In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 30-08-24

This story features ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADA

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

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ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((ADA)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy by Taylor Collison.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Despite Adacel Technologies’ disappointing FY24 result, Taylor Collison retains the faith, positing the company offers an asymmetric opportunity for investors related to the re-submission decision by the Federal Aviation Authority for Training Simulator Software, which the broker believes will be re-awarded to Adacel.

The broker considers the company to be heavily undervalued by the market and observes any new contract wins will scale sharply on the company’s stable cost base.

Highlights from the FY24 result included the write down of -$1.9m of intangibles, which triggered a -$1.4m EBITDA loss versus the broker’s forecast $1m profit. 

Cash flow in the June half also disappointed due to the increase in inventory arising from the initial award of the contract, but the broker expects the build to unwind through FY25.

The big negative was downgraded FY25 guidance to $4m to $5m from $6m to $8m at the December half result as customers opted not to take up extra work.

Rating is upgraded to Speculative Buy from Outperform/Accumulate.

CODAN LIMITED ((CDA)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Codan reported “solid” FY24 results across the group, Moelis comments. Communications grew with an expanded orderbook of 21% year-on-year and tactical communications reported robust growth in unmanned systems and broadcast markets.

The broker points to ongoing outperformance from Zetron from FY24 into FY25.

Moelis upgrades EPS forecasts by 6% and 9.7% for FY25/FY26, boosted by margin improvements for radio communications and revenue growth for metal detection/radio communications.

The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price moves to $16.85 with a transfer of analyst coverage.

UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((UNI)) Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Universal Store’s FY24 results were better than the already upbeat expectations from Jarden. The company continues to perform well in challenging market conditions and relative to competitors, observes the broker.

Gross margin came in 60 basis points above Jarden’s forecast and 40 basis above consensus.

Notably, the trading update was strong with like-for-like sales growing by brand. US total sales advanced 15.3% in the first two weeks of FY25.

Jarden revises earnings forecasts by 3.2% for FY25 and 1.2% for FY26. Buy rating unchanged. Target price moves to $7.88 from $6.47.

VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((VEA)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

The 1H24 earnings from Viva Energy were broadly in line with forecasts from Goldman Sachs. The interim dividend was 4% above estimate.

The analyst continues to focus on-the-run store transition after the =$1.2bn acquisition in March. Management flagged the rollout will take longer than originally suggested, due to planning and landlord consent delays.

Around 30 transitions are expected over the next 12-months. Goldman Sachs remains cautious on the 500-store transition, the 85 additions and a -$60m cost out program from synergies.

The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price falls -4% to $3.60. Earnings forecasts are tweaked by the broker.

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EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Eagers Automotive’s June-half result nosed out guidance but Moelis observes gross profit margins disappointed, falling to 17.8% from 18.8% at December 31due to pressure on new car margins and excess BYD stock (cleared through discounting).

A jump in interest costs and inventory also hit profit before tax margins. Moelis spies little relief for margins over the next few years but suspects the company does have levers it can pull on the revenue and productivity front that could mitigate some of the impact.

Net operating cash flow fell -35% to $228m and the company closed the year with a strong balance sheet and net debt of $494.1m, observed Moelis.

On the upside, management retained FY24 guidance, forecasting more than $1bn topline growth advising demand remained robust.

EPS forecasts are downgraded -5% to -10% over FY24 and FY25 to reflect the margin-compression outlook.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price falls to $11.51 (it was $12.41 in June).

AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED ((ASG)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Autosports Group’s FY24 result missed consensus’ forecasts by -7% and Moelis’ forecasts by -14% (on a pre-AASB16 basis) as revenue fell and gross profit margins slumped to 19.5% from 20.1% with margin weakness skewed to the second half, observes the broker.

No FY25 guidance was provided but management expects the new car market will be subject to strong competition for some time.

Moelis attributes the margin fall to discounting arising from excess new car inventory. Operating cash flow fell -28% on the previous corresponding year, to $119.5m. 

The broker expects the Stillwell Motor Group acquisition will be single-digit EPS accretive, funded from cash, and observes the company’s balance sheet should rule out further M&A for a year.

EPS forecasts fall -10% in FY25 and FY26 to reflect margin pressures.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target price falls to $2.30.

BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((BRI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Despite modest gearing, continued cash generation, and sound opex management, residential exposure continues to weigh on the Big River Industries with a partial offset via commercial activity, notes Moelis.

Broadly in-line FY24 results showed the earnings (EBITDA) margin compressed to 7.9% driven by lower volumes in frame and truss manufacturing, explains the broker.

Management’s shorter-term outlook commentary suggests to the analysts consumer confidence around residential will remain subdued, while the medium-term outlook is brighter based on demand, low vacancy rates, and expected interest rate falls.

A final fully franked 2 cent dividend represents a 78% payout on FY24 earnings.

The broker’s target falls to $1.68 from $2.00 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden observes Cleanaway Waste Management continues to generate positive earnings before interest and tax with negative EPS revisions as higher net interest charges bite.

The broker cuts EPS forecasts by -4% for FY25. FY26 EPS estimate unchanged.

Operationally, competition in solid waste services continues; liquid waste and health services continued to improve, but Jarden questions its sustainability in FY25.

Target price moves to $3.05 from $3. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight, with a “less appealing” proposition for FY25.

EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ebos Group posted a solid result in line with Jarden’s expectations of underlying earnings up 7% year on year. The dividend was up 9% on a 70% payout ratio.

FY25 maiden earnings guidance of $575-600m compares to Jarden’s forecast of $601m, the decline mostly reflecting the impact of non-renewal of the Chemist Warehouse contract, which generated revenues of $2.2bn.

Key drivers include base business growth across both divisions, Community Pharmacy revenue and share growth and cost initiatives.

With Ebos’ share price now better capturing earnings prospects and potential bolt-on M&A activity, Jarden downgrades to Neutral from Overweight on more limited valuation upside. Target unchanged at NZ$38.

EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED ((EHL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

FY24 EBITDA from Emeco Holdings was largely in line although Jarden notes the negative response from the market was driven by the increased uncertainty in the outlook.

This is particularly apparent in guidance for higher depreciation and the increased growth required from rental to replace underground earnings.

The company has fleshed out a three-year plan to improve its return on capital to a target of 20% by FY26, from 15% in FY24. In the near term priorities, remain with generating greater returns from capital already invested in the core fleet.

While remaining positive, Jarden believes the benefits from initiatives must be demonstrated over FY25 to provide upside to its current investment view and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target is reduced to $0.85 from $0.90.

INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP ((INA)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ingenia Communities’ FY24 EPS outpaced guidance but strong development settlements paired with a fall in gross margins to 45% from 48% in FY23.

The broker says the company provided maiden disclosure on its development economics on a per unit basis and pointed out “underlying profit excludes a negative fair value movement on land needed to secure above-ground profit”.

The broker cuts its target price to $4.07 from $4.93 to reflect lower net profitability in the development business. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Qube Holdings delivered FY24 underlying profit growth of 13%, within its targeted 10-15% upgraded guidance range from its Strategy Day in May. Consistent with prior years, Qube has not provided quantitative earnings guidance for the FY25 outlook.

Jarden admits to being far too optimistic about the pace and impact of Patricks’ market share reversion to historical levels. Similarly, the broker’s forecast of a further 10% profit growth from strong FY24 levels appears too lofty at this stage, despite it being well below Qube’s long-run average.

Jarden now sees the stock as fairly valued at current levels and balancing the outlook for earnings growth in FY25. As a result, the broker lowers its rating to Neutral from Overweight, with its target cut to $3.85 from $4.00.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
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1	ADACEL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Taylor Collison
2	CODAN LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Moelis
3	UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Jarden
4	VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Goldman Sachs
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5	AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Moelis
6	BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Moelis
7	CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
8	EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Moelis
9	EBOS GROUP LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
10	EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
11	INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP	Sell	Neutral	Moelis
12	QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change
A1M	AIC Mines	$0.30	Moelis	0.64	0.70	-8.57%
ABG	Abacus Group	$1.23	Moelis	1.45	1.46	-0.68%
ALK	Alkane Resources	$0.42	Petra Capital	1.13	0.97	16.49%
ANZ	ANZ Bank	$30.04	Goldman Sachs	29.45	29.42	0.10%
			Goldman Sachs	29.48	29.42	0.20%
APE	Eagers Automotive	$10.16	Jarden	12.60	13.00	-3.08%
			Moelis	11.51	12.41	-7.25%
			Wilsons	10.87	10.47	3.82%
ASG	Autosports Group	$2.15	Moelis	2.30	3.40	-32.35%
			Wilsons	3.41	3.69	-7.59%
AUB	AUB Group	$31.46	Goldman Sachs	34.00	33.00	3.03%
			Jarden	33.75	33.85	-0.30%
AX1	Accent Group	$2.08	Wilsons	2.40	2.50	-4.00%
BAP	Bapcor	$4.85	Goldman Sachs	5.20	6.90	-24.64%
BEN	Bendigo & Adelaide Bank	$11.84	Goldman Sachs	11.67	11.41	2.28%
BLX	Beacon Lighting	$2.69	Jarden	2.70	2.80	-3.57%
BOQ	Bank of Queensland	$6.27	Goldman Sachs	5.54	5.44	1.84%
BRE	Brazilian Rare Earths	$2.60	Canaccord Genuity	5.30	5.50	-3.64%
BRG	Breville Group	$33.29	Goldman Sachs	34.20	28.00	22.14%
			Jarden	26.30	23.60	11.44%
			Petra Capital	28.30	24.40	15.98%
			Wilsons	34.90	31.30	11.50%
BRI	Big River Industries	$1.39	Moelis	1.68	2.00	-16.00%
BXB	Brambles	$17.84	Jarden	17.90	15.90	12.58%
CAJ	Capitol Health	$0.32	Jarden	0.29	0.27	7.41%
			Wilsons	0.32	0.27	18.52%
CDA	Codan	$15.24	Canaccord Genuity	15.34	10.83	41.64%
			Moelis	16.85	10.22	64.87%
CGS	Cogstate	$1.02	Canaccord Genuity	1.45	2.10	-30.95%
CKF	Collins Foods	$7.53	Jarden	9.57	10.01	-4.40%
			Wilsons	11.79	12.83	-8.11%
COF	Centuria Office REIT	$1.20	Moelis	1.73	1.88	-7.98%
CTD	Corporate Travel Management	$11.79	Jarden	14.00	19.00	-26.32%
			Wilsons	12.43	15.25	-18.49%
CWP	Cedar Woods Properties	$5.57	Moelis	6.03	5.39	11.87%
CWY	Cleanaway Waste Management	$2.90	Goldman Sachs	3.00	2.70	11.11%
			Jarden	3.05	3.00	1.67%
DMP	Domino’s Pizza Enterprises	$30.05	Goldman Sachs	40.00	36.30	10.19%
			Jarden	42.00	48.00	-12.50%
			Petra Capital	34.00	38.10	-10.76%
DTL	Data#3	$7.65	Goldman Sachs	8.15	8.10	0.62%
			Jarden	8.54	8.65	-1.27%
			Wilsons	9.23	9.12	1.21%
DUG	Dug Technology	$3.16	Canaccord Genuity	3.50	3.20	9.37%
			Wilsons	4.11	3.58	14.80%
EDV	Endeavour Group	$5.31	Goldman Sachs	6.20	6.30	-1.59%
EHL	Emeco Holdings	$0.80	Canaccord Genuity	1.05	0.99	6.06%
			Jarden	0.85	0.90	-5.56%
EXP	Experience Co	$0.15	Canaccord Genuity	0.24	0.25	-4.00%
FBU	Fletcher Building	$2.63	Goldman Sachs	3.00	3.05	-1.64%
GEM	G8 Education	$1.26	Canaccord Genuity	1.46	1.43	2.10%
			Moelis	1.46	1.43	2.10%
GOZ	Growthpoint Properties Australia	$2.45	Moelis	3.32	3.43	-3.21%
HLS	Healius	$1.61	Jarden	1.41	1.22	15.57%
HSN	Hansen Technologies	$4.25	Goldman Sachs	4.95	4.85	2.06%
IAG	Insurance Australia Group	$7.45	Goldman Sachs	7.20	7.30	-1.37%
			Jarden	7.55	7.35	2.72%
INA	Ingenia Communities	$5.10	Moelis	4.07	4.93	-17.44%
IPH	IPH	$6.23	Goldman Sachs	8.25	8.70	-5.17%
			Jarden	9.15	10.10	-9.41%
JIN	Jumbo Interactive	$13.81	Wilsons	15.89	18.73	-15.16%
KYP	Kinatico	$0.10	Taylor Collison	0.15	N/A	–
LAU	Lindsay Australia	$0.87	Wilsons	1.22	1.25	-2.40%
LGL	Lynch Group	$1.50	Jarden	1.90	2.00	-5.00%
MGH	Maas Group	$4.51	Wilsons	4.91	4.67	5.14%
MP1	Megaport	$8.38	Canaccord Genuity	11.15	7.10	57.04%
			Goldman Sachs	12.00	14.00	-14.29%
MPL	Medibank Private	$3.88	Goldman Sachs	4.00	3.88	3.09%
MVF	Monash IVF	$1.18	Wilsons	1.46	1.58	-7.59%
NHF	nib Holdings	$6.30	Goldman Sachs	6.60	8.10	-18.52%
NSR	National Storage REIT	$2.40	Moelis	2.40	2.38	0.84%
NST	Northern Star Resources	$15.00	Canaccord Genuity	18.75	18.65	0.54%
			Goldman Sachs	13.70	14.10	-2.84%
PBH	PointsBet Holdings	$0.50	Jarden	0.95	0.85	11.76%
PLS	Pilbara Minerals	$2.91	Goldman Sachs	N/A	2.40	-100.00%
PNR	Pantoro	$0.12	Petra Capital	0.18	0.16	12.50%
PNV	PolyNovo	$2.37	Wilsons	3.00	N/A	–
PWR	Peter Warren Automotive	$1.83	Jarden	2.10	2.75	-23.64%
			Moelis	1.85	1.98	-6.57%
PXA	Pexa Group	$12.99	Goldman Sachs	15.70	16.00	-1.88%
			Jarden	14.45	13.65	5.86%
QUB	Qube Holdings	$3.82	Goldman Sachs	4.20	3.70	13.51%
			Jarden	3.85	4.00	-3.75%
RED	Red 5	$0.32	Petra Capital	0.51	0.45	13.33%
RFF	Rural Funds	$2.04	Moelis	2.20	2.39	-7.95%
			Wilsons	2.43	2.49	-2.41%
RIC	Ridley Corp	$2.20	Wilsons	2.54	2.58	-1.55%
RRL	Regis Resources	$1.83	Canaccord Genuity	2.05	2.30	-10.87%
			Goldman Sachs	1.85	2.10	-11.90%
SBM	St. Barbara	$0.25	Petra Capital	0.59	0.50	18.00%
SFX	Sheffield Resources	$0.31	Petra Capital	0.57	0.68	-16.18%
SGM	Sims	$10.83	Goldman Sachs	11.40	11.10	2.70%
			Jarden	12.00	11.90	0.84%
SHA	Shape Australia	$2.63	Moelis	2.95	2.64	11.74%
			Petra Capital	2.84	2.47	14.98%
SLC	Superloop	$1.71	Canaccord Genuity	2.07	1.86	11.29%
			Wilsons	1.91	1.61	18.63%
SSM	Service Stream	$1.46	Canaccord Genuity	1.68	1.45	15.86%
STN	Saturn Metals	$0.20	Petra Capital	0.78	0.56	39.29%
STO	Santos	$7.16	Goldman Sachs	8.65	8.35	3.59%
			Jarden	8.10	8.25	-1.82%
SUL	Super Retail	$17.66	Goldman Sachs	18.60	17.80	4.49%
			Jarden	17.30	15.10	14.57%
			Wilsons	16.10	13.70	17.52%
SXE	Southern Cross Electrical Engineering	$1.79	Moelis	2.10	1.94	8.25%
TLC	Lottery Corp	$4.94	Goldman Sachs	5.40	5.60	-3.57%
			Jarden	5.10	5.00	2.00%
TRS	Reject Shop	$3.10	Jarden	5.10	5.80	-12.07%
UNI	Universal Store	$6.88	Jarden	7.88	6.47	21.79%
			Wilsons	8.40	7.00	20.00%
VEA	Viva Energy	$2.89	Goldman Sachs	3.60	3.43	4.96%
VNT	Ventia Services	$4.18	Canaccord Genuity	4.75	4.40	7.95%
WGX	Westgold Resources	$2.88	Petra Capital	3.67	3.10	18.39%
WHC	Whitehaven Coal	$6.61	Goldman Sachs	6.80	7.80	-12.82%
WTC	WiseTech Global	$118.68	Goldman Sachs	104.00	91.00	14.29%
			Jarden	101.00	83.00	21.69%
Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change

More Highlights

ABG    ABACUS GROUP

REITs Overnight Price: $1.20

Moelis rates ((ABG)) as Buy (1)

Abacus Group reported higher than forecast earnings in FY24, comments Moelis, with improved leasing boosting office occupancy to 93.4%, up from 92.6% in February.

The group’s retail assets continued to perform well. Like-for-like sales advanced 6.3%, from around 3.8% in FY23.

Some $30.6m in income was generated including distribution, management and development fees from the 19.8% stake in Abacus Storage King ((ASK)), the broker observes.

Buy rated. Target price $1.45.

This report was published on August 25, 2024.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.25
If ABG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.23, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting Overnight Price: $0.80

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1)

FY24 earnings (EBITDA) and profit for Emeco Holdings were in line with Canaccord Genuity’s expectation, while cash conversion of 93% was considered strong.

The broker feels the end of the -$47m growth capex program in FY24 heralds the beginning of a new chapter for Emeco.

The analysts anticipate a materially stronger balance sheet due to growing earnings, falling capex, an improving return on capital (ROC) and a suspended capital management program. The broker expects the latter will be revisited at the end of FY25.

Buy rating unchanged. Target edges up to $1.05 from 99 cents.

This report was published on August 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.25
If EHL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.52.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.10 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.23.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOZ    GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA

Infra & Property Developers Overnight Price: $2.33

Moelis rates ((GOZ)) as Buy (1)

One-off items boosted the FY24 results for Growthpoint Properties Australia according to Moelis. A 13.9c dividend was in line with guidance.

Office leasing occupancy stood at 92%; industrial is 100% occupied and gearing increased slightly to 40.7%.

Management guided to a payout ratio at the lower end of the range due to the gearing above 40%, which the broker believes is “sound” strategically.

Buy rated. Target price $3.32.

This report was published on August 22, 2024.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.99
If GOZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal Overnight Price: $6.34

Jarden rates ((IPH)) as Overweight (2)

Jarden assesses IPH reported better than expected FY24 EPS results and above consensus, due to strong Canadian revenues and an improvement in Australia’s market share. Asian results were the weak spot with 3%-4% EBITDA growth expected in the near term.

The Bereskin & Parr acquisition boosts Canadian market share to around 35% and adds circa 3% to FY25 earnings forecasts.

Higher corporate costs, headwinds to the Australian operations, weaker Asia, alongside adjustments from the equity raising and EPS accretion from the acquistion, they all result in forecast EPS declines of -2% in FY25 up to -3% in FY27.

The stock is Overweight rated. Target price falls to $9.15 from $10.10.

This report was published on August 22, 2024.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: $2.81
If IPH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.18, suggesting upside of 29.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.70 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.8, implying annual growth of 86.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.40 cents and EPS of 53.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KYP    KINATICO LIMITED

Software & Services Overnight Price: $0.10

Taylor Collison rates ((KYP)) as Outperform (2)

Kinatico’s FY24 result met Taylor Collison’s forecasts but the broker downgrades earnings forecasts to reflect an uptick in investment in FY25.

Given the forecast -$4m investment is aimed at expediting Kinatico’s $4.2m pipeline, the broker retains an Outperform rating, believing the company’s $9.8m cash balance to be sufficient to fund growth..

SaaS revenue grew 90% to $5.3m (37% of total revenue up from 31% in the December half).

The broker observes a strong focus on higher margin products. EPS forecasts rise sharply across FY25 and FY26.

This report was published on August 26, 2024.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.05
If KYP meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.03.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LAU    LINDSAY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics Overnight Price: $0.94

Wilsons rates ((LAU)) as Overweight (1)

Lindsay Australia delivered a better-than-expected FY24 result. Wilsons notes a “solid recovery” in the fourth quarter versus the weather-affected third quarter. Transport led the recovery.

The company expects a continuation of improved transport conditions and a gradual recovery in horticulture volumes and grower sentiment. Wilsons lifts EBITDA forecast by 2-4% for FY25-27. Overweight maintained. Target is reduced to $1.22 from $1.25.

This report was published on August 23, 2024.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.285
If LAU meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.22, suggesting upside of 30.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 23.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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