The Monday Report – 16 March 2026

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            [2] => ((ANZ))
            [3] => ((BHP))
            [4] => ((LIC))
            [5] => ((A1N))
            [6] => ((KMD))
            [7] => ((L1G))
            [8] => ((SGR))
            [9] => ((ANG))
            [10] => ((CCG))
            [11] => ((CMM))
            [12] => ((CNU))
            [13] => ((DTL))
            [14] => ((HUB))
            [15] => ((KCN))
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            [2] => ANZ
            [3] => BHP
            [4] => LIC
            [5] => A1N
            [6] => KMD
            [7] => L1G
            [8] => SGR
            [9] => ANG
            [10] => CCG
            [11] => CMM
            [12] => CNU
            [13] => DTL
            [14] => HUB
            [15] => KCN
            [16] => LTR
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This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ
The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Global markets continued to weaken on Friday with Brent crude rising above U$100bbl and ongoing question marks over the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ahead of tomorrow's RBA rates decision with markets pointing to a higher probability of a 25bps rate hike, ASX200 futures are signalling ongoing weakness to start the week.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 finished -233 points, -2.64%, lower last week at 8617, marking a second consecutive week of losses and leaving the index down -6.32% at the halfway mark for March. 

The local market has tracked the broader global pullback, driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and compounded by mounting expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift its official cash rate by 25bp this week.

Looking ahead, the key event on the economic calendar is Tuesday’s RBA Board meeting. At its last meeting in February, the RBA raised the official cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%. This was the first hike since November 2023 –coming just six months after its last cut— and underscored a rapid pivot back to tightening as resurgent inflation pressures became impossible to ignore.

Since the February meeting, domestic data has mostly come in firmer than expected across the labour market, inflation, and GDP. While household spending and house prices have shown some moderation, the Board confronts a difficult dilemma stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Global oil price shocks are, in principle, the type of supply-side event central banks try to look through. However, with inflation already above target, combined with last week’s sharp jump in inflation expectations and hawkish communication from Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, the RBA has limited room to manoeuvre.

Consequently, the Australian rates market is now pricing in around 17 basis points of hikes for this week’s Board meeting. This equates to roughly a 69% probability of a 25-basis point increase, which would lift the cash rate from its current 3.85% to 4.10%. 

Looking further out, the curve embeds approximately 73 basis points of cumulative tightening by the end of 2026. This aligns closely with expectations for three 25 basis point hikes in total this year, which would push the cash rate to 4.60%—its highest level since October 2011.

Tony Sycamore, IG, extract

NAB Markets Today Research extract

Markets finished up at the end of last week with little ground for optimism towards an early cessation of military assaults by either side in the Iran war or for an early re-opening of the Straits of Hormuz, oil prices back above US$100 for Brent crude and driving market behaviour across all asset classes. 

Deteriorating risk sentiment dominated AUD price formation to see AUD/USD pulled back down through 0.70 for the third time since the war began, while broad based USD strength sees USD/JPY nudging closer to YEN160, levels above which we saw BoJ intervention back in 2024. 

Developments over the weekend, while no more disconcerting than at the end of last week, don’t offer any obvious pretext for a less pessimistic start to the new trading week. On Saturday, President Trump on NBC said he’s not ready to make a deal with Iran while claiming it wants to negotiate a ceasefire (which Iran has denied) saying the terms are ‘not yet good enough’ and claims he’s ‘not concerned’ gas prices will affect this November’s mid-terms elections.

US data didn’t go completely unnoticed Friday, despite the preoccupation with the Iran conflict and oil prices. Q4 GDP growth was revised down from 1.4%q/q, to just 0.7%q/q. 

The main driver of the revision was a drag from net trade to -0.2% versus a 0.1%-point boost in the initial report. Water under the bridge maybe, but more revealing January real personal consumer spending was up just 0.1%m/m and has averaged that meagre pace for the past 3 months. 

Q4 consumption growth was revised down from 2.4%q/q, to 2%. The core PCE deflator rose by 0.36% for the second straight month, in line with expectations (0.4%) and has now been 3.1% on both the last 12-months and a 3m/3m annualised basis.

Elsewhere on the US data front, January’s JOLTS job openings rose to 6,946K in January, from 6,550K in December, above the consensus, 6,750K and back roughly to where they were in September 2024, though on a trend basis look very slightly softer. 

The Quits Rate at a low 2% was also unchanged on December and where it was back in September 2024. 

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 55.5 from 56.6, supported by a lift in current conditions from 56.6 to 57.8, though expectations dropped by a bigger than expected -2.5 points to 54.1.

5-10-year inflation expectations fell to 3.2% from 3.4% and 1yr expectations held at 3.4% against 3.7% expected –- though too soon to capture the full impact of the March jump in oil and hence gasoline prices.

Durable goods orders were weaker than expected with capital goods orders ex-defence ex-aircraft flat against 0.5% expected.

Staying in North America, Canada’s Feb labour report was unequivocally weak, the unemployment rate up 0.2% to 6.7% (flat on a trend basis since late 2024) and employment falling -84k m/m. Canadian money markets go into this week’s Boc meeting with 2bps of rate cuts priced, out from 1bp prior to the labour market data. CPI is tonight.

In Europe, data mostly underwhelmed. UK January GDP was flat against the 0.2% consensus, which UK economic observers note leaves the level of GDP flat on seven months ago. Industrial production fell -0.1% in January against a rise of 0.2% expected.

Were it not for the war and its short-term inflation consequences, chances of a BoE rate cut this week would have risen further. As it is, no change seems most likely. Eurozone industrial production also (significantly) undershot forecasts, falling 1.5% against a 0.6% rise expected.

Data points also worth noting, in China and in front of today’s combined January-February activity readings, credit and money supply figures for February were on the strong side of expectations.

In markets, another sea of red across the equity spectrum and where European and Asia markets continue to fare worse, month to date, than the United States.

The S&P500 was down -0.6% on Friday, the IT sector faring worse down -1.3%, and the NASDAQ -0.9%, for month to date losses of -3.6% and -2.5% respectively. The -0.5% fall for the Eurostoxx50 Friday brings its March to date loss to -8.2%, and -0.4% fall for the FTSE-100 to -5.9%. The Nikkei is off -8.9% month-to-date and the ASX200 -6.3%.

AUD/USD made a low of 0.6980, closing the week on the lows for a loss of -0.7%.

In government bonds, the selloff in 10-year benchmarks continued Friday, ranging from 1.5bps for US treasuries to 5bps for UK gilts, bringing double digit yield gains for the week across all major markets. 

Bunds are up 12.3bps, US Treasuries up 13.8bps,  UK gilts 19.6bps and the Australian futures equivalent by 14.5bps.

The US curve steepened Friday but front-end yields fell on the negative risk sentiment/mostly poor data combo, 2s down -2.6bps but still 15.5bps up on the week. Fed Funds futures now have -15.5bps of cuts priced for September, out from -13bps on Thursday and -23.6bps for year-end out from -19bps Thursday.

In commodities gains of 3.1% for Brent crude and 2.7% for WTI brought weekly gains to 11.3% and 8.6% respectively. Iron ore curiously added 6% last week, but where rumours China’s buying monopsony, CMG, was about to further restrict steel mill purchases of some BHP grades looks to have been a factor (rush to secure supplies).

Elsewhere, fears of demand destruction from an oil price induced slowdown in global demand dominated, with base metals all lower seeing the LMEX index down -2% though off only -1% on the week.

Gold lost -1.25% on Friday and -1.9% on the week.

Oil Volatility And Historical Market Impacts, Lance Roberts, The Bull Bear Report, extract

The S&P500 extended its losing streak to three consecutive weeks, the first such run in roughly a year. The convergence of geopolitical shock, private credit stress, and deteriorating economic data gave investors little reason to buy the dip.

On Monday, the market stumbled as oil surged past US$100 per barrel. That came after Israeli strikes on Iranian oil depots over the weekend were met with Tehran’s throttling of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI did pull back after President Trump signaled the conflict was nearing its end, triggering the S&P500’s best single-session gain in a month.

Markets, however, didn’t believe the all-clear. By Thursday, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared the Strait should remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy”, renewing the selloff.

However, as we will discuss today, the oil shock is only a catalyst for an ongoing economic slowdown. February payrolls showed the U.S. economy losing -92,000 jobs. That was well below estimates of a 55,000 gain. Then Q4 GDP came in at a paltry 0.7% annualized, far below expectations.

This coming week, the Federal Reserve will make its next move, likely a “no move” on rates and a “wait and see” approach. The markets will likely not like either outcome.

Less visible to retail investors, but potentially more systemic, was the widening crack in private credit. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater imposed caps on withdrawals from their multi-billion-dollar private credit funds. BlackRock’s US$26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund faced redemption requests totaling 9.3% of assets but honored only 5%, effectively locking up the remainder.

JP Morgan announced it would restrict lending to private credit providers after marking down the value of several loans, a signal that stress is migrating from the shadow banking system into traditional balance sheets. Blue Owl, Blackstone, and Apollo each shed -2% to –3% on the week as the sector repriced broadly.

What does it all mean? The market is simultaneously repricing geopolitical, inflationary, credit, and growth risk. That is not a recipe for a quick V-shaped recovery. Consumer sentiment fell to 55.5 in March, according to the University of Michigan, with the survey director noting early-month optimism was “completely erased” once the Iran conflict escalated.

The burden of proof is now on the bulls. Until the Strait of Hormuz reopens, private credit stabilizes, and economic data stops deteriorating, assume the path of least resistance remains lower.

The S&P500 closed Friday at 6,632, capping a brutal three-week losing streak—the first in roughly a year. From the late-January high of 7,002, the index is now down -5.3% and has broken every major moving average below.

The March 9th selloff, triggered by Operation Epic Fury and the Iran escalation, wiped nearly -US$900 billion from equities in a single session. On Thursday, Iran’s new Supreme Leader declared the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed, sending Brent temporarily above US$100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.

The technical damage is significant. The index decisively is pushing toward support at the 200-DMA (around 6,604) on Friday, after a reflexive bounce off the previous intraday low failed at the 50-DMA. The 50-DMA (around 6,884) and 100-DMA (around 6,842) are now overhead resistance.

The MACD sits at -28.92, firmly in sell territory and oversold. The 14-day RSI has plunged to 33 and is approaching oversold but not yet at the extreme washout levels that mark durable bottoms. In other words, next week could see some selling pressure down to the 200-DMA, but look for buyers to step in with markets more oversold.

Bottom line: We have shifted from a “buy the dip” market to a “sell the rip” environment. If the market breaks the 200-DMA, that will be technically significant. 

Historically, when the index violates that level on high volume, it takes months to establish a durable floor. That said, RSI is nearing oversold, breadth deterioration remains selective (concentrated in mega-cap tech), and the war premium in oil may dissipate if geopolitical conditions stabilize.

The 6,600 level is the immediate test; failure there opens 6,300–6,400 and a full -10% correction. 

A close above the 100-DMA (around 6,850) would be the first sign that the worst has passed. Until then, reduce exposure into strength, raise cash, define risk levels, and avoid catching falling knives.

The Short Squeeze Grid is Filling Up, Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management

If we get even a brief pause in this one-way oil squeeze and Brent crude slips back below US$100 with momentum signals pointing toward US$90-US$95, it might be time to start thinking about strapping on a little S&P exposure.

That may sound like wishful thinking with the tape the way it is, but sharp fear amid oil spikes tends to overshoot before the macro sanity feedback loop kicks in.

The problem right now is the inflation impulse coming through oil is scrambling the usual buy-the-dip playbook. Models built to fade equity weakness after quick selloffs are struggling because the oil shock is effectively tightening financial conditions in real time. When energy runs like this, equities are not just pricing consumer growth risk. They are pricing the possibility that the Fed’s job just got harder again.

Still, one thing that caught my eye while digging through the bank flow notes this morning is how aggressively institutional players have already de-risked. 

According to the Goldman Sachs desk, institutions just dumped the largest amount of S&P futures on record. On top of that, their prime brokerage data shows ETF shorts jumping up 10% in a single session, the second-largest one-day increase ever on their books, surpassed only by the up 16% surge on April 2, 2025, Liberation Day.

That kind of positioning washout matters. When fast money and institutions hit the sell button at the same time, the market can become over-cleared, overly feared, and heavily shorted, creating the conditions for yet another melt-up. 

If oil even drifts back toward the US$90-US$95 zone, the whole mood could flip quickly, turning the market from an unstable table wobbling on one leg into a full-blown buy-the-dip frenzy.

Goldman’s head of US trading John Flood notes that short exposure across macro products — index futures and ETFs combined — has climbed to the highest level since September 2022, a positioning extreme that could easily set the stage for an explosive short squeeze.

On Saturday, Goldman’s futures desk chimed in with a striking observation of its own. 

In early March, the asset manager crowd, the CFTC bucket that captures most institutional investors, not the leveraged fund fast money, saw their S&P500 futures length collapse, a positioning retreat that looks less like routine portfolio trimming and more like the big money quietly heading for the exits while the tape was still playing music.

Specifically, during the week of March 3 to 10, asset managers dumped -US$36.2 billion of S&P futures according to the Commitment of Traders data, the largest notional liquidation in more than a decade. 

In other words the institutional crowd did not just trim sails they hauled down the canvas and ran for the lifeboats, marking the biggest retreat in futures exposure in over ten years.

What matters now is the psychological terrain. Sentiment has fallen off a cliff, and institutional futures positioning has tracked that drop almost tick for tick. When mood and positioning collapse, the market often enters a strange state of negative equilibrium where everyone believes risk must go lower, even as the ammunition to push it lower has already been spent.

That is where things become combustible. After a positioning washout like this, the market does not need good news to rally. It only needs the absence of new fear. If oil cools even modestly or the geopolitical temperature drops a few degrees, the same hands that just dumped risk could find themselves scrambling back through the same narrow doorway.

And when crowded fear suddenly turns into forced re-entry, the tape can ignite quickly. What looked like disciplined de-risking one week can morph into a furious short-covering scramble the next.

Markets have a habit of punishing the last trade placed in panic, and right now the fingerprints of panic are still fresh across the futures book.

Corporate news in Australia

-Bain Capital to buy Perpetual Wealth ((PPT)) for $550m

-A non property buyer is leading the $865m bid to acquire Peet ((PPC))

-Future Fund considering a stake in Victoria’s $4bn land registry sale

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) planning to acquire Worldline’s stake in their $925m payments joint venture

-A private equity group led by Andrew Forrest is exploring an acquisition of BHP Group’s ((BHP)) Nickel West

-JPMorgan completed a block trade of Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)) shares for Hometown America

-Jackie ‘O’ Henderson suing ARN Media ((A1N)) over alleged wrongful termination

-KMD Brands ((KMD)) appoints Goldman Sachs to manage a major recapitalisation

-L1 Capital ((L1G)) targeting $1bn for a new gold LIC with founders committing $100m

-HotCopper deletes posts following legal action from Duncan Craib

-US oil companies could earn US$86b this year as oil prices surge after the Iran war

-WhiteHawk Capital considering a $400m lending facility for Star Entertainment ((SGR))

-Renewable data centre developer WinDC seeking $176m in Series A funding

-Koala’s IPO is positioned for a circa $305m valuation at the top of the original range

On the calendar today:

-CH Feb Indust Prod’n

-CH Feb Retail sales

-AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED ((AIA )) Qtrly update

-AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED ((ANG)) ex-div 0.30c (100%)

-COMMS GROUP LIMITED ((CCG)) ex-div 0.13c (100%)

-CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) ex-div 5.00c (100%)

-CHORUS LIMITED ((CNU)) ex-div 17.26c

-DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) ex-div 13.50c (100%)

-HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) ex-div 36.00c (100%)

-KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED ((KCN)) ex-div 10c

-LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) earnings report

-RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) ex-div 3.00c (100%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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