7.14% | |||
| Jarden | 1.40 | 1.33 | 5.26% | |||
| CKF | Collins Foods | $7.17 | Jarden | 9.40 | 9.20 | 2.17% |
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | $7.60 | Goldman Sachs | 7.55 | 6.15 | 22.76% |
| CPU | Computershare | $34.21 | Jarden | 34.00 | 30.50 | 11.48% |
| CSL | CSL | $270.00 | Goldman Sachs | 325.40 | 307.00 | 5.99% |
| DEG | De Grey Mining | $2.01 | Goldman Sachs | N/A | 1.40 | -100.00% |
| DMP | Domino’s Pizza Enterprises | $29.66 | Jarden | 40.00 | 42.00 | -4.76% |
| EVN | Evolution Mining | $5.66 | Goldman Sachs | 5.15 | 4.50 | 14.44% |
| EVO | Embark Early Education | $0.76 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.02 | 0.96 | 6.25% |
| FBU | Fletcher Building | $2.59 | Goldman Sachs | 2.65 | 2.75 | -3.64% |
| Jarden | 3.76 | N/A | – | |||
| GDG | Generation Development | $4.27 | Moelis | 4.91 | 3.91 | 25.58% |
| GOR | Gold Road Resources | $2.47 | Goldman Sachs | 2.65 | 2.35 | 12.77% |
| HGO | Hillgrove Resources | $0.04 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.08 | 0.10 | -15.79% |
| Moelis | 0.07 | 0.08 | -12.50% | |||
| HUB | Hub24 | $75.99 | Canaccord Genuity | 74.65 | 65.80 | 13.45% |
| Jarden | 60.05 | 50.85 | 18.09% | |||
| Moelis | 77.08 | 67.92 | 13.49% | |||
| Wilsons | 80.00 | 74.41 | 7.51% | |||
| IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $8.82 | Goldman Sachs | 8.10 | 7.50 | 8.00% |
| IGO | IGO Ltd | $5.21 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.30 | 4.70 | -8.51% |
| ILU | Iluka Resources | $4.63 | Goldman Sachs | 7.40 | 7.70 | -3.90% |
| IRE | Iress | $9.53 | Wilsons | 11.00 | 10.26 | 7.21% |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | $54.25 | Goldman Sachs | 59.30 | 57.85 | 2.51% |
| KAR | Karoon Energy | $1.41 | Goldman Sachs | 2.04 | 2.15 | -5.12% |
| Jarden | 1.90 | 2.00 | -5.00% | |||
| LTR | Liontown Resources | $0.66 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.60 | 0.90 | -33.33% |
| Canaccord Genuity | 0.70 | 0.90 | -22.22% | |||
| Goldman Sachs | 0.71 | 0.87 | -18.39% | |||
| LYC | Lynas Rare Earths | $6.63 | Goldman Sachs | 7.40 | 7.30 | 1.37% |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | $35.37 | Jarden | 27.60 | 31.20 | -11.54% |
| MYR | Myer | $0.96 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.15 | 1.25 | -8.00% |
| NEC | Nine Entertainment | $1.33 | Jarden | 1.50 | 1.55 | -3.23% |
| NST | Northern Star Resources | $17.28 | Canaccord Genuity | 22.85 | 21.95 | 4.10% |
| Goldman Sachs | 19.80 | 16.60 | 19.28% | |||
| Goldman Sachs | 20.00 | 16.60 | 20.48% | |||
| Jarden | 15.40 | 13.10 | 17.56% | |||
| Jarden | 15.80 | 13.10 | 20.61% | |||
| NWS | News Corp | $49.89 | Jarden | 50.30 | 49.80 | 1.00% |
| OBM | Ora Banda Mining | $0.75 | Moelis | 0.83 | 0.81 | 2.47% |
| ORG | Origin Energy | $11.32 | Goldman Sachs | 10.40 | 10.30 | 0.97% |
| Jarden | 10.65 | 9.90 | 7.58% | |||
| PDI | Predictive Discovery | $0.27 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.52 | 0.50 | 4.00% |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | $2.32 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.60 | 3.90 | -7.69% |
| Jarden | 2.50 | 3.30 | -24.24% | |||
| PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $25.11 | Wilsons | 26.50 | 20.50 | 29.27% |
| PNR | Pantoro | $0.11 | Moelis | 0.15 | 0.14 | 7.14% |
| QOR | Qoria | $0.43 | Wilsons | 0.57 | 0.55 | 3.64% |
| REH | Reece | $23.05 | Goldman Sachs | 22.80 | 23.10 | -1.30% |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | $118.00 | Goldman Sachs | 146.20 | 135.10 | 8.22% |
| RMD | ResMed | $39.35 | Goldman Sachs | 48.90 | 33.50 | 45.97% |
| RRL | Regis Resources | $3.21 | Goldman Sachs | 2.70 | 2.05 | 31.71% |
| RWC | Reliance Worldwide | $5.33 | Goldman Sachs | 6.05 | 5.93 | 2.02% |
| S32 | South32 | $3.53 | Goldman Sachs | 4.00 | 3.90 | 2.56% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $9.90 | Canaccord Genuity | 10.75 | 11.25 | -4.44% |
| STO | Santos | $7.13 | Goldman Sachs | 8.14 | 7.90 | 3.04% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | $20.06 | Goldman Sachs | 20.50 | 19.20 | 6.77% |
| VEA | Viva Energy | $2.72 | Goldman Sachs | 3.35 | 3.30 | 1.52% |
| VUL | Vulcan Energy Resources | $5.35 | Canaccord Genuity | 11.75 | 11.50 | 2.17% |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | $24.95 | Goldman Sachs | 25.00 | 26.20 | -4.58% |
| Goldman Sachs | 25.90 | 26.20 | -1.15% | |||
| Jarden | 27.00 | 26.80 | 0.75% | |||
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
CEH COAST ENTERTAINMENT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $0.47
Canaccord Genuity rates ((CEH)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity notes Coast Entertainment’s 1H25 trading update was “definitely” positive, reaffirming the positive operating trajectory the company is now on. The 1H25 result was for the period ending December 24, so new rides in Rivertown had only one day of contribution.
Revenue of $47.7m was in line with the broker’s estimate. With the company’s commentary suggesting multiple growth levers like new attractions, pricing initiatives and international visitation recovery, the broker will await more information to adjust FY25 operating forecasts.
No change to 60c target price and Buy rating.
This report was published on January 21, 2025.
Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.135
If CEH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 46.50.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGS COGSTATE LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $1.19
Canaccord Genuity rates ((CGS)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity notes Cogstate’s 1H25 trading update was in line with expectations and marked an improvement over last year’s softer result.
The broker is more confident in its US$47.2m FY25 revenue forecast after the update.
No change to $1.45 target price and Buy rating.
This report was published on January 19, 2025.
Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.265
If CGS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.85.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.25.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GDG GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments Overnight Price: $4.27
Moelis rates ((GDG)) as Buy (1)
Generation Development is going from strength to strength, Moelis states in response to the latest quarterly market update.
Sales inflow of $250 for the December quarter beat the broker’s forecast for $190m. In addition, growth in Lonsec Research remains solid, the broker observes, with new product growth underpinned by the continuing expansion of the private market offerings from fund managers.
New product initiatives saw the launch of Lonsec Research logos and SuperRatings enter into a new UK agreement. Forecasts have been upgraded.
Buy rating retained. The stock price valuation is supported by growth, Moelis highlights. The target price has improved to $4.91.
This report was published on January 23, 2025.
Target price is $4.91 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.64
If GDG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.37.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 172.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.54.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
QOR QORIA LIMITED
Software & Services Overnight Price: $0.44
Canaccord Genuity rates ((QOR)) as Buy (1)
Canaccord Genuity notes Qoria’s 2Q25 result showed continuing positive underlying momentum in key operating metrics, setting up a platform for ongoing strong annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth and operating leverage into FY25-26
The broker has modestly revised higher its estimate for FY25-FY26 ARR, but lowered EBITDA for FY25-26 given its revised understanding of the company’s guidance.
No change to target price and Buy rating.
This report was published on January 21, 2025.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.11
If QOR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.00.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.00.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CPU - COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DEG - DE GREY MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HUB - HUB24 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR - SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WDS - WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED