Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 22-10-21

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Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday October 18 to Friday October 22, 2021
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 19
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 54.68%; Hold 38.54%; Sell 6.77%

For the week ending Friday October 22, there were fourteen upgrades and nineteen downgrades to ASX-listed companies covered by brokers in the FNArena database.

There was only one material change to forecast target prices. Aristocrat Leisure received the largest percentage upgrade by brokers after making an offer for UK online gaming software provider, Playtech. The transaction is worth $5bn, to be funded by cash, debt and equity.

Macquarie considers the potential acquisition highly complementary to the company’s existing business and has upgraded its rating to Outperform from Hold. Morgans agrees and feels the transaction creates an opportunity to get to scale quickly in a market segment forecast to grow at a double digit rate over the next five years.

Meanwhile, Audinate Group had the largest percentage decrease in forecast earnings last week. This came after news of a supply shortage of silicon chips used in products that have historically accounted for 43% of Audinate's revenue. All three covering brokers in the FNArena database consider this situation to be transitory.

29Metals was next after the September quarter featured weak production at Golden Grove, offsetting a better result at Capricorn Copper, according to Macquarie. Management has nonetheless retained 2021 production guidance though the broker believes costs will be higher than guidance suggests.

More positively, the analyst believes grades at Golden Grove should lead to significant improvement in earnings and cash flow in the December quarter. Credit Suisse, likewise is upbeat, and suggests the company offers the best value copper play on the ASX. 

Zip Co was next as first quarter revenue revealed a negative impact in the US from rebranding and Macquarie noted implied growth rates in September were well below those disclosed as part of FY21 results. Australasian growth is also considered to have moderated. Morgans is also cautious, and believes the FY22 consensus revenue forecast will be hard to achieve and downgrades both its FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts.

By initiating coverage on Nickel Mines, Ord Minnett effectively lowered what is now a four-broker average forecast earnings figure derived from the FNArena database. The broker begins with an Accumulate rating and a $1.10 target price. The miner is considered a unique Indonesian nickel pig iron producer that is generating significant cash flow.

On the flipside, Coronado Global Resources had the largest percentage increase in forecast earnings last week. Commenting after soft September quarter coal sales, Macquarie noted buoyant prices continue to drive earnings and valuation upside, with current spot prices suggesting an 85% free cash flow yield. Credit Suisse expects future increases in US domestic contract pricing will increase earnings by as much as US$230m in 2022, and lifts its target price to $2.00 from $1.60.

Both Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Coal featured in the table for material rises in forecast earnings and it seems the common factor is Macquarie. The broker revisited the investment theses for coal miners after reports that China is studying intervention measures and price caps. 

The broker is forecasting a retraction in coal prices though considers present upside is material and maintains a positive view on both companies, which are enjoying free cash flow yields of more than 20% on the analyst's forecasts.

In another positive for Whitehaven Coal, its September quarter production report suggests to Morgans there’s upside risk to the broker's base-case FY22 price forecast.

Finally, brokers generally put aside the slightly disappointing third quarter results for Alumina Ltd, as alumina prices have climbed sharply after the end of the quarter to around US$480/t. This suggests to Citi that margins will be strong in the fourth quarter. Morgan Stanley agrees and notes that while third quarter costs were a 6% miss versus the broker’s estimate, this was largely driven by production disruptions.

Total Buy recommendations take up 54.68 % of the total, versus 38.54% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.77%.

Upgrade

ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED ((ALL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Aristocrat Leisure has made an offer for the UK's Playtech, worth $5bn, to be funded cash, debt and equity. The acquisition will provide technology and scale in order to pursue the real money gaming (RMG) market, particularly North America where the company is yet to make its presence felt.

Macquarie considers the acquisition highly complementary to Aristocrat Leisure and notes many opportunities. The broker considers the valuation compelling and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $52.75 from $39.00.

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold for Atlas Arteria on an attractive 12-month potential return and a 5-year equity internal rate of return of 8.6% per annum. The target price lifts to $6.61 from $6.44 on improved asset performance and valuation assumptions.

Had it not been for adverse exchange rate movements, the lift in target price would have been 21cps greater, explains the analyst. It's conceded there's still uncertainty over the shape of the traffic recovery.

BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Bapcor managed to achieve flat year on year revenue growth in the September quarter, with growth in wholesale of 7% offsetting a -12% drop in retail with 70% of stores locked down. Some margin pressure was suffered due to higher costs, but should ease post-lockdowns.

Morgans suggests the quarter showed the resilience of revenues and the potential once normal operating conditions fully resume. With sufficient valuation upside having emerged, the broker upgrades to Add from Hold.

Target rises to $8.45 from $8.25.

BHP GROUP LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Morgans remains cautious on the iron ore market, but has upgraded BHP to Add from Hold, citing three reasons, the fist being recent share price weakness which implies an iron ore price of US$61/t.

Otherwise, the value of the Petroleum demerger has increased on the back of Woodside Petroleum's ((WPL)) share price increase, on the back of rising oil prices, and furthermore, despite the plunge in the iron ore price BHP will still be able to pay a 10%-plus dividend yield.

Target rises to $46.05 from $45.20 despite a mixed September quarter, hampered by maintenance.

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Bluescope Steel has increased first half earnings before tax guidance by $300m to $2.1-2.3bn, in a move that Credit Suisse notes was largely anticipated. 

The broker noted around $160m of the earnings increase was driven by US North Star spreads, reportedly US$570 per tonne compared to a modeled US$420 per tonne. Credit Suisse expects current trends to continue into 2022, with strong demand already predicted.

An additional $120m of the earnings increase was attributed by the broker to higher volumes and improved margins in Australian Steel.

The rating is upgraded to Outperform and the target price increases to $28.30 from $26.00.

See also BSL downgrade.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Domino's Pizza Enterprises reiterated its European long-term store target at the 2021 Europe Investor Day. 

Macquarie expects store ramp-ups in December and June but says covid headwinds persist, including lack of tourism, labour shortages, inflation and social distancing restrictions.

The broker revises down EPS forecasts -2.5% for FY22, but raises FY23 and FY24 forecast 4.3% and 2.8% expecting covid headwinds to dissipate.

Target price rises to $132.50 from $113.00.

The broker upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, thanks to the recent share price retreat.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Morgan Stanley upgrades its rating for GPT Group to Equal-weight from Underweight and lifts its target price to $5.30 from $4.70. Industry view is In-Line. This comes as Sydney prime grade office reaches its first material quarter of positive net absorption.

Total absorption is the total new square footage leased by tenants. The analyst likes the portfolio re-balance in in the last 18 months away from retail. The current split is 38% Retail, 39% Office and 23% Industrial compared to the prior split of 43%, 41% and 16%, respectively. 

The broker hasn't included a range of potential positive-catalyst deals in forecasts, which would provide additional impetus above and beyond factors involved in the current rating upgrade.

See also GPT downgrade.

HOME CONSORTIUM ((HMC)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Home Consortium and HomeCo Daily Needs ((HDN)) plan to acquire Aventus Group ((AVN)) at $3.82 a share. Ord Minnett observes the acquisition will lift Home Consortium's funds under management towards $5bn, ahead of its December 2022 target.

The broker is optimistic about the transaction for the company's investors, given the material earnings accretion. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten and the target raised to $7.50 from $6.40.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/1/1

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, lifting its target multiple for the lithium business to 22x FY23.

The broker believes this multiple is warranted, given the exposure to a tier-1 lithium business, low cost profile and expansion opportunities. Target is raised to $10.70 from $9.20.

NANOSONICS LIMITED ((NAN)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/1

Morgans upgrades its rating for Nanosonics to Add from Hold as there is more than 15% upside to its target price, which has been lowered to $6.97 from $7.26. The lower target comes as the analyst realigns its cost base in-line with management guidance.

By increasing the cost-base forecast to $90m from $82.5m, the broker's profit forecast falls to $10.8m from $15.3m. A continued investment in R&D helps underpin the long-term growth prospects in the business, believes Morgans.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/6/0

Orora reiterated full year growth guidance at its AGM and announced a new $150m buyback.

First half earnings for Australian beverages are expected to decline due to the loss of Chinese wine sales. The company has done a good job of replacing that market, Macquarie notes, but the impact will take a while to flow though.

Solid demand and well managed costs should deliver growth in North America earnings.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Hold on a forecast total shareholder return of 16% and a PE discount to market. Target unchanged at $3.60.

PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED ((PAN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Panoramic Resources has reported its first concentration milestone three weeks ahead of schedule and is on track for a December shipment, reports Macquarie.

The broker expects the miner will now turn its attention to exploration at Savannah.

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, given the risk profile is much lower.

Target price rises 22% to 28c from 23c. 

TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED ((TCL)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgans upgrades its rating to Add from Hold after adjusting its valuation approach to concession-based assets, which also lifts its target price to $14.82 from $13.99. Following the recent retail entitlement offer, it's thought there's a current opportunity to buy shares.

WORLEY LIMITED ((WOR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Worley offers leverage to a large increase in sustainable energy and decarbonisation investment, UBS asserts. The broker estimates a cumulative investment of US$115trn is required to achieve net zero emission targets by 2050.

Sustainability projects are small but fast growing and with sales of 14% of the portfolio this is up 24% on FY20 levels, and these projects make up 32% of the company's future bid pipeline.

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $13.20 from $11.65. FY22-24 earnings estimates are upgraded by 1-5%.

Downgrade

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/4/0

A price spike in September did not translate to the September quarter margin from AWAC, given the one-month lag in alumina pricing. As the current price is US$482/t , Credit Suisse increases its December quarter price realisation estimate for Alumina Ltd to US$450/t.

The broker does not believe the current prices is sustainable as supply interruptions should be temporary, although alumina should not return to the low US$300 range.

Credit Suisse does not recommend chasing the stock at the current price and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Nevertheless, dividend yields on a 12-month view are expected to be close to 8% and support the current price. Target is $1.90.

BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED ((BSL)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgan Stanley assesses US steel prices have peaked and finds it hard to see BlueScope Steel outperforming in an environment of declining prices. The broker lowers its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight and slashes its target price to $23.50 from $29.50.

According to the broker's US strategists, lead times in the US have declined and service center inventories are reading a point of inflexion.

Prices are likely to remain at historically favourable levels across FY22, which will be supportive for cash flows and potentially a continuation of capital management, believes the analyst.

See also BSL upgrade.

CAMPLIFY HOLDINGS LIMITED ((CHL)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

After a first quarter update by Camplify Holdings, Morgans increases its target price to $4.20 from $1.99 though reduces its rating to Hold from Add, due to the share price tripling since IPO.

The analyst highlights continued growth in Australia led by Queensland and WA, while the UK and Spain are showing promising early momentum post covid restrictions. There's considered a prodigious growth opportunity and the analyst likes the business model. 

CLASS LIMITED ((CL1)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

HUB24 ((HUB)) has launched a bid for Class through a scheme of arrangement on an implied price of $3.11 – a 72% premium to Class's last price prior to the offer. 

Ord Minnett describes the offer as compelling, and notes the bid price offers little room for a rival bid although stranger things have been known to happen.

HUB24 says Class will continue to operate separately.

Target price rises to $3 from $2.40, the broker noting there is some time for the transaction to play out, and rating falls to Hold from Buy.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, given relative valuation. FY22 is expected to be weighted to the second half as the company incorporates the Kundana/EKJV assets. Cowal is also expected to provide softer production because of major maintenance in August.

The broker also makes changes to estimates for earnings per share to reflect a modest reduction in Ernest Henry production and the extension of the ramp up at Red Lake. Target is reduced to $3.80 from $4.30.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/0

GPT Group has confirmed its acquisition of the Ascot portfolio for -$681.7m, containing 24 assets. The transaction is expected to complete in November, and the company is guiding to it being earnings accretive within the first year. 

While Credit Suisse estimates the acquisition to generate an additional $15m per annum, the broker notes there is uncertainty in GPT Group's earnings outlook.

The company has not acquired three office properties and one industrial property that were originally included in the portfolio, reducing the price from an initial $800m. Funds from operations forecasts increase 0.9%, 2.9% and 2.8% through to FY23. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price increases to $5.26 from $5.02. 

See also GPT upgrade.

IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

IDP Educations' trading update indicated a mostly strong recovery in growth, with IELTS volumes up 84% year on year, of which 55% was organic. However this required 120% growth from the northern hemisphere to counter -24% in Australia.

Growth in the US/Canada was the highlight for Morgans, supporting longer term growth expectations. But while the broker remains attracted to IDP's market share opportunity through acquisitions, valuation has now become stretched.

Target rises to $38.20 from $31.25, downgrade to Hold from Add.

OZ MINERALS LIMITED ((OZL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Oz Minerals' September-quarter production was robust and Citi raises net profit estimates for 2021 by 3%. Still, the share price is up 20% over two weeks so the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $27.00 from $27.50.

Growth projects are going forward with the expansion of the shaft mine at Prominent Hill's Wira commencing and the West Musgrave study progressing. September-quarter copper production rose 3% despite a lower contribution from Carrapateena.

Oz Minerals' third quarter update revealed higher-gold-grade stockpiles at Prominent Hill, which led to a guidance upgrade for gold production and group all-in sustaining costs (AISC).

Morgan Stanley points to lower copper grades at Carrapateena and lower mining grades and tonnages at Prominent Hill. Equal-weight rating is maintained. Target is steady at $23.50. Industry view: In-Line.

SUNRISE ENERGY METALS LIMITED ((SRL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Following a first quarter update, Macquarie lowers its rating to Neutral from Outperform over the uncertainty in securing a funding and development partner for the Sunrise Nickel-Cobalt project. The $2.10 target price is unchanged.

In the broker's base case, it's assumed the development is funded via US$1.4bn in debt, US$0.5bn in offtake finance and a US$0.5bn equity raising at $1.40. A short-term catalyst is envisaged when assay results from the Phoenix Platinum Zone arrive.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Super Retail Group's rating to Hold from Accumulate after assessing a full valuation and sees downside risk of up to -7% for consensus earnings forecasts. This comes despite like-for-like sales growth being thought resilient in the first 16 weeks of the first half. 

The analyst believes gross margins have likely peaked at 48% in FY21 and expects them to moderate by -70bps per year over the next two years. The return of promotions and increased logistics costs are cited as the main causes. Target price rises to $14.20 from $14.

SENEX ENERGY LIMITED ((SXY)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse and Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/5/0

POSCO has announced a $4.40 a share offer for Senex Energy and Credit Suisse expects a higher offer (of roughly $4.60) may be in the wings, which would take it closer to the more typical 30% takeover premium.

The broker says other suitors may enter the fray. Senex's September-quarter update met the broker and consensus estimates.

Target price rises to $4.47 from $3.52 but rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform to reflect low deal risks (broker's view) such as FIRB, government and due diligence surprises, on top of recent share-price strength.

Morgans remains bullish on oil fundamentals, thinks the oil cycle has a long way to go and expects Australian oil and gas stocks to gradually re-rate. The broker upgrades its forecasts across the sector to mark-to-market the recent oil price strength.

After a 64% share price rise over the last 12 months for Senex Energy, the broker reduces its rating to Hold from Add. This is due to valuation and as the company has received a potential takeover offer from Posco International. The target price rises to $4.30 from $4.20.

Citi has responded to the prospect of a full take-over by Posco through a downgrade to Neutral from Buy for target Senex Energy.

Target $4.32. Citi sees limites scop for suitor Posco to increase its $4.40 offer to Senex shareholders.

Senex Energy has been in discussions regarding a potential takeover by South Korea's POSCO. Ord Minnett believes the conditional offer price of $4.40 is fair and with no obvious reason for the transaction it appears opportunistic.

The broker is also unsure whether there could be a counter bid. The Foreign Investment Review Board could also be a significant obstacle as Senex Energy services 4% of east coast gas demand.

Ord Minnett raises the target to $4.40 from $4.10 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

VIMY RESOURCES LIMITED ((VMY)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

The definitive feasibility study of Vimy Resources' Mulga Rock project confirmed a robust operation, Morgans notes. Vimy's exemption from WA's ban on uranium mining requires commencement of Mulga Rock by December, assuming approvals.

With approvals now received and funding in place, early works have begun. Target rises to 25c from 17c but on the share price run-up from under 10c, driven by higher uranium prices, the broker pulls back to Hold from Add.

WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

West African Resources reported in-line production levels for the third quarter, but better-than-expected all-in sustaining costs and gold sales beat Macquarie's forecasts by -9% and 16% respectively. 

The company expects fourth quarter results to exceed the third quarter, implying a full year beat on production guidance. The broker increases earnings per share forecasts 2% in 2021. 

Given recent strong share price performance, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price increases to $1.50 from $1.20. 

WEBJET LIMITED ((WEB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Macquarie downgrades Webjet to Neutral from Outperform in response to recent share-price strength. Target price rises to $6.65 from $6.45.

Webjet's annual general meeting tells Macquarie that global uncertainty persists but signs of a strong and instant recovery have featured where borders have re-opened (international leisure bookings now outpace domestic bookings)

The broker pushes out the growth profile 6-9 months to reflect A&NZ border closures. Several countries are profitable or approaching break-even.

EPS forecasts rise 15% and 4% for FY22 to FY24.

WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED ((WPL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie notes Woodside Petroleum is unlikely to capture current higher spot LNG pricing given weak production driven by impacts from the North West Shelf. The broker expects third quarter production levels to be the weakest reported since the second quarter in FY19. 

Earnings per share forecasts for FY21 are updated by -3.1% given lower output. Macquarie also noted Woodside Petroleum share price is up more than 30% since reported lows in August. 

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and the target price decreases to $27.15 from $27.25.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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