The Overnight Report: Deadline Tomorrow

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This story features ATLAS ARTERIA, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALX
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets retreated on Monday, taking a step back from last week's history making rally and ahead of scheduled peace talks in the Middle East, as oil prices rose.

The ASX200 ended slightly positive on Monday with futures pointing to a positive start for Tuesday.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 finished up 6 points on Monday, led by consumer discretionary stocks.

SPI futures are indficating the local market is yet again ready to open positively, ahead of tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline and after a weaker session on Wall Street.

Already this morning, Hub24 ((HUB)) reported $4bn in platform net inflows for the March quarter, up 9% on the prior period excluding large migrations.

Total funds under administration rose 22% to $151.7bn, with strong inflows offset by -$4.1bn in negative market movements.

Also on the calendar today: Atlas Arteria ((ALX)), Challenger ((CGF)), Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/21/todays-financial-calendar-21-04-2026/

J.L. Bernstein extract

1. Iran Conflict Reignites

The US Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman.

Tehran shut the Strait of Hormuz again and the US-Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday.

Bank of America warned clients the market is treating this like a Trump tariff threat where he postures, then backs off.

The problem is Iran has to want a deal too, and right now Tehran doesn’t.

2. Psychedelics Get the Fast Track

Trump’s executive order tells the FDA to speed up reviews of psychedelic drugs for serious mental illness.

The agency can now issue priority vouchers that cut review times from around ten months down to a matter of weeks.

Every company sitting on late-stage psychedelic trial data just got a new timeline.

3. Semiconductors Hit Historic Extremes

The iShares Semiconductor ETF $SOXX is on a 14-day win streak, second only to a 15-day run in 2014. It’s also on pace for its biggest monthly gain since the fund launched in 2001.

Tesla kicks off Magnificent Seven earnings Wednesday after the bell, and that’s the first real test for whether the AI trade can hold up to actual numbers.

National Australia Bank, Markets Today extract

Markets opened the new week knowing the Strait of Hormuz was not, in fact, open.  Even so, the initial reaction has been fairly constrained. Equities are a little softer but US Treasury yields are little changed.

Brent jumped above US$96/bbl to open trading in the local session yesterday and has held a tight range around that level.

Reports early yesterday that the US had boarded and seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman did not obviously aggravate tensions, with eyes mostly on the impending end of the two-week ceasefire.

Fourteen days should nominally mean it ends tonight, although President Trump has said the US has ‘all the time in the world’ , and referred to Wednesday evening US time as the end of the ceasefire. After that, he has said Iranian bridges and power plants are back on the target list.

The US has dispatched a delegation to Islamabad that includes Vance, Witkoff and Kushner, but Iranian messaging on their willingness to meet is mixed. Public denials conflict with sourced reports that the Iranians will engage.

ECB President Lagarde struck a cautious tone , arguing the ECB needs more time and more data before drawing any firm policy conclusions from the latest Middle East shock. She noted that markets still seem to assume the hit is temporary, with energy not yet moving enough to force the ECB into its adverse scenario.

The message was pretty clear: the ECB is alert but the bar to react immediately remains high.

In prepared remarks ahead of his Senate Banking Committee hearing, Kevin Warsh said monetary policy should remain “strictly independent”, but also argued that operational independence is not “particularly threatened” when presidents or lawmakers publicly state views on interest rates.

He added that central bankers should be strong enough to hear a diversity of views and open enough to new ideas. Warsh instead framed the bigger threat as coming from the Fed itself, arguing the central bank must “stay in its lane” and that it undermines its own credibility when it strays into fiscal, social and other areas where it lacks authority or expertise.

Canada’s March CPI had a softer feel than the headline suggests. Annual inflation rose to 2.4% from 1.8%, but undershot the 2.6% consensus, while the average of the two core measures eased to 2.25%.

The detail was encouraging, with breadth of price increases narrowing further, particularly in goods and the most extreme services prints. Markets barely reacted and still see the BoC parked for now, although a hike is fully priced by December.

In rates, US Treasuries opened slightly weaker in Asian trade yesterday. However yields gradually ebbed away through the session to close at the tight end of the day’s trading range.

The 10-Year is left at 4.25%, essentially no change in yields since the Friday New York close. European, and especially UK, yields reacted more severely to the re-closure of the Strait; Gilt yields are 6-7bp higher across the curve.

Lagarde’s comments on ECB patience helped push Bund futures yields a little lower after the close.

Bourses across Europe, and to a lesser extent the US, are weaker, with communications and health care leading a -0.25% decline in the S&P500. 

Konstantinos Chrysikos Head of Customer Relationship Management at Kudotrade

Gold was under pressure on Monday as rising uncertainty over the geopolitical situation in the Middle East lifted oil prices and reignited inflation concerns. Conditions deteriorated to a certain extent after the United States seized an Iranian cargo vessel, prompting retaliation threats from Tehran and casting doubt on the durability of the current ceasefire.

The surge in energy prices and inflation expectations supported both the US dollar and Treasury yields across maturities, weighing on bullion.

Investment flows are also at risk of reversing. After two weeks of inflows, gold-backed ETFs may face renewed outflows as investors could shift toward other assets amid rising yields, placing additional selling pressure on the precious metal.

Looking ahead, gold’s trajectory will remain closely tied to the developments in the Middle East and their impact on energy markets and inflation expectations.

While ongoing central bank purchases and persistent tensions in Eastern Europe provide a longer-term floor, sustained strength in yields and the dollar could keep the metal under pressure in the near term.

Nigel Green, CEO deVere Group extract

Investors should be ‘stagflation-proofing’ their investments now, as fresh business surveys across major economies point to slowing growth alongside persistent inflation pressures, reinforcing concerns that the global economy is edging toward a sustained stagflationary phase, even as equity markets continue to push to record highs.

The S&P500 closed at a record 7,022 last week, while the Nasdaq Composite ended at an all-time high of 24,016, underlining the gap between buoyant markets and a more fragile macro backdrop.

Stagflation is a damaging combination of weak economic growth and elevated inflation. It erodes real returns across asset classes and creates a far more complex backdrop for investors than a typical cycle. Markets are performing strongly, but the conditions that typically precede more difficult real returns are quietly building.

Recent PMI data across Europe shows activity close to stagnation, while cost pressures remain elevated, driven in part by ongoing instability in energy markets linked to tensions involving Iran.

The flash eurozone composite PMI fell to 50.5 in March from 51.9 in February, a 10-month low, before the final reading was revised only marginally to 50.7. Oil price volatility continues to feed through supply chains, lifting input costs globally even as demand softens.

Energy is the key to all of this. Higher oil prices are pushing up costs across industries while growth is losing momentum. This is the defining feature of a 1970’s-style stagflationary environment, even if headline markets are not yet reflecting it.

Global institutions are already warning about the downside risks. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has flagged scenarios that include near-recession conditions, highlighting how difficult it will be to restore growth without reigniting inflation.

In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF said global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 under its reference case, while its severe scenario points to the world economy moving to the brink of recession, with oil averaging US$110 a barrel this year and US$125 next year.

Policymakers face limited room for manoeuvre, with rate decisions constrained by conflicting pressures.

Central banks are in a difficult position. Supporting growth risks fuelling inflation, while holding policy tight risks deepening the slowdown. The tension is feeding volatility across markets, even as indices continue to climb.

Equities are beginning to reflect these pressures. Corporate margins are being squeezed by rising input costs, while consumers show increasing sensitivity to price rises.

Market performance, while strong, is becoming more uneven, with rallies failing to build sustained momentum beneath the surface.

Investors should expect markets to be in a period of volatility and range-bound trading rather than a consistent upward trend. Strong headline performance can mask weaker underlying dynamics and reduced real returns.

Traditional portfolio strategies are under strain. Bonds are struggling to deliver real returns in an inflationary environment, while cash continues to lose purchasing power over time.

The conventional balance between equities, bonds and cash is less effective in this cycle. Investors need to think more carefully about how returns are generated, not just where capital is allocated, particularly as inflation reduces the real value of gains.

Assets linked to real economic activity are gaining prominence. Energy producers, commodity-linked equities and companies with strong pricing power are seen as better positioned to withstand persistent inflation.

Brent crude surged to a peak of around US$118 a barrel in March, later eased back toward US$95 after a ceasefire, and then moved back toward US$100 as tensions flared again, keeping energy markets highly sensitive and inflation risks alive.

Exposure to energy and commodities provides a degree of alignment with inflation dynamics. Businesses with pricing power are better placed to protect margins and maintain earnings stability in an environment where costs remain elevated.

Geographical positioning is also becoming more nuanced. Economies tied to global trade and commodity demand, including Australia and parts of Asia, face a mixed outlook shaped by both external demand and imported inflation pressures.

Investors need to assess regional exposure carefully. Global pressures are interconnected, and no market is completely shielded from the current dynamics, even if equity markets are currently showing resilience.

In this environment, strategies designed to operate in less directional markets are attracting attention, including selective use of structured notes. Structured notes can play a role in this phase because they allow investors to define outcomes based on specific market conditions.

In periods where indices move within ranges, they can help generate returns that are less dependent on outright market direction.
Elevated volatility is a key feature of the current environment, driven by shifting inflation expectations, policy uncertainty and geopolitical developments.

Volatility is higher because markets are reacting more sharply to economic data and geopolitical developments. In certain structured strategies, that volatility can support income generation, provided the risks and returns are clearly understood. Such instruments require careful analysis, particularly around issuer strength, liquidity and payoff structure.

With inflation proving persistent and growth forecasts continuing to weaken, the global investment landscape is undergoing a meaningful shift. The risk of stagflation is building beneath a strong market backdrop.

Investors who recognise the expected change in conditions and adjust their portfolios accordingly are better positioned to protect real value and benefit from what’s likely to become a more demanding period for markets.

Corporate news in Australia

-CGT overhaul could anchor Labor’s budget as Chalmers weighs housing inequality and war costs

-Maurice Blackburn is investigating a potential shareholder class action against James Hardie ((JHX))

-Fletcher Building ((FBU)) approved to sell its construction unit to Vinci

-Monash IVF ((MVF)) has rejected a takeover bid from Genesis Capital and Washington H. Soul Pattinson ((SOL)), saying the offer undervalues the company

-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI)) approved to complete full acquisition of Pacific Asset Management

-BHP Group ((BHP)) begins review to rank unprofitable Australian coal mines

-NextDC ((NXT)) boosted capex and raised $2.2bn

-ASX ((ASX)) completed the first release of its CHESS upgrade project

-Building suppliers like Boral and Tradelink are raising prices due to rising global costs

-Yancoal Australia ((YAL)) flagged lower output and diesel supply risks increasing costs

On the calendar today:

-NZ 1Q CPI

-EZ April ZEW

-UK Feb Unemployment

-ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Qtrly update

-CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) Qtrly update

-HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Qtrly update

-LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Qtrly Update

-RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Qtrly Update

-STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Qtrly update

-YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((YAL)) Qtrly Update

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

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