Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 19, 2023

This story features AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIA   AVG   AZJ   CLW   CQR   CSL (2)   CWP   DDR   DMP   EHL   GTN   IAG (2)   INA   MAQ (2)   MGH (2)   NWC   PME   RFG   TLG   XRO  

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.66

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Underweight (4) –

The NZ Commerce Commission has published a draft decision is on its seven-yearly review of the methodologies for regulated airports, electricity and gas services.

For Auckland International Airport the main area of debate has related to the appropriate asset beta and the extent to which the recent disruptions from the pandemic have highlighted a higher risk profile, Jarden asserts.

Hence, the broker is surprised there appears to be little consideration given to the covid period in the draft decision. All up, Jarden concludes there is meaningful risk for a downward adjustment to the airport's target return but this is unlikely to be resolved for some time.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and NZ$7.65 target.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Current Price is $7.66. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -6.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 85.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVG    AUSTRALIAN VINTAGE LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.45

Moelis rates ((AVG)) as Buy (1) –

FY23 guidance by Australian Vintage included a higher D&A charge than Moelis was expecting. While the 2023 vintage is expected to be down -22% to 80kt, the analyst points out management is outperforming the industry vintage decline of -40%.

The company continues to gain market share and is clearly focused on improving margins, highlights the broker, with $9m in cost-out initiatives identified and benefits expected to flow in FY24 and beyond.

Nonetheless, Moelis lowers its FY23-25 earnings (EBITS) forecasts by -$2.3m, -$4.0m and -$7.8m to reflect the higher D&A, lower pricing growth and a more gradual decline in sea freight costs. The target falls to 45c from 60c. Buy.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.005
If AVG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.79.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.47.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.76

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Aurizon Holdings is awaiting final approvals for the extension of its network returns framework (UT5) to the end of FY27. Jarden assesses there is room for considerable improvement in the RAB, inflation indexation rate and WACC outlook

There is also scope for improved earnings within the coal business as customer disruptions ease. The broker makes small increases to EPS forecast for FY23 and a more meaningful upgrade to FY24.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $3.80 from $3.55.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.04
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of -21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 24.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.07

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Underweight (4) –

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT has provided details of its valuation process. Valuations are declining and Jarden envisages further downside risk as yields remain well below the cost of capital.

Portfolio valuations were down -5.8% based on 36 basis points of capitalisation rate expansion and offset by applied rental growth of 2.5-3.0%.

Look-through gearing is approaching 40% and, while the broker is not concerned about debt covenants, this will limit the ability of the A-REIT to benefit from opportunities that may emerge in this market.

Underweight rating and $4.60 target maintained.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.53
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.63

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

Charter Hall Retail REIT has results of its valuation process and while valuations are declining Jarden believes the downside risk in non-discretionary retail is less than in most other asset classes.

Portfolio valuations were down -3.7% based on 29 basis points of capitalisation rate expansion and offset by the implied rental growth of 2.0%.

While its non-discretionary focus has proven more resilient, a longer-than-expected slowdown for retailers could put pressure on the A-REIT's earnings and valuation, the broker adds. Overweight rating and $4.55 target maintained.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.92
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of -75.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of -1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $277.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSL)) as Neutral (3) –

CSL has signalled net profit in FY23 is likely to be at the top end of the $2.7-2.8bn range. Significantly, the company has announced new FY24 net profit guidance of $2.9-3.0bn, assuming modest improvement in gross margins.

The company now expects CSL Behring will return to pre-pandemic gross margins over the medium term (defined as 3-5 years). 

While the volume recovery is underway the uncertainties about margin and returns keeps the broker on the sidelines and a Neutral rating is retained. The target is reduced to $295 from $314.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $295.00 Current Price is $277.86 Difference: $17.14
If CSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $331.17, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 354.76 cents and EPS of 725.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 773.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 360.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 472.02 cents and EPS of 892.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 944.2, implying annual growth of 22.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 446.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

CSL has flagged an increase in its FX headwinds although expects constant currency net profit to be at the top end of the US$2.7-2.8bn range. Jarden is also surprised at the early release of guidance.

The net profit guidance of $2.88-3.01bn has signalled a much slower recovery than previously expected. Jarden downgrades estimates based on the deterioration in FX and a slower recovery to the CSL Behring gross margin.

The Overweight rating is maintained with the broker's investment view largely on track, despite the delays. Target is reduced to $322.48 from $347.80.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $322.48 Current Price is $277.86 Difference: $44.62
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $331.17, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 323.59 cents and EPS of 674.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 773.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 360.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 341.40 cents and EPS of 894.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 944.2, implying annual growth of 22.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 446.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWP    CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.92

Moelis rates ((CWP)) as Buy (1) –

Cedar Woods Properties has downgraded FY23 earnings guidance by -20% citing delayed settlements because of adverse weather conditions throughout the year as well as supply chain constraints.

Importantly, Moelis points out, the earnings are not lost but simply deferred into FY24. On the positive side, despite relatively soft consumer sentiment, sales have continued to improve throughout recent months.

The broker updates estimates to reflect revise guidance and maintains a Buy rating with a $5.93 target.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $5.93 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $1.01
If CWP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 37.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.23.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 49.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.98.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $8.19

Petra Capital rates ((DDR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital believes upside risks for Dicker Data from realising acquisition synergies and participating in the post-pandemic PC refresh cycle more than offset falling demand for new PCs and further interest rate rises.

The broker expects the track record of above-system sales and earnings growth will continue over the medium term and considers the 2023 P/E ratio of 17.1x compelling value.

Buy rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $10.26 from $10.38.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $10.26 Current Price is $8.19 Difference: $2.07
If DDR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.32.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 52.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.48.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $43.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((DMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Domino's Pizza Enterprises has announced cost savings initiatives amid plans to exit the Danish market.

Excluding Taiwan, which is still cycling the impact of the pandemic, second half same-store sales growth was 1%, although Goldman Sachs notes most of this was "ticket increase" as customers declined over the same period.

Goldman Sachs lowers FY23-25 revenue estimates by -1-8% and EBIT by -14-20%. The broker remains cautious about the FY24-25 outlook with continued uncertainty around streamlining the operations and the recent removal of delivery fees in Australasia in Japan.

Neutral reiterated. Target is reduced to $41.20 from $57.60.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $41.20 Current Price is $43.88 Difference: minus $2.68 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $53.63, suggesting upside of 18.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 141.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 151.8, implying annual growth of -17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 177.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.8, implying annual growth of 24.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.68

Jarden rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1) –

The trading update from Emeco Holdings has revealed improving momentum in the second half and Jarden updates FY23 underlying EBITDA forecasts to the mid point of the updated guidance range, which has narrowed to $248-252m.

The broker believes improving momentum in the rental business and a recovery in Pit N Portal should be welcome news for investors, particularly as the share price has been weak recently.

The broker retains long-term earnings and margin forecasts along with a Buy rating and unchanged $1.10 target.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.42
If EHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.24.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.59.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTN    GTN LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.46

Petra Capital rates ((GTN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes GTN is intending to leverage existing relationships and expand beyond radio advertising with drone shows to play a crucial role. Also key is automobile advertising which has experienced an upturn.

The company's Global Drone Network has strong partnerships with top-tier advertising clients and a novel platform to effectively engage consumers. Petra Capital estimate shows have the potential to earn between $100-150,000 at relatively high incremental margins.

Buy rating and $0.85 target maintained. The broker believes the stock is overlooked by the investment community and further improvements in free cash flow over the next three years should be the catalyst for a re-rating.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.395
If GTN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.90 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.22.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

After the investor briefing Goldman Sachs notes operating trends bode favourably for FY24 with premium rate increases very strong across Insurance Australia Group. Yet, perils allowance for FY24 and reinsurance renewals could impact the upside.

The broker notes a clear focus on margin and policy retention over new business, given the cost pressures. Medium-term margin guidance has been recalibrated down to 15% along with return on equity of 13-14%.

The broker considers the targets "more sustainable" but also conducive to organic growth. Neutral rating and $5.29 target maintained.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $5.29 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting downside of -4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 77.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 41.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

The investor briefing from Insurance Australia Group has provided Jarden with increased confidence that underlying profitability is rebounding following a weak first half.

Still, although largely anticipated, the step down from a prior 15-17% target for medium-term ITR margins to 15% is disappointing and potentially reflects the need to balance customer affordability pressures and the sizeable IT transformation task.

The broker keeps its Overweight rating and $5.50 target.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting downside of -4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 77.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of 41.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((INA)) as Neutral (3) –

The new FY23 settlement guidance from Ingenia Communities is at the bottom end of the prior range of 370-420 and Goldman Sachs believes this increases the risks to medium-term guidance (FY23-25), reducing expectations to 1600 compared with 1700 previously.

Still, the broker remains positive on structural growth in the residential land lease sector, noting build times and supply chains are gradually normalising.

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $4.20 from $4.85.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.16
If INA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.41, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAQ    MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $66.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((MAQ)) as Buy (1) –

Macquarie Technology has announced a $130m placement to strengthen its balance sheet and reiterated FY23 EBITDA guidance of $102-104m.

FY23 capital expenditure guidance has been lowered to $60-63m, given a further delay in the DA for IC3 Super West and a change in product mix. Growth expenditure is now expected to be skewed towards FY24.

Overall, Goldman Sachs considers the update positive with the potential for the company to capitalise on the third wave of data centre demand that is driven through AI computing.

Target is $75.30. Buy retained.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $75.30 Current Price is $66.42 Difference: $8.88
If MAQ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 128.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.89.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((MAQ)) as Overweight (1) –

Macquarie Technology is seeking to raise $130m to accelerate its data centre strategy. From a liquidity perspective Wilsons believes this should increase the stock's appeal to investors that could result in the narrowing of the EV/EBITDA multiple discount to NextDC ((NXT)) and other data centre peers.

Still, the broker points out a discount is warranted given the telecom segment made up 18% of the company's EBITDA in the first half and this is significantly lower margin than data centre or cloud business. Overweight rating and $70.48 target maintained.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $70.48 Current Price is $66.42 Difference: $4.06
If MAQ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 76.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.48.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 103.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.93.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.82

Goldman Sachs rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs updates estimates following the investment briefing from Maas Group. A softer residential real estate market has been flagged as the driver of tighter guidance (to the lower end of the prior range), given rising interest rates and concerns regarding builder insolvencies.

The broker believes the market will remain difficult until purchasers can gain greater comfort regarding the interest-rate outlook.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs is confident in the strength of the company's real estate division while noting construction and construction materials are performing well. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.85 from $4.00.

This report was published on June 14, 2023.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $1.03
If MGH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis lowers FY23-25 EPS forecasts by -7%, -10% and -8%, respectively, after Maas Group lowered FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance by -5.7%, due to subdued settlements on lower buyer confidence due to rising interest rates.

The broker's target falls to $3.68 from $3.90.

Management remains fundamentally positive on the medium term residential outlook, observes the analyst, with low supply and vacancy set against an expectation for strong net migration.

For now, the broker assumes near term settlement conditions persist into the 1H of FY24. It's noted a quicker-than-expected recovery in confidence and buyer activity represents the main source of upside risk. Buy.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.86
If MGH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.37.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.10 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWC    NEW WORLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NWC)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

New World Resources has an enhanced scoping study for the Antler copper project in Arizona. This shows an optimised and upgraded mining study compared with the prior study with overall grade slipping to 3% copper equivalent and recoveries also decreasing.

Capital expenditure has increased to US$252m, which is no surprise to Canaccord Genuity, given the plant has been increased to an average of 1.4mtpa from 1mtpa.

Despite an increase in commodity price assumptions the commencement of mining, now slated for FY27, has impacted valuation and the target is reduced to $0.15 from $0.18. Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.117
If NWC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 355% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $68.81

Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Neutral (3) –

Pro Medicus has indicated it has 6% share of around 650m US scans, now processing around 40m radiology scans in the US each year. Management has signalled opportunities are progressing more quickly than historically has been the case.

The company also expects to benefit from the continued consolidation of US hospital channel and Goldman Sachs observes renewals will form an increasingly large component as contracts continue to mature. The broker retains a Neutral rating with a $57.90 target.

This report was published on June 13, 2023.

Target price is $57.90 Current Price is $68.81 Difference: minus $10.91 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.84, suggesting downside of -22.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 57.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 120.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.8, implying annual growth of 28.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 125.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 92.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.9, implying annual growth of 27.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 98.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RFG    RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((RFG)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital is encouraged by the relative resilience of Retail Food in deteriorating conditions. Network sales appear to have been "roughly flat" since April amid underlying weakness in foot traffic.

The broker assumes dividends resume in FY24, although this may be subject to growth opportunities available at the time. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $0.095 from $0.11.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.045
If RFG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLG    TALGA GROUP LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.33

Petra Capital rates ((TLG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital initiates coverage on Talga Group with a Buy rating and $2.70 target. The company is central to the future supply of anode material to the European EV industry. It will be the first domestic graphite supplier from the Vittangi project in northern Sweden from FY25.

With a unique product, low emissions credentials and growth, the broker considers the stock a re-rating prospect as project funding is finalised and the strategic nature of the business is better understood.

This report was published on June 16, 2023.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $1.37
If TLG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $116.72

Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

Xero has signalled a price rise is planned for Australasian subscribers from September 13, 2023. Goldman Sachs notes the changes are similar to those made in 2022 and in 2021.

Although price rises in the company's more mature markets are not entirely unexpected the broker was surprised by the quantum, particularly the 50% increase in the starter plan. This suggests upside risks to FY24 forecasts for 3% ARPU growth.

Further details around UK pricing save are awaited. Buy rating and $130 target maintained.

This report was published on June 15, 2023.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $116.72 Difference: $13.28
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $107.45, suggesting downside of -8.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 87.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 132.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 139.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 129.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.5, implying annual growth of 64.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 84.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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