Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 28-08-20

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By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday August 24 to Friday August 28, 2020
Total Upgrades: 20
Total Downgrades: 15
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 48.07%; Hold 40.97%; Sell 10.96%

For the week ending Friday August 28, there were twenty upgrades and fifteen downgrades to company ratings by stock analysts in the FNArena database. Of the twenty upgrades, fourteen went to a direct Buy, and only two of the fifteen downgrades went to a direct Sell.

Three stocks received two upgrades from separate brokers. Suncorp’s FY20 result beat estimates, Oil Search was deemed undervalued and TPG Telecom reduced capital expenditure and its new merger partner Vodafone Australia outperformed.

Appen received the dubious honour of two downgrades from brokers, due to a weak first half, which casts doubt on the second. Scepticism deepened when a broker described its business as ‘relatively opaque’, which doesn’t garner confidence in the forecasting stakes.

IDP Education received the largest percentage change to target price as a result of a material ‘beat’ to consensus expectations, due to a strong student placement pipeline and good cost control. A property theme then emerged on the table for largest target price changes as Charter Hall Group had all three operating divisions reporting growth, Aventus Group benefited from support for large format retail in preference to shopping malls and Domain Holdings posted a solid FY20 result.

Percentage falls in target prices weren’t as large as rises, with the largest fall representative of these more straightened pandemic times, as luxury retailer Michael Hill’s profit result disappointed.

However, hope springs eternal, with the largest upgrade to earnings estimates for the week being registered by Wagners, producer and seller of construction materials, despite an in-line profit result. South32 was second on the earnings upgrade table as it divests itself of various businesses, and next up was NextDC, which slightly exceeded earnings expectations and painted a strong growth outlook.

To no one’s surprise, two podium positions on the table for negative earnings revisions by brokers were filled by Qantas Airways and Air New Zealand, due to delays in near-term domestic and long-term international travel, while Whitehaven Coal featured for a soft profit result and some balance sheet concerns.

Total Neutral/Hold recommendations take up 48.07% of the total, versus 40.97% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 10.96%.

Upgrade

ADBRI LIMITED ((ABC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/2

With both margins and volumes holding up better than expected in the first half, UBS upgrades Adbri to Neutral from Sell. The company's net profit (NPAT) was 12% ahead of the broker's forecast.

No guidance has been provided for 2020 but management stated net profit was on track to achieve its pre-covid-19 guidance of $110m. Noting this, the broker has upgraded its 2020 net profit by 24%.

UBS feels Adbri has passed the trough in margins for its core cement division and the outlook seems to be improving. Other tailwinds include positive residential demand and a pipeline of Infrastructure work.

The target price is increased to $2.40 from $2.03.

ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Traffic on Atlas Arteria's APRR toll road in France had bounced back to pre-virus levels by mid-August, only to be tempered by heat waves.

Still, Credit Suisse suggests traffic may only be down -3% year on year on the second half. Atlas Arteria will now pay its previously deferred 11c first half dividend in October. 

Coming back to the actual first half result, it was weaker than the broker expected. But in light of the subsequent news, Credit Suisse lifts its target to $7.90 from $6.90 and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.

APA GROUP ((APA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $11.72 from $11.36. The broker notes the management team has been rebuilt and the project pipeline is being filled. There is also the significant North American opportunity.

Nevertheless, the earnings outlook is flat as the economic downturn has taken the edge off volumes and the refinancing of SEAgas lowers energy investment.

AVENTUS GROUP ((AVN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Aventus Group's FY20 result highlighted the resilience of large format retail during the pandemic, observes UBS. The REIT's funds from operations (FFO) was slightly ahead of the broker's forecast. 

No FFO or distribution guidance was provided due to the current uncertainty.

The group's resilient large-format retail assets, strong foot traffic and benefits from changing household spending patterns will more than offset the risk of any housing slowdown, expects the broker.

UBS upgrades its rating to Buy from Neutral with the target price increasing to $2.50 from $1.65.

CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED ((CAJ)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Underlying operating earnings in FY20 were materially higher than Ord Minnett anticipated. The result was underpinned by cost control and a bounce in volumes towards the end of the year. GP attendance also held up well.

Growth options abound, the broker notes, supported by a strong balance sheet. With the long-term structural dynamics in the industry intact, Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target rises to $0.28 from $0.20.

ELANOR INVESTORS GROUP ((ENN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Earnings in FY22 were materially lower than Ord Minnett expected following the temporary suspension of several fund distributions. The highlight of the result was the growth in funds management, with revenue up 43%.

The portfolio was obviously affected by the pandemic, given the concentration in retail and hospitality assets, but the capital position of each fund is stable, the broker notes.

Ord Minnett also assesses the share price describes no value to the funds management business now and this is underpinned by recurring fees. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate and the target lowered to $1.77 from $2.27.

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD ((FMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Fortescue Metals Group's FY20 profit was in line with Citi's estimates as well as the consensus. A (total) dividend of $1.76 implies a payout ratio of 77% and was more than Citi expected. There is no change in FY21 guidance with shipments of 175-180mt expected during the year.

Citi’s mining team notes upside risk to iron ore pricing in 2021 given China stimulus and positive lead indicators like excavator sales
and property starts. The mining team thinks iron price could average US$85/$75/t in 2021-22 with Fortescue earnings per share of US$1.46/$1.13 in FY21-22.

Citi upgrades its rating to Neutral from Sell with the target price increasing to $17.50 from $11.70.

See also FMG downgrade.

INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED ((IDX)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Credit Suisse is confident of a sharp recovery in both Victoria and New Zealand after restrictions are eased in the next 4-6 weeks. Industry growth of 5-7% appears increasingly bankable.

However, the broker does not believe the relative valuation appeal will last for long and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.30. FY20 results were broadly in line and the broker notes cash conversion was excellent.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Macquarie notes nib Holdings' result missed consensus forecasts for both earnings and the dividend. But in the wake of a sharp share price response, the broker upgrades to Outperform.

Despite no underlying profit growth guidance being offered, on a -22% discount to peers the broker believes value has emerged. Target rises to $5.15 from $4.80.

OIL SEARCH LIMITED ((OSH)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Morgans reports Oil Search delivered an in-line first half result, while adapting its growth plans to lower medium-term and long-term energy demand conditions.

The main news in the result for the broker was the company working on a new development plan in Alaska, with plans evolving materially as it seeks to optimise capital efficiency.

The key question for Morgans is how the company funds its future growth in Alaska and PNG (where risks remain a key hurdle).

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold as Morgans suggests shares are trading at a -20% discount to valuation. The target price is increased to $3.65 from $2.80.

Citi believes a value argument is developing for Oil Search and upgrades to Buy/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk. The High Risk tag is retained because of the potential for oil prices to be volatile.

Unless there is another sharp contraction in the oil price, however, Citi believes Oil Search has raised enough equity, although a top up may be required for the final investment decision on Alaska to keep the non-escrowed cash balance above US$50m. Target is raised to $3.87 from $3.76.

PTB GROUP LIMITED ((PTB)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Morgans increases the valuation for PTB Group on more optimistic assumptions for FY21 earnings, growth rates in the US and the potential for dividends.

The broker has increased forecast FY21 revenue significantly on the assumption that reduced customer flight hours will be mostly limited to Trans Maldivian Airways (TMA).

If US earnings remain resilient, the analyst says the company could implement its growth plans more quickly.

Morgans lifts the forecast FY21 dividend to 5cps because of higher earnings forecasts and an assumption that 50% of dividends will be funded by the DRP.

The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. The target price is increased to $0.77 from $0.65

REDBUBBLE LIMITED ((RBL)) Upgrade to Add from Reduce by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Morgans bypasses a Hold rating and gives a double increase in rating for Redbubble to Add from Reduce.

The broker highlights momentum is strong and growth rates since the end of FY20 have accelerated on an already impressive 4QFY20.

Additionally, the business model should provide a fair degree of leverage, is capital light and in the right place at the right time.

The only incremental information from a pre-announced result was August trading had continued a similar trend to July (up 132%).

The target price is increased to $4.33 from $0.54.

SOMNOMED LIMITED ((SOM)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

SomnoMed posted an impressive result according to Morgans, considering the impact covid-19 was supposed to have on the business, aided by strict cost containment and government assistance.

The broker states it is willing to back a recovery over the medium-term, with revenues returning to pre-covid-19 levels by FY22.

Despite lockdowns in many of the jurisdictions having an impact on sales, North America was up 3%, Europe was down -6% and the Asia Pacific Region (APAC) was down -6%, notes the analyst.

The broker highlights a number of positives including a strong thematic of sleep, a solid underlying business with a wide distribution network, net cash with minimal debt and quality market leading products and new product launches due shortly.

Morgans upgrades profit (NPAT) assumptions by 120% and 114% for FY22 and FY23. The rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. The target price is increased to $2.02 from $1.33.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/5/0

FY20 results beat Credit Suisse estimates and the final dividend of $0.10 was also above forecasts. The second half did not contain the conservatism the broker was expecting and margins were also higher than anticipated. Still, further margin pressure is considered likely.

The broker assesses FY21 is commencing in better shape than previously anticipated and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

That said, while acknowledging Underperform was incorrect, Credit Suisse suspects the market is underestimating the extent of the headwinds in FY21 and is not supportive of a more positive stance.Target is raised to $9.95 from $8.75.

Suncorp Group’s cash net profit beat Morgan Stanley's estimate by 5%. The second half dividend was 10c which is slightly below the broker's forecast.

The broker expects bank margins to benefit from deposit mix shift away from term deposits and towards at-call deposits in FY21. While the group has not given any cost targets, the broker expects cost headwinds from covid-19 to abate in FY21.

Morgan Stanley rates the stock as Underweight with a target price of $7.50. Industry view: In-line.

[FNArena has received confirmation the rating has been upgraded since to Equal-weight with a $9.50 price target].

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/2/1

TPG Telecom's maiden result post merger was in line but mixed, Macquarie notes. The virus dragged on mobile subscriptions but fixed line was as expected. Capex guidance has been reduced.

The reduction in capex, along with solid execution on fixed line, and recent share price weakness lead the broker to upgrade to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $9.00 from $8.60.

First half operating earnings (EBITDA) were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The beat primarily came from Vodafone Australia. Regardless of the strong performance, management is still guiding to a more severe impact from the pandemic in the second half.

Credit Suisse notes market share trends remain unfavourable for Vodafone Australia with subscriber losses a result of limited network capacity prior to the merger and the impact of the pandemic from April to June.

Synergies from the merger were not quantified but integration is underway. Given the recent decline in the share price, Credit Suisse upgrades to Neutral from Underperform and raises the target to $7.40 from $7.35.

See also TPG downgrade.

WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED ((WGN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/0

The FY20 result for Wagners Holding was largely in-line with Macquarie's estimates, segment margins were better, but offset by corporate costs.

Management is depending on an infrastructure-driven activity boost to offset the softer residential market and anticipates stable concrete demand. Unfortunately, Macquarie believes margins have now reset at structurally lower levels.

The broker lifts FY21-FY23 EPS estimates by 26%, 5% and 2%, respectively, driven by marginally increased sales expectations and better margins from improved cost control.

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. The target price is increased to $1.20 from $1.05.

See also WGN downgrade.

WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 5/2/0

FY20 earnings missed forecasts largely because of depreciation & amortisation. Beyond this the results were in line. There are a number of emerging options for Forrestania, Credit Suisse observes.

The balance sheet remains solid and finances are considered prudently managed. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on valuation. Target rises to $2.50 from $2.40.

Downgrade

APPEN LIMITED ((APX)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/1/1

First half results were below Ord Minnett's estimates. Full year operating earnings guidance of $125-130m has been maintained. The softness in the first half was driven by a deceleration in underlying earnings growth and the cycling of some one-off contracts.

The broker finds the company's business relatively opaque and difficult to forecast but notes the exposure to the artificial intelligence sector should provide significant growth potential.

As the stock has re-rated since early May, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target rises to $35 from $33.

Credit Suisse suggests the market had been standing by for a material 2020 earnings upgrade from Appen with yesterday's first half result, but now the focus has swung to whether full year guidance can even be achieved.

The first half was weaker than the broker expected, but has only led to slight forecast downgrades and a target drop to $29 from $30, retaining the same 45x multiple.

Full year guidance is unchanged, but this implies a 60% second half skew, the broker notes, and the A$ is providing a headwind. Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral.

BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((BIN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/0

FY20 results were in line with expectations. Management has indicated pricing is stabilising at lower levels. Credit Suisse finds a path to significant growth beyond FY21 with management expecting building construction activity to recover from FY22.

The broker lowers FY21 estimates by -8% to account for lower contributions from collections and posts collections as well as lower margin assumptions.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, as the broker awaits more evidence of demand recovery. The target is lowered to $2.40 from $2.45.

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/0

FY20 results were better than Credit Suisse expected. All three operating divisions reported growth and the broker envisages a growth opportunity from sale and leaseback opportunities and completions.

Charter Hall is guiding to operating earnings per security of 51c in FY21 with distribution growth of 6%.

Credit Suisse increases FY21 and FY22 estimates by 5.1% and 4.6%, respectively. The stock appears fairly valued, hence the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $12.21 from $9.17.

FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED ((FLT)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Flight Centre reported a large FY20 underlying loss of -$509.9m, with the larger second half loss of -$612.6m reflecting covid-19 border closures and travel restrictions, notes Morgans.

The Leisure division with its high cost base, weighting to international travel and high rate of cancellations was severely loss making.

The analyst calculates the company has enough liquidity to weather a low revenue environment for around 16 months, and while expecting a loss in FY21, by FY24 Morgans expects the company to return to its FY19 earnings.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. The target price is increased to $13.60 from $13.

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD ((FMG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/4/1

The highlight in FY20 results was the strong $1 (final) dividend and Credit Suisse now makes less conservative assumptions around long-run unit costs and strip ratios, which increases the target to $15.00 from $12.50.

Nevertheless, given the recent sustained outperformance of the share price the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. The downgrade is a valuation call, the broker emphasises.

While a lot of the strong run up in the share price is justifiable, the question Credit Suisse believes should be asked is how much upside is available when iron ore is over US$120/t and earnings may be close to peaking.

See also FMG upgrade.

HOME CONSORTIUM LIMITED ((HMC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/2/0

FY20 results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. Credit Suisse notes FY21 guidance has been withdrawn in light of the uncertainty, although the company appears to be progressing well with its strategy.

Subsequent to the recent equity raising, gearing is well within covenants, the broker notes.

As the share price has rallied subsequent to the equity raising Credit Suisse envisages better absolute value elsewhere and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target edges down to $3.21 from $3.22.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/1

IGO's FY20 numbers matched guidance provided at the company's June quarter update, so no surprises.

A 5c final to make 11c for the year came in at the top end of management's dividend payout range. This will be reviewed in FY21, and Credit Suisse suspects a dividend/buyback combination will be forthcoming.

FY21 production and cost guidance is unchanged. The miner is hoping to expand across various metals, likely through M&A, with lithium and rare earths now on the radar.

Target rises to $4.35 from $4.05 after switching to a net asset and enterprise value blend from discounted cash flow. Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform on valuation.

MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((MHJ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Citi finds the sales outlook challenging, given the deteriorating macro economic outlook. The broker upgrades estimates for FY21 and FY22 net profit because of wage subsidies and rent concessions that were stronger than expected.

However, the easy gains appear to be exhausted and there remains an absence of material long-term growth strategies, in the broker's view. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy and the target lowered to $0.33 from $0.46.

NEW ENERGY SOLAR ((NEW)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Morgan Stanley thinks New Energy Solar's near-term outlook suffers from operating and capital issues. Moreover, the company's gearing levels have increased, necessitating the company to consider refinancing options.

Noting the distributions are largely tax-deferred and supported by cashflows, Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating to Equal-weight from Overweight with the target price decreasing to $1.08 from $1.41. Industry view: Cautious.

OOH!MEDIA LIMITED ((OML)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

oOh!media reported a first half 2020 underlying net loss of -$16.9m versus a profit of $18.2m in the same period last year, but Ord Minnett states management has done an excellent job achieving more than -$80m in cost savings, and supported by its capital raising, reducing leverage.

Despite signs of emerging positivity for regional growth, the broker lowers earnings (EBITDA) estimates for 2020 and 2021 by -50.7% and -38.8%, respectively.

This is due to lower than expected revenues in the first half, as well as the company's commute, retail, fly and locate segments continuing to be affected by macro weakness, the pandemic restrictions and reduced audiences.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on a lack of valuation support.  The target price is decreased to $1.05 from $1.25.

RURAL FUNDS GROUP ((RFF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Rural Funds Group's FY20 result was devoid of any impact from covid-19 with earnings (AFFO) up 3%, comments UBS.

Dividend guidance for FY21 is 4% growth with earnings (AFFO) at 11.7c (down -13% versus last year) due to increased capital expenditure profile on long-dated projects like Macadamias. 

UBS downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds with the target price increasing to $2.35 from $2.30.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/0

FY20 results were better than Credit Suisse expected. While there are some hurdles to overcome in FY21 these have been well flagged.

Upside potential stems from the commercial pipeline and the broker assesses Stockland Group has capacity to fund incremental expenditure on new developments via debt.

While acknowledging the leverage to a recovery in residential and the long-term upside from developments, Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the stock is considered fairly valued. Target rises to $3.96 from $3.56.

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Given the merger was completed only four days before the end of the interim period, Ord Minnett describes the TPG Telecom result as messy.

The company flagged a number of headwinds that impacted profitability in the half including Vodafone revenue and margins declines due to lower handset sales, lower subscribers and reduced roaming charges, while TPG Corporation saw lower margins because of the ongoing transition to the NBN, notes the broker.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. The target price is decreased to $7.70 from $8.65.

See also TPG upgrade.

WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED ((WGN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/2/0

FY20 revenue was ahead of expectations while net profit was in line. Quarries and transport/haulage performed well as major projects were ramped up. The company's high debt is a concern although the broker expects this to reduce in FY21 because of the successful recent refinancing.

More earnings growth is expected in FY21 although Credit Suisse notes further upside depends on project gains, given flat industry volumes. As a result, the broker chooses to remain conservative and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $1.10 from $1.00.

See also WGN upgrade.

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