Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 16, 2024

Daily Market Reports | Feb 16 2024

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ACE   ANZ (2)   AZJ (2)   BLD (2)   BPT (3)   BRG (3)   CAR (2)   CLW   CNB   COH   CPU   CSL   CSR   GUD   ILU   JAN   JBH (2)   LYC   MGR   MMS   NDO   OCC   REA   RIC (2)   RKN   RWC   SEK   SIQ   SKC   STX (2)   SYA   TCL   TPW   VSL  

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas - Overnight Price: $0.32

Petra Capital rates ((STX)) as Hold (3) -

Petra Capital considers the failure of gas to flow at Strike Energy's SE-3 well in the Perth basin and points to possible water contact due to the depth of the field.

The analyst is also not upbeat on the SE-2 well and flow performance which is to be tested in 5-days, due to poor initial data.

The target price is lowered to 31cents from 42 cents and a Hold rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If STX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 43.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 183.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) -

Wilsons is reconsidering the rating and target for Strike Energy, post the operational issues and water formation impact at SE-3, resulting in unsuccessful flowing.

The analyst believes over-drilling has caused the issues for the flow test and highlights the company will move to SE-2 and start a test flow over the next 5-days.

The Overweight rating and 53 cent target price are under review.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.215
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 43.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 183.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements - Overnight Price: $0.05

Petra Capital rates ((SYA)) as Buy (1) -

Petra Capital assesses Sayona Mining for the ongoing weakness in lithium prices, which the analyst perceives as "bottom of the cycle levels".

Sayona Mining will not be going ahead with Moblan or further capital intensive projects at current spodumene price levels.

Nevertheless, the analyst views the company as offering the lowest value for ASX listed producers and cheaper than a lot of the explorers and developers.

Buy rating and 15 cent price target remain unchanged.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.099
If SYA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 194% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities - Overnight Price: $12.94

Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Underweight (4) -

Transurban Group's December-half revenue missed consensus' and Jarden's forecasts due to a weaker than expected traffic recovery in Australia, but earnings were in line thanks to a stronger operational performance.

Weather, port disruption and construction were the main culprits behind the traffic miss.

Dividend guidance was retained, and the broker observes the company's 4.7% yield still outpaces the Australian 10-year bond yield, albeit the spread has narrowed from its historical five-year average.

Underweight rating retained. Target price falls to $12.70 from $12.90 to reflect a small increase in debt and gearing.

This report was published on February 8, 2024.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $12.94 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.96, suggesting upside of 7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of 1034.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.60 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 28.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation - Overnight Price: $12.05

Petra Capital rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) -

Temple & Webster's 1H24 results revealed much better than expected revenue growth of 23% year-on-year, noted Petra Capital.

The company also boosted market share, as represented by a 16% lift in active customers and a 35% rise in first time customers.

Management reconfirmed the $1billion revenue guidance by FY26-FY28 and net cash rose to $114m from $103m at the end of FY23.

Petra Capital raises the EPS forecasts by 3.8%,5.9% and 4% for FY24. FY25 and FY26, respectively.

The broker's Buy rating is maintained and the target price lifted to $12.00 from $9.20.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting downside of -1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 301.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of -32.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 262.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 223.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 76.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 148.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VSL    VULCAN STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap - Overnight Price: $7.31

Jarden rates ((VSL)) as Neutral (3) -

In what Jarden terms a "relief update", in-line 1H results by Vulcan Steel indicated sector conditions seem to have stopped deteriorating.

Management provided no FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance, but is looking for a lift from current trough levels from Q4 of FY24 or Q1 of FY25 as water infrastructure projects, in particular, return. Engineering projects have also been repriced,

The company noted the 2H has begun well, with January and early-February improving on Q2 of FY24, although trading was softer than the first four months of H1 FY24.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to NZ$7.70 from NZ$7.80.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Current Price is $7.31. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.08 cents and EPS of 37.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.73.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.56 cents and EPS of 54.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.52.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.