Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 27, 2024

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   AMA   APA   APZ   BPT   CUV   CWY   ENN   EVN   HSN   KMD (2)   LLL   MTS (2)   PLS   PMV (2)   PNV   QBE   SDF   SPZ   STN   TLS   WEB  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.52

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Alkane Resources outlined a five-year production plan with better production, notes Moelis but at notably higher costs.

Remaining capital expenditures are estimated at $130m by the end of 2025, which is expected to be funded through cashflows and project debt, the analyst notes.

Moelis adjusts EPS estimates by 0.3% for FY24 and -75.8% for FY25.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, with a target price reduced to 60c from 85c.

This report was published on June 25, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.085
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.15.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.33.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMA    AMA GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AMA)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts have updated their outlook on AMA Group, maintaining a Buy rating and keeping the price target unchanged at $0.14.

The broker highlights the positive update by company management, which includes lifting the bottom end of FY24 guidance for pre-AASB16 EBITDA to $44-49m from $42-49m previously.

The broker notes the AMA Group Board has resolved to divest the ACM Parts business, classifying it as a discontinued operation, and has also completed recent board changes.

Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with FY24 EBITDA revised to $44.7m from $43.5m, and FY25 EBITDA to $56.5m from $55.1m. The broker remains optimistic about AMA’s strategic moves to improve its financial position and operational focus.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.1
If AMA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 250% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.32

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) –

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has called upon gas producers to increase output due to rapid depletion of Iona gas storage, higher gas-powered generation demand and low Longford gas output.

A $1/GJ increase in the broker’s forecast contracted gas price assumptions lifts its APA Group valuation by around 2%. The company has additional capacity to capture more value upside via the impact of higher gas prices on electricity prices, note the analysts.

Overweight rating. Target $9.00.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.32 Difference: $0.68
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.81, suggesting upside of 11.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 6.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APZ    ASPEN GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $1.78

Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Buy (1) –

Aspen Group’s maiden FY25 guidance (issued on May 29) implies growth of 7-11% year-on-year, notes Moelis, after the broker was released from research restriction.

Following the closure of the Eureka Group ((EGH)) bid, Aspen now owns 36% of that company’s shares, equating to around 8% of its total assets, explains the analyst.

FY24 underlying earnings were also upgraded to “at least 13.5cpu” from 13.0-13.5cpu previously.

The company continues to trade at a meaningful -17% discount to net asset value (NAV), highlights Moelis. Buy. Target $2.48.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $2.48 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.7
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.50

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has called upon gas producers to increase output due to rapid depletion of Iona gas storage, higher gas-powered generation demand and low Longford gas output.

A $1/GJ increase in the broker’s forecast contracted gas price assumptions lifts its Beach Energy valuation by around 5.2%. 

Overweight rating. Target $1.55.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0.045
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 21.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of -11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 36.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $15.38

Wilsons rates ((CUV)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights the lucrative leverage opportunities provided by the Scenesse label expansion into vitiligo, and the launch
into the Adrenocorticotropic Hormone (ACTH) market in the US.

As management at Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals keeps providing more information around expectations and preparation work, the broker suggest the opportunity is being materially undervalued by the wider market.

The company is aiming to leverage Scenesse into more indications (vitiligo, XP), and add new pharmaceutical product lines (Neuracthel), as well as diversify into photocosmetics (with a broader consumer audience), explains the broker.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target rises to $31.38 from $25.46.

This report was published on June 25, 2024.

Target price is $31.38 Current Price is $15.38 Difference: $16
If CUV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 23.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 59.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWY    CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.77

Jarden rates ((CWY)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes a -$110m acquisition of Citywide Service Solutions’ waste and recycling business, including the Dynon Road waste transfer station, which processes around 200k/t of waste p.a. by Cleanaway Waste Management.

The analyst highlights the strategic importance of the acquisition in the medium term with potential to almost double capacity to some 400k/t adding between $6-12m in EBIT by FY26.

Near term, the acquisition is slightly dilutive, but no changes are made to the broker’s earnings forecasts, as the deal is subject to ACCC approval.

The Overweight rating and target price of $2.85 are retained.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.08
If CWY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.88, suggesting upside of 4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 695.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 21.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ENN    ELANOR INVESTORS GROUP

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.01

Moelis rates ((ENN)) as Buy (1) –

Elanor Investors reported lower guidance forecasts for the 2H2024 compared to the Moelis analyst’s estimates.

The broker points to several underperforming co-investments and the target to divest some of these assets to resolve balance sheet constraints, and generate an estimated $54m of capital in 2024 and a further $40m in FY25.

Moelis adjusts FY24 estimates down by -25%, reflecting lower co-investment income and hotel operating fees.

The target price is lowered to $1.51 from $1.76 and the Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on June 25, 2024.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.5
If ENN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.10.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts have maintained their Buy rating for Evolution Mining, lowering their price target to $4.40 from $4.60.

The broker highlights the site visits to Northparkes and Cowal, providing more clarity on medium-term growth plans.

Despite higher-than-expected growth capex at Cowal, the broker is confident in strong free cash flow generation and near-term production growth.

FY25 group production is forecast at 745koz with an AISC of $1,469/oz. Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with FY24 EBITDA expected to be $1,326m, down from the previously estimated $1,375m.

The broker remains optimistic about Evolution’s operational predictability and strong production outlook.

This report was published on June 21, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $1.01
If EVN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 178.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of 70.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HSN    HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $4.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((HSN)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating for Hansen Technologies with its price target reduced to $4.85 from $5.20 due to increased uncertainty surrounding the Powercloud division.

FY24/25/26 EBITDA forecasts are adjusted to -2%/+2%/+3%, reflecting the broker’s expectations of improved cost management.

Despite industry tailwinds from the energy sector and potential cost-outs in the Powercloud segment, the broker argues the valuation remains conservative due to management changes and strategic uncertainties.

This report was published on June 18, 2024.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.43
If HSN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.58, suggesting upside of 47.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KMD)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Hold rating for KMD Brands with the target price lowered to 39c from 42c on the back of tough trading conditions, particularly with weak early winter sales for Kathmandu in New Zealand.

The analyst notes Rip Curl is showing some positive early summer season trading in the US and Europe.

Earnings forecasts are lowered with a – 29% reduction in FY24 EBITDA forecasts and -20% reduction in EBITDA estimates for FY25, Canaccord Genuity highlights.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.065
If KMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 30.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.01 cents and EPS of minus 0.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 353.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.02 cents and EPS of 0.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1805.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 192.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

KMD Brands has lowered FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance on the back of lower sales, notes Jarden, but the gross margin was resilient and operating costs were controlled. Additional weakness was experienced in the New Zealand business.

The current negative sales trends are broadly similar to those experienced in the first half, notes the broker, though Kathmandu sales have weakened again into the key winter sales period.

The analysts make only minor changes to earnings forecasts (having recently downgraded). Progress on working capital reduction is less-than-expected, resulting in a lift for the broker’s net debt forecasts.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target reduced to NZ70c from NZ75c.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Current Price is $0.33. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 30.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.39 cents and EPS of 2.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 192.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLL    LEO LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LLL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity analysts have downgraded their rating for Leo Lithium to Hold from Speculative Buy, lowering the price target to $0.50 from $0.80.

The downgrade reflects increased sovereign challenges in Mali and adjustments to financial projections following the sale of Goulamina to Ganfeng for US$343m.

The sale, approved by the Mali government, results in Leo Lithium ceasing project involvement by November 2024. Financial forecasts have been updated, with FY24 EBITDA now expected to be -$7.4m, reflecting better cost management, but FY25 EBITDA revised to $10m.

The broker views the transaction and subsequent capital return as steps to mitigate political risks and improve shareholder returns.

This report was published on June 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If LLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has retained a cautious view on Metcash versus consensus expectations post the FY24 results.

The analyst points to Trade which is experiencing greater macro headwinds in Hardware versus the DYI segment, offset by a stronger  performance in Food and Liquor.

Goldman Sachs remains cautious on the outlook due to higher exposure to the cyclical decline in the Trade segment, competitive pressures in Supermarkets, and recent management turnover.

Neutral rating and $3.70 target unchanged.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.08
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 14.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating for Metcash and raises the target price to $4.40 from $4.20.

The broker notes FY24 earnings declined but were marginally above consensus forecasts.

Metcash reported strong performances in the Food and Liquor segments which were offset by weaker Hardware, leading to a -4% reduction in the analyst’s FY25 earnings forecast.

When the housing sector eventually turns, Jarden expects strong earnings leverage in the hardware division. The broker is optimistic about Food and Liquor earnings growth through cost-out initiatives and rising teamwork scores.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.78
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 14.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.23

Jarden rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

The P2,000 expansion of existing Pilgangoora ore reserves will now progress to feasibilty study stage, notes Jarden.

Pilbara Minerals has noted the final investment decision (FID) in the December quarter of 2025 will be dependent upon market conditions at that time. The broker has included a conceptual P2000 in its valuation for Pilbara Minerals for some time. 

The target price falls to $3.80 from $4.10 after the analysts lower near-term earnings (EBITDA) forecasts on lower SC6 prices.

Given valuation support, the strategic value of 100% control of a Tier-1 operation, and a balance sheet capable of funding further growth, Jarden retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on June 25, 2024.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.57
If PLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of -85.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $31.81

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs retains a Sell rating and a $25.10 target price post Premier Investments receiving a proposal from Myer Holdings ((MYR)) for a potential all-scrip merger with Premier’s apparel brands, including Just Jeans, Jay Jays, Portmans, Jacquie E, and Dotti.

The broker notes the transaction could potentially lower the Lew Family’s direct shareholding in Myer below the current 31.4% shareholding of Premier Investments.

No changes to the earnings forecasts, with the analyst looking for further indications of the global growth potential of Peter Alexander and Smiggle.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $6.71 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting upside of 2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 169.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.7, implying annual growth of -0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.6, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Neutral (3) –

Myer Holdings ((MYR) has approached Premier Investments for a potential merger of its apparel business with Myer.

Jarden notes, under the proposal, the Premier Investments apparel business would be acquired by Myer in exchange for equity, leading Premier Investments shareholders to own around 70% of Myer.

Jarden envisages synergies in sourcing, leasing, data, and sales expansion, but highlights the deal is at an early stage.

More information is required before earnings forecasts are adjusted. Neutral rating and $30.80 target retained.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $30.80 Current Price is $31.81 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting upside of 2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 169.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.7, implying annual growth of -0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.6, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNV    POLYNOVO LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $2.42

Wilsons rates ((PNV)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights an impressive 1H and recent trading update by PolyNovo, which defied expectations based on weaker competitor readthroughs.

The broker anticipates higher growth in both the near-term and longer-term, the latter due to growth in ROW markets and a refocus on pipeline development, along with the company’s current positioning in the US market.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target is increased to $2.65 from $2.44 partly due to increases in the broker’s US pricing assumptions across the forecast period.

This report was published on June 25, 2024.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.23
If PNV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting downside of -16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 268.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 342.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.0, implying annual growth of 185.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 120.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $17.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs maintains a Buy rating for QBE Insurance Group, slightly lowering the price target to $20.60 from $20.90.

The adjustment reflects updated FY24 earnings, which include a -$100m restructuring charge and adverse impacts from the New Caledonia civil unrest.

Despite these challenges, the broker argues QBE’s North America de-risking strategy and improved profitability in the mid-market segment are positive developments.

Goldman Sachs revised 25/26 earnings forecasts upward, with expected improvements in underwriting profitability and growth in gross written premiums.

EPS and DPS estimates for FY24 have slightly reduced.

This report was published on June 18, 2024.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $17.48 Difference: $3.12
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.51, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 178.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 189.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.8, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF    STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.11

Goldman Sachs rates ((SDF)) as Neutral (3) –

Post the Steadfast Group investor day, Goldman Sachs highlights the company is evaluating a medium to long-term expansion strategy in North America, with a focus on technology modernisation and market consolidation.

Management also upgraded its FY24 guidance slightly and the analyst points to growth areas, including the ISU Network, governance initiatives, and trapped capital deployment within its network. 

Neutral rating and $6.10 target price.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SDF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 43.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.47

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating for Smart Parking, raising its price target to $0.70 from $0.52.

The broker notes the strong growth trajectory in the SaaS segment, with FY24 sales expected at $55.0m, down from previous estimates of $59.6m.

Despite the downgrade in sales and EBITDA forecasts for FY24/25/26, the broker maintains the company’s long-term prospects remain robust due to ongoing contract wins and market expansion.

Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with FY24 EBITDA revised to $14.8m from $16.8m, and FY25 EBITDA to $20.1m from $21.8m. The broker views the recent operational improvements and strategic initiatives positively, supporting the raised price target.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.23
If SPZ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.08.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STN    SATURN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.20

Petra Capital rates ((STN)) as Buy (1) –

Saturn Metals recently secured government approval for exploration drilling in salt-lake covered terrain near its 1.84Moz Apollo Hill Resource, with drilling to commence in July/August, Petra Capital notes.

The company aims to expand the Apollo Hill Resource to 2Moz and increase resource confidence with the feasibility study for a 1.2Mt heap leach pilot project expected in late July, according to the broker.

Petra Capital makes no changes to earnings forecasts. Buy rating and 50c target unchanged.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.305
If STN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 156% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.79.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.90.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.62

Jarden rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden reaffirms a Buy rating and $4 target price on Telstra Group after considering a comparison between BT Group’s transformation metrics and Telstra’s upcoming T30 strategy.

The analyst highlights potential ambitions for Telstra Group, including revenue growth and free cash flow expansion and forecasts a 2.1% compound growth rate in the company’s revenue over FY25-FY30.

Ex-spectrum, Jarden forecasts earnings to grow strongly over the next decade and underpin dividend payments in the mid-to-high 20c ranges, although tech investment could be required.

This report was published on June 24, 2024.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.38
If TLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $8.95

Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Commenting on Webjet’s planned separation of the WebBeds and B2C businesses, Wilsons can see a potential unlocking of additional shareholder value. It’s felt both entities will then be optimally capitalised for their respective growth opportunities.

WebBeds will remain within the existing listed entity, while Webjet OTA and GoSee (collectively Webjet B2C) will demerge.

Management anticipates the de-merger will complete prior to the end of 2024, and a detailed de-merger booklet will be sent to shareholders in August.

The Overweight rating and $10.04 target are maintained.

This report was published on June 25, 2024.

Target price is $10.04 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: $1.09
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 110.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.7, implying annual growth of 20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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