Daily Market Reports | Jul 13 2022
This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
A2M ABY AX1 BLX BML BRG BWX CGC CRN EDV EM2 GQG JBH MFG MP1 NCK OZL PMV SDR SUL WES WHC WOW WTC XRO
A2M A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED
Dairy – Overnight Price: $4.50
Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Neutral (3) –
Jarden believes a2 Milk Co is on-track to broadly deliver on 2H expectations. Should this occur, it's felt this would add to evidence that demand for the brand remains "healthy".
The broker points out longer-term birth rates in China remain a key headwind. When these lower rates are combined with a higher weighted average cost of capital (WACC)) in the analyst's financial model, the target price falls to NZ$5.00 from NZ$6.40. Neutral.
This report was published on July 11, 2022.
Current Price is $4.50. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.45, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.22.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.46.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 31.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ABY ADORE BEAUTY GROUP LIMITED
Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $0.98
Jarden rates ((ABY)) as Buy (1) –
Online-only retailers may return to favour in an inflationary environment, suggests Jarden, with employee costs and rent being largely fixed, rather than scaling up with store rollouts or sales.
The broker feels low expectations for Adore Beauty’s full year results could be an opportunity for investors. It’s thought the market will continue to focus on costs (given the inflationary backdrop) and it is here an upside surprise may occur.
While the analyst makes no changes to forecasts, the target price falls to $2.84 from $3.07 as a result of an increase in the rate used in the financial model for weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The Buy rating is unchanged.
This report was published on July 11, 2022.
Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $1.86
If ABY meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 190% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.82.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.79.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AX1 ACCENT GROUP LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.34
Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Overweight (2) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
The analyst makes conservative estimates for Accent Group given revenues may suffer as a number of premium brands and gross margins may face headwinds from the direction of exchange rate and promotional spend (when the supply chain normalises).
The target price is set at $2.00 and the Overweight rating is maintained.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.66
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.38, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of -47.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 54.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BLX BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED
Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.90
Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
The analyst lifts the FY22 EPS forecast for Beacon Lighting by around 6.2%, to reflect stronger revenue forecasts for Australia and International channels. Gross margins are expected to be flat. A target price of $2.00 is set. Overweight.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.1
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BML BOAB METALS LIMITED
Mining – Overnight Price: $0.18
Shaw and Partners rates ((BML)) as Buy (1) –
Shaw and Partners is expecting a Definitive Feasibility Study for Boab Metals' Sorby-Hills project to be delivered in the second half of 2022, noting the study is expected to outline a materially larger project than described in the 2020 Pre-Feasibility Study given increases to resource size and quality.
The broker notes Boab Metals has taken key steps in the last quarter to allow site preparation to commence ahead of the wet season, including receiving an amendment to the EPA approval to allow early works to commence.
The Buy rating and target price of $1.00 are retained.
This report was published on July 12, 2022.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.82
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 456% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.20.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.00.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BRG BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $19.11
Goldman Sachs rates ((BRG)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs reviews the outlook for Australian discretionary consumption expenditure based on the latest forecasts for household income and high inflation from the macro economic team.
The broker analysed historical savings rates and savings usage to conclude a preference for defensive goods in the 'premium/functional sector.
Retailers exposed to housing, mass apparel and general merchandise are most at risk cites Goldman Sachs and overall the broker lowers sales and margin outlook.
Goldman Sachs re-initiates with a Buy rating on Breville Group with strong secular growth opportunities in the Roast & Ground coffee market, new entry into Mexico, France, Portugal, Italy and South Korea and ongoing investment in digital platforms.
The broker forecasts a CAGR earnings of 14.9% for FY22-FY24. A Buy rating. The price target is $23.40.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $23.40 Current Price is $19.11 Difference: $4.29
If BRG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 33.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.82.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.2, implying annual growth of 15.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.23.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.9, implying annual growth of 10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BWX BWX LIMITED
Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $0.73
Moelis rates ((BWX)) as Hold (3) –
Following a significant guidance downgrade to FY22 earnings by BWX, which subsequently triggered a $23.2m capital raise, Moelis lowers its target price to $0.87 from $1.59.
The downgrade was largely due to a halt in normal channel stuffing practices at the end of June, which the broker considers to be sensible. Management also provided FY23 guidance for underlying revenue of $260-270m and earnings (EBITDA) of $45-49m.
The analyst retains a Hold rating after downgrading FY22-24 EPS estimates by more than -50% to incorporate substantially lower revenue, dilution from the capital raise and higher than expected depreciation costs from the transition to a new distribution centre.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.14
If BWX meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.88, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.59.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Forecast for FY23:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.21.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CGC COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.60
Goldman Sachs rates ((CGC)) as Buy (1) –
Costa Group Holdings' provided a 1H22 market update resulting in some minor earnings revisions to forecasts from Goldman Sachs.
The broker noted there continues to be strong domestic pricing across a number of products – truss tomatoes, mushrooms and citrus.
Goldman Sachs also highlighted that wet weather events had produced some quality issues for citrus (2PH business), Riverland and Sunraysia, weighting earnings to the 2H22.
Following the update, Goldman Sachs has marginally adjusted earnings -0.4% and -2.3% for FY22 and FY23, respectively.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.65 from $3.80.
This report was published on July 11, 2022.
Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1.05
If CGC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.29.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 48.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.38.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 33.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC
Coal – Overnight Price: $1.55
Bell Potter rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –
With Coronado Global Resources guiding to a second half production skew from its Curragh operation, Bell Potter is anticipating a soft production result in the upcoming quarterly result, with the site focused on waste stripping and plant maintenance in the June quarter.
Positively, the broker expects lagged contract pricing to deliver earnings flat or above the March quarter. Softer coal pricing in the June quarter has reduced anticipated realised pricing in the second half by -8% for coking coal, but lifted the broker's long-term price estimate to US$160/tonne.
The broker anticipates a strong met coal outlook will support Coronado Global Resources in generating strong free cash flow. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.15 from $2.50.
This report was published on July 8, 2022.
Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.6
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 77.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 64.81 cents and EPS of 106.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 41.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.46.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 43.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1.7.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.19 cents and EPS of 50.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 31.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.09.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.5, implying annual growth of -36.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 30.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EDV ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $7.90
Goldman Sachs rates ((EDV)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs remains positive on Endeavour Group.
The broker notes ongoing market share gains for the company in the defensive alcohol retail market and sees Endeavour as a beneficiary from reopening of the hotels/pubs business.
Ongoing growth in capital expenditure in the hotels business is another key growth driver of earnings, cites Goldman Sachs. Earnings estimates are maintained.
The Target price is unchanged at $8.30 with the Buy rating retained.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: $0.4
If EDV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting downside of -5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.60 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.60.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.69.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EM2 EAGLE MOUNTAIN MINING LIMITED
Mining – Overnight Price: $0.22
Shaw and Partners rates ((EM2)) as Buy (1) –
Shaw and Partners notes potential growth to Eagle Mountain Mining's Oracle Ridge Mineral Resource Estimate, with drilling continuing to intercept mineralised zones outside the initial resource.
The current resource estimate of 17m tonnes remains open in several directions, with potential to expand mineralisation. The broker notes a JORC update is expected within the quarter, and is the next catalyst for the stock to reach the target price.
The Buy rating and target price of $0.47 are retained.
This report was published on July 12, 2022.
Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.25
If EM2 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 114% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.86.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.86.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GQG GQG PARTNERS, INC
Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.25
Goldman Sachs rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –
GQG Partners updated the market with the June FUM, down -8%, and -5% for 1H22 noted Goldman Sachs.
Despite the fall in FUM, Goldman Sachs highlighted the better than expected net inflows for the June quarter of $2.8bn, beating the broker's 1H22 forecast of $5.5bn to $6.2bn.
Goldman Sachs has reduced earnings forecasts by -9% in FY22 and -12.3% in FY23 with lower fees due to reduced FUM.
The price target falls to $1.96 from $2.23 and the Buy rating is maintained.
This report was published on July 11, 2022.
Target price is $1.96 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.71
If GQG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.89.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JBH JB HI-FI LIMITED
Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $39.34
Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
Despite Jarden holding an Underweight stance on household goods names, its forecasts are above consensus for JB Hi-Fi given lower operating leverage and supplier funded discounts. Forecasts for FY23 onwards are cut and a target price of $38.90 is set.
The Underweight rating is unchanged.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $38.90 Current Price is $39.34 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $47.00, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 289.00 cents and EPS of 442.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.90.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 419.6, implying annual growth of -4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 276.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 251.00 cents and EPS of 375.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.48.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 342.5, implying annual growth of -18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $11.89
Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Underweight (4) –
Jarden cuts its target price for Magellan Financial to $9.75 from $10.25 following lower forecast earnings due to an expectation for ongoing fund outflows.
Funds under management (FUM) of $61.3bn at June 30 were announced, which was a -2% miss versus the broker. Also, there were no performance fees in the 2H, in-line with Jarden’s expectation, though below the consensus estimate of $9.5m.
The analyst also expects the funds management cost base to exceed the midpoint of guidance, given current inflationary pressures and no immediate plans to manage costs in-line with flows. Underweight.
This report was published on July 11, 2022.
Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $11.89 Difference: minus $2.14 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.62, suggesting downside of -3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 192.40 cents and EPS of 226.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.24.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 217.1, implying annual growth of 50.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 15.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 107.60 cents and EPS of 123.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.67.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 121.7, implying annual growth of -43.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MP1 MEGAPORT LIMITED
Cloud services – Overnight Price: $6.15
Goldman Sachs rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs reviews Australian Technology stocks in light of a number of factors – declining global and business confidence; weakness in the AUD; a de-rating of the sector (multiple contraction) and adjusts price targets for rising rates expectations.
The broker maintains a positive outlook for Megaport despite the recent challenges from management departures, execution problems and a weakening in business hardware spending.
Goldman Sachs expects the cost saving benefits from Megaport's products and the networking effects will help with maintaining a strong growth profile.
The broker raises forecast earnings 2% for FY23. A Buy rating is maintained and the price target is lowered to $9.00 from $13.00.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: $2.85
If MP1 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.23, suggesting upside of 102.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.29.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -23.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.18.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NCK NICK SCALI LIMITED
Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $8.50
Jarden rates ((NCK)) as Neutral (3) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
The broker sets a $9.40 target price for Nick Scali and maintains a Neutral rating. Overall, forecast earnings are only marginally lowered, while FY23 forecasts are boosted by the Plush acquisition.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: $0.9
If NCK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 84.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.92%.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.56%.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
OZL OZ MINERALS LIMITED
Copper – Overnight Price: $16.29
Bell Potter rates ((OZL)) as Buy (1) –
Bell Potter notes a recent production downgrade from OZ Minerals has the company now guiding to full year production of 120-135,000 tonnes, down -10,500 tonnes from previous guidance, while cost guidance has lifted to US$1.05-1.20 a pound, up US22.5 cents a pound.
The broker notes OZ Minerals' Prominent Hill and Carrapateena sites were both impacted by the absenteeism plaguing producers, as well as weather events which drove operations and material handling issues for Carrapateena.
Bell Potter reduces its earnings per share forecasts -19%, -9% and -3% through to 2024. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $26.17 from $27.53.
This report was published on July 8, 2022.
Target price is $26.17 Current Price is $16.29 Difference: $9.88
If OZL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.21, suggesting upside of 37.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 135.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.4, implying annual growth of -15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 135.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.6, implying annual growth of 0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $19.81
Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Overweight (2) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
The analyst takes a more cautious view on Premier Investments to reflect potential moderation in online growth and margins declining toward pre-covid levels. A target price of $18.60 is set and the Overweight rating is maintained.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $18.60 Current Price is $19.81 Difference: minus $1.21 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.35, suggesting upside of 30.1%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.6, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.8, implying annual growth of -12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SDR SITEMINDER LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $3.43
Goldman Sachs rates ((SDR)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs reviews Australian Technology stocks in light of a number of factors – declining global and business confidence; weakness in the AUD; a de-rating of the sector (multiple contraction) and adjusts price targets for rising rates expectations.
The broker notes the rising risks of a global recession could lead to higher churn and offset the stronger than expected recovery in global travel for SiteMinder.
A Neutral rating is maintained and the price target is lowered to $4.20 from $5.80.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.77
If SDR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 75.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2450.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -23.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2858.33.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.18
Jarden rates ((SUL)) as Overweight (2) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
Jarden cuts forecasts for BCF and Rebel given exposures to discretionary spend, while Auto should be less impacted (going on overseas trends), despite higher fuel prices. A target price of $9.70 is set and the Overweight rating is unchanged.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $9.18 Difference: $0.52
If SUL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 25.3%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.5, implying annual growth of -24.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.4, implying annual growth of -17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WES WESFARMERS LIMITED
Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $44.78
Jarden rates ((WES)) as Overweight (2) –
While risks are becoming more balanced, Jarden lowers forecasts for stocks under its coverage in the Discretionary Retail sector to reflect a weaker outlook.
The broker lifts its cost-of-doing-business forecasts across its coverage, which lowers its EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 by -3-4% for household goods and -15-19% for fashion/recreation.
Jarden cuts forecasts for Wesfarmers to reflect a more pronounced housing downturn and deteriorating discretionary spend into FY23. A target price of $44.40 is set and the Overweight rating is unchanged.
This report was published on July 7, 2022.
Target price is $44.40 Current Price is $44.78 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $48.43, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.0, implying annual growth of -7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3.
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WHC WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED
Coal – Overnight Price: $5.16
Bell Potter rates ((WHC)) as Buy (1) –
Bell Potter is anticipating Whitehaven Coal will deliver a strong finish to the year, supported by production from both Maules Creek and Narrabri.
The broker notes Newcastle coal pricing in the June quarter was 25% above expectations. This has inspired Bell Potter to lift its forward estimates 45% and 21% for FY23 and FY24 respectively.
Bell Potter is anticipating short northern hemisphere supply will support strong prices into 2023. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.30 from $4.40.
This report was published on July 8, 2022.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.16 Difference: $0.14
If WHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.37, suggesting upside of 19.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 161.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.20.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 211.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 28.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.44.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.2, implying annual growth of 38.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 14.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WOW WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $37.16
Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs upgrades Woolworths Group to the Australia & NZ Conviction List and reiterates a Buy rating.
The broker notes three factors for Woolworths re-rating – the growth in core business through market share gain; growth in the media business and an expansion in the multiple premium to Coles to the historic level of 4.0x versus the current 1.8x.
Goldman Sachs slightly downgrades earnings by -3.4% for FY22 and FY23 to reflect lower food pricing and higher cuts to Big W, as well as lower corporate expenses.
The Buy rating is reiterated and the price target is cut to $40.50 and $41.70.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $40.50 Current Price is $37.16 Difference: $3.34
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.22, suggesting downside of -0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.97.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.7, implying annual growth of -26.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.61.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.0, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WTC WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED
Cloud services – Overnight Price: $41.12
Goldman Sachs rates ((WTC)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs reviews Australian Technology stocks in light of a number of factors – declining global and business confidence; weakness in the AUD; a de-rating of the sector (multiple contraction) and adjusts price targets for rising rates expectations.
The broker notes WiseTech Global's exposure to softening global trade through its Cargo Wise software, around 50% of revenues on a transaction basis.
Goldman Sachs adjusts earnings marginally, up 1% for FY23 for lower volume growth which is offset by higher pricing and the adjusted FX rates.
The Neutral rating is retained and the price target reduces to $45 from $53.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $41.12 Difference: $3.88
If WTC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.34, suggesting upside of 15.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.92.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.1, implying annual growth of 53.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 82.1.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.32.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.9, implying annual growth of 32.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
XRO XERO LIMITED
Accountancy – Overnight Price: $84.28
Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs reviews Australian Technology stocks in light of a number of factors – declining global and business confidence; weakness in the AUD; a de-rating of the sector (multiple contraction) and adjusts price targets for rising rates expectations.
The broker notes Xero is well placed to weather the challenges of the SME business environment and cites the importance of Xero's software to the sector.
Goldman Sachs adjusts the earnings for the lower AUD and higher customer churn versus the growth in ARPU from price increases.
Buy rating maintained and the price target is reduced to $113 from $118 to reflect a lower valuation multiple.
This report was published on July 10, 2022.
Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $84.28 Difference: $28.72
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $98.88, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 346.10.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 271.7.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 42.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 199.97.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.7, implying annual growth of 118.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 124.2.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.
Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.
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