In Brief: Sigma, Domino’s, Clarity & SiteMinder

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GLP-1 weight loss medications are set to impact on Australian retailers, while a small biotech is making strides in proving up its drugs, and hotel management SaaS grows.

-Australians embracing GLP-1 weight loss drugs boost pharmacy sales
-GLP-1 popularity might be a negative for Quick Service sector
-Clarity looking to punch above its weight in cancer detection drugs
-SiteMinder is adding value via new transaction services

By Danielle Ecuyer

Welcome back to In Brief with the quote of the week from Amundi:

“Global growth forecasts have taken a hit since the beginning of 2025 and the uncertainty about US trade tariffs will likely persist. We think tariffs will hurt growth more than boost inflation and imply higher real interest rates.

“Our base-case scenario is that policy uncertainty will subside over time, allowing for a more orderly relocation of supply chains with the average US tariff rate 15 percentage points higher than before the current administration took office. Global growth decelerates without major setbacks.”

GLP-1s: changing consumer habits

Thus far the market narrative on the possible impact of GLP-1 drugs has very much focused on companies like ResMed ((RMD)) in treating sleep apnea via weight loss, but the US experience suggests impacts can be far more broad-reaching.

Australia currently has around 300k monthly users of GLP-1 drugs, which is just under 1.5% of the population and up from 0.6% in 2022.

In the US, the percentage currently sits at circa 6% of the population, with data-collector Nielsen noting 31% of Australians are likely to use the drug versus 27% in the US market, which suggests a lot more upside in the uptake.

Jarden’s deep dive into the impacts of Australians taking GLP-1 medication on retailers is quite eye-opening.

For weight loss, the drug is not under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and can cost up to around $300 per month, prescribed by a doctor. Once on the drug, the US experience reveals changing consumer habits.

Summarising the key impacts on retail in Australia, the analysis found the following:

-With an estimated 66% of Australians who are overweight, or 14.1m adults, there is potential for over $2.4bn in prescription sales and over $700m for vitamins and supplements as GLP-1 drug consumption rises. The GLP-1 medication can cause loss of muscle mass, which the analyst suggests will drive demand for supplements such as Vitamin D, Calcium, Magnesium, Iron, B vitamins, and Omega-3 fatty acids, which support improved health.

Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) is highlighted as the best positioned to benefit, as it is a top destination for consumers buying supplements. Around 45% of people purchase supplements at Chemist Warehouse, compared to other pharmacies at 23% and supermarkets at 28%. Jarden estimates Sigma can gain around $320m in sales.

Ebos Group ((EBO)) and Wesfarmers ((WES)) are also indirectly likely to benefit.

There may also be some structural impacts to alcohol retailers from reduced consumption, affecting Endeavour Group ((EDV)) and Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)). Supermarkets are considered a net neutral, including Coles Group ((COL)), Metcash ((MTS)), and Woolworths Group ((WOW)), although an ongoing shift to Sigma and Wesfarmers is not out of the question.

-Other positive impacts include a shift to smaller clothing sizes and an increase in exercise. GLP-1 users are more likely to go to the gym, which Jarden believes has a possible positive flow-on impact for sports clothing and equipment retailers, such as Super Retail Group ((SUL)).

Lululemon’s CEO has highlighted a shift in shopping trends, with the brand selling out of smaller sizes (XXS, XS) and higher sales in the Small and Medium categories, which is attributed to higher GLP-1 usage.

-Spending at Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) is expected to fall, with the US experience revealing GLP-1 users spend around -61% less on takeout/delivery and -63% less on restaurants. With adult Australians spending around $1,130 per annum on QSR, if GLP-1 share moves to 4.5% of the population, then Jarden estimates QSR spend declines by about -40%.

Out of the listed stock coverage, the analysis points at Domino’s Pizza Enterprises ((DMP)) as potentially the most under threat, followed by Collins Foods ((CKF)) via KFC, and less so for Guzman y Gomez ((GYG)) due to an increasing focus on healthier meal choices.

Jarden has a Buy rating with a $3.30 target price for Sigma; Ebos is Overweight rated with a NZ$41.50 target; Wesfarmers receives an Underweight rating and $73.10 target price.

Super Retail is Overweight rated with a $14.80 target; Collins Foods is Overweight rated with a $9.95 target; Domino’s was recently downgraded to Neutral from Overweight with a $37 target; and Guzman y Gomez was initiated with an Overweight rating and $35.10 target price.

An Overweight rating refers to the level of suggested exposure relative to the stock’s index weighting, which is higher in this instance.

For more information on Sigma, check out https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/19/sigma-healthcare-synergies-margins-in-focus/

No lack of enthusiasm for Clarity Pharmaceuticals

Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6)) is an Australian clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing next-generation radiopharmaceuticals for the diagnosis and treatment of cancer.

Using its proprietary SAR technology platform, Clarity creates Targeted Copper Theranostics (TCTs) that combine diagnostic imaging and targeted therapy in a single drug. These agents use copper-based isotopesCopper-64 for PET imaging and Copper-67 for delivering precise radiation therapy.

Clarity’s lead programs include SAR-bisPSMA for prostate cancer, SAR-Bombesin for PSMA-negative prostate cancer cases, and Sartate and SAR-trastuzumab for neuroendocrine and breast cancers, respectively.

The company’s goal is to improve cancer detection and treatment by offering safer, more effective, and highly targeted alternatives to conventional therapies, especially for patients who do not benefit from current options.

As highlighted by Canaccord Genuity, it has been a busy time for the small-cap biotech ($6m sales in H1, $700m market cap), which announced successful Phase II results for 64Cu-Sartate and 64Cu-SAR-Bombesin, and a manufacturing agreement with SpectronRx for production of 400k patient uses of 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA per annum, which can be distributed across all 50 US states.

Canaccord flags 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA will be on the market by FY27, with commercial agreements suggesting the drug has the potential to be best-in-class.

The SpectronRx agreement allows for estimated peak sales of US$520m for 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA in FY35 on 110k doses post-FY35, which is well below SpectronRx’s anticipated production capacity.

The analyst forecasts Clarity will be able to take a 20% share of a US$2.6bn market in the US, which would conservatively place it as the fifth product to come into the market with US$520m in peak sales.

Should Clarity be able to achieve and prove a best-in-class product, the market share could be as high as 30%40%, the broker explains, based on the availability of 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA and doctors prioritising it.

Wilsons also detailed the latest Sabre results, noting the Sabre trial tested Clarity Pharmaceuticals’ new imaging agent, 64Cu-SAR-Bombesin, in 53 prostate cancer patients who were thought to be cancer-free because standard scans, including PSMA PET, CT, or MRI, showed no signs of disease.

These patients were given a scan using the new agent, and results were checked at two time points: a few hours after injection and about a day later.

The goal was to see how well this new scan could detect prostate cancer that standard scans might miss. It turned out about one-third of patients did have detectable cancer lesions, mostly in the lymph nodes and prostate area, even though standard imaging showed nothing. Some of these patients had very low PSA levels, meaning they weren’t expected to show disease.

Importantly, while the measured detection rates and predictive accuracy might seem modest (for example, a 35% detection rate), this was partly because many new lesions couldn’t be confirmed by biopsy, they were assumed false unless proven otherwise, which underestimates how well the scan worked. Still, in the few cases where biopsies were done, all confirmed cancer.

Clarity believes these results are strong enough to move forward with a larger Phase III trial, much like they did after a similar earlier study called Cobra. The new trial will be designed using lessons from both past studies and from other successful prostate cancer imaging trials.

Wilsons notes no changes to earnings forecasts, with the 64/67Cu-SAR-Bombesin program representing around 20% of the risk-adjusted target price of $8.25 (or $1.65) with an Overweight rating.

Canaccord Genuity is Buy rated with a $6.74 target price.

The software-as-a-service company shaking up hotel management, globally

Moelis is the latest to initiate coverage of SiteMinder ((SDR)), highlighting the company has achieved substantial progress since the 2021 IPO with growth in subscriber numbers of 45.7%.

By adding new transactional services, SiteMinder has advanced transaction revenues at a compound average growth rate of around 60% p.a. over three years; these now represent circa one-third of total revenue.

The momentum is anticipated to be maintained, if not grow, vis-a-vis the start of Smart Platform.

The analyst details how transaction services enhance customer relationships, with management pointing to the lifetime value of a customer now more than an estimated $27k, with the upfront cost of acquiring new customers at below $4,500.

Some 47k hotels now employ SiteMinder’s platform, which enables those hotels to manage inventory over online channels, including 125m room reservations and $80bn of transaction value.

The data generated assist with management’s growth strategy of aligning more services to each subscriber, as well as growing the subscriber base.

Moelis emphasises the company’s SaaS and financial performance continues to improve across metrics and rates the stock as a Buy with a $6.19 target price.

More more information on Site Minder, check out https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/18/smart-platform-underpins-siteminder-optimism/

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