Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 19, 2024

This story features AMOTIV LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AOV

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AOV   ASK   BVS   CGF (2)   COH   CSL   EBR   EVN   JHX (2)   LIC   MFG   NDO   NUF   NWL   ORG   PME (2)   PWH   RGN   SEK (2)   SGM   TLS   TPW (3)   TRJ   TWE  

AOV    AMOTIV LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.74

Wilsons rates ((AOV)) as Overweight (1) –

Amotiv delivered FY24 earnings in line with guidance and Wilsons, but with stronger cash flow driving a material reduction in the leverage ratio.

The broker observes a favourable outlook for the business, driven by a growing car “parc” (vehicles on the road) and structural shift towards 4WDs and SUVs.

The investment thesis is further complemented by Amotiv’s effective margin management, Wilsons suggests, and investment in growth initiatives that will deliver incremental earnings through FY25 and more so into FY26.

Adjustments to earnings forecasts take the target down to $12.69 from $13.10, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $12.69 Current Price is $10.74 Difference: $1.95
If AOV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 20.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 89.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of 19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 99.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASK    ABACUS STORAGE KING

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.21

Moelis rates ((ASK)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis keeps its Hold rating and $1.34 target for Abacus Storage King following “solid” operating results. Storage remains more resilient-than-expected by the analyst, translating to robust valuations and steady capitalisation rates.

Revenue per available square metre (RevPAM) rose by 4.6% for the established portfolio and occupancy increased by 60bps, with rate increases accounting for the balance of growth in the period, explains the broker.

This report was published on August 14, 2024.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.135
If ASK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -40.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.31

Wilsons rates ((BVS)) as Overweight (1) –

Bravura Solutions’ FY24 numbers were all in line with guidance and consensus. The annualisation of further cost out remains the key financial driver in the short term, Wilsons suggests.

The broker sees FY24 as the year of stabilisation, FY25 as the year of consolidation and incremental investment, and FY26 as the year when Bravura returns to top-line growth and favourable operating leverage comes through.

The company announced a capital buyback of $20m with the flagged, but yet-to-be-approved $75m capital return expected in March quarter.

Target rises to $1.47 from $1.43, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.155
If BVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.40 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.07.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Buy (1) –

Challenger’s FY24 normalised net profit before tax (NPBT) metric was above the top end of guidance range for FY24, with the $317.8m generated in H2 exceeding the $308.4m forecast by Goldman Sachs.

A 12bps underlying improvement in the product cash margin from mix, duration et cetera was greater-than-expected by the analysts.

Around -2% weaker than the consensus estimate, FY25 normalised profit guidance is for between $440-$480m and management guided to meet its return on equity (ROE) target for FY25.

Buy rating and the target rises to $8.00 from $7.50.

This report was published on August 14, 2024.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $0.61
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 59.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 208.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Challenger reported FY24 earnings above forecasts and up 17% on FY23.

Life earnings contributed, while the broker likes the imrpovement in its capitalisation to 1.67x, a rise of 17 basis points from 1H24.

Jarden makes slights revisions in earnings forecasts. Target price raised to $7.80 from $7.50. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on August 14, 2024.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $0.41
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.88, suggesting upside of 6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 61.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 208.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 63.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH    COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $305.56

Wilsons rates ((COH)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating on Cochlear, revising its target to $345 from $365. The stock had a -7% down-day because FY24 market estimates, including the broker’s, became overheated, following the February upgrade (as per the broker’s admission).

Wilsons sees nothing “sinister”, and FY25 guidance and commentary had some of the strongest implant & acoustics language the broker has seen in years. We forget how spectacular the N8 launch was through calendar 2023, says Wilsons.

The market knocked a valuation point off Cochlear’s valuation, but may yet give it back, the broker suggests.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $345.00 Current Price is $305.56 Difference: $39.44
If COH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $277.10, suggesting downside of -9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 444.00 cents and EPS of 639.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 600.2, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 452.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 393.00 cents and EPS of 705.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 650.3, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 498.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $305.34

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses a “solid” FY24 result for CSL, with the key surprise a lift in the Vifor Pharma gross profit margin above the consensus estimate by 260bps, despite a -4.3% 2H revenue decline.

A 1% beat against consensus for FY24 revenue and gross profit was more than offset by selling and marketing expenses, which came in -5.9% worse than consensus.

The FY25 NPATA guidance of $2.9-3.0bn, representing a -0.6% miss versus the consensus forecast, was due to a larger-than-expected currency headwind, explains the broker.

The Overweight rating is unchanged. Jarden raises its target to $329.62 from $305.34.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $329.62 Current Price is $305.34 Difference: $24.28
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $327.46, suggesting upside of 7.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 457.53 cents and EPS of 927.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1001.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 461.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 463.32 cents and EPS of 1152.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1164.6, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 513.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBR    EBR SYSTEMS INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.17

Wilsons rates ((EBR)) as Overweight (1) –

EBR Systems SOLVE-CRT study data published recently confirms the data on which the company’s imminent Pre-Market Approval (PMA) filing is based. It’s a major achievement for the company and its collaborators, Wilsons suggests.

The company has kept its projects on track and managed cash well, the broker believes. Peer review validation ought to be celebrated because it lends confidence to the underlying PMA data.

When Wilsons initiated on EBR Systems back in Dec-21 it saw potential for $6/share valuation, un-risked and fully diluted.That remains the view. For now, target rises to $1.50 from $1.32, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.335
If EBR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.28.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.79.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $4.10

Goldman Sachs rates ((EVN)) as Buy (1) –

Evolution Mining reported strong FY24 financials, with underlying earnings and profit above Goldman Sachs. A final dividend of 5cps was also above the broker and more than double the FY23 final dividend.

Capital returns are expected to continue alongside further deleveraging, with gearing falling to 28% and expected to fall below 20% through FY25 on Goldman’s numbers.

FY25 production guidance is in line with the broker but costs are 7% higher.

Near-term free cash flow yields remain attractive versus most peers and Goldman remains Buy on copper exposure, free cash flow yield and significant deleveraging. Higher costs drop the target to $4.05 from $4.15.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 50.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of -10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $51.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((JHX)) as Buy (1) –

James Hardie Industries’ 1Q underlying profit beat forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus by 6%. Both the APAC region and Europe beat expectations but North America missed by -1% on weaker volume, partly offset by better margins, explain the analysts.

Reflecting ongoing pressure on repair and remodel (R&R) volumes and a softening outlook for new construction, 2Q volume guidance for North America fell -7% short of the consensus estimate, observes the broker. Overall FY25 guidance was unchanged.

The Buy rating is retained, and the target price falls by -3% to $55.85. Goldman Sachs forecasts a return to around 7% volume growth in FY26, reflecting continued single family new construction growth in 2025 and return to growth for R&R.

This report was published on August 14, 2024.

Target price is $55.85 Current Price is $51.99 Difference: $3.86
If JHX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 234.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 283.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.9, implying annual growth of 19.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Buy (1) –

James Hardie Industries reported better than forecast 1Q25 earnings including a one-off -$8m cost, Jarden observes.

Management offered lower-than-expected FY25 guidance, as well as the cessation of the Philippines operations.

The weak North American conditions, particularly in the repair/remodel markets, are viewed as cyclical and not structural.

Any share price weakness is considered an attractive entry point for the stock.

Target price adjusted to $54 from $55. Buy rated.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $51.99 Difference: $2.01
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 235.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 269.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.9, implying annual growth of 19.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $8.35

Jarden rates ((LIC)) as Overweight (2) –

Pricing on both new and secondary home sales suggests demand remains solid, suggests Jarden, while reviewing FY24 results for Lifestyle Communities.

As settlement volumes and cash revenues are under pressure, management is taking the right approach, suggests the broker, in slowing down production and managing capex.

The analyst believes management may be contemplating a change to the operating model, after the recent negative media coverage.

The Overweight rating and $11.70 target are maintained.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $3.35
If LIC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting upside of 24.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 50.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.0, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 73.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of 37.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((MFG)) as Neutral (3) –

Magellan Financial delivered a “strong” FY24 result with profit ahead of Goldman Sachs. According to management, the Vinva acquisition and distribution arrangement is expected to be broadly earnings per share neutral on FY25 and accretive on FY26.

Barrenjoey is expected to continue to grow strongly, while funds flows are likely breaking even post outflows resulting from the Magellan fund conversion to open class. The broker thinks there is still underlying retail flow pressure with Institutional now flat to perhaps positive.

Forecast earnings are upgraded, predominantly driven by associates (Barrenjoey & Vinva), some loss of investment income and an improved flow profile. Target rises to $10.00 from $9.10, Neutral retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.73 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.65, suggesting downside of -10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 76.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of -45.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.3, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NDO    NIDO EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $0.86

Wilsons rates ((NDO)) as Overweight (1) –

Nido Education reported a weaker than expected first half result, mainly driven by lower occupancy. Centre earnings were -14% below Wilsons’ forecast, with average occupancy -2% lower at 77%.

Occupancy has largely plateaued since Nido’s May-24 trading update, instead of steadily rising per typical seasonal patterns, the broker notes.

This dynamic, along with construction challenges which have delayed 14 new centre openings into 2025, has led management to revise down its 2024 estimates.

While disappointing, both of these factors reflect industry-wide issues largely out of Nido’s control. Target falls to $1.13 from $1.27, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.13 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.265
If NDO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.72.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUF    NUFARM LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.02

Wilsons rates ((NUF)) as Market Weight (3) –

Nufarm’s FY24 guidance downgrade is not overly surprising in relation to the crop protection business, Wilsons suggests, given recent peer results, but provides further evidence of the challenge for investors in assessing underlying trends in the business.

The Omega-3 downgrade creates some uncertainty around the interplay between commercial scale-up trajectory and relative pricing dynamic, the broker believes, distracting from the franchise’s game-changer potential.

Wilsons notes that the valuation for Development Seeds has the potential to increase dramatically, but remains conditional on the trajectory of commercial scale-up in the respective franchises.

Target falls to $3.97 from $4.86, Market Weight retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $3.97 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If NUF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 30.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 160.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.0, implying annual growth of -58.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 177.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $23.03

Jarden rates ((NWL)) as Underweight (4) –

Netwealth Group reported lower than anticipated FY24 earnings from softer platform revenues, notes Jarden. although net flows remained “strong” for the start of FY25.

The analyst is looking for some margin pressures as investment costs rise on the back of the Xeppo acquisition.

EPS forecasts are revised by -3.6% and -4.1% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price trimmed to $17.20 from $17.75. Underweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $17.20 Current Price is $23.03 Difference: minus $5.83 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.91, suggesting downside of -4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.30 cents and EPS of 42.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.6, implying annual growth of 27.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.50 cents and EPS of 51.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.8, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $9.66

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORG)) as Buy (1) –

Origin Energy reported softer than expected FY24 results with underlying earnings -5% below Goldman Sachs’ estimates, impacted by lower electricity margin and higher Energy Markets cost-to-serve.

Higher Energy Markets costs are expected to prevail as inflation headwinds, bad & doubtful debts and regulatory costs limit Origin’s ability to deliver a -$200-250m cost reduction target by FY25, now targeting a -$100-150m reduction from FY24 to FY26.

A final 27.5c dividend was declared, in line with the broker’s estimate, though -9% below consensus.

Goldman Sachs sees the negative market response as a buying opportunity. Buy retained, target falls -4% to $10.75.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $9.66 Difference: $1.09
If ORG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.58, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of -11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.6, implying annual growth of -15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $150.67

Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Buy (1) –

FY24 sales, earnings and profit for Pro Medicus all exceeded Goldman Sachs forecasts by 1%, 1% and 5%, respectively, leading to a target of $149, up from $148. It’s felt the contract pipeline remains strong. Hence, the Buy rating is maintained.

Supporting market share gains in the US, the broker points to clearly emerging network effects within paediatrics, after the announced signing of the Lurie Children’s Hospital hard on the heels of the award of two paediatric contracts in May.

Due to improving efficiencies via Visage and the opening of new hospital sites, exam volumes for Pro Medicus are growing at 7-8% per year against 2-3% for the industry, explain the analysts.

Management expects a material step-up in transaction volumes into FY25 due to record contract wins over FY24.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $149.00 Current Price is $150.67 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $128.50, suggesting downside of -14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 146.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.7, implying annual growth of 29.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 146.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 115.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.7, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 111.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons raises its target for Pro Medicus to $145 from $93 after FY24 results reminded all and sundry of the company’s earnings reliability and ongoing ability to capture market share.

Sales revenue of $161.5m marked an increase of 29% on the previous corresponding period, while earnings (EBIT) margins beat expectations expanding by 230bps to 69.5%, which was 240bps ahead of the analysts’ forecast.

Improving the quality of earnings and their defensibility, suggests the broker, the US customer base continues to diversify. The board declared a fully franked final dividend of 22cps, bringing the total FY24 dividend to 40cps.

The Market Weight rating is maintained. The valuation can be hard to justify, but Wilsons points out investors are willing to pay up for five-year forward certainty of earnings growth, with risk to the upside if new products eventuate.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $145.00 Current Price is $150.67 Difference: minus $5.67 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $128.50, suggesting downside of -14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 102.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 147.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.7, implying annual growth of 29.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 146.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 61.90 cents and EPS of 125.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 120.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.7, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 111.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWH    PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((PWH)) as Buy (1) –

PWR Holdings’ FY24 profit was -7% below consensus with guidance for margins to be impacted in the near term, however long-term growth prospects remain unchanged with the company investing to increase capacity with the transition to a new Australian facility in FY26.

Goldman Sachs notes that timing of revenue and programs can often impact PWR Holdings’ results.

No formal earnings guidance has been provided, however, management expects margins to be impacted in FY25 which is considered a Transition Year’ given the move to the new facility.

Buy and $13.40 target retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $9.90 Difference: $3.5
If PWH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.18, suggesting upside of 23.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RGN    REGION GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.24

Moelis rates ((RGN)) as Buy (1) –

While cost inflation was still outpacing rent in FY24 for Region Group, Moelis considers the REIT is well placed for EPS growth from FY26.

For FY24, Region reported funds from operations (FFO) and adjusted FFO of 15.4cpu and 13.6cpu, respectively, which missed guidance for 15.6cpu and 13.7cpu.

FY25 FFO and adjusted FFO of 15.5cpu and 13.7cpu, respectively, are around -4% below the analyst’s prior estimates.

The Buy rating and $2.54 target are unchanged after Moelis allows for higher corporate costs, increased refurbishment downtime, partially offset by increased funds management income.

This report was published on August 14, 2024.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.3
If RGN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.50, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 960.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $21.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

Not only did FY24 earnings and profit for Seek miss prior forecasts made by Goldman Sachs by -3% and -9%, respectively, but also FY25 guidance disappointed after underperformance in Asia.

The broker notes structural concerns in Singapore/Philippines due to share shifts towards free portals given the challenging environment. These shifts resulted in a small decline in Asia placement share for Seek and a more cautious yield outlook than expected.

In Australia, the reverse was true as placement share improved strongly in the 2H, highlight the analysts.

The target falls to $19.50 from $20.60. Sell.

This report was published on August 14, 2024.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: minus $2.42 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 22.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of 25.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SEK)) as Buy (1) –

Seek reported lower than forecast FY24 earnings and FY25 guidance, with Jarden commenting cyclical impacts are driving A&NZ volumes lower, a -20% fall in the 2H24.

The broker believes the company needs to improve the timeliness of its updates with the July 25 update failing to address the downgraded earnings.

EPS forecasts are adjusted for the weaker FY25 guidance. Target price revised to $26.60 from $28. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $21.92 Difference: $4.68
If SEK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 22.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.50 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.70 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of 25.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $11.11

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

In a better-than-expected price outcome, according to Jarden, Sims has sold its underperforming UK Metals business for around $385m. Also, management announced plans to sell its residual -12.4% stake in Circular Services for around US$30m.

At a time of US steel capacity increases, arguably these transactions improve the likelihood of a takeover/merger, suggests the broker, given the company’s lagging share price.

Jarden lowers its target for Sims to $11.90 from $12.10 but upgrades to Overweight from Neutral on greater valuation certainty.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $11.11 Difference: $0.79
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.78, suggesting upside of 15.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 132.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Telstra reported FY24 earnings and dividend in line with Goldman Sachs, while FY25 earnings guidance was narrowed to the high end of the prior-range, in line with expectations.

A -3% mobile downgrade is offset by stronger Fixed, while lower interest and D&A is partly offset by a higher contyribution from minorities.

Goldman Sachs believes the low risk earnings (and dividend) growth that Telstra is delivering across FY22-25, underpinned through its mobile business, is attractive. Target rises to $4.35 from $4.30, Buy retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.39
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $11.65

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity raises its target for Temple & Webster to $13 from $12 after modest earnings upgrades following FY24 results.

Despite the current investment-for-growth period for the company, FY24 revenue, adjusted earnings and free cash flow (FCF) all slightly exceeded the broker’s forecasts. Material market share gains were also evident in a softer macroeconomic environment.

Enhancing the competitive moat, suggest the analysts, the company is moving towards exclusive products via private label and direct supplier relationships. Buy.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.65 Difference: $1.35
If TPW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 166.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 353.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 171.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 77.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 164.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden considers Temple & Webster a key small cap stock which was confirmed with a “strong” FY24 earnings result.

The August update revealed ongoing trading strength relative to soft web traffic data, the broker observes.

Temple & Webster gained market share and is believed to be well positioned in either a soft or improving (at some stage) macroeconomic environment.

Revised target price to $14.30 from $12.67 on the back of higher EPS forecasts of 35% and 11% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $11.65 Difference: $2.65
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 164.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 353.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 171.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 164.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital raises its target for Temple & Webster to $13.10 from $12.20 following stronger-than-expected FY24 revenue growth, driven by a 31% jump in active customer growth.

A steady conversion rate further boosted revenue, explains the broker, partially offset by lower average order value (AOV).

Early indications for FY25 are promising, with the analyst pointing to a 26% rise in revenue up until August 11 on the previous corresponding period.

Petra Capital also highlights strong market share gains, while management at the same time still delivered an EBITDA margin at the top end of guidance.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $11.65 Difference: $1.45
If TPW meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.09, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 187.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 353.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 171.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 164.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRJ    TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TRJ)) as Buy (1) –

The analyst at Canaccord Genuity now has more confidence inventory work through by customers of Trajan is approaching resolution.

This view was reached after attending an investor dinner where management provided line of sight into customer inventory levels and product utilisation.

The broker now believes spend from key pharmaceutical customers is rebounding, with key decisions in R&D and analytics now being made faster.

The Buy rating and $1.20 target are unchanged.

This report was published on August 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.05
If TRJ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.07.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $12.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Treasury Wine Estates reported FY24 results largely in line with pre-guidance, with second half sales up 28% year on year and earnings up 33%, in line with Goldman Sachs, respectively reflecting the acquisition of Daou.

Management guided to $780-810m of earnings in FY25, against which the broker’s updated forecast is at the lower end at $781m.

Goldman Sachs is cautiously optimistic on Penfolds’ re-entrance into China given soft consumer sentiment and potential disruption of parallel imports.

Target rises to $15.20 from $14.70, Buy retained.

This report was published on August 16, 2024.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $2.92
If TWE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.7, implying annual growth of 385.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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