Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 24-04-25

This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL

The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 21 to Friday April 25, 2025
Total Upgrades: 5
Total Downgrades: 1
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.80%; Hold 31.75%; Sell 6.45%

For the three business days ending Thursday, April 24, 2025, FNArena tracked five upgrades and just the one downgrade for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target price increases slightly outweighed declines, while the tables below show negative changes to average earnings forecasts were more common than positive moves, aside from material upgrades for Paladin Energy and Pilbara Minerals.

Ord Minnett acknowledged its prior downgrade to Paladin Energy’s earnings estimates following the disruption to the Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia due to a major rain event was overdone.

The broker was commenting after a solid third quarter beat versus consensus on all metrics. Production rose by 17% quarter-on-quarter to 0.745mlb U3O8, 20% above Citi’s forecast, while sales reached 0.872mlb, including 0.2mlb delivered from loan material, with a realised price of US$69.9/lb, well above the broker’s US$60/lb estimate.

UBS noted mine restart activities at Langer Heinrich are ahead of expectations, with a June/July restart likely, though ramp-up risks remain.

For Pilbara Minerals, the around 21% lift in the FY25 average earnings forecast was exaggerated by small forecast numbers.

Macquarie noted March quarter production and sales of 125kt each missed consensus by around -12%, with production falling -34% quarter-on-quarter due to Ngungaju transitioning to care and maintenance.

Ngungaju is one of two processing plants at Pilbara’s flagship Pilgangoora lithium operation in Western Australia.

Production and sales volumes were disrupted by P1000 project tie-ins and six days lost due to cyclone activity, explained Bell Potter.

The P1000 Project is a major expansion at Pilgangoora, which is designed to significantly boost the site’s production capacity of spodumene concentrate.

Operating costs across the company beat consensus, noted Citi, and management reiterated FY25 guidance across all metrics.

Morgans expects operational improvements to emerge in the June quarter and sees Pilbara Minerals as better positioned than peers due to its scale and long-term expansion strategy.

Insignia Financial received the largest increase in average target price, solely due to Ord Minnett resuming coverage with a $5.00 target, above the existing targets from three other brokers in the FNArena database.

On Wednesday last week, Insignia released its third quarter business update showing funds under management and administration (FUMA) of $321.8bn, broadly in line with the prior UBS forecast. The number was down -1.5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by -0.8% net outflows and -0.7% market impact.

Despite headline deterioration, Citi highlighted underlying flows were broadly flat quarter-on-quarter, once a large institutional redemption is excluded, supported by strong contributions from the MLC Expand platform and the workplace superannuation channel.

Ord Minnett, while acknowledging the result was not as weak as feared, maintained a Hold rating due to global uncertainty and the risk of a lower takeover offer.

Following a request from both Bain Capital Private Equity and CC Capital Partners, management has extended by four weeks the exclusivity period for the bidders to allow finalisation of debt funding and associated due diligence, but there is no certainty either proposal will result in any transaction being put to Insignia Financial for consideration.

Annuity and funds management provider Challenger’s average target price rose by nearly 6% last week after tightening FY25 profit guidance, which Citi sees as resilience amid volatile markets and a positive indicator for meeting return on equity targets.

For a further explanation of Challenger’s range of products and broker views on the company’s outlook see this week’s FNArena article at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/28/challengers-resilience-highlighted/

While AMP suffered a near -8% fall in average target after releasing its first quarter cashflows and business update, Macquarie and Citi upgraded their ratings to Buy (or equivalent) from Hold.

Macquarie lowered its target by -30 cents to $1.34 but upgraded the rating as the stocks two-year forward price-to-earnings multiple is currently trading around a -33% discount to peers. Citi pointed out first quarter flows were generally positive, and the stock has retreated a long way from its end-of-January highs.

The average target price for Perpetual also fell by around -4% last week following March quarter results after Macquarie cut its target to $15.44 from $19.74 on lower earnings forecasts and a lower ascribed valuation multiple.

Assets under management fell -4% to $221.2bn, driven by -$8.9bn in outflows and a -$0.9bn currency impact, partly offset by $0.7bn from positive market movements, explained Macquarie.

Outflows were mainly in global and US equities and cash, due to client mergers and reallocation/rebalancing and underperformance in some strategies, noted the broker, but management did not see any significant de-risking from clients in the period to March 31.

Following a FY25 trading update on April 17, Tourism Holdings received the largest negative revision (-8%) to broker earnings forecasts last week.

Management stated geopolitical tensions and tariff developments have weakened consumer confidence, particularly impacting rental revenue in the US and global vehicle sales.

As a result, the company has guided to FY25 profit below previous consensus of $45.2m due to lower expected rental revenue in the US and further deterioration in vehicles sales demand globally.

Management emphasised no requirement to raise equity because banking covenants are in a comfortable position.

Ord Minnett also noted the impact of Trump policy changes which has resulted in a material reduction in inbound visitors to the US from Europe and a reduction in consumer confidence.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.80% of the total, versus 31.75% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.45%.

Upgrade

ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED ((ALL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 7/0/0

UBS lowers its target for Aristocrat Leisure to $74.50 from $75.50 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral due to recent share price weakness and a view the business will be relatively more resilient in a weaker macroeconomic backdrop.

The broker’s forecasts currently do not assume any material impacts on margins from potential tariffs.

The analyst notes US gross gaming revenue (GGR) has traditionally been very resilient to economic downturns.

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Citi notes AMP’s 1Q25 flows were largely positive, but the stock faces headwinds from superannuation class action and uncertain equity markets, which would put pressure on assets under management and fees.

The broker cut EPS forecast for FY25 by -3% and for FY26 by -4%.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral on value opportunity. Target cut to $1.30 from $1.60.

The broker believes the 2c/share dividend guidance for each FY25 half reflects caution ahead of the class action in May.

Macquarie highlights AMP’s net flows improved in 1Q, with Platforms cash inflow of $740m, up strongly on a year earlier, and superannuation & investments net outflow of -$108m comparing well with -$371m in 4Q24.

The broker’s outlook for controllable costs is in line with the company’s guidance, but the FY25 estimate of $614m is -4% lower than consensus. Forecasts for net profit is, however, below consensus for FY25-28.

The analyst reckons any impact of the upcoming trial beginning May 26 may be covered by insurance and excess capital on the balance sheet. The stock’s valuation discount also covers this risk, the broker notes.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as the stock’s 2-year forward PE is around a -33% discount to peers. Target cut to $1.34 from $1.64.

MADER GROUP LIMITED ((MAD)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Bell Potter observes an increase in commodity production in the US following the elections and a rise in rail movements in North America, both important for Mader Group’s business and outlook. Partly offsetting these trends was weather events in key Australian regions that impacted mining activity.

The broker is now more confident in the company’s outlook for FY25, given 1H25 was weak, and believes it could also meet its aspirational FY26 revenue goal of at least $1.0bn.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target lifted to $6.70 from $6.50.

MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Monash IVF to Buy from Hold, with a target price set at $1.10, down from $1.25, following the -30% decline in the share price after the embryo mix-up at its Brisbane clinic last week and a wave of negative media coverage.

Unfortunately, this is not an isolated incident in the global IVF industry, the analyst explains, noting that since 1973, an estimated 60m IVF cycles have been performed, with 205 “severe” incidents documented, around 80% in the US, and embryo mix-ups accounting for approximately 75% of these incidents.

Some 76 legal suits with $4.4m in damages were the result. Despite this, US IVF cycles have expanded at over twice the rate of Australia’s over the last ten years, Ord Minnett explains.

The broker lowers FY26FY27 EPS estimates by -11% and -9%, respectively.

Downgrade

GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Genesis Minerals to Hold from Accumulate, with a target price set at $4.15 from $3.75.

The company announced a mixed quarterly report, according to the broker, with production better than forecast by 10%, offset by higher-than-anticipated costs, some 6% above forecast.

Genesis is tracking to exceed FY25 production guidance and all-in sustaining costs, with the broker stating possible upside of 5%, despite management retaining FY25 guidance.

With the stock up by 130% over the last 12 months, Ord Minnett envisages few reasons for the level of outperformance to continue.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=208,141,183,100,235,246,169,134&h0=119,136,158,108,183,139,26,172&s0=11,31,35,42,19,29,4,30″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

Broker Rating

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker Upgrade 1 AMP LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie 2 AMP LIMITED Buy Neutral Citi 3 ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED Buy Neutral UBS 4 MADER GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Bell Potter 5 MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED Buy Neutral Ord Minnett Downgrade 6 GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED Neutral Buy Ord Minnett

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs 1 IFL INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED 4.467 4.200 6.36% 3 2 CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED 7.351 6.947 5.82% 7 3 GMD GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED 4.217 4.017 4.98% 6 4 BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 6.378 6.148 3.74% 5 5 CMM CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED 8.790 8.480 3.66% 3 6 NST NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED 22.324 21.545 3.62% 7 7 ALQ ALS LIMITED 17.313 16.830 2.87% 4 8 ALX ATLAS ARTERIA 5.376 5.274 1.93% 5 9 PDN PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED 8.379 8.279 1.21% 7 10 TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED 13.596 13.488 0.80% 5

Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs 1 AMP AMP LIMITED 1.432 1.552 -7.73% 5 2 PPT PERPETUAL LIMITED 19.498 20.358 -4.22% 5 3 NXT NEXTDC LIMITED 19.400 19.733 -1.69% 6 4 KAR KAROON ENERGY LIMITED 2.170 2.200 -1.36% 5 5 PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED 1.907 1.929 -1.14% 7 6 CPU COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED 38.668 38.985 -0.81% 6 7 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 3.842 3.858 -0.41% 6 8 CAR CAR GROUP LIMITED 41.300 41.400 -0.24% 6 9 STO SANTOS LIMITED 7.658 7.675 -0.22% 6 10 LNW LIGHT & WONDER INC 202.200 202.600 -0.20% 5

Earnings Forecast

Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs 1 PDN PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED -2.809 -7.198 60.98% 7 2 PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED -0.317 -0.400 20.75% 7 3 LNW LIGHT & WONDER INC 617.600 603.880 2.27% 5 4 BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED 54.660 53.820 1.56% 5 5 CPU COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED 208.788 208.202 0.28% 6 6 TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED 32.400 32.325 0.23% 5 7 SEK SEEK LIMITED 41.836 41.776 0.14% 6 8 SM1 SYNLAIT MILK LIMITED 2.156 2.155 0.05% 3 9 GTK GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED 16.518 16.512 0.04% 3 10 FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED 55.429 55.409 0.04% 4

Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs 1 THL TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED 18.066 19.608 -7.86% 3 2 BHP BHP GROUP LIMITED 299.002 322.918 -7.41% 6 3 ALX ATLAS ARTERIA 32.933 34.933 -5.73% 5 4 S32 SOUTH32 LIMITED 27.592 29.247 -5.66% 6 5 KAR KAROON ENERGY LIMITED 21.163 22.312 -5.15% 5 6 CGF CHALLENGER LIMITED 57.767 60.480 -4.49% 7 7 STO SANTOS LIMITED 51.774 52.805 -1.95% 6 8 ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED 262.800 266.833 -1.51% 7 9 CBO COBRAM ESTATE OLIVES LIMITED 11.900 12.033 -1.11% 3 10 IFL INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED 36.967 37.333 -0.98% 3

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