Weekly Recommendation, Target Price, Earnings Forecast Changes

This story features AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AZJ

By Greg Peel, Acting Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday December 14 to Friday December 18, 2015
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 23
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 43.51%; Hold 43.70%; Sell 12.79%

Reading between the lines of resource sector stock analyst reports over the past couple of months, it has been clear stock analysts were becoming increasingly concerned that their "house" commodity price forecasts, as set by a separate team of commodity analysts at the same firm, were too high. The problem is that commodity analysts are not in the business of resetting forecasts on every market move. Rather, they look at the wider picture and a longer term view to set their "price decks" across forecast periods out to three years, and then to a "long term" price.

These views are typically revisited quarterly. This past quarter has seen further significant drops in commodity prices, including in bulk minerals and base and precious metals. Macquarie analysts have been most overt of late in warning investors, in analyst research notes, that spot mineral/metal prices had now fallen well below house forecast levels, and were the stock analysts to plug spot prices rather than house forecast prices into their valuation models, many a miner would suffer a significant valuation downgrade. By implication, stock analysts were not comfortable with the target prices they were publishing given the gap to actual share prices was increasingly widening.

And so it was that last week Macquarie's commodity analysts updated their forecasts, slashing prices left right and centre. Macquarie was not alone. Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse conducted similar exercises. The result is that of the 23 recommendation downgrades forthcoming from FNArena database brokers last week, 16 involved miners. Of that 16, 7 were "double-downgrades" straight to an equivalent Sell from Buy. All of those 7 came from Macquarie.

But in this instance, the analysts have now followed the market rather than lead it. The market had already knocked down miner share prices to levels more reflecting valuations at spot commodity prices and indeed, in some cases to what stock analysts considered to be "oversold" levels. Thus to match the 16 downgrades, 7 of last week's net 12 recommendation also involved miners.

There was no balance on the earnings forecast and target price front, nonetheless. They were all to the downside. On our top ten earnings forecast cuts table below, 8 of the 10 represent miners. Similarly, on the top ten target price cuts table, 8 of the 10 represent miners. And some of the percentages are pretty sizeable.

The other significant event of last week was the government’s MYEFO budget outlook, which surprised stock analysts by including onerous proposals to slash funding for healthcare diagnostics, and to a lesser extent to reel in aged care subsidies. The proposals were surprising given there is a separate Medicare review still underway, which poses further downside risk.

Thus hiding amongst the miners amongst this week’s rating downgrades are Primary Health Care, Sonic Healthcare, and Capitol Health. The other highlight of last week was a decision by management at troubled Slater & Gordon to “walk away”, as analysts put it, from previous profit guidance. Such a move does not instil any confidence, and leads analysts to increase their risk premiums and downgrade their forecasts and ratings.

Any good news? Well the biggest target price increase of the week was reserved for an unwavering Domino’s Pizza, which yet again blew away talk of overvaluation by announcing another acquisition deal and significantly lifting profit guidance.

A supreme effort.

Upgrade

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Hold from Reduce by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/5/0

Morgans suggests recent announcements of coal production cuts by Glencore and Anglo American are indicative of a weak coal price environment and reduced haulage volumes ahead. Add in increased interest costs in the near term and the broker has trimmed Aurizon forecast earnings.

Add in the Paris Agreement and coal haulage may face long term structural headwinds, Morgans believes. The broker expects downgrades to consensus earnings forecasts but believes the share price fall captures concerns. Thus the broker has upgraded to Hold from Reduce. Target falls to $5.05 from $5.11.

See also AZJ downgrade.

BHP BILLITON LIMITED ((BHP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/3/1

The fall in commodity prices has been so precipitous, Credit Suisse suggests, that a supply-side response must be imminent in the broker's view. Bulks still offer downside risk but base metals are further progressed towards supply-side adjustment. Alumina and aluminium nevertheless remain challenged, Credit Suisse believes.

BHP's earnings impact (ex energy) is not as significant as peers, but the broker suggests the company must rebase its dividend by half, in order to hold debt levels steady. However as this is already priced in by the market, Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform. Target falls to $20.00 from $22.50.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/4/0

The company has bought Joey's Pizza in Germany for $69m plus a 52m earn-out. This is the number one pizza chain in Germany by store count. The company has upgraded earnings guidance to be 30% higher on FY15.

UBS believes the latest acquisition reflects an excellent business and upgrades forecasts by 2.0% and 8.0% for FY16 and FY17 respectively.

The broker believes, in the context of its growth rate, that the stock's price/earnings ratio is defendable and moves to Neutral from Sell. Target is lifted to $50.00 from $37.36.

DORAY MINERALS LIMITED ((DRM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals, with only modest cuts to gold.

Gold producer earnings changes are mixed, with those with exposure to a weaker Australian dollar receiving some benefit.

Macquarie upgrades Doray Minerals to Outperform from Neutral, given share price underperformance. Target unchanged at 60c.

INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL ((IGO)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Independence Group's optimisation study for the Nova project has delivered material improvements and a 16% cost reduction through lower contractor rates and lower energy costs, Citi notes. More ore will now be mined at a faster pace and higher grade ore will be processed earlier in the mine plan.

Citi has upgraded its production forecasts and thus 2017 earnings. Given a fall in share price, Citi upgrades to Buy with a $2.98 target.

The fall in commodity prices has been so precipitous, Credit Suisse suggests, that a supply-side response must be imminent in the broker's view. Bulks still offer downside risk but base metals are further progressed towards supply-side adjustment. Alumina and aluminium nevertheless remain challenged, Credit Suisse believes.

The broker has significantly lowered nickel price forecasts but made little change to copper and gold. Nova is ramping up faster than assumed and costs are falling, and Independence' debt is easily manageable in Credit Suisse' view.

Target cut to $3.00 from $3.50 but on a 27% share price fall in three months the broker upgrades to Outperform.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals, with the outlook for mineral sands little changed.

Macquarie lifts Iluka to Neutral from Underperform, because of a weaker outlook for the Australian dollar. Target is reduced to $5.50 from $5.90.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/7/0

Noting that a large proportion of Dick Smith's ((DSH)) excess inventory is private label, Citi does not expect the troubled retailer's discounting to have too much of an impact on JB Hi-Fi revenues in the run-up to Christmas.

While there will be no new iPhone to boost sales this year, JB's recent share price fall is sufficient to price in sales growth fears in the broker's view. Citi therefore upgrades to Neutral. Target falls to $17.80 from $18.20. 

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD ((NST)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals, with only modest cuts to gold.

Gold producers earnings changes are mixed, with those with exposure to a weaker Australian dollar receiving some benefit.

Macquarie upgrades Northern Start to Outperform from Neutral following its share price underperformance. Target is raised to $3.00 from $2.90.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES NL ((SFR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/5/0

Credit Suisse has lowered its 2016-17 gold price forecasts but retained its long term US$1200/oz forecast. The broker has also lowered its copper price forecasts but similarly retains a long term forecast of US$3.00/lb.

Despite having a pressing need to find satellite feed for its high quality site infrastructure, given limited DeGrussa mine life, Sandfire is a reliable, low-cost, low-risk, single-asset copper miner generating strong free cash flow, the broker notes. Target falls to $5.20 from $5.60 but on the fall in share price, Credit Suisse has upgraded to Neutral.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan .B/H/S: 2/5/1

The broker suspects claims trends will unwind and margin pressures ease in coming months and the steep falls in the stock post the trading update present a buying opportunity. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target is steady at $13.89.

The extent of the downgrade to underlying margins was large and JP Morgan observes the company was having trouble explaining the trends. While believing the trends are real, the broker suspects some of the issues are volatile and could unwind.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 4/3/1

Deutsche Bank observes the mining sector is under severe stress, with most companies trading below replacement value, an indication the sector is oversold.

Downgraded coal price forecasts are partly offset by revised operating and cost assumptions. With the recent sharp fall in the share price the broker upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is lowered to $1.00 from $1.20.

See also WHC downgrade.

Downgrade

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/2

The fall in commodity prices has been so precipitous, Credit Suisse suggests, that a supply-side response must be imminent in the broker's view. Bulks still offer downside risk but base metals are further progressed towards supply-side adjustment. Alumina and aluminium nevertheless remain challenged, Credit Suisse believes.

The broker has lowered its alumina price forecast and now expects AWAC to have a cash shortfall in 2016 which will need to be covered by the JV partners. This will rule out an FY16 dividend from Alumina, Credit Suisse suggests. Downgrade to Underperform, target falls to $1.15 from $1.30.

Macquarie expects the resources pain to intensify and has downgraded its outlook for coal, alumina/aluminium and manganese substantially.

Alumina Ltd is double downgraded, to Underperform from Outperform, and is expected to run short of cash if loss making operations are not put on hold quickly. Target is reduced to $1.00 from $1.60.

AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/5/0

Despite a slight better earnings outlook for FY16 associated with a revenue recovery – the UT4 consolidated draft is slightly more positive – the company remains challenged in coal, iron ore and possibly from Queensland Nickel, Macquarie contends.

This will offset the benefit of any cost reductions and capital management remains the major lever for the stock, the broker maintains.

Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $5.44 from $5.57.

See also AZJ upgrade.

BC IRON LIMITED ((BCI)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/2/1

BC Iron has announced the temporary closure of the Nullagine joint venture (BCI 75%) because of depressed iron ore prices. Exports will cease in January. Macquarie suspects the closure will be permanent.

The broker observes the company has done a good job in cutting costs but this has not been enough. The company's fortunes are now envisaged to be in the hands of Mineral Resources ((MIN)), given current weakness in prices could result in Iron Valley being at risk of closure.

Macquarie reduces the target to 15c from 48c. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform.

CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED ((CAJ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Credit Suisse has analysed the impact of the MYEFO proposals regarding bulk billing, noting Capitol is largely a bulk-bill provider. Reductions in MRI subsidies lead the broker to calculate a potential 35-45% hit to Capitol revenues in FY17-18.

The proposals have yet to get through the Senate, but on the other hand the Medicare review underway is another issue entirely. It is difficult to now how the market will respond in terms of demand for MRIs, the broker concedes, so for the moment it's difficult to see "the light at the end of the tunnel".

In the meantime, Credit Suisse has cut its target to 25c from 55c and downgraded to Neutral.

CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((CTX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/5/0

With Caltex' 2015 refining profit guidance coming in 4% above consensus, Citi has lifted its earnings forecasts accordingly. However given the strong run-up in the share price, the broker pulls back to Neutral.

The company's focus on business optimisation should lead to M&A and excess capital returns, Citi suggests. M&A can't be forecast and the broker warns special dividends may not be as high as the market is currently anticipating. Target rises to $39.06. 

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Deutsche Bank observes the mining sector is under severe stress, with most companies trading below replacement value, an indication the sector is oversold.

Evolution Mining's model has been updated and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation. Target remains $1.50.

MOUNT GIBSON IRON LIMITED ((MGX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices. The broker cuts iron ore forecasts by 8.0%.

The broker downgrades Mount Gibson to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to 20c from 26c.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals.

The broker downgrades Mineral Resources to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $5.26 from $5.29.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/3

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals, with only modest cuts for gold. Gold producers earnings changes are mixed, with those with exposure to a weaker Australian dollar receiving some benefit.

Stocks with elevated levels of gearing such as Newcrest are likely to experience increased focus on cash-flow break-even, the broker maintains. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $13.70 from $15.30, given the stock's exposure to copper.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/1/1

Macquarie expects the resources pain to intensify and has downgraded its outlook for thermal coal, alumina/aluminium and manganese substantially.

The broker downgrades New Hope to Underperform from Outperform and cuts the target to $1.10 from $2.40.

The fall in commodity prices has been so precipitous, Credit Suisse suggests, that a supply-side response must be imminent in the broker's view. Bulks still offer downside risk but base metals are further progressed towards supply-side adjustment. Alumina and aluminium nevertheless remain challenged, Credit Suisse believes.

Lowered coal price forecasts see the broker's earnings forecasts for New Hope fall 23% and 19% in FY16-17. It will now be a challenge for the company to generate the target return out of its Bengalla acquisition and the deal (assuming success) and lower coal prices should lead to lower dividends, Credit Suisse believes.

Target cut to $1.90 from $2.25 and rating downgraded to Neutral.

OZ MINERALS LIMITED ((OZL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/2/1

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals.

OZ Minerals' rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform, given its exposure to copper and the downgrade to the broker's medium-term outlook for that commodity. Target is reduced to $4 from $6.

PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED ((PAN)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/2

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals.

Macquarie downgrades Panoramic to Underperform from Outperform, having made significant cuts (24%) to nickel price forecasts. Target is reduced to 20c from 50c.

PRAIRIE MINING LIMITED ((PDZ)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/0/1

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly bulks and base metals.

Prairie Mining is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is cut to 4c from 30c.

PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((PRY)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/5/2

Further to the government's announced cuts to funding of pathology and diagnostic imaging, Morgan Stanley downgrades Primary Health Care to Equal-weight from Overweight, in view of its high exposure to bulk billing and higher debt.

The proposals entail removing bulk billing incentives for pathology and aligning bulk billing incentives for diagnostic imaging with GPs. In-Line sector view retained. Target is lowered to $2.78 from $4.21.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Macquarie expects the resources pain to intensify and has downgraded its outlook for thermal coal, alumina/aluminium and manganese substantially.

This means South32 is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The target is lowered to $1.10 from $1.80.

SLATER & GORDON LIMITED ((SGH)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 0/2/2

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Sell from Hold and reduces the target to 75c from $1.65 after the company abandoned FY16 earnings guidance. This is coupled with pending regulatory risk in the UK and a stretched balanced sheet.

The company has abandoned its FY16 guidance because of the underperformance of the UK operations, warning that it now appears interim cash flow will be materially worse than expected in the first half and with a softer second half recovery.

SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) Downgrade to Sell from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/2/2

October's Medicare stats indicated a grim industry outlook and now MYEFO has brought substantial cuts to pathology and imaging benefits. US Medicare has proposed changes to become effective in 2017 and Citi also expects a fee cut in Germany, all of which are negative for Sonic.

Citi has cut its FY16 earnings forecasts by 15-21% over FY16-18, leading to a reduction in target to $16.04 from $22.01 and a downgrade to Sell from Buy.

MYEFO has proposed changes to bulk-billing for pathology and imaging which if enacted will have a material impact on diagnostic providers, Credit Suisse notes.

Adjusting for forex forecast changes, the broker has reduced Sonic forecast earnings by 6%. Target falls to $18.60 from $20.50 and rating downgraded to Underperform.

TIGER RESOURCES LIMITED ((TGS)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Contracting demand for most commodities and falling cost curves have driven a material reduction to Macquarie's outlook for commodity prices, particularly for bulks and base metals.

Tiger Resources is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform, given the downgrade to the broker's medium-term outlook for copper. Target is reduced to 4c from 13c.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/1

Macquarie expects the resources pain to intensify and has downgraded its outlook for coal, alumina/aluminium and manganese substantially.

Stocks with elevated gearing such as Whitehaven Coal are likely to experience increased focus on cash-flow break-even points, the broker maintains. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform. Target is reduced to 30c from $1.30.

See also WHC upgrade.

WESTERN AREAS NL ((WSA)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Deutsche Bank observes the mining sector is under severe stress, with most companies trading below replacement value, an indication the sector is oversold.

The broker now expects Western Areas to report negative earnings in FY16. While the stock has de-rated significantly, based on the broker's revised commodity forecasts the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target is lowered to $2.30 from $3.20.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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