Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 26, 2024

This story features ARB CORPORATION LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARB

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ARB   BBN   BEN   BLD   BSL   BVS   CNI   COH   EVS   GDI   GPT   GQG   HUB   IAG   IDX   IGO   IMD   ORA   QBE   QIP   RWC   WBC  

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $40.09

Wilsons rates ((ARB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons assessed ARB Corp as delivering a 1H24 earnings beat, driven by a strong improvement in the gross margin, better domestic aftermarket sales and robust OEM sales.

The broker envisages ongoing momentum in earnings from the main Australian aftermarket market, alongside an improved US distribution platform.

Management did not offer any guidance, and after adjusting for the results, Wilsons tweaks EPS forecasts by -1% and 5% for FY24 and FY25, respectively.

An Overweight rating is maintained and the target raised to $45.69 from $35.30.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $45.69 Current Price is $40.09 Difference: $5.6
If ARB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.50, suggesting downside of -6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 128.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.4, implying annual growth of 17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 140.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.3, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN    BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.59

Wilsons rates ((BBN)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights Baby Bunting pre-released 1H24 results, but disappointingly February conditions have further weakened.

Management is seeking improved inventory levels in the 2H24 with 14% growth in online sales achieved in the 1H24.

The CEO reiterated strategic changes to drive growth in the next 6-months, but no guidance was offered.

Wilsons adjusts earnings by -14.5% and -6.7% for FY24 and FY25.

An Overweight rating is retained and the target reduced -4.8% to $2.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.405
If BBN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.84, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 15.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 43.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $9.53

Jarden rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

Following what it called a tough half for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, Jarden has cut its FY25 and FY26 earnings per share expectations for the bank by -3%. 

According to the broker, headline profit was better than expected but driven largely by lower quality wins, and margins disappointed. Despite a rising exit net interest margin, the broker does warn of potential for core net interest margins to dip lower. 

The broker was encouraged by ongoing investment, and by the bank continuing to enhance its digital offering. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.40 from $9.50.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $9.53 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting downside of -3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 82.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.0, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 77.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.8, implying annual growth of -3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLD    BORAL LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.91

Jarden rates ((BLD)) as Overweight (2) –

Major shareholder Seven Group ((SVW)) has made a bid for the remaining 28.4% of Boral at $6.05 cents per share, but with sweetener incentives up to $6.25 per share on offer.

Jarden believes the offer comes not only at a time of strength for Seven Group, but also at a time of increased confidence in Boral's outlook. A shift to a recurring revenue stream, similar to that of Brickworks-Goodman, is strategic and provides tremendous value, says Jarden.

The Neutral rating and target price of $5.80 are retained.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.57, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 53.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $23.45

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

A better than expected first half from BlueScope Steel, according to Jarden, with underlying earnings of $718m beating the top end of earlier guidance ar $670m. 

Jarden explains strong US operations, with better than expected volumes, was the main driver of the result, but all divisions, excluding New Zealand, exceeded expectations operationally.

There is potential for the company to deploy -US$1.2bn in capital expenditure into its US operations in a bid to replicate success found in the Australia Zincalume-Colour Bond strategy.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $24.60 from $26.40.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $23.45 Difference: $1.15
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.86, suggesting downside of -6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 207.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.7, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 204.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.24

Wilsons rates ((BVS)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

New leadership at Bravura Solutions has delivered a more upbeat result for the 1H24 according to Wilsons.

Revenue growth beat the broker's forecast by 3% with a 7% rise. Wealth Management and Funds Administration achieved 8% and 5% revenue growth respectively.

Some $40m of cost out savings in FY24 are expected, as the business is "re-set", including a -20% decline in the employee count.

Management reconfirmed FY24 revenue guidance of circa $249m, in line with FY23 and Wilsons increases EPS forecasts for FY24 and FY25.

The stock is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight with an accompanying lift in the target price to $1.51 from $0.69.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.27
If BVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 310.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.51.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.56

Moelis rates ((CNI)) as Buy (1) –

A solid result in choppy markets from Centuria Capital in the first half, says Moelis, with the company delivering operating earnings per share of 6.1 cents and a 5.0 cents per share dividend. The company reaffirmed full year guidance for earnings of 11.5-12.0 cents per share.

The broker found assets under management growth to have been muted over the half, with funds under management lifting marginally to $2.1bn, with credit a main driver.

Moelis believes Centuria Capital has proved a robust performer comparative to the ASX200 AREITS, since REITs bottomed out around three months ago.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.94 are retained.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.94 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.375
If CNI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of -11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH    COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $343.73

Jarden rates ((COH)) as Neutral (3) –

Having pre-released first half revenue and net profit earlier in February, the big surprise of Cochlear's more detailed update was continuing implant market share gains despite an expectation of stabilisation, says Jarden.

Implant revenue grew 26% in the half, comprised of 15% volume growth in developed markets and 10% volume growth in emerging markets.

Jarden explains implant market share gains are the 'best type of growth' for the company, as it locks consumers into a life cycle of upgrades. The broker anticipates earnings per share growth of 31.8%, 21.2% and 11.6% through to FY26.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $244.35 from $237.17.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $237.17 Current Price is $343.73 Difference: minus $106.56 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $258.08, suggesting downside of -24.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 396.80 cents and EPS of 610.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 603.0, implying annual growth of 31.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 417.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 57.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 512.30 cents and EPS of 739.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 677.1, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 470.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVS    ENVIROSUITE LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.06

Wilsons rates ((EVS)) as Overweight (1) –

EnviroSuite reported a -4% miss on total  revenue for the 1H24, notes Wilsons and a -6.1% miss on gross profit, despite a 9% increase.

After an improvement in gross margin to 51.2% versus 50.2% a year earlier, management reconfirmed their 60% gross margin goal.

The broker attributes the miss on results to non-core churn in the aviation and industrial segments as well as foreign exchange impacts.

The target price is lowered -18% to 11c and an Overweight rating is retained.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.05
If EVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDI    GDI PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $0.61

Moelis rates ((GDI)) as Buy (1) –

GDI Property has reported funds from operations of $13.1m in the first half, or 2.45 cents per unit. The company issued a 2.5 cents per unit payment, which Moelis notes is consistent with a full year distribution guidance of 5 cents per share. 

The broker expects solid leasing growth at Westralia Square 1 and 2 (WS1 and WS2) to drive meaningful earnings growth through FY24. For the former, WAPOL entered a new 11-year lease for level 6, and extended leases for levels 1-5 and 7-9, to bring all to a March 2034 expiry.

WS1 now holds a 8.2 year weighted average lease expiry, and WS2 an 8.6 year weighted average lease expiry. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.00 from $1.09.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.39
If GDI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.38.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.33

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Underweight (4) –

Following GPT Group's full year result, Jarden feels the company's problems can be summarised as strength in retail, logistics and fund management that is not enough to offset significant cashflow weakness from the office segment.

It presents an interesting challenge for an incoming CEO, says the broker, but Jarden does feel GPT Group is closer to its funds from operations trough than other passive REITs on the market. 

The broker also points out, given ongoing pressure on office management fundamentals, the $100m in tenant incentives could prove more structural than initially reflected.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.70 from $4.65.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $0.37
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 13.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.40 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.13

Goldman Sachs rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs reinstates coverage of GQG Partners with a Buy rating and a $2.40 target price.

The broker highlights a 1H24 beat on net profit after tax against both consensus and its own forecast, due to higher performance and base fees, alongside a lower tax rate.

An 85% to 95% dividend payout ratio is anticipated and January realised FUM net inflows of $1.9bn, with net inflows as at February 14, of $2.9bn year-to-date.

Management is seeking to re-open Emerging Markets, with organic growth expected along the existing product offering.

Buy rating with a $2.40 target price.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.27
If GQG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 13.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.22 cents and EPS of 18.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.73 cents and EPS of 21.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $37.77

Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Hub24 achieved platform revenue growth of 17% in the 1H24 on the previous period, slightly higher than Wilsons' forecast.

EBITDA and net profits were also stronger than expected. However, free cash flow came in weaker than forecast as a result of higher R&D capitalisation and investment spending.

Management retained FY25 FUA at $92bn to $100bn with net inflows of between $10bn and $12bn per annum.

Some minor earnings adjusts are made and the stock is downgraded to Market Weight on valuation grounds.

The target price is revised to $42.63.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $42.63 Current Price is $37.77 Difference: $4.86
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.54, suggesting upside of 7.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 86.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.6, implying annual growth of 77.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 115.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.3, implying annual growth of 29.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.09

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

Insurance Australia Group offered a mixed 1H24 result, missing on Goldman Sachs's forecasts for insurance profits and cash earnings, but in line for underlying margins, notes the broker. 

Management retained FY24 guidance and a $200m additional buyback was announced, with a 10 cents dividend.

The company achieved robust retention rates of 90% in the domestic home and motor insurance market. New Zealand came in the high 90's across the same categories.

A Neutral rating is retained. Target price unchanged at $6.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of -5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.8, implying annual growth of 20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $2.27

Wilsons rates ((IDX)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons adopts a tough approach to Integral Diagnostics' 1H24 results, explaining the share price response had more to do with the narrative around a private equity acquisition than the released numbers (a beat on the November EBITDA downgrade).

The broker is less than upbeat about the future, saying "mind the gap for FY25-26e consensus NPAT" and highlighting its own forecasts are -10-11% lower than consensus.

Wilsons flags Integral Diagnostics as a potential value trap with multiple growth headwinds.

A Market Weighting is maintained and the target raised 8% to $2.12.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.12 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IDX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 2.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of -26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of 39.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $7.23

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

IGO has issued an updated reserve and resource statement for the Greenbushes asset, with a 25% increase bringing total in situ spodumene resources to 477m tonnes after mining depletion over the last twelve months. Reserves were lifted 3% to 179m tonnes.

As per Jarden, the reserves support more than 23 years of open-pit operations, but the broker notes deeper extensional and exploration drilling continues to show wide, lithia rich intercepts beyond the current design underpinning mine life. 

The broker describes Greenbushes as the best asset globally.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.65 from $9.61.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: $2.42
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of -11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 67.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of -47.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.91

Jarden rates ((IMD)) as Overweight (2) –

Imdex's first half result suggested underlying momentum improvement, says Jarden, with Devico performing better than expected. The company reported underlying earnings of $71m, and stronger at the core earnings line, a 10% beat to market expectations. 

From an earnings perspective, the company is guiding to more of the same over the second half, but the broker points out signals of improving momentum in operational trends and benefits from better cost controls could benefit earnings growth.

The Overweight rating is retained and target price increases to $2.10 from $2.00.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.09
If IMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.60 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 40.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.65

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden considers Orora's first half a solid operating result, with underlying earnings of $184m broadly in line with market expectations. The broker, however, feels a net interest surprise has detracted from the result. 

Net interest margin guidance has stepped up considerably, now expected to be $71m per half into FY25, inviting questions from the market according to Jarden, and particularly around the Saverglass acquisition. 

The broker chooses to remain positive on Saverglass at this point, but does acknowledge this may prove too optimistic.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.20 from $3.30.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.55
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 14.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of -13.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.5, implying annual growth of 15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $16.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Post QBE Insurance's  FY23 earnings result, Goldman Sachs retains an upbeat view of the company.

The broker is expecting pricing will remain robust into FY24 and considers management's guidance as conservative given the earnings trend ex catastrophe.

A 16% return on equity was achieved in FY23 due to strong capital generation.

Some minor adjustments to EPS forecasts are made.

With a non demanding  PER valuation, circa 9.0x for FY24, a Buy rating is retained.

Price target is lifted to $18.65 from $18.52.

This report was published on February 19, 2024.

Target price is $18.65 Current Price is $16.85 Difference: $1.8
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.81, suggesting upside of 5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 94.11 cents and EPS of 185.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 92.59 cents and EPS of 183.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.3, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QIP    QANTM INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $1.15

Petra Capital rates ((QIP)) as Buy (1) –

Qantm Intellectual Property's pre-guided December-half result appears to have pleased Petra Capital, revenue and earnings all rising strongly on the previous corresponding period, thanks to "respectable" performances across divisions.

The broker observes strong operating cash generation and low capital expenditure drove an increase in the company's dividend to 4.9c from 2.8c the previous year (an 80% payout ratio). The broker forecasts an FY24 dividend yield of 6.3% and FY25 yield of 7.2%.

Net debt fell -33.4% year on year. Buy rating retained. Target price is $1.76 (it was $1.57 in December). 

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.61
If QIP meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.98.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.27

Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

A better than expected first half result from Reliance Worldwide, with adjusted earnings a 3% beat to market forecasts.

Guidance was broadly retained, but Jarden points out risk balance has shifted from downside in European operations to upside in US operations. Some risk remains in Europe, but the broker found the manufacturing shift and improved cash flows encouraging.

The company also improved its leverage to both the US and Australian markets, successfully transferring its manufacturing footprint to the US. The broker considers Reliance Worldwide better placed to handle near-term uncertainty.

The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and the target price increases to $5.30 from $4.10.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $0.03
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting downside of -3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.83 cents and EPS of 24.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.83 cents and EPS of 29.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $25.94

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Despite describing Westpac's first quarter result as 'messy', Jarden found the underlying operational performance solid. The broker points out core net interest margins of 1.8% are tracking 1-2 basis points better than expected, suggestive of an upcoming 'beat' from the bank.

The broker has lifted its first half net interest margins by 3 basis points to 1.90%, lifting FY24 and FY25 earnings forecasts by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively, largely on better margins and higher markets income.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $23.50.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $25.94 Difference: minus $2.44 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $23.42, suggesting downside of -9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 142.00 cents and EPS of 183.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 188.7, implying annual growth of -8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 185.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.3, implying annual growth of 0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 144.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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