Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 16, 2023

This story features ARENA REIT, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ARF   AUB   AVH   AZJ   BBN   BEN   BPT (2)   CAR   CIP   CQE (2)   FSF   GPT   IMR   JBH   NCK (2)   NUF   NWS   QBE   REA   SKC   TLX  

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.68

Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) –

FY23 EPS and DPS for Arena REIT were 17.1cpu and 16.8cpu respectively, while FY24 dividend guidance is for 17.4cpu. Like-for-like rents grew by 6.8% year-on-year, with around 90% of the rent roll benefiting from exposure to CPI for the period, explains Moelis.

The broker notes income growth in FY23 compensated for an 11bps increase in the cap rate and the net tangible assets metric remained unchanged at $3.42.

The analyst expects ongoing benefits in FY24 from the lagged impact of the relatively high inflation prints in FY23. 

The Hold rating is retained on valuation and $3.76 target is unchanged.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $3.76 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.08
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.56.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $28.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((AUB)) as Buy (1) –

AUB Group has upgraded FY23 profit guidance to $129m. This is 5.7% above the mid point of the prior range, Goldman Sachs notes, with the reasons cited as strong trading over May-June, continued execution of strategic growth initiatives and Tysers performing ahead of expectations.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $32.00 from $30.68.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $28.89 Difference: $3.11
If AUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.82, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 129.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.1, implying annual growth of 6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 90.00 cents and EPS of 152.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.1, implying annual growth of 26.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $5.45

Wilsons rates ((AVH)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Wilsons observes the risk associated with Avita Medical has largely been removed, lauding new management's continuing disclosure of quarterly and full year guidance.

The first half growth of 43% demonstrates the penetration of Recell, and with the binary outcomes based on soft tissue and vitiligo approvals now removed the broker considers the next 12 months should offer little downside.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target is lifted to $6.34 from $4.28.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $6.34 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.89
If AVH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 22.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 86.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -31.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.62

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes a number of issues weighed on the FY23 results for Aurizon Holdings and the outlook is now contingent on a return to a more normal operating environment in FY24.

The broker downgrades estimates for EPS in FY24 by -5.6% given the step up in interest expense alongside further increases in depreciation costs

 Following changes to offshore peer multiples and modest long-term earnings revisions the broker retains a Neutral rating and $3.70 target.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.08
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.60 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 66.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.80 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN    BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.34

Wilsons rates ((BBN)) as Overweight (1) –

While the FY23 result was largely pre-released the trading update from Baby Bunting reveals sales in July/August are ahead of Wilsons' estimates and achieved despite cycling of strong comparables.

The broker notes comparable periods will become less demanding for the remainder of FY24, providing confidence to marginally upgrade estimates. Overweight maintained. Target is raised to $2.40 from $2.10.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.06
If BBN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.0, implying annual growth of 76.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $9.21

Jarden rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's cash profit in FY23 was marginally ahead of Jarden's estimates. Credit quality is seen weakening, albeit resilient, while capital is solid and supports future dividends.

 Overall, the broker suspects there will be no earnings growth in FY24 as margins erode, reflecting a material re-pricing of term deposits and an ongoing adverse shift to higher yielding deposits.

Yet, with an attractive 7% yield the broker retains a Neutral rating, raising the target to $9.20 from $9.15.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $9.21 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.32, suggesting upside of 2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of -5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 79.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of 1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.59

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Beach Energy's production guidance of 18-21mmboe for FY24 was disappointing, although Jarden believes conservative assumptions have been built in around Otway, Western Flank and Perth Basin to provide more upside than downside risk to the forecast range.

Meanwhile, underlying net profit in FY23 beat estimates. The broker was not surprised the company is in arbitration with Origin Energy ((ORG)) on the Otway gas contract and does not expect any resolution until late FY24.

Jarden retains an Overweight rating and reduces the target to $1.65 from $1.70.

This report was published on August 15, 2023.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.06
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 41.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (1) –

Beach Energy's FY23 results were in line with expectations. Yet Wilsons is disappointed with FY24 guidance, noting the delayed volumes associated with the Waitsia stage 2 development, Otway gas and lower production forecasts at the Western Flank.

Capital expenditure for FY24 of -$850m-$1bn is also materially higher than the broker anticipated. Overweight rating and $2.01 target are under review.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $2.01 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.42
If BPT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 41.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $27.10

Jarden rates ((CAR)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

The FY23 result from Carsales was slightly below Jarden's estimates at the EBITDA level. The broker now has more conviction the company can continue to withstand the macro environment, offsetting any negatives with market share gains, pricing and new products.

Pricing is proving to be stickier than Jarden expected and there is an opportunity to drive strong yields across the dealer, private and media networks even as new and used car prices normalise.

While being cautious as market expectations are high, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underweight. Target is lifted to $25.10 from $20.90.

This report was published on August 15, 2023.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $27.10 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.46, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 75.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.2, implying annual growth of -54.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 90.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.9, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.05

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes Centuria Industrial REIT is in a strong position, able to drive above-average comparable net operating income as it benefits from development completions.

The strong growth will likely be offset in the short term by costs but the broker still envisages attractive momentum when interest rates stabilise and growth opportunities return. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.35 from $3.40.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.3
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $2.67

Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden welcomes the re-basing of the dividend to a more sustainable level, particularly as underlying earnings growth could be sluggish until interest rates ease back or growth opportunities are better versus the cost of capital.

The broker believes the underperformance in Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT is overdone, given the attractive asset class. The broker rolls forward its modelling and reduces the target to $3.15 from $3.35. Overweight maintained.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.48
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.48.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CQE)) as Buy (1) –

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT delivered FY23 earnings of 16.1c  per unit and a distribution of 17.2c, implying a 107% pay-out ratio. Look-through gearing increased to 32.8% and Moelis lowers near-term earnings estimates, factoring in higher interest costs.

The broker observes transaction yields have remained relatively resilient, despite the rising funding costs. The share price has fallen -20% over the past six months and the broker considers the stock attractively valued, particularly in the context of an under-rented portfolio.

Buy rating and $3.29 target maintained.

This report was published on August 13, 2023.

Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.62
If CQE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.71.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSF    FONTERRA SHAREHOLDERS FUND

Dairy – Overnight Price: $3.62

Jarden rates ((FSF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden upgrades forecasts to allow for a strong finish to FY23 and takes a more positive view on FY24 for Fonterra Shareholders Fund, given stream returns remain supportive.

The dividend is upgraded to NZ$0.50 with the company looking to pay towards the top of the range against a subdued milk price.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price is reduced to NZ$3.42 from NZ$3.84.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Current Price is $3.62. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 45.92 cents and EPS of 72.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.99.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.08 cents and EPS of 43.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.32.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.20

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Underweight (4) –

In the wake of the first half result, Jarden believes GPT Group is well-positioned for solid growth in retail despite the slowdown in consumer spending. Moreover, ongoing development activity and re-leasing spreads in logistics should ensure strong growth.

2023 should also mean a step change in fund management income after the company won two mandates and despite the fact the average fee percentages have fallen.

The Underweight rating is maintained as the broker believes investors can play the retail, logistics and fund management themes better elsewhere. Target is steady at $4.40.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.2
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.02, suggesting upside of 20.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 27.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.20 cents and EPS of 30.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMR    IMRICOR MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.66

Moelis rates ((IMR)) as Buy (1) –

Weaker 2Q procedure volumes meant consumable sales for Imricor Medical Systems declined to US$73,000 from US$114,00 in the 1Q, and Moelis doesn't expect a meaningful uplift in volumes until the ventricular tachycardia (VT) trial is complete.

The company should have sufficient cash for the next 12-18 months, believes the analyst, after the receipt of a 30m equity funding facility with GEM Global and completion of a US$1m private placement in July.

Additionally, management announced a commitment letter from the North Dakota Development Fund for a US$1m term loan. 

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target falls to 87c from 89c.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.21
If IMR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.46.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 26.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.48.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $47.79

Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

JB Hi-Fi's FY23 results were ahead of Jarden's estimates albeit still weak as covid benefits were cycled. The issue for the broker is whether trends will deteriorate further through FY24.

Management appears confident regarding its relative position, with JB Hi-Fi sales better than expected in July although The Good Guys sales were weaker.

Jarden believes margin is a key risk to FY24 with costs likely to be up more than 6%. Underweight maintained. Target edges down to $41.00 from $41.40.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $47.79 Difference: minus $6.79 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.82, suggesting downside of -5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 221.00 cents and EPS of 337.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 331.6, implying annual growth of -30.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 219.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 222.00 cents and EPS of 339.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 341.9, implying annual growth of 3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK    NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $12.40

Jarden rates ((NCK)) as Underweight (4) –

Nick Scali's FY23 results were ahead of expectations yet Jarden remains cautious about the category and retains an Underweight rating following a change of lead analyst.

Sales momentum was better than expected in June although this has moderated in July, the broker notes. FY24 net profit forecasts are lifted by 17% driven by gross margin momentum and following a materially stronger second half.

While Jarden expects Nick Scali can outperform, the retailer is not immune from weaker demand in FY24 and industry discounting. Target is raised to $9.70 from $8.10.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $12.40 Difference: minus $2.7 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.30 cents and EPS of 90.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 59.20 cents and EPS of 89.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NCK)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

The FY23 result from Nick Scali was ahead of expectations. Wilsons found the quality "good" with cash flow up 12.7% and inventory down -22.6%.

Going forward, the broker acknowledges visibility is increasingly difficult and acquisition synergies appear close to being realised.

While considering management and the company constructively, Wilsons believes the stock is fully valued and downgrades to Market Weight from Overweight, reducing the target to $12.20 from $13.30.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $12.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.60 cents and EPS of 87.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.17.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.40 cents and EPS of 87.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.22.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $5.13

Moelis rates ((NUF)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Moelis initiates coverage on Nufarm with a Hold rating and $5.47 target. The broker is cautious about the short-term in terms of crop protection earnings as recent downgrades from peers indicate lower industry volumes over the June quarter.

This is likely to impact the company's margins. The current valuation appears fair and over the medium-term Moelis is positive about the outlook with several growth drivers across crop protection and seed technologies.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.34
If NUF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.07, suggesting upside of 38.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.4, implying annual growth of 53.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $33.89

Goldman Sachs rates ((NWS)) as Buy (1) –

Dow Jones stood out in the News Corp fourth quarter results with subscribers growing 7%. Goldman Sachs notes the B2B professional service segment is on track to deliver more than 50% of Dow Jones earnings in FY24.

The main weakness in the result was book publishing while Move revenue was below estimates. The broker expects a step up investment to address the challenges, impacting near-term profitability.

Goldman Sachs revises FY24-26 EBITDA estimates down by -3% to reflect these trends. Buy rating retained. Target edges up to $35.10 from $34.90.

This report was published on August 12, 2023.

Target price is $35.10 Current Price is $33.89 Difference: $1.21
If NWS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.77, suggesting downside of -1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.93 cents and EPS of 96.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 123.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.93 cents and EPS of 120.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.3, implying annual growth of 38.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $15.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance first half results were in line with Goldman Sachs estimates at the combined operating ratio and margin lines.

The broker notes top-line growth is very strong, driven by both rates and volumes, while COR guidance of 94.5% and gross written premium growth of 10% for 2023 have been maintained.

Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $18.09 from $17.98.

This report was published on August 11, 2023.

Target price is $18.09 Current Price is $15.38 Difference: $2.71
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.11, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 90.18 cents and EPS of 139.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 128.84 cents and EPS of 180.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.1, implying annual growth of 32.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $158.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

REA Group's FY23 results were slightly better than expected. Residential stood out for Goldman Sachs with the segment well-placed given improving listings trends and a strong yield outlook.

Commercial and developer segments are considered more challenging. Australian operating expenditure growth of 12.6% is forecast, at the top of the company's guidance. Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating with the target edging down -1% to $175.

This report was published on August 12, 2023.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $158.85 Difference: $16.15
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $160.32, suggesting downside of -0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 187.00 cents and EPS of 340.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 352.9, implying annual growth of 30.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 418.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 400.0, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 227.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKC    SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $2.14

Jarden rates ((SKC)) as Buy (1) –

SkyCity Entertainment has updated ahead of its results on August 23, now booking a provision of -NZ$45m to cover the potential AUSTRAC civil penalty and associated legal costs. There is no change to FY23 normalised EBITDA of NZ$300-310m.

Jarden believes the AUSTRAC provision and associated legal costs have been priced into the stock and investors are likely relieved it was not much larger.

Still, the broker also points out the Adelaide casino licence will be impaired by -$45.6m, the size of which is a key item of additional news and detrimental to achieving earnings upside from the asset. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to NZ$3.10 from NZ$3.20.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Current Price is $2.14. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.02 cents and EPS of 16.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.86 cents and EPS of 16.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.94.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $10.18

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Telix Pharmaceuticals shares have been persistently weak, Wilsons observes, following its second quarter update that was essentially about the pricing of Illuccix.

The broker notes two recent movements in US policy that are encouraging pricing stability and preserving patient access to radiopharmaceutical diagnostics.

As a result, Wilsons suspects sentiment is "over correcting" given expectations for innovation in the Illuccix franchise. Overweight rating and $13.13 target maintained.

This report was published on August 14, 2023.

Target price is $13.13 Current Price is $10.18 Difference: $2.95
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 86.27.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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