Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 02, 2023

This story features LIFE360 INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

360   AKE   AND   CBA   CIA   CMM (2)   CSL   FCL (2)   IFL   KAR   LRK   LTR   MDR   NAB   NUC   PBH   PPT   RRL   SDR (2)   SFR   WZR  

360    LIFE360 INC

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $7.64

Goldman Sachs rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises its target price by 10% to $9.20 from $8.35 a share, heading into the June-quarter results, the broker' proprietary analysis suggesting strong net adds in subscriptions.

The broker says this should give the company strong momentum heading into its seasonally strongest quarters and reminds investors of the company's strong earnings and valuation upside.

The broker expects net subscriptions will rise sharply and spies a potential re-rate.

Buy rating retained, the broker considering the company to be strongly undervalued. 

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.64 Difference: $1.56
If 360 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1709.17.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.32.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $14.90

Jarden rates ((AKE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden found the quarterly update from Allkem positive and it appears the company's marketing strategy has paid off.

One of the key features of the result was the build in finished product inventory with the broker now estimating inventory stands at 4000t of technical grade carbonate.

If this can be cleared at similar pricing outcomes to the June quarter then it would be seen as a further vindication of the marketing strategy. Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $14.50 from $14.75.

This report was published on July 29, 2023.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $14.90 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If AKE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.93, suggesting upside of 20.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 65.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of 3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 78.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.9, implying annual growth of 67.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AND    ANSARADA GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.44

Moelis rates ((AND)) as Buy (1) –

Ansarada Group's June quarter revenue fell shy of Moelis' forecast while costs outpaced, the company logging its third consecutive positive operating cash flow quarter.

Highlights included a 6.5% rise in annual recurring revenue (ARR), 89% ARR subscriber retention, and 116% net dollar retention. 

The broker raises EPS forecasts across FY23 and FY24 to reflect the company's improved cash flow position (due to cost control)

Moelis expects M&A activity should be flat in FY24, with procurement, GRC and insolvencies likely to provide an uplift, along with overseas markets.

Buy rating retained Target price falls to $1.76 from $1.70.

This report was published on July 30, 2023.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.32
If AND meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1440.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $105.85

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Earlier this month, Jarden anticipated moderating margin pressure and manageable credit stress for Australian banks, along with the prospect of capital returns, and suggested investors shift to a Neutral stance on the sector.

Earlier than the broker expected, the major bank shares have since rallied by around 10%.

While Jarden retains its Neutral stance for the sector, it downgrades its rating for CommBank to Underweight from Neutral and retains its $97.50 target.

For the second half, the broker forecasts the bank's net interest margin (NIM) to fall by -8bps half-on-half to 2.02% (consensus 2.05%), although margin pressure should ease in the 4Q on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $97.50 Current Price is $105.85 Difference: minus $8.35 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.68, suggesting downside of -15.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 588.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 592.0, implying annual growth of -5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 431.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 435.00 cents and EPS of 557.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.0, implying annual growth of -3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 435.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $6.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Champion Iron's June quarter disappointed Goldman Sachs as the Canadian forest fires hit sales but the operating and financial results proved roughly in line.

Fe concentrate production outpaced and while earnings (EBITDA) fell -66% quarter on quarter, sharply lower unit costs (CA$30m) saved the day.

The company's board has postponed the final investment decision given the Quebec government is reviewing power supply to the region's projects (which the company expects will resolve favourably).

EPS forecasts rise 6% in FY24, 4% in FY25; and fall -3% in FY26, the broker expecting a decline in freight rates and rising sales.

Buy rating retained on valuation and production prospects, the broker perceiving the company to be hitting free cash flow and to be nearing a capital returns inflection point. Goldman Sachs also appreciates the company's growth optionality.

Target price rises to $7 from $6.70.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.07 Difference: $0.93
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.32 cents and EPS of 43.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.02.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.54 cents and EPS of 49.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.44

Goldman Sachs rates ((CMM)) as Neutral (3) –

Capricorn Metals' gold production and sales met Goldman Sachs's forecasts, setting a new production record, although the company guided to lower gold production in FY24 and likely higher costs. FY23 EPS forecasts rise, and FY24 EPS forecasts fall.

All in sustaining costs proved a beat on consensus but a miss for the broker.

Most pleasingly for the broker, the company has no gold delivery obligations until September 30, 2024, thereby offering strong exposure to any increase in the gold price, posits Goldman Sachs.

Capricorn Metals finished FY23 with $60m net cash. Cash and gold on hand was $110m.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $4.40 from $4.60.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If CMM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden believes a record of execution and cost management should ensure Capricorn Metals outperforms peers over the medium-to long- term.

While June quarter results are still pending, management reported Karlawinda achieved record annual gold production of 120,014oz for FY23, at the mid-point of guidance.

Details for additional metrics will be provided before the end of July.

The target rises to $4.82 from $4.80. Overweight.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $4.82 Current Price is $4.44 Difference: $0.38
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $269.32

Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons asserts, with the Argenx Vivgart/Hytrulo trial "bullet" dodged for now, the next "spot fire" to put out is in relation to the gross margin recovery at CSL Behring.

The broker suggests consensus became too expectant for FY24 and had to be "reined in" by the company's unprecedented and pre-emptive guidance.

The broker acknowledges further gains in margin are possible if cost per litre continues to moderate yet its margin forecasts fall -150 basis points short of full restoration.

Overweight rating retained. Target is reduced to $342.69 from $343.72.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $342.69 Current Price is $269.32 Difference: $73.37
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $328.17, suggesting upside of 21.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 348.37 cents and EPS of 794.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 799.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 358.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 416.85 cents and EPS of 939.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 952.1, implying annual growth of 19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL    FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

Fineos Corp's June-quarter result appears to have satisfied Goldman Sachs thanks to subscription payment timing.

Cash receipts of EUR73m were sharply higher than the December half's EUR63m, leading the broker to surmise the company is on track to meet the lower end of its FY23 revenue guidance range.

Cash expenditure continued to fall thanks to the company's efficiency drive and free cash flow was starting to hop for the first time since FY2020.

Upgrades from major clients added icing to the cake, and the company reports new deal momentum. Goldman Sachs believes Fineos is about to hit a cash inflection point.

Buy rating and $2.10 target price retained.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If FCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 26.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

Fineos Corp's June-quarter trading update reveals an improved cash balance after costs and headcount fell as the company's cost program kicked in

Meanwhile, client uptake continues apace and two major clients have contracted for upgrades, a continuing trend.

Moelis retains a Buy rating rating and $2.57 target price and EPS forecasts are sharply above those of its last entry in May.

This report was published on July 30, 2023.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.24
If FCL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 26.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 148.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 148.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL    INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $3.00

Jarden rates ((IFL)) as Overweight (2) –

Insignia Financial's 4Q business update showed flows and funds under management and administration (FUMA) were largely in line with Jarden's forecasts.

Management aims to achieve efficiency gains by simplifying and strengthening its Platform and Advice offerings following its MLC acquisition on May 21. Around -$175-190m per year of opex savings are expected by FY26.

Jarden raises its FY23-25 EPS forecasts and lifts its target to $3.85 from $3.65, and sees compelling upside for Insignia Financial shares, supporting its Overweight rating.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.85
If IFL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.90 cents and EPS of 28.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 415.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.40 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.24

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Overweight (2) –

Karoon Energy's production for the 4Q was in line with Jarden's estimate while sales were a 12% beat due to the sale of one additional smaller cargo (most are sized at 0.5 mmbbl).

The Overweight rating is retained on a rapidly rising cash balance from strong free cash flow generation, given most near-term capex is completed, with Jarden now expecting the focus to shift to future growth (organic or inorganic) opportunities.

Management is moving to December year-end reporting, so released guidance for the next 12 month period to 30 June 2024 for production, capex and other costs, which were largely in line with the analyst's forecasts.

The target falls to $2.40 from $2.45.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.16
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting upside of 27.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of 53.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $1.46

Moelis rates ((LRK)) as Hold (3) –

Lark Distilling Co's June-quarter sales fell shy of Moelis' forecasts due to a challenging environment, despite the company posting total FY23 organic net sales growth of 15% thanks to its Export and Travel Retail businesses.

The company finished the year with net cash, including $3.7m in government grants, of $7.2m; $15m extra in an undrawn debt facility; and 2.4m litres of whisky under maturation.

The broker cuts its FY24 and FY25 sales forecasts, spying challenges to organic growth.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $1.66 from $1.83.

This report was published on July 30, 2023.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.2
If LRK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.24.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.42.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.75

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden observes Liontown Resources is continuing to forge ahead with its Kathleen Valley hard rock lithium project amid no further engagement with Albemarle following the latter's $2.50 offer in mid-June.

The broker notes material movements doubled quarter on quarter in June and mid 2024 continues to be the target for first concentrate.

Jarden retains a $2.50 target in line with the offer from Albemarle along with a Neutral rating.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 343.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.23

Moelis rates ((MDR)) as Buy (1) –

MedAdvisor's FY23 revenue outpaced guidance by 2%, gross profit rising 81.4% and gross profit margins rising to 60.6% from 48.4% the previous year.

But Moelis observes a sharp June-quarter revenue decline, due to delays in US contract commencement and unfavourable foreign exchange movements.

No specific guidance was offered but management advised of its very strong and diversified US pipeline and expects profitable growth in FY24. 

Buy rating retained. FY23 EPS forecasts improve a touch to reflect the beat. Target price eases 1c to 40c  share.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.17
If MDR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 230.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $28.58

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Earlier this month, Jarden anticipated moderating margin pressure and manageable credit stress for Australian banks, along with the prospect of capital returns, and suggested investors shift to a Neutral stance on the sector.

Earlier than the broker expected, the major bank shares have since rallied by around 10%.

While Jarden retains its Neutral stance for the sector, it downgrades its rating for National Australia Bank, its preferred exposure to the sector, to Overweight from Buy on valuation, and retains its $29 target price.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.58 Difference: $0.42
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.30, suggesting downside of -4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 167.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.9, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 167.00 cents and EPS of 215.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 220.9, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUC    NUCHEV PTY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $0.23

Wilsons rates ((NUC)) as Market Weight (3) –

Nuchev has confirmed a robust quarter of sales although Wilsons notes growth was negligible.

The company has recently transitioned to a new distribution partner, H&S International, one of Australia's largest local and export wholesalers for infant formula, vitamin C and personal care product.

The company has also raised $6.5m in new equity. This should improve its prospects for accelerating sales growth, the broker observes.

Still the pathway to positive earnings and cash flow remains protracted and Wilsons retains a Market Weight rating with a $0.24 target, raised from $0.19.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.01
If NUC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.11.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.13.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.70

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden believes the decision by PointsBet Holdings to "cut and run" from the US, while difficult, has arguably saved the business from bleeding financially. The US purchase by Fanatics remains on track with first proceeds expected as early as September.

The broker expects this should give rise to a $1/share capital return. While there is now a smaller market presence the broker still believes the business is materially undervalued and suspects, if the market does not re-rate the stock, the corporate market will.

Buy rating reiterated along with a $1.79 target.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $1.79 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.09
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 85.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.98.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 64.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.64.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $25.15

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

While net flows for Perpetual in the June quarter were disappointing, Jarden notes this was affected by both the macro environment and the merger.

A $1.5bn mandate win from Barrow Hanley and the launch of a second CLO should offset some of the pressure in the first half of FY24, the broker adds.

Meanwhile a "compelling" two-year EPS growth rate of 10% is well ahead of the peer average. The stock remains the broker's preferred fund manager pick and an Overweight rating is reiterated. Target is raised to $31.05 from $30.50.

This report was published on July 27, 2023.

Target price is $31.05 Current Price is $25.15 Difference: $5.9
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.17, suggesting upside of 20.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 164.70 cents and EPS of 203.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.6, implying annual growth of 20.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 201.10 cents and EPS of 233.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.0, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 180.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL    REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((RRL)) as Buy (1) –

Regis Resources' June-quarter result outpaced consensus and Goldman Sachs forecasts, but all in sustaining costs sharply disappointed. FY24 guidance was in line but below previous consensus forecasts.

The broker attributed part of the cost blowout to a reassessment of life of mine expenses to match cost inflation; while growth expenditure is also higher.

Management guided to an improvement in cash flow generation as capex is reined in and low-price hedges finish, the benefits of which should land in FY25, expects the broker.

The company finished FY23 with cash and bullion of $243m, ahead of forecasts thanks to a tax refund. An update on debt refinancing is expected in the not too distant future.

Buy rating retained, the broker considering Regis Resources good value relative to peers. FY23 and FY24 EPS forecasts fall sharply due to stock drawdowns. Target price falls -13% to $2. 

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.3
If RRL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 22.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 94.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of 75.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 56.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of 106.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $4.26

Jarden rates ((SDR)) as Buy (1) –

SiteMinder provided a trading update for the June quarter which revealed stronger revenue, free cash flow improvements and an indication that the business will be positive in terms of cash flow sooner than Jarden had expected.

The broker assumes improved average revenue per unit from price rises for existing customers as well as new customers and does not yet factori in any new products or a higher attach rate. Further product details are awaited at the investor briefing in October.

Buy rating. Target is raised to $4.70 from $4.40.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.44
If SDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 56.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((SDR)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons downgrades SiteMinder to Market Weight from Overweight on valuation grounds.

The fourth quarter results showed the highest annual growth rate since listing and a number of tailwinds for the medium term means the broker is encouraged by the company's longer term strategy and opportunity.

Yet the shares have surged 60% since recent lows in June. Hence, valuation upside at spot levels is limited and any meaningful retracement should be regarded as an attractive entry point. Target is raised to $4.61 from $4.47.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $4.61 Current Price is $4.26 Difference: $0.35
If SDR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 72.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $6.71

Jarden rates ((SFR)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Jarden moves to Overweight from Buy for Sandfire Resources based on valuation although the stock remains a top preference.

The company produced a "commendably strong" June quarter report but FY24 production guidance was even better, at what the broker previously would have believed was a "stretch target". Therefore, conviction in the investment thesis is unchanged.

Initial production guidance for FY24 of 97,000t copper and 88,000t zinc exceeded the broker's prior forecasts. Target is reduced to $6.53 from $6.65.

This report was published on July 28, 2023.

Target price is $6.53 Current Price is $6.71 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -20.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.98 cents and EPS of 7.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WZR    WISR LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.03

Wilsons rates ((WZR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wisr has updated on the June quarter with Wilsons noting headline loan book, originations and cash earnings were all below forecasts. This was due to a deliberate pause in originations in order to deal with swap volatility and maintain cash earnings.

As a result, the strategy makes it more difficult for the broker to forecast the point in the cycle when the company will accelerate originations, although it should preserve cash in profitability for the short term. Overweight retained. Target edges down to $0.19 from $0.21.

This report was published on July 31, 2023.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.16
If WZR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 533% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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