Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 27, 2021

This story features APA GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APA

FNArena will be updating Special Editions of this Report in September dedicated to the August Reporting Season.

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APA   BVS (2)   CWP   FLT   FWD   HMC (2)   IEL   LOV   MAH   MHJ   MPL   NSR   PPC   PRU   PTM   RMS   SKC   SLK   WTC  

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.66

Goldman Sachs rates ((APA)) as Neutral (3) –

APA Group's FY21 underlying earnings of $1,1643m and profit after tax of $282m were both in-line with Goldman Sachs' expectations. Corporate costs for the year were up around -$25m on strategic growth investment in Australia and the US.

Given APA Group's share price has underperformed AusNet Services by around 11% in 2021, Goldman Sachs expects investors to continue to take a cautious approach to the company's inorganic growth strategy.

The broker highlights market impact from LNG import terminals is likely incrementally negative, and is a driving factor of Goldman Sachs' cautious outlook.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.45 from $10.20.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $8.66 Difference: $1.79
If APA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.06, suggesting upside of 16.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BVS    BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $3.20

Goldman Sachs rates ((BVS)) as Buy (1) –

Bravura Solutions is guiding to mid-teen profit after tax growth in FY22. Goldman Sachs expects results to be somewhat weighted to the second half, but less pronounced than in FY21.

The broker notes company guidance is a -2% miss on consensus forecasts at the mid-point. Goldman Sachs updates earnings per share forecasts by -1.9% and -5.5% for FY22 and FY23, implying a 12% three-year earnings per share compound annual growth rate. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.70 from $3.90.

This report was published on August 25, 2021. 

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.5
If BVS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.33.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.82.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((BVS)) as Underweight (2) –

FY21 profit for Bravura Solutions was a slight beat versus Jarden's expectation, and at the low-end of consensus forecasts. The second half had -$6m of cost reductions, as well as a period of higher capitalisation, explains the analyst.

Wealth Management was the main driver of a lift in revenues from the first half to the second, with the start of the Aware Super contract and contributions from the Delta acquisition.

Guidance implies to the broker earnings reductions into FY22 relative to an annualised second half performance. Jarden raises its target price to $2.95 from $2.87 and maintains its Underweight rating.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If BVS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.33.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.65.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CWP    CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $6.15

Euroz Hartleys rates ((CWP)) as Buy (1) –

Cedar Woods Properties' FY21 profit after tax of $32.8m was a 61% increase on FY20 results, and a beat on the $32.0m guidance provided in April. 

Euroz Hartleys highlighted presales of $478m imply strong fourth quarter sales compared to $426m at the end of the third quarter. It is the broker's view the significant earnings increase delivered in FY21 will continue into FY22 and FY23.

Cedar Woods is Buy rated with a target price of $8.10.

This report was published on August 26, 2021.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: $1.95
If CWP meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $19.79

JP Morgan rates ((FLT)) as Underweight (5) –

JP Morgan increases its price target to $14 from $12.50 after FY21 results eased concerns around liquidity and the impacts of the A&NZ lockdowns. Client wins during the pandemic have the analyst more confident on the corporate segment.

Assuming a -$35m cash burn, the broker estimates liquidity to early 2023. Management plans to grow online total transaction volume (TTV) to $3.6bn, which implies to JP Morgan growth of 2.6x.

This report was published on August 27, 2021.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $19.79 Difference: minus $5.79 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.09, suggesting downside of -13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 71.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -51.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is -0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of -0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FWD    FLEETWOOD LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.27

Euroz Hartleys rates ((FWD)) as Buy (1) –

Highlights of Fleetwood Limited's FY21 results were a revenue increase of 9% on the previous year, up to $360.1m, and an earnings before tax increase of 18%, up to $26.3m. Results were sound overall according to Euroz Harleys.

Looking ahead, the broker notes opportunity in the Building Solutions division, which is taking a $103m orderbook and a $438m bid pipeline into FY22. 

Euroz Hartleys has a Buy rating for Fleetwood with a target price of $3.00.

This report was published on August 26, 2021.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.73
If FWD meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HOME CONSORTIUM

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.91

Goldman Sachs rates ((HMC)) as Buy (1) –

It is Goldman Sach's view that Home Consortium is well progressed in its transition to a capital light fund manager. The company has executed on strategy faster than expected, and has accelerated asset under management targets to $5bn by end of 2022 and $10bn by end of 2024.

To achieve targets, the company plans to increase exposure in the Large Format Retail and Healthcare spaces. The broker considers Home Consortium to have sufficient liquidity to fund growth and scale the platform towards the target.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.40 from $5.93.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: minus $1.51 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting downside of -29.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 25.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Buy (2) –

While FY21 funds from operations (FFO) were above the company's guidance of no less than 12.9c it was -1.5% shy of Jarden's estimate. Guidance for FY22 is considered strong for FFO of 18.5c, which on an after-tax basis implies around 37% growth on FY21.

The REIT is one of the fastest growing within the broker's coverage. One risk is thought to be downtime associated with reinvesting cash as the REIT becomes an asset-light manager. Jarden raises its target price to $6.20 from $5 and retains its Overweight rating.

Management has ambitions to become Australia's alternative asset manager of the future, with aspirations in the private equity, infrastructure and credit areas.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $7.91 Difference: minus $1.71 (current price is over target).
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.60, suggesting downside of -29.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 25.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $32.84

Jarden rates ((IEL)) as Buy (2) –

Following FY21 results, Jarden feels investors will focus more on the outlook and recovery profile. The company is considered well capitalised and the analyst estimates net debt of -$7m for the period ending December 2021.

The broker believes pent-up demand in the company's platform appears a material opportunity as supply chain challenges are easing for the multi-destination (MD) student placement agent business.

All-time high computer-delivered test volumes and qualified leads for MD illustrate robust demand to the analyst. The price target rises to $32.08 from $31.36 and the Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $32.08 Current Price is $32.84 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If IEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.16, suggesting upside of 1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 21.80 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 103.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 171.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 84.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.80 cents and EPS of 61.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of 62.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $19.35

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Buy (2) –

Following FY21 results, Jarden can see a solid recovery in progress. Earnings were considered driven by the recovery in A&NZ sales up by 27% and 83% for the US. Global comparative sales growth (excluding store closures) was 8.1% better than expected.

The first eight weeks of FY22 were tracking well ahead of consensus estimates with comparative sales growth of 37.8% and revenue up 56% on the previous corresponding period. The broker lifts its target price to $15.92 from $12.71

While net store adds of 22 (excluding beeline) in FY21 were below Jarden's estimate of 51, an average of 71 net store adds per year is forecast over FY22-24. This assumes lease negotiations recover when lockdowns ease around the world.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $15.92 Current Price is $19.35 Difference: minus $3.43 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.89, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 39.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.5, implying annual growth of 92.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 58.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of 34.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.20

Jarden rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

MacMahon Holdings reported FY21 underlying earnings (EBIT) in-line with Jarden expectations  and ahead of the consensus forecast. Earnings margins expanded over the period to 7% from 6.6% in FY20 and cash conversion was greater than 100%.

The broker maintains its $0.35 price target and Buy rating. There's thought to be a positive earnings outlook, while the balance sheet and cash profile remain relatively low risk.

Guidance for FY22 revenue of between $1.4 -1.5bn and underlying earnings of $95-105m supports the analyst's forecasts and confidence in them.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.15
If MAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 2.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.41.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.50 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ    MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury – Overnight Price: $0.86

Jarden rates ((MHJ)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden assesses a solid FY21 result ahead of expectations (record earnings result) though cautions on optimism around year-on-year growth due to covid-impacted prior period comparisons. Also, allowances should be made for $14.7m of FY21 government grants. 

While management noted significant lost sales in the first seven weeks of FY22 due to lockdowns in Australia, there was 17% group same store sales growth in the period.

A final dividend of 3cps was declared. The broker lifts its target to NZ$1.15 from NZ$1.10 and maintains its Buy rating, the latter reflecting significant projected valuation upside and an attractive forward earnings multiple. A net cash position also assists the rating.

This report was published on August 25, 2021. 

Current Price is $0.86. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.62.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.56.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.57

Jarden rates ((MPL)) as Neutral (3) –

FY21 profit was -2% below Jarden's forecast, partly reflecting one-off M&A costs, with group operating profit of $528m broadly in-line. First half momentum improved in the second half, with underlying policy growth of 3.5%.

The underlying net margin (excluding covid) was 7.8% for FY21 up from 7.3% in the first half. The analyst expects the underlying net margin to edge higher in FY22 with any additional covid-claims savings from lockdowns returned to customers.

The Neutral rating is retained given a high current multiple and with net margins and policy growth likely to moderate in outer years as covid tailwinds ease, explains the broker. The target price rises to $3.40 from $3.30.

This report was published on August 25, 2021. 

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting downside of -1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR    NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.36

Jarden rates ((NSR)) as Neutral (3) –

Following EPS upgrades after FY21 results, the operating outperformance year-to-date and despite a lift in target price to $2.20 from $2.10, Jarden believes the shares are fairly valued. The Neutral rating is retained.

The analyst points out despite an earnings compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% since IPO, EPS of 8.2cps in FY21 was the same as in FY15. This is despite revenue per available square metre (RevPAM) growth and close to $2bn of acquisitions.

The broker feels this highlights the inherent volatility in operating performance and the acquisition strategy.

This report was published August 25, 2021.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting downside of -7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of -70.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPC    PEET LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $1.06

Euroz Hartleys rates ((PPC)) as Buy (1) –

Peet's FY21 results highlighted profit after tax of $28.5m, an 89% increase on the previous year, while sales growth was up 35% and value of contracts on hand was up 28% to $547m. 

Euroz Hartleys acknowledges while market conditions are described as supportive, potential covid impacts create uncertainty on the outlook. Expect net debt to increase over FY22, but the broker expects solid growth over the next two years.

Peet is Buy rated with a target price of $1.54.

This report was published on August 26, 2021.

Target price is $1.54 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.48
If PPC meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRU    PERSEUS MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.41

Euroz Hartleys rates ((PRU)) as Buy (1) –

Perseus Mining's FY21 result highlights 15% revenue growth on the previous year to $680m, 11% underlying earnings growth to $303m, and 48% profit after tax growth to $139m. 

Euroz Hartleys notes results were driven by cost and revenue treatment for the Yaoure project and a -22% decrease in depreciation and amortisation. Looking ahead, the broker estimates FY22 production of 512,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of US$949 per ounce.

The company has declared a dividend policy of minimum 1% annual yield semi-annual dividend payments. 

The Buy rating is retained with a target price of $1.80.

This report was published on August 26, 2021.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.39
If PRU meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.70, suggesting upside of 20.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 81.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM    PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $3.52

Jarden rates ((PTM)) as Buy (2) –

Following FY21 results, Jarden lowers its target price to $3.80 from $4 with continued sizeable outflows and an expanding cost base (higher staff costs) set to weigh on EPS. The FY21 EPS was broadly in-line with the analyst's expectation and the consensus forecast. 

Staff costs account for circa 30% of total costs. With costs expected to grow by -5.5% and assets under management (AUM) set to fall -4.5% in FY22, the analyst expects FY22 EPS to fall -19% versus the previous corresponding period. Underweight rating unchanged.

The 3-year weighted-average relative performance was stable at -3.5% as at June-21, while the 1-year relative performance has deteriorated to 0.5% from 3.9%.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.28
If PTM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.85, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.30 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.6, implying annual growth of -16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.31

Euroz Hartleys rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

Highlights of Ramelius Resources' FY21 results include a 38% year-on-year revenue increase to $634m, a 33% underlying earnings increase to $341m, and a 12% profit after tax increase to $127m. 

Euroz Hartleys notes the company also announced a fully franked dividend of 2.5 cents per share, a beat on the broker's expected 2.0 cents per share.

Looking ahead, the company is guiding to FY22 production of 260-300,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,425-1,525 per ounce, and capital expenditure and exploration costs of -$104m.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.90 from $2.03.

This report was issued August 26, 2021.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.59
If RMS meets the Euroz Hartleys target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 61.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of -36.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of -4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKC    SKYCITY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $3.10

Jarden rates ((SKC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden assesses a strong fourth quarter, coming in at the top end of pre-guidance. Margin improvement was considered to derive from electronic gaming machine (EGM) strength and operating efficiencies. There was a return to dividends with NZ$7cps declared.

While no guidance was provided, the analyst assumes 4-6 weeks of covid lockdown and cuts FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -10% and makes more modest changes thereafter.

The Overweight rating is unchanged on valuation grounds. Domestic play earnings are considered to underpin when properties are open and the broker suggests further leverage is possible once borders reopen in the medium term.

The target price decreases to NZ$3.70 from NZ$3.75.

This report was published on August 25, 2021.

Current Price is $3.10. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 9.37 cents and EPS of 11.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.12 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLK    SEALINK TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $9.05

JP Morgan rates ((SLK)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

On a divisional basis FY21 results were broadly in-line with JP Morgan's expectations though the International Business segment was a miss, as London continues to be a challenging market.

Should two new significant contracts be won, the analyst estimates Australian Business revenue would grow 57% to above $1bn per annum. The broker retains its Overweight rating and $10.50 target price.

This report was published on august 26, 2021.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: $1.45
If SLK meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting upside of 10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 96.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 23.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC    WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $53.19

Jarden rates ((WTC)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

While Jarden assesses only a slight revenue beat after FY21 results, the broker did see a strong earnings (EBITDA) result and outlook. Earnings were considered driven by better-than-expected cost-out, and margins normalising towards the core Cargowise margins.

FY22 guidance for cost-out is for -$40m (previously -$20-30m). Expansion of FY22 margins is expected by the analyst as incremental gains from global customer roll-outs onto the platform at a low incremental investment help drive up the customer lifetime value (LTV).

The broker believes the strong FY21 organic growth lessens investor concerns on the growth profile. Guidance for 30-40% organic growth in FY22 is considered supportive of the underlying business. The target price rises to $50 from $31. Overweight rating retained.

This report was published on August 26, 2021.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $53.19 Difference: minus $3.19 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $39.13, suggesting downside of -26.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 29.40 cents and EPS of 48.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 109.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of 41.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 113.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.80 cents and EPS of 65.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.4, implying annual growth of 41.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 80.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

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