Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 19, 2024

This story features ASTRAL RESOURCES NL, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAR

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AAR   ANG   BRE   CDA   CNU   DDR   DTL   EMR   IPX   MEI   MEK   MMS   OML   OPT   PNR   PWR (2)   S32   SIQ   SYR   TCL  

AAR    ASTRAL RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AAR)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has initiated coverage on Astral Resources with a Speculative Buy and price target of $0.39.

The broker noted drill programs and technical studies are underway across the company’s Mandilla and Feysville gold projects.

It is modelling a 2.5 million tonnes per annum operation for an average annual gold production of 79,000 ounces over an 11-year mine life (95koz average in the first seven years)

The broker’s modelling largely aligns with the life of mine plan in the Mandilla scoping study but it has incorporated more conservative assumptions for operating and capital costs. In the case of Feysville, Canaccord sees a potential upside to its base production estimates.

Target price $0.39.

This report was published on December 12, 2024.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.24
If AAR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANG    AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.52

Petra Capital rates ((ANG)) as Buy (1) –

Austin Engineering has secured truck tray purchase orders totalling $2.7m from its maiden customer in India which Petra Capital says is not material.

However, the broker views this as far more valuable from a strategic perspective given India ranks among the largest producers of iron ore and coal globally.

Petra Capital has left forecasts unchanged but highlights upside risks in the event the company’s sales into India gain momentum.

Target price unchanged at 60c and Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.085
If ANG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.58.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.46.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $2.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1) –

Following a site visit to Brazilian Rare Earths’ project in Brazil and recently released initial metallurgical leach test work results, Canaccord Genuity has remodelled its development scenario for the Monte Alto deposit.

Key changes include timeline revisions, lower capital expenditure, smaller throughput and higher grades.

The broker reminds its modelling should be seen as preliminary, subject to the release of the maiden mineral resource estimate and scoping studies confirming operating/technical parameters.

Target price raised to $5.50 from $5.30. Speculative Buy maintained.

This report was published on December 16, 2024.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $3.26
If BRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 146% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDA    CODAN LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $15.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((CDA)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Codan with a Buy rating and target price of $18.

The broker considers Codan a high-quality electronics company with multiple levers available to grow both its metal detection and communication segments. 

The broker’s profit forecasts are 3-5% above consensus due to higher acquisition and integration assumptions. Goldman also sees further upside potential from incremental accretive acquisitions, and the integration and expansion of recently acquired businesses.

This report was published on December 18, 2024.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.94 Difference: $2.06
If CDA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.90, suggesting downside of -0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 55.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 66.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.2, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNU    CHORUS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $8.14

Jarden rates ((CNU)) as Underweight (4) –

The Commerce Commission released its final decision on Chorus’ maximum allowable revenue (MAR) for the second regulatory period (four-year period starting January 2025) which was up NZ$222m versus the draft MAR. It was higher than Jarden’s published forecast by NZ$191m.

Jarden believes there’s an upside risk to the company’s nearer-term earnings and cash flow track if Chorus can take advantage of the headroom through demand stimulation ahead of its expectations and/or generate stronger price growth above the inflation forecast in the non-anchor products.

The broker will be watching what competition and Chorus’ increased speeds mean for these dynamics, with some risk of average revenue per user dilution on the recently proposed changes.

Target remains at NZ$7.57 and Underweight retained.

This report was published on December 13, 2024.

Current Price is $8.14. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.76 cents and EPS of 5.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 138.60.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 53.96 cents and EPS of 14.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.86.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DDR    DICKER DATA LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $8.33

Petra Capital rates ((DDR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital lowers earnings forecasts for Dicker Data for FY24-26 to reflect recent data for PC sales globally and small and medium business insolvencies across Australia and New Zealand.

The broker reckons while near-term headwinds persist from elevated inventories, bad debts and interest rates, the company will remain competitive in high-growth IT markets.

Target price lowered to $10.42 from $10.71, Buy retained.

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $10.42 Current Price is $8.33 Difference: $2.09
If DDR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.57, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.50 cents and EPS of 43.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of -1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.50 cents and EPS of 52.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $6.55

Jarden rates ((DTL)) as Overweight (2) –

Data#3 announced changes by Microsoft to its partner incentive program would in isolation reduce its FY24 profit by about -3% but it is not to be interpreted as a forecast.

Jarden expects the changes to be immaterial to FY25 and notes Data#3 has a strong track record of mitigation strategy by identifying such changes early and taking advantage. 

Still, the analyst is cautious about the speed of mitigation and cuts FY25-27 profit estimates by -5%.The target price is lowered to $8.25 from $8.54. Overweight rating remains.

This report was published on December 16, 2024.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $1.7
If DTL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 32.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMR    EMERALD RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.54

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Emerald Resources’ updated resource report from stage 2 drilling at the Memot Gold Project met its expectations.

The company reported a 120% increase in contained ounces from the previous estimate in December 2023, including 68% of resource estimate in the “Indicated” category.

The broker now sees an opportunity for a standalone mine and not the trucking of a partially processed concentrate from Memot to Okvau mine for further refinement.

Buy rating stays and target price remains at $5.00.

This report was published on December 13, 2024.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $1.46
If EMR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $4.57

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes phase 1 first titanium production from Iperionx’s Virginia facility “reportedly” remains on track for the first production by the end of December.

The broker has updated modelling to include a capacity increase to 2,000 tonnes per annum by mid-2026 and progressively to 10,000 tonnes by late 2031. This compares with the prior assumption of a maximum 4,000 tonnes from 2028. 

Target raised to $6.65 from $4.65 on the back of an increase in modelled production capacity. Rating stays at Speculative Buy.

This report was published on December 16, 2024.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $4.57 Difference: $2.08
If IPX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 228.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 152.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MEI)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity recently visited Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira project in Brazil, concluding the key project work streams are all on track.

The pre-feasibility study is due in the second half of FY25 and the broker expects key areas of optimisation to revolve around project capital. The scoping estimate was -US$403m, including contingencies of -US$106m.

The broker comments the project has strong government support. Speculative Buy and 40c target retained.

This report was published on December 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.318
If MEI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 388% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 290.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEK    MEEKA METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.08

Petra Capital rates ((MEK)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes an expanded definitive feasibility study (DFS) at Meeka Metals’ Murchison Gold Project, located in Western showed a 40% increase in potential gold output from the mine in years 1-7 and an increase in peak year production to 75koz from 55koz.

Key timelines are unchanged with plant commissioning targeted for mid-2025 and first gold in Q3 of 2025. However, factoring in higher operating and capital expenditure has resulted in a slight lowering of the target price.

Buy rating stays and new target price is down to 14c from 15c.

This report was published on December 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.06
If MEK meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.22.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MMS    MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $14.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MMS)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity made modest changes to McMillan Shakespeare’s FY25-27 earnings estimates but cut the target price significantly due to reduced multiples and a -12% discount to valuation.

The broker says valuations are becoming compelling but industry, macro and company-specific uncertainties are preventing a more positive view.

Looking ahead, the broker reckons a stronger and more certain earnings outlook would attract sufficient interest to re-rate the stock materially upwards.

The target falls to $14.70 from $18.50..

This report was published on December 13, 2024.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $14.40 Difference: $0.3
If MMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.17, suggesting upside of 40.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 141.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.9, implying annual growth of 19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 143.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.5, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 149.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OML)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity comments the earnings guidance from oOh!media’s FY24 trading update was in line with market expectations, though revenue was a touch lower. 

The top end of the earnings range proved lower than Canaccord Genuity’s estimate, resulting in a downward revision to both earnings and revenue.  

The broker notes the company has lost share in the Australia and New Zealand markets in the past 30 months but sees opportunity to regain a good part of this over the next two years.

The Auckland Transport contract will, however, continue to overhand the stock, the broker believes. Buy rating and $1.90 target price unchanged.

This report was published on December 16, 2024.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.73
If OML meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 42.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.28 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 54.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.16 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPT    OPTHEA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.65

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OPT)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on Opthea with a Buy rating and target price of $1.25.

In the broker’s view, the company’s biologic inhibitor (OPT-302)  for neovascular age-related macular degeneration addresses a material unmet need in a large patient population.

The broker assesses a market of 500,000 patients in the US alone, assuming phase 3 which is due for launch in mid-2027, reads similarly to phase 2.

Canaccord anticipates first commercial revenue in mid-2027 from the drug’s exclusive launch in the US and has incorporated peak sales of US$1.2bn in 2035 in its forecasts.

The broker reckons there’s an upside potential of over $3.0 to the share price, excluding licensing opportunities outside US jurisdictions.

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.6
If OPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.83.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNR    PANTORO LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.09

Petra Capital rates ((PNR)) as Buy (1) –

Following Pantoro’s release of drilling results at the Scotia underground mine, Petra Capital notes the company’s goal during 2025 is to extend mineralisation in the mine’s southern zone by 200-300 metres — same as the northern zone.

Success here has the potential to effectively double the ounces of gold per vertical line in the mine, allowing an increase in production, the broker says.

Petra has retained the target price at 18c but notes at the spot gold price of $4,163, the target price becomes 28c.

Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on December 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.088
If PNR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.75.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.68.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR    PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.54

Jarden rates ((PWR)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Peter Warren Automotive’s 1H guidance proved well below both Jarden’s and consensus forecast, prompting the broker to downgrade earnings estimate and target price.

The company revealed new car revenue and margins have been adversely affected by lower demand and a significant oversupply of new vehicles in the market.

Jarden lowered the rating to Overweight (one step above Neutral) from Buy, on optimism that demand could get a boost from improvement in cost of living pressures, given the potential for interest rate cuts in 2025.

Also, while oversupply could drive further gross margin compression, Jarden expects management initiatives to offset further headwinds going forward.

New target price down to $1.90 from $2.10.

This report was published on December 12, 2024.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.36
If PWR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of -49.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 31.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((PWR)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis notes Peter Warren Automotive’s 1H25 trading update was substantially weaker than expected, with demand pressures further exacerbated by a mismatch in the supply of model types relative to consumer demand.

The broker observes gross profit margins are tracking below prior cyclical lows and there’s a risk of further compression from medium-term structural headwinds from a growing number of Chinese original equipment manufacturers entering the Australian market.

In response to the possibility of the company being an M&A target, the broker’s view is that while current industry headwinds are likely to persist, the company’s property portfolio is providing a valuation floor.

Hold rating retained. Target price $1.55.

This report was published on December 12, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.01
If PWR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of -49.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 31.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.38

Canaccord Genuity rates ((S32)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity regards the WA Environment Minister’s decision on its appeal process for the life extension of the Worsley Alumina business unit as positive. 

Canaccord Genuity notes South32 will likely avoid significant carbon dioxide mitigation costs that would have threatened the viability of the asset.

But because the broker didn’t assume immediate cessation of mining activities at Worsley, the decision has no impact on its numbers.

No change to Sell rating. Target price remains at $2.35.

This report was published on December 13, 2024.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 21.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.75 cents and EPS of 10.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.24 cents and EPS of 11.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.3, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ    SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $7.76

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SIQ)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reckons the outlook for novated leasing becomes less clear from 2H25 as the boom from the fringe benefit exemption on electric vehicles fades.

The broker sees potential offsets from this outlook for Smartgroup Corp from a likely increase in sales from broader overall novated lease awareness.

Other positives include further excess order-book unwind and cost investment measures that would create a more efficient and scalable business.

Overall, the broker continues to expect double-digit earnings growth aided by the South Australian government contract win and margin expansion.

Canaccord Genuity lowered its target price to $8.50, after lowering earnings estimates. Buy rating remains.

This report was published on December 13, 2024.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $0.74
If SIQ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting upside of 26.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.5, implying annual growth of 10.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR    SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.18

Jarden rates ((SYR)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden is reviewing the impact of Syrah Resources’ declaration of force majeure at the Balama mine in Mozambique that’s triggered default events on two debt facilities.

Jarden notes it’s unclear whether the second loan disbursement of US$47m on US International Development Finance Corp’s US$150m loan facility remains available to Syrah. The other debt facility is a fully-drawn US$102m from the US Department of Energy.

The broker considers the best possible outcome for shareholders to be a rapid resolution with the lenders, leading to a waiver of the default clause.

The worst outcome would be a requirement to repay one or both debt facilities. The latter would prove challenging without additional funding, given Syrah’s last reported cash balance of US$113m.

Jarden lowers the target price to $0.30 from $0.57 and downgrades its rating to Neutral from Overweight.

This report was published on December 12, 2024.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.12
If SYR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 144.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $13.44

Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Transurban Group and its partners have no major issues with the NSW government’s draft in-principle agreement (IPA) on potential toll reforms.

While Jarden is pleased the NSW government has reiterated its commitment to respect existing contracts, it believes uncertainty around how this is achieved leaves an overhang on the share price.

According to the broker, among the options canvassed, potential toll reforms could include an extension of the $60 weekly toll cap and annual rebates beyond June 2025, distance-based or on/off-peak pricing structures, removal of 4% escalation on WestConnex, and increasing truck multipliers across concessions.

Next catalyst is the signing of the IPA, expected by December 31.

Target maintained at $12.30. Rating Neutral.

This report was published on December 15, 2024.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.52, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of 224.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 68.30 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.3, implying annual growth of 9.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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