The Monday Report – 06 July 2026

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This story features GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMD
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets were closed on Friday for Independence Day.

European markets rallied higher last week, led by German's DAX.

The Australian market advanced on Friday, pushing last week into positive territory.

ASX200 futures are pointing to a softer start for Monday's trading.

Good Morning,

The Australian market rallied on Friday, up 120 points or 1.4% to 8,844 to finish in the black for the week.

Including Friday’s session, the week saw the ASX200 advancing by 0.92%, boosted by a 5.84% rally in Healthcare. 

Information Technology moved up 2.42%, Materials up 2.06% and Financials up 1.74%.

Utilities fell -5.78%, Real Estate was down -3.62%, Consumer Staples fell -1.68% and Consumer Discretionary declined -1.31%.

Tony Sycamore, IG extract

The ASX200 found its mojo, supported by fresh buying as investors got to work at the start of the new financial year.

This is a yearly phenomenon that historically makes July the strongest month of the year, with an average return of 2.73% over the past ten years, narrowly edging out April’s 2.44% average gain.

The rally was also supported by a softer-than-expected US jobs report that helped ease concerns around an imminent Fed rate hike.

Adding to the support, three of the big banks have paid dividends into shareholders’ accounts over the past fortnight, much of which often finds its way back into the market soon after.

The Gold Standard: Market Review, RBC Capital extract, Josh Wolfson

The S&P500 increased by 1.8% and the VIX index decreased to 15.8 (-2.3%). Ten-year yields increased by 11bps to 4.49%, driven by real yields increasing by 9bps to 2.25% and inflation expectations increasing by 3bps to 2.24%. The 2-10-year yield curve narrowed by 2bps to 0.34%.

The DXY dollar index decreased by -0.5% to 100.8. Larger foreign exchange moves included a weakening of the Brazilian real (-1.3%) and a strengthening of the South African rand (1.3%).

Gold increased by 2.4% to US$4,122/oz and physical gold ETFs recorded elevated outflows of 717koz.

Silver increased by 5.3% to US$60.91/oz and physical silver ETFs recorded outflows of 1moz. No new CFTC position data was released due to the US holiday. Prior net long gold positions were 173k and net long silver positions were 23k contracts.

Gold equities increased by 3.6%, while gold equity ETFs recorded inflows of US$180m. Silver equity ETFs realised inflows of US$5m.

Copper prices increased by 0.4% to US$6.04/lb, WTI decreased by -4.5% to US$68.69/bbl, and Bitcoin increased by 3.2% to US$62.2k.

NAB Markets Today Research extract

Price action across all asset markets was predictably subdued on Friday, with the US out ahead of the 4 July celebrations marking 250 years of Independence.

Data was largely confined to Final Services and Composite PMIs (ex-US), none of it really market moving, though one bright spot was China’s Caixin Services PMI holding up better than expected at an above-average 54.1 from May’s strong 54.4, against consensus for a fall back to 53.0.

This suggests small and medium-sized enterprises were doing okay last month. Earlier in June, the official China non-manufacturing PMI showed a rise, but only to 50.2 from 50.1.

Ahead of this week’s RBNZ meeting, New Zealand consumer confidence rose in June as lower fuel prices eased pressure on household disposable incomes.

The ANZ index increased to 91.3 from 86.5 in May and 90.3 in April. However, the seasonally adjusted gain was smaller and the level remains weak, suggesting little near-term lift in retail spending.

Fed officials were silent on monetary policy matters over the 4 July weekend, unlike ECB officials and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who were all attending a central bank conference in France.

Bailey was quoted saying, “I’m very frustrated, because I really believe that we would have had inflation at 2% actually a month or so ago, had this conflict not started”.

Inflation is now at 2.8%, “but we will bring it back in the way that actually is most sensible from the point of view of long-run price stability, and not frankly damaging output, where we don’t have to damage output, but we still achieve the inflation target. That’s a judgment, and that’s the judgment we have to take.”

Banque de France chief and ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin said the ECB is in a “good position”following an interest rate hike last month and data showing inflation has eased with the slump in oil prices.

“We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” he said. “But what is true is that the fall in the oil price that was very rapid reassures us and puts us in a better position today on rates.”

Speaking at the same conference, Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel was more circumspect, repeating the thrust of remarks made earlier this week that the end of hostilities in the Middle East cannot be taken for granted and that the ECB should stay watchful for inflation risks and keep its options open. 

“The whole situation is still very volatile,” Nagel said, noting the drop in the oil price was a surprise. “We should be vigilant, we should be open, whatever might come, keeping our optionalities. I think this is the best we can do, our meeting-by-meeting approach.” 

Also on the same panel, Irish central bank chief Gabriel Makhlouf stressed that the ECB has the “absolute will” to deliver inflation at its 2% target.

Elsewhere, ECB President Christine Lagarde told Les Echos she would not rule out leaving her post early in order to offer her voice in the French presidential election in 2027 to push a pro-European integration message in opposition to presidential contenders from the far left and far right who are sceptical of greater European integration.

Political news of note ahead of this week’s NATO Summit includes a Kremlin spokesman saying Presidents Putin and Trump had spoken on Ukraine, while Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had discussed the frontline situation with Trump, would continue talks with him during the NATO Summit and that “there is a real prospect for an end to the war”.

Elsewhere, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he spoke with President Trump on Friday and agreed to meet with him in the US “soon”.

On Friday, NAB revised its FX forecasts in FX Forecast Update, July 3, 2026, with the US dollar profile raised across the forecast horizon to reflect expectations of ongoing US economic and financial market exceptionalism.

Based on NAB Economics’ view of an extended period of Fed inaction but as many as three RBA rate cuts in 2027, AUD/USD could fall back as far as 0.65 next year.

In the absence of near-term Fed rate hikes, however, the AUD could return to 0.70 or above for a period. NAB acknowledges uncertainty around Fed policy remains high and will be a key swing factor for the US dollar, and therefore the AUD, through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

Equity markets outside the US posted gains, led by a 1.5% rise in the Nikkei, with the ASX200 not far behind, up 1.4% on Friday and 0.9% for the week.

The EuroStoxx600 rose 0.7%, while Germany’s DAX was the best-performing major equity market globally, gaining 4.5% over the week and lifting the EuroStoxx600 to a 2.7% weekly gain.

During its four-day trading week, the S&P500 rose 1.7% and the Nasdaq gained 2.1%, with risk sentiment supported by a slight paring of Fed rate hike expectations following Thursday’s softer-than-expected payrolls report.

US futures were open on Friday and traded slightly higher.

Job Miss Is Good News For The Stock Market, Hardika Singh, Market Intelligence extract

The S&P500 posted its largest weekly gain since May 8. The broad-based index rose 1.8% to 7,483.24, with eight of the 11 sectors finishing in positive territory. It has risen in 12 of the past 14 weeks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 2.1% to 25,832.67.

Both indices remain close to record highs.

In the past month, the stock market has traded in a narrow range as peace discussions between the US and Iran stalled and memory stocks remained volatile.

Strong inflation data has also encouraged investors to price in further interest rate hikes. Increasingly, however, there are signs energy prices have peaked, suggesting inflation may also have peaked, although any moderation is likely to take time.

“Gasoline prices rise like a rocket and they fall like a feather,” Fundstrat Head of Research Tom Lee said in his Macro Minute videos. “The good news is, of course, that means there’s less inflation later this year.”

The monthly jobs report on Thursday strengthened the case for the Fed to hold rates steady this year. The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations of 115,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, below forecasts of 4.3%, partly because workers left the labour force rather than due to a stronger labour market.

In typical Wall Street fashion, bad news proved good news. Traders are now pricing a 19.8% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July meeting, down from 28.9% a day earlier, according to CME FedWatch.

Lee continues to believe the second half of the year could resemble a bear market but has lifted his year-end target for the S&P500 to 8,000.

In that scenario, Lee recommends investors buy the dip, highlighting six reasons:

(1) ISM has moved above 50 after three years below 50,

(2) earnings acceleration continues,

(3) oil has returned to pre-war levels, implying inflation should ease in the second half, (4) bond markets remain hawkish but the Fed is flexible,

(5) a 55% year-on-year increase in margin debt suggests consolidation and

(6) fund managers are trailing benchmarks by the widest margin in five years.

Lee also believes any drawdown is likely to be limited because the Magnificent Seven have already experienced a bear market and are beginning to recover, according to Fundstrat Head of Technical Strategy Mark Newton.

He wrote that the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF has achieved a meaningful rebound, breaking above its one-month downtrend and turning the daily MACD indicator positive.

“Given the Magnificent Seven’s dominance within US benchmarks, this relative turn is also helpful for US outperformance versus other countries,” he said. 

“I expect the Magnificent Seven’s relative dominance to consolidate further in the weeks ahead as leadership within Technology shifts back to the Magnificent Seven and, to a lesser extent, Software.”

Corporate news in Australia:

• Genesis Minerals ((GMD)) flagged to bid for Vault Minerals ((VAU))
• Tourism Holdings ((THL)) grants BGH-led consortium due diligence for a potential takeover bid
• Atlas Arteria ((ALX)) rejects IFM Investors’ revised takeover proposal
• Endeavour Group ((EDV)) and Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)) commence vineyard asset sales
• Avenue Capital nears acquisition of CapitaLand’s Australian lending business
• Brookfield joins bidding for Colonial First State alongside existing owners KKR and Commonwealth Bank ((CBA))

On the calendar today:

-AU June ANZ Job Ads

-EZ May PPI, retail sales

-US June PMI, ISM services

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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