Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 17, 2025

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            [1] => ((ANZ))
            [2] => ((AQZ))
            [3] => ((BC8))
            [4] => ((CEN))
            [5] => ((CYG))
            [6] => ((DUG))
            [7] => ((DUG))
            [8] => ((IGO))
            [9] => ((LRK))
            [10] => ((MM8))
            [11] => ((MM8))
            [12] => ((GNG))
            [13] => ((OBM))
            [14] => ((PME))
            [15] => ((PNI))
            [16] => ((MQG))
            [17] => ((MXT))
            [18] => ((REG))
            [19] => ((SBM))
            [20] => ((SYA))
            [21] => ((TPG))
            [22] => ((VAU))
            [23] => ((WEB))
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            [3] => BC8
            [4] => CEN
            [5] => CYG
            [6] => DUG
            [7] => DUG
            [8] => IGO
            [9] => LRK
            [10] => MM8
            [11] => MM8
            [12] => GNG
            [13] => OBM
            [14] => PME
            [15] => PNI
            [16] => MQG
            [17] => MXT
            [18] => REG
            [19] => SBM
            [20] => SYA
            [21] => TPG
            [22] => VAU
            [23] => WEB
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)

This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALL   ANZ   AQZ   BC8   CEN   CYG   DUG (2)   IGO   LRK   MM8 (2)   OBM   PME   PNI   REG   SBM   SYA   TPG   VAU   WEB  

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $68.68

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Neutral (3) –

Aristocrat Leisure has announced more executive changes, with Citi highlighting the departure of Interactive head Moti Malul and Chief Corporate Affairs Officer Natalie Toohey.

Both roles have been filled externally, with Malul’s earlier-than-expected exit raising questions for the broker on CEO succession. Strategy is expected to remain unchanged, focusing on US state expansion and improving first-party content.

Toohey is succeeded by Barry French, whose broader role points to greater marketing emphasis, suggest the analysts.

Citi sees Aristocrat’s R&D spend supporting share gains but maintains a Neutral rating and $69.00 target price.

This report was published on September 12, 2025.

Target price is $69.00 Current Price is $68.68 Difference: $0.32
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.09, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 251.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.1, implying annual growth of 19.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 284.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 275.6, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $32.78

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes ANZ Bank is paying -$240m penalty to ASIC after settling five non-financial risk management matters across markets and retail banking. 

Separately, the broker notes the bank’s MD for markets left, effectively immediately, and the chief risk officer was transferred to the position of MD for institutional capital management.

The broker also highlights three key changes since CEO Nuno Matos joined the bank on 12 May, including leadership changes, regulatory settlement, and job cuts.

Overall, the broker’s view is Matos’ reset is bold, but credibility will hinge on sustainable revenue growth alongside cost discipline. This also means consensus upgrades are possible if the ambitious targets are set and delivered.

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -3% to reflect the ASIC penalty.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $30.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $32.78 Difference: minus $2.78 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.74, suggesting downside of -9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 220.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.3, implying annual growth of -0.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 232.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.2, implying annual growth of 4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.25

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) –

Alliance Aviation Services’ FY25 result (on August 20) was in line with guidance, though Wilsons notes outlook commentary has driven a recalibration of forecasts and a shift in valuation focus toward yield and net tangible assets (NTA).

The broker reduces operating fleet assumptions, pointing to a more subdued medium-term earnings profile.

Management expects ongoing contract growth in WA and QLD, the first full year of Qantas wet lease operations, and continued focus on cost control. Additional charter activity and aviation services transactions are also being pursued.

Reduced flying should be partially offset by stronger aviation services in FY26, explain the analysts.

The target price is cut to $2.58 from $3.89, with the assumed price earnings ratio lowered to reflect reduced growth. Wilsons notes Alliance still offers an attractive FY27 dividend yield.

This report was published on September 17, 2025.

Target price is $2.58 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.33
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 35.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.41.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.20

Petra Capital rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1) –

Black Cat Syndicate has started a 6,000m diamond drilling program at its Mt Clement antimony deposit with the aim to infill and extend the current resource.

Petra Capital notes another two circa 800m diamond holes will test down-dip extensions at depth, which are co-funded by the WA government’s Exploration Incentive Scheme grant of $175,000.

Commentary highlights antimony is increasingly being viewed as a critical mineral. The assay results for Paulsens West are due in September and the Mt Clement assay results in the December quarter.

Buy rating and $1.80 target retained.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.605
If BC8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.76.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CEN    CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.28

Jarden rates ((CEN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights implied EBITDA in Contact Energy’s August operating data was NZ$90m, higher than its forecast of NZ$87m.

This was driven by higher geothermal/hydro, stronger retail and commercial & industrial netbacks, and lower generation costs.

The broker retained FY26 forecast for NZ$948m EBITDA.

Overweight. Target unchanged at NZ$10.86.

This report was published on September 15, 2025.

Current Price is $8.28. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 36.48 cents and EPS of 28.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.83.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 38.30 cents and EPS of 30.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.18.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYG    COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.68

Petra Capital rates ((CYG)) as Buy (1) –

Coventry Group has announced a 2-for-7 non-renounceable entitlement offer to raise up to $20m, with the proceeds going to reducing debt and working capital.

Petra Capital notes all directors and major shareholders have committed to take up their entitlements, and the issue is dilutive, resulting in the target price falling to $1.02 from $1.24, with Buy rating maintained.

The FY26 trading update suggests year-to-date revenue and earnings (EBITDA) of $65.2m and $1.6m, respectively, up to August, which is below the run rate of $1.6m/month needed to meet current guidance of over $20m in earnings (EBITDA).

The analyst highlights a wet month in August and the changes in staff incentives yet to be introduced. Some $10m in cost savings were also identified by management, outside of guidance.

No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.02 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.34
If CYG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.82.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.53

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1) –

The value of Dug Technology’s Petronas contract has increased to US$43.3m from US$23.8m, with US$30.1m payable to Dug over three years and the remainder to partner Cegal.

Citi notes higher capital commitments but favourable payment terms, with asset financing expected.

The broker sees Petronas becoming a key client, validating the company’s imaging and workflow offerings. Growth opportunities are thought to remain across regions such as Brazil and the Middle East and through products including Cool, Nomad, and Software.

Citi raises its target price to $2.90 from $2.55 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.37
If DUG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.56.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Wilsons rates ((DUG)) as Overweight (1) –

Dug Technology has expanded its Petronas contract, with total value lifted to at least US$43.3m from US$23.8m. Wilsons believes the deal validates the company’s compute and software stack, particularly elastic MP-FWI.

Wilsons estimates net revenue of circa US$10m per year and earnings (EBITDA) of circa US$8m annually, compared to the US$15m of earnings delivered last year.

The initial three-year term includes an option to extend for two more years, with commissioning in 1Q 2026 and interim phases in 2025.

Wilsons lifts its target multiple above peers, and raises its target price to $2.86 from $2.35, retaining an Overweight rating. With the seismic analysis industry likely at a trough, the broker sees risk skewed to the upside.

This report was published on September 17, 2025.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.33
If DUG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 72.29.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $4.70

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden questions IGO Ltd’s direction given cumulative impairments of around -$2.3bn over the past five years. Nova is set to close in late 2026, while Cosmos is now an exploration property, leaving limited operated assets, highlight the analysts.

Jarden expects dividends to flow from Greenbushes during FY26 and FY27, though losses of around -$200m at Kwinana will likely offset this. With corporate and exploration costs each around -$40m, Jarden sees material cash generation in FY26 as unlikely.

Inorganic growth options are constrained, suggests the broker, with the Managing Director sceptical on acquisitions and lithium deals complicated by TLEA arrangements, 

Jarden forecasts a FY26 loss of -$28m. Overweight. Target eases to $4.84 from $4.88.

This report was published on September 12, 2025.

Target price is $4.84 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $0.14
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 114.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 396.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 1400.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LRK    LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.81

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LRK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Lark Distilling Co has announced a CEO transition, with Stuart Gregor, co-founder of Four Pillars Gin, to take over on January 1, 2026.

Canaccord Genuity views Gregor as well suited to drive international growth after the Lark brand restage. Current CEO Sash Sharma will depart at year-end 2025 after embedding the go-to-market model.

The business is supported by $23m net cash, a 2.5m litre whisky bank, and the ability to scale production more than fivefold, explains the broker. Positive operating cash flow is expected in FY27.

Canaccord Genuity highlights the brand “restage”, including 700ml bottling and broader channels, as key to expansion. Shipments begin in Asia in 1H26, with domestic and travel retail in 2H26, and a global launch in April 2026 expected to accelerate sales.

The analysts retain a Speculative Buy rating and a $1.34 target price.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.53
If LRK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.50.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.25.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MM8    MEDALLION METAL LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.47

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MM8)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Management at Medallion Metal has secured a secondary ball mill for the Cosmic Boy Concentrator, enabling circa 650ktpa throughput on Ravensthorpe sulphide feed.

Canaccord Genuity sees this news as a key de-risking milestone, with fabrication and shipping timelines supporting first production in March 2027.

The broker also highlights an upgraded sulphide resource of 0.95moz gold equivalent at 5.2g/t, with 58% of gold in the Indicated category to strengthen mine plan confidence. The feasibility study is due October 2025.

Total Ravensthorpe resources now stand at 1.1moz at 3.3g/t gold and 46kt copper, with further upside from extensions to be drilled in late 2025, suggest the analysts.

Speculative Buy and 80c target maintained.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.325
If MM8 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Petra Capital rates ((MM8)) as Buy (1) –

Medallion Metals has ordered a new secondary ball mill to support the production timetable.

Petra Capital notes no price was offered, but it is under an agreement with GR Engineering Services ((GNG)) and will operate at Cosmic Bay Concentrator to facilitate throughput at a 625ktpa rate.

Management continues to aim for first gold production in early 2027. The analyst raises the price target to 63c from 49c, with no change in Buy rating.

This report was published on September 17, 2025.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.155
If MM8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 79.17.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.93.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.98

Moelis rates ((OBM)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Moelis downgrades its rating for Ora Banda Mining to Hold from Buy, citing the recent share price rally has eroded valuation upside despite encouraging exploration results and resource additions. The target is increased to 88c from 85c.

The analyst highlights spot price sensitivity could imply valuation near $1.10 per share, though also points out shorter mine life versus peers increases risk. 

While remaining positive on geological potential, Moelis stresses exploration requires time and success is not assured. 

This report was published on September 15, 2025.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: minus $0.105 (current price is over target).
If OBM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.07.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $300.93

Moelis rates ((PME)) as Hold (3) –

Pro Medicus plans to launch a Visage pathology solution by end-2025, with Moelis highlighting the move as a step towards enterprise imaging.

Only a fraction of pathology is digital today, explains the broker, and while test volumes are large, it’s expected the market opportunity will remain smaller than radiology.

Pathology revenues are not included in the analyst’s forecasts, with FY26 estimates trimmed for slower ramp-up of large contracts and a cautious view on new wins.

The broker sees pathology as incremental growth, while Pro Medicus continues to trade on a valuation premium supported by strong management, strategy, and passive inflows. Moelis retains a Hold rating and $325.82 target.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $325.82 Current Price is $300.93 Difference: $24.89
If PME meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $300.27, suggesting upside of 1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 151.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 198.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.6, implying annual growth of 38.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 193.3.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 193.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 155.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 202.0, implying annual growth of 32.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 146.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $18.59

Jarden rates ((PNI)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden does not view the recent Lonsec downgrade of Metrics’ funds and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) halting new superannuation investments on its Wrap platform as fundamentally undermining the investment thesis for Pinnacle Investment Management.

The announcements pose headwinds with risks to retail and wholesale flows, the analyst highlights, although the Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT)) and the Direct Income Fund are still rated “recommended”, the second highest investment rating possible.

Metrics represents circa 14% of Pinnacle’s total FUM and around 12% of organic FUM growth in FY25.

Jarden estimates circa $3.5-$4bn of net flows for Metrics in FY25, or 15% of the group, with 15% derived from retail. The analyst estimates a circa -1% impact to FY26 net profit after tax for every -$1.5bn of less flow to Metrics over the period.

No change to Overweight rating and $25.40 target.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $18.59 Difference: $6.81
If PNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.03, suggesting upside of 36.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 71.30 cents and EPS of 69.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.9.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 82.30 cents and EPS of 80.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of 19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG    REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $9.12

Jarden rates ((REG)) as Overweight (2) –

The aged care industry was waiting for the AN-ACC pricing decision and received a surprise with the 42% topping up of the supplement effective September 20, Jarden notes.

The supplement was last updated in July when it was increased by 14% to $15.60/day, and the latest rise takes it to $22.15/day. The AN-ACC itself is set to increase by a further 4.7% from Oct 1 to $295.64/day, though this was lower than the broker and industry’s expectations.

Still, the broker regards the funding change as positive, lifting FY26 EPS forecast by 5.5% and FY27 by 6.8%.

Overweight. Target rises to $8.95 from $8.30.

This report was published on September 15, 2025.

Target price is $8.95 Current Price is $9.12 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If REG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.07.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 22.90 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM    ST. BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.47

Petra Capital rates ((SBM)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes the PNG Deputy Commissioner of Taxation has advised St. Barbara that it will revoke the previous tax assessments issued on December 24, with reissued assessments in coming weeks.

The analyst believes once the tax issue is resolved it will be a major de-risking event for the miner. At this stage, the analyst has not modeled for any tax changes until the update is provided.

Management estimates a tax assessment of just $26m after removing numerous errors.

No change to Buy rating and 68c target.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.205
If SBM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.59.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.90.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYA)) as Buy (1) –

Sayona Mining has implemented a share consolidation (reverse stock split). The consolidation ratio is 1-for-150, meaning every 150 Sayona shares held pre-consolidation will convert into 1 post-consolidation share.

Separately, Sayona Mining Ltd’s North American Lithium (NAL) scoping study supports an expansion to 2mtpa by 2030, notes Canaccord Genuity, lifting output to 315ktpa SC5.4 from 205kt in FY25.

Life-of-mine (LOM) cash costs are forecast at -US$562/t, down -35% from FY25, with -US$270m in capex covering crushing upgrades, a second concentrator, and storage, explain the analysts.

Strong balance sheet flexibility means expansion could be largely debt funded, while lithium prices above US$1,100/t SC6 would allow significant self-funding, highlights Canaccord.

FY26 guidance of 195-210kt at -US$765-830/t costs improves on the broker’s forecasts.

Canaccord Genuity raises its target price to $9.00 from $8.35  and maintains a Buy rating.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $8.98
If SYA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 44900% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.13.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.57.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPG    TPG TELECOM LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.94

Jarden rates ((TPG)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden notes TPG Telecom has underperformed excessively following energy, gas and water asset sales despite balance sheet and free float improvements.

A near-term overhang consists of minorities re-investing proceeds because that’s required to further reduce debt.

The broker expects around 224m new shares to be issued under the -$688m reinvestment plan, assuming there’s 100% take-up at a -5% discount.

At current levels, the broker highlights the implied forecast free cash flow yields of 6.5-10.3% in FY26–28 are attractive, supporting an upgrade to Overweight from Neutral.

Target trimmed to $5.25 from $5.30.

This report was published on September 15, 2025.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $0.31
If TPG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.66

Moelis rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Vault Minerals Ltd has released its annual Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve (MROR) update, with Moelis noting global ore reserves rose 17% year-on-year to 592koz, supported by higher gold price assumptions.

Mount Monger increased 9% to 50koz, Sugar Zone rose 20% to 64koz, while Deflector fell -27% to 72koz. Global resources declined slightly, and FY26 exploration spend was set at -$30m.

FY26 guidance remains outstanding. The analyst’s forecasts assume 358koz of production at costs (AISC) of -$2,690/oz, delivering an expected $310m cash addition by June 2026 at spot prices.

Free cash flow yields of 9% and 20% are forecast for FY26 and FY27, respectively.

The broker suggests further upside is possible if gold prices hold. Moelis retains a Buy rating and a $0.67 target price.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.66 Difference: $0.015
If VAU meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.60, suggesting downside of -7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.4, implying annual growth of 26.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.2, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $4.19

Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Web Travel’s AGM trading update confirmed to Wilsons a strong start to 1H26 slowed in June due to the Israel-Iran conflict. 

Positively, group total transaction value (TTV) to late August remained in the mid-teens, well ahead of competitor HBX Group’s 8% growth.

The analyst highlights the Americas with mid-20% TTV growth as the key driver.

Wilsons notes most guidance points were unchanged, with 1H26 TTV expected at “at least” $3.1bn and FY26 revenue/TTV confirmed at “at least” 6.5%. Currency translation effects provide a net 4% benefit.

Despite near-term caution, Wilsons sees Web Travel on track to deliver 19% earnings growth in FY26 and 17% CAGR to FY30, scaling toward its $10bn TTV target.

Wilsons trims its target price to $6.25 from $6.39 and retains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on September 16, 2025.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $2.06
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.98, suggesting upside of 43.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of -53.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 13.20 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 32.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don’t have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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