WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED (WOW)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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27/08/2026

5

Sell

$39.50

2.84%

Post another peek, UBS retains its Sell rating with a slightly higher target of $39.50 from $39.

The analyst notes Australian Food EBIT has benefited from improved product availability and more competitive trading since September 2025, supported by the Customer Offer Reset program.

However, the broker sees an unattractive risk-reward as Australian Food moves into tougher comparables and following strong share price performance.

Woolworths now trades at a one-year forward PE well above historical averages, while its PE premium to Coles has expanded to around 4x versus UBS's expected 1%-2%.

First Take: Woolworths Group's FY26 underlying earnings increased 13% to $3.11bn, around 2% ahead of both UBS and consensus, with adjusted profit of $1.60bn beating forecasts by 3%.

Australian Food and Big W provided the upside, while strong cash conversion supported a 97c dividend.

Australian Food sales increased 7.6% over the first eight weeks of FY27, although collectibles contributed an estimated 1.5%-2% percentage points.

New Zealand Food remains subdued and corporate losses are expected to increase because of Big W systems costs and lower property income.

UBS's Sell rating reflects the elevated valuation and limited free cash flow yield. Target $39.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 148.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY28 dividend of 125.00 cents and EPS of 169.00 cents.

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30/08/2026

2

Overweight

$42.00

9.35%

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating for Woolworths Group with its target price increased to $42.00 from $34.60 following an FY26 result featuring an EBIT that exceeded consensus expectations by 2%.

The analyst notes the company demonstrated stronger cash flow and a solid exit rate in the Australian Food division, carrying momentum into a strong start for FY27 where sales are up 7.6% year-on-year.

The broker views the core grocery business as functioning effectively, highlighting that the superior fresh food offering is driving foot traffic, while strategic investments in price and loyalty programs are encouraging repeat purchases and boosting adjacent profits.

Despite ongoing challenges in the New Zealand market and a difficult outlook for the BigW division, Jarden prefers Woolworths over its major competitor, forecasting near-term positive EPS surprises and potential multiple expansion as the digital business scales.