Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 01, 2022

This story features PENTANET LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 5GG

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

5GG   ASG (3)   AUB   AWC   CDP   COL   CXL (2)   DMP   EBO   ECF   ELO (4)   EML   ENN   FCL (2)   GEM   HMC   HSN   HUB   ILU   LGL   MAD   MAH   MND   ORR   PBP   PFP   PPM (2)   PTM   REG   SCG   SHL   SRG   TAH   TLC   TRJ   TRS   WAF   XPN  

5GG    PENTANET LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.33

Shaw and Partners rates ((5GG)) as Buy (1) –

Pentanet's FY22 result disappointed Shaw and Partners by -4.5% due to lower-than-forecast on-net adds. The broker now awaits execution on the early rollout of neXus.

Lower capital expenditure managed to more than offset a miss on operating cash outflow, leaving net cash of $13.4m, compared with the broker's forecast $10.8m.

Earnings (EBITDA) revenue and subscriber forecasts all fall. Buy high-risk rating retained. Target price rises to 41c from 40c.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.08
If 5GG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.15

Jarden rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (2) –

Profit forecasts by Jarden and consensus were exceeded by 2% when Autosports Group reported FY22 results, which revealed strong operating margins. Strong margins per vehicle offset supply shortages.

Used vehicles performed strongly despite tight supply, while revenue for Service and parts rose by 9.2% and 8.5%, respectively.

Management noted new vehicle demand is exceeding supply, and expects gradual improvement in supply through FY23 and FY24.

The broker raises its target to $3.62 from $3.32 on higher FY23 and FY24 earnings forecasts, partly due to a higher gross margin assumption for the agency model and ongoing elevated margins on vehicles. The Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.62 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $1.47
If ASG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 30.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.03.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((ASG)) as Buy (1) –

Autosports Group delivered a strong result according to Moelis, underpinned by better than expected margins. The company reported revenue of $1.9bn, earnings of $112.4m, and net profit of $63.4m.

Gross profit margins grew to 19.2% over the year, partly benefiting from the transition to an agency model. The broker notes demand continues to outpace supply, with Autosports Group's order bank growing a further 66% since December, and does not anticipate this to change in the near-term.

An eventual normalisation of margins remains a concern for the broker, but it finds this largely accounted for in the share price. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.50 from $2.90.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.35
If ASG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.70 cents and EPS of 35.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.13.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 22.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.43.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (1) –

FY22 results were ahead of forecasts with higher margins that were underpinned by favourable vehicle supply/demand. Wilsons also notes effective cost containment and expects the favourable dynamics will stay in place for longer.

No explicit guidance was provided by Autosports Group, although new vehicle demand is expected to continue exceeding supply and FY23 growth is expected at 6-9%.

Wilsons revises dividend assumptions in line with the guidance of a payout ratio of 55-70%. Target is reduced to $3.17 from $3.28 and an Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $1.02
If ASG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $22.21

Jarden rates ((AUB)) as Buy (1) –

Despite in-line FY22 results for AUB Group, Jarden notes margin improvements across all divisions offset weaker revenue, and retains its Buy rating.

Second half revenue growth suggests to the analyst growth accelerated to over 10% in the June quarter, up from 6% in the March quarter.

Management noted revenue from the yet-to-be-completed Tysers acquisition is tracking ahead of expectations. The delay in completion has resulted in a -5.4% lower FY23 EPS forecast and the target falls to $27.20 from $27.45. 

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $22.21 Difference: $4.99
If AUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.15, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 118.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.8, implying annual growth of -30.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 95.30 cents and EPS of 152.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.3, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC    ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $1.52

Shaw and Partners rates ((AWC)) as Buy (1) –

The AWAC JV, of which Alumina Ltd owns 40%, delivered a strong June first-half in the face of rising costs. The company's dividend of 4.2c, outpaced Shaw and Partners' forecast of 4c.

But the broker doubts the dividend will hold up in the December half as losses in Spain rise due to spiralling energy costs and gobble up cash and compress margins. The JV has curtailed -15% of its European capacity.

There are plenty of moving parts, from aluminium pricery, bauxite, and the potential for curtailment of the Spanish operations.

Management guides to cuts in production and believes unit cost pressures have peaked. Buy rating and $2 target price retained. 

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: $0.48
If AWC meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 14.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.53 cents and EPS of 12.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.56 cents and EPS of 10.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDP    CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.45

Moelis rates ((CDP)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results were slightly below Moelis' forecasts. Guidance is for a distribution of 26.25c, up 5% on FY22. The broker lowers medium-term earnings estimates for Carindale Property Trust as growth in net property income is offset by factoring in higher interest rates.

Yet balance sheet gearing has reduced to 32% and the shopping centre continues to improve its performance post the height of the pandemic. Buy rating retained. Target is $6.62.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $6.62 Current Price is $4.45 Difference: $2.17
If CDP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.30 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 35.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.54.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $17.56

Jarden rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

Coles Group benefited from easing covid costs and stronger gross margins in 2H, and FY22 earnings (EBIT) landed 2% ahead of the consensus forecast.

While FY22 results were in line overall, the broker assesses a lower quality on softer revenue momentum and higher guidance for cost-of-doing-business in FY23 and FY24.

It's also thought the underlying food result was circa 3% overstated, by the inclusion of one-off and lower project delivery costs.

The analyst cuts FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts by -4% and -7%, respectively, on higher costs and the target eases to $18.20 from $18.50. Neutral.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $17.56 Difference: $0.64
If COL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.74, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $6.64

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity found no surprises in Calix's full year result, but the broker has revised its revenue forecasts down -15% and -14%.

Looking forward, the broker noted the company continues to target delivery of a license agreement for LEILAC in the coming year having initially aimed to reach a deal in FY22. 

Calix also looks to formalise its joint venture with Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) in the coming months, and expects to deliver a final investment decision in the first half of FY23.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $10.00 from $10.60.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $3.36
If CXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 116.49.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 147.56.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results have revealed ESG tailwinds for Calix and its Calciner technology. The company reported an FY22 operating loss, compared with break even in FY21, because of the impact of R&D tax rebate treatment and timing of grant income.

Shaw and Partners notes water has been the revenue driver historically and still presents numerous growth opportunities.

On the other hand, carbon dioxide mitigation provides the greatest upside and the broker believes the company can deliver a positive outcome for its shareholders, given ongoing project discussions.

Ultimately revenue and profit will be a function of the timing and quantum of any contract or project wins within each of its five segments. Shaw and Partners transfers coverage to a new analyst and raises the target to $8.50 from $8.25. Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $6.64 Difference: $1.86
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 97.65.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 135.51.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $63.55

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

A marked deterioration in 4Q European trading (a -12% miss versus consensus forecasts) due to geopolitical issues largely drove a -4% miss versus FY22 consensus for Domino's Pizza Enterprises.

Performance was impacted by lower margins and a challenging 2H, with rising costs, falling confidence and cycling of lockdowns, explains the analyst.

Management notes the Australian business is outperforming and expect the outlook to improve in FY23, partly from the lagged impact of price increases and the announced Malaysia/Cambodia/Singapore acquisitions.

After incorporating the acquisitions and allowing for the outlook, the broker lowers its target to $89 from $93 and retains its Overweight rating.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $63.55 Difference: $25.45
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $84.32, suggesting upside of 32.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 185.00 cents and EPS of 225.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.1, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 278.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.4, implying annual growth of 18.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 205.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EBO    EBOS GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $34.44

Jarden rates ((EBO)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

FY22 results for Ebos Group were a slight beat at the operating level compared to Jarden’s forecasts for both divisions. Earnings margins improved as volume growth and other efficiencies outweighed 2H inflationary pressures for labour, freight and costs.

The Contract Logistics segment continues to benefit from covid-related demand in New Zealand and share gains in Australia. To capitalise further, a new distribution centre in Sydney is now largely complete and a further centre is planned for Auckland.

However, the broker cuts its rating for Ebos Group to Neutral from Overweight on lower EPS forecasts due to interest costs (from a higher debt position), an increased D&A spend and reinvestment (capex and working capital). 

The target falls by -2.5% to NZ$39 after the analyst also applies a higher risk-free rate to future cash flows.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Current Price is $34.44. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $39.08, suggesting upside of 13.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 149.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.1, implying annual growth of 32.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 156.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.3, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 108.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ECF    ELANOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY FUND

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.02

Moelis rates ((ECF)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results were slightly ahead of expectations. Moelis notes FY23 guidance for free funds of 11c per unit and the distribution of 9.4c, implying a full year distribution yield of 9.5%.

Moreover, this is one of the few A-REITs not materially affected by rising interest rates in FY23, points out the broker.

Elanor Commercial Property Fund is considered a "highly compelling" income play. The stock currently trades at a -16% discount to net tangible assets with income being supported by positive rent reversion and attractive asset positioning opportunities. Buy rating and $1.21 target.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.19
If ECF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.27.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.27.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELO    ELMO SOFTWARE LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $3.00

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ELO)) as Buy (1) –

The last year has been a record trading period for Elmo Software, with the company adding $25m in incremental annual recurring revenue over the year, and Canaccord Genuity anticipates the company can reach operating cash flow in the third quarter of FY23. 

Elmo Software reiterated guidance for the coming year, targeting 24-19% annual recurring revenue growth and free cash flow between -$2m and $2m.

The broker also notes the company is expected to pay down a large portion of its CommBank debt facility in the coming year, supported by its $48m cash position at the end of FY22.

The Buy rating and target price of $7.50 are retained.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $4.5
If ELO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.74.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 75.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ELO)) as Overweight (2) –

Following FY22 results, Jarden believes the valuation for Elmo Software remains attractive on a relative basis and retains its Overweight rating and $5.19 target price.

The results revealed a larger loss (NLAT) than expected of -$37.2m, compared to the broker’s -27.7m forecast and the consensus estimate for -$29.3m, driven partly by a lower R&D capitalisation rate.

The analyst feels the company has pricing power and/or benefits from the low price sensitivity of its customers, particularly in the small and medium-sized business (SMB) segment. This view comes as minimal churn occurred following recent price increases.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $5.19 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $2.19
If ELO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.96.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.88.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((ELO)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results were largely pre-announced and there were few surprises for Shaw and Partners. FY23 guidance was reiterated, including operating cash flow within a -$2m to $2m range.

The broker remains impressed with Elmo Software's topline growth and operating leverage and reiterates a Buy rating.

There was dilution from the outperformance of acquisitions and Shaw and Partners explains that, while this is desirable, as settlement is in scrip in FY23 it is incrementally dilutive in the short term. Target is reduced to $6.80 from $7.60.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $3.8
If ELO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 34.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.80.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 19.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.31.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ELO)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons recently upgraded Elmo Software to Market Weight. With the conclusion of the investment period at the end of FY22 and expectations for accelerated profitability in FY23, the broker considers the risks are balanced compared with history now that cash burn worries have been resolved.

The UK performance stood out in FY22, contributing 23% of revenue. Additional growth opportunities are expected with the Webexpense customer base being cross sold to the broader suite.

Elmo Software expects EBITDA in FY23 to be materially higher, at $20-25m. Wilsons maintains the Market Weight rating and lowers the target to $2.81 from $2.85.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $2.81 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If ELO meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 42.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.11.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 72.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.14.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML    EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.94

Wilsons rates ((EML)) as Market Weight (3) –

EML Payments has notified the market that the recent acquisition, Sentenial, has identified fraudulent activity related to a set of fraudulent merchants in its direct debit processing business.

The fraud, which took place in August, appears to be with the core Sentenial business, not Nuapay, but this needs to be confirmed.

The company is investigating the fraud and has commenced proceedings to recover any losses, not expected to exceed -EUR5.5m. Wilsons assesses, while in financial terms the losses may be modest, this is another negative in respect to the company's overall brand credibility.

Furthermore, the market is now likely to apply a larger discount in assessing the valuation. The broker's Market Weight rating is under review as are earnings forecasts. Target is $1.21.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.27
If EML meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 100.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 45.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ENN    ELANOR INVESTORS GROUP

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.91

Moelis rates ((ENN)) as Buy (1) –

Core earnings of $18.3m in FY22 were supported by strong growth in fund management recurring income and $11.2m from the profit on the sale of Cradle Mountain and Estate Tuscany.

Co-investment income was $ 7.9m in FY22, impacted by the pandemic. Moelis expects this segment will rebound strongly in FY23.

Elanor Investors is a key pick for the broker from a valuation perspective and a Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $2.39 from $2.30.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $2.39 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.48
If ENN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL    FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.50

Moelis rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis notes FY23 guidance for revenue of EUR135-140m implies 6-10% growth and a positive run rate on cash flow by June 2024. The broker increases estimates for FY23, aligning with guidance.

Software growth continues to be driven almost exclusively by existing customers undergoing cloud upgrades, amid growing usage of existing claims solutions.

The broker assumes sales conditions improve for Fineos Corp from 2023 onwards. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.54 from $2.79.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $2.54 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $1.04
If FCL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.51.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 44.58.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Shaw and Partners rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 revenue was in line with guidance while subscriber growth improved on expectations. Fineos Corp has reiterated a target to be positive on free cash flow in FY24. Shaw and Partners believes the business is set up for positive leverage and upside surprise.

The company has written down the value of Limelight Health goodwill and, while non-cash, the broker acknowledges this will be frustrating for those that supported the capital raising for the business.

Yet, strategically, the quote-to-claim capability of Limelight Health provides is critical for success in a broader policy administration play, the broker assures.

 Ultimately, this is what Shaw and Partners believes Fineos Corp will become. Buy rating reiterated with a $3.40 target.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $1.9
If FCL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.64.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 245.10.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GEM    G8 EDUCATION LIMITED

Childcare – Overnight Price: $1.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GEM)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

G8 Education's first half result came in below Canaccord Genuity's expectations, with cost pressures and staffing shortages impacting.

Although generally a positive for demand, the current tight labour market and shortage of qualified staff is impacting on the ability to accommodate demand, and the broker expects this will impact on occupancy growth moving forward and add further cost pressure.

Earnings per share forecasts decrease -9% and -6% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price decreases to $1.07 from $1.33.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.06
If GEM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.20.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.22.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HOME CONSORTIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $5.03

Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Overweight (2) –

FY22 results for Home Consortium revealed pre-tax funds from operations (FFO) of 31cpu, a beat of 8.7% and 6.6%, respectively, compared to forecasts by Jarden and consensus.

No specific guidance was provided for FY23 FFO other than the FY22 performance was repeatable, while dividend guidance of 12cpu was in line with the broker and above the consensus forecast for 11.6cpu.

The broker's target price eases to $6.80 from $6.90 as valuations are rolled forward and the disposal of on-balance sheet investment properties are allowed for. The Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.03 Difference: $1.77
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting upside of 19.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of -10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HSN    HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $4.91

Shaw and Partners rates ((HSN)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results were largely in line with forecasts. Shaw and Partners highlights the fact that Hansen Technologies faces margin pressure in FY23. The broker estimates the cash EBITDA margin slumped to 24% in the second half of FY22 compared with 30% in the first half.

The issue, given the share price reaction was negative, is that the market expected margins to be maintained at historical peaks.

M&A remains a genuine catalyst, the broker adds, yet a transaction is more likely in the second half than the first. Hence, patience should be rewarded. Buy rating reiterated. Target is $6.20.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $1.29
If HSN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.98.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.84.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $23.91

Shaw and Partners rates ((HUB)) as Buy (1) –

Hub24's FY22 result outpaced Shaw and Partners estimates, and a strong rise in September-quarter funds under administration (FUA) to date, suggests a recovery and bodes well for growth, says the broker.

Management has lowered its Platform FUA target range to $80bn-$89bn by FY24, from $83bn-$92bn to reflect market movements.

Shaw notes this is still 10% ahead of consensus and expects a market rerating if met.

The broker notes no shortage of catalysts and raises FY23  and FY24 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts 4% and 1.5% and substantially raises dividend forecasts.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises 2.9% to $35.50 from $34.50.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $23.91 Difference: $11.59
If HUB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.76, suggesting upside of 24.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.0, implying annual growth of 212.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.50 cents and EPS of 78.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of 18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $10.54

Shaw and Partners rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

Iluka Resources gained pricing traction across its product suite in the first half, with Shaw and Partners noting the expansion of margins despite cost pressures. First half net profit in revenue was ahead of expectations although the dividend was "a bit lighter than expected".

The broker observes the company is building a healthy cash buffer ahead of some major long-term growth drivers, this being rare earths at Eneabba, Wimmera and mineral sands in Atacama.

The broker considers the stock "interesting" as a value proposition and retains a Buy rating. Target is $13.35.

This report was published on August 31, 2022.

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $10.54 Difference: $2.81
If ILU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.70 cents and EPS of 97.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.8, implying annual growth of 53.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.10 cents and EPS of 91.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.8, implying annual growth of -22.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LGL    LYNCH GROUP HOLDING LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.34

Jarden rates ((LGL)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results for Lynch Holding were in line with guidance provided in May.

No FY23 guidance was provided, though cost headwinds are likely to persist through the 1H of FY23 and ease into the 2H, assuming the population (globally) adapts to living with covid.

The broker makes minor revisions to earnings forecasts and lowers its target price to $3.70 from $3.90. 

Jarden likes the growth opportunity via partnerships with companies such as Ole and WMT in China and retains its Buy rating.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $1.36
If LGL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.32 cents and EPS of 30.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.74.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.89 cents and EPS of 41.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.64.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.90

Shaw and Partners rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Mader Group's FY22 result outpaced consensus forecasts, as did guidance.

Shaw and Partners explains the company has a track record of delivering above guidance and that its milestones, if met, suggest a doubling of the business within four years. Guidance outpaced Shaw's forecasts by 8% in FY23 and 11% in FY24.

The broker notes FY22 represented the first year of real global trade, which it expects will rise sharply from here, and observes the company enjoys market-leading return on equity and low capital requirements.

EPS forecasts rise 11% in FY23; 7% in FY24; and 7% in FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price rises 9% to $3.70 from $3.39.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.8
If MAD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.90 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.17

Moelis rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results were in line with expectations although margins were weaker than expected. Gross cash conversion was strong at 91% yet free cash flow was negative, largely stemming from expenditure related to recent contract awards.

 Capital expenditure is expected to moderate in FY23, with Macmahon guiding to expenditure of -$194m. Moelis continues to believe the valuation is undemanding and maintains a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $0.27 from $0.35.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.1
If MAH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.60 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.07.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.70 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.15.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $13.17

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Neutral (3) –

Monadelphous Group's full result has come in ahead of both Jarden's forecasts and company guidance, with the company reporting a -1.2% year-on-year revenue decline and a 20 basis point earnings margin expansion. 

Jarden expects the company can delivery a stronger cash conversion performance in the first half of the new financial year, benefiting from payments delayed from FY22. The broker remains cautious as to the outlook for Engineering and Construction, with new contract wins skewed to Maintenance and Industrial.

The broker likes the strong demand outlook and company focus on pursuing new contracts with improved earnings and margin quality. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.80 from $10.35.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: minus $2.37 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting downside of -4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 49.50 cents and EPS of 57.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.8, implying annual growth of 36.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.1, implying annual growth of 27.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORR    ORECORP LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.42

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ORR)) as Buy (1) –

A recently released definitive feasibility study from OreCorp's Nyanzaga gold project has estimated capital expenditure for the project at -US$474m for a 4m tonne per annum open pit and underground mine. 

Canaccord Genuity notes the study suggests production of 242,000 ounces per annum, up 25% on previous estimates. The updated plan includes a smaller open pit, offset by an expanded and accelerated underground mine operation.

Final investment decision is expected in the first quarter. The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.95 from $1.00.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.53
If ORR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBP    PROBIOTEC LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $2.21

Shaw and Partners rates ((PBP)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 results were at the top end of guidance and Shaw and Partners notes Probiotec has successfully navigated the impact of the pandemic throughout the year, including slower pharmacies and global supply chain issues.

The business has made a "strong" exit into FY23 and the broker notes optimism has returned as earlier guidance plays out.

Shaw and Partners envisages upside to its expectations for $35m in EBITDA in FY23 yet remains conservative regarding margins because of the lagging impacts of the pandemic. Target is raised to $3.24 from $3.04 and a Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $1.03
If PBP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.95.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.42.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PFP    PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.92

Moelis rates ((PFP)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Having delivered total and comparable funeral volume growth of 19% and 8.9% in the last year, Propel Funeral Partners has reported volumes are already materially higher than the previous comparable period in the first six weeks of FY23. 

Moelis notes revenue per funeral has also lifted 6% in the early weeks of the new financial year, and expects further improvement across financials moving forward. The broker lifted its earnings forecast for FY23 by 7%.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price increases to $5.41 from $5.16.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $5.41 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.49
If PFP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.60.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.45.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPM    PEPPER MONEY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.57

Jarden rates ((PPM)) as Overweight (2) –

First half earnings were below expectations as stronger growth in volumes was offset by margin erosion. Jarden expects margins will weaken further before stabilising as re-pricing initiatives and positive mix come to bear.

Pepper Money is proactively re-pricing above the moves in the cash rate and its borrowers appear relatively sticky. Jarden continues to believe this is a resilient business despite the industry headwinds while the valuation is considered undemanding.

Overweight maintained. Target rises to $1.70 from $1.50.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.13
If PPM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.76.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.41.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((PPM)) as Overweight (1) –

First half net result was ahead of expectations because of lower losses. Wilsons notes overall book quality is sound and provision coverage declined slightly despite a greater contribution from near-prime.

Strategically, given further signs of a slowing demand profile and a requirement to improve net interest margins, the broker expects Pepper Money will quickly increase its exposure to near-prime customers. Overweight maintained. Target is raised to $2.50 from $1.90.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.57 Difference: $0.93
If PPM meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 35.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.45.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 34.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM    PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.79

Jarden rates ((PTM)) as Underweight (4) –

Platinum Asset Management reported net profit of $118.2m in FY22, which was slightly below Jarden's estimates. Base management fees deteriorated materially in the second half while the cost-to-income ratio was higher.

While flagship fund performance has improved over the past six months, the broker expects outflows will persist in FY23.

This is exacerbated by the negative impact of founder Kerr Neilson's departure from the board in November. The broker retains an Underweight rating and $1.50 target.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 7.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -6.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of -14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG    REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.11

Jarden rates ((REG)) as Buy (1) –

Underlying operating earnings beat estimates yet Jarden considered this a "poor" result, driven by the impact of the pandemic.

The large increase in probate liabilities in the second half is expected to carry heightened short-term risk for cash flow, although Regis Healthcare is supported by a large property portfolio.

The main positive were the resilient occupancy rates, which averaged 89.8% and exited FY22 at 91%. The broker points out this is set a solid foundation for FY23, relative to investor expectations.

As the sector confronts the evolving regulatory environment, Regis Healthcare is investing in technology and quality standards which should put it in a relatively stronger position vis-a-vis the industry, the broker suggests.

Buy rating maintained with a $3.10 target.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.99
If REG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.31.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.19.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG    SCENTRE GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.94

Jarden rates ((SCG)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden considers the new guidance for 2022 conservative, believing Scentre Group is at the start of an 18-24 months recovery. Amid gradual improvement in project and management income, the broker expects topline growth to exceed the impact of the rising cost of debt.

The business remains on track for a 40% increase in free funds and cash flow between FY21 and FY24, even given the slowing consumer environment. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.70 from $3.80.

This report was published on August 23, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.76
If SCG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $34.00

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Sonic Healthcare's FY22 revenue outpaced consensus by 1.6% and met Jarden's forecasts, but earnings (EBITDA) outpaced both the broker and consensus by 4.5%, leading to a beat on margins, thanks in part to strong cost control.

The broker appreciates the leverage demonstrated by the company during a period of high staffing, lower volumes, inflation, and operational inefficiencies.

EPS forecasts are trimmed -1.8% in FY23 to reflect higher depreciation and amortisation and tax, before rising 6.9% in FY24 and 5.9% in FY25 as pathology earnings increase (the company is expected to introduce covid testing).

Jarden expects Sonic's strong balance sheet positions it well for mergers and acquisitions. Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $32.02 from $29.87.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $32.02 Current Price is $34.00 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $36.15, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 177.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.0, implying annual growth of -42.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 157.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.6, implying annual growth of -11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SRG    SRG GLOBAL LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.70

Shaw and Partners rates ((SRG)) as Buy (1) –

SRG Global's pre-guided FY22 result broadly met Shaw and Partners' forecasts and the broker expects FY23 earnings will rise 25% given the company has $1.3bn of work in hand.

The broker says the company appears to be delivering on its strategy and considers SRG to be a low-risk option amongst peers given a large portion of its revenue is recurring.

Given the strong macro environment for infrastructure, mining and construction and asset services, not to mention the recent WBHO purchase, the broker remains a fan.

Buy rating retained and $1.05 target price retained.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.35
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.30 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.28.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.96

Jarden rates ((TAH)) as Overweight (2) –

Tabcorp Holdings's FY22 result proved mixed and overall appears to have disappointed Jarden.

Total wagering revenue was steady, digital market share losses were reined in at -25%, fixed-odds Racing and Sports softened.

EPS forecasts fall 0% in FY23; -2% in FY24; and -1% in FY25.

Overweight rating retained, the broker expecting a turnaround could be on the cards (but not just yet). Target price falls to $1.11 from $1.18 to reflect negative cash revisions.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.11 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.15
If TAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 12.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.40 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of -98.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.70 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.5, implying annual growth of 12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLC    LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $4.42

Jarden rates ((TLC)) as Neutral (3) –

Lottery Corp's FY22 margins missed consensus forecasts most likely due to flat June-half sales growth, Jarden conjectures.

The broker says this casts doubt on digital penetration and sales forecasts as the company cycles out of covid.

Operating expenditure and capital expenditure also proved a miss and, combined with inflation, the broker expects this will translate to further margin pressure in FY23.

Only Powerball pleasantly surprised, with no jackpots to date in 2022. EPS forecasts fall -5% in FY23; -2% in FY24; and 0% in FY25.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $4.38 from $4.49.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $4.38 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If TLC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRJ    TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $2.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TRJ)) as Buy (1) –

While Trajan Group's full year earnings of $12.5m were a beat to the company's latest guidance and to Canaccord Genuity's forecasts, the broker notes the result is at the bottom end of the initial guidance range provided in February.

The broker believes the guidance provided by the company in June was a low estimate to ensure a result beat. Further, the broker notes the company has delivered very little organic growth over the last four half yearly periods.

Despite this observation, the broker described the company's first year since listing as solid despite a challenging environment. The company delivered 40.5% year-on-year revenue growth, while the four acquisitions made during the year provided a $22.7m revenue benefit.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.94 are retained.

This report was published on August 25, 2022.

Target price is $3.94 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $1.84
If TRJ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.87.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRS    REJECT SHOP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $4.24

Jarden rates ((TRS)) as Buy (1) –

FY22 sales were in line with Jarden's estimates. Gross margin was higher despite the increase in freight costs which meant EBIT was ahead of estimates by 17%.

The broker observes conditions are improving, slowly, and the cost of doing business is continuing to surprise to the upside. This highlights Reject Shop's ability to control its cost base.

The buyback is considered accretive while price inflation should benefit the top line. New stores along with the cycling of the pandemic  suggests the performance has troughed. The stock remains a long-term Buy for Jarden with the target raised to $8.60 from $8.30.

This report was published on August 23, 2022.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $4.24 Difference: $4.36
If TRS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 8.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 50.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 48.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WAF    WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.26

Shaw and Partners rates ((WAF)) as Buy (1) –

West African Resources' June first-half result pleased Shaw and Partners, the broker noting Sanbrado is on track to meet 2022 production guidance.

Net cash rose $37m to $208m. The broker now expects first gold production from Kiaka in 2025.

Buy recommendation and $1.55 target price retained.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.29
If WAF meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.16.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XPN    XPON TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.18

Shaw and Partners rates ((XPN)) as Buy (High Risk) (1) –

XPON Technologies' pre-announced FY22 result met Shaw and Partners' expectations, the company posting 98% growth in recap revenue and 78% growth in annual recurring revenue.

Cost performance outpaced by 12%, and the broker observes the company is delivering extremely strong growth with great efficiency.

Buy High Risk rating and 35c target price retained.

This report was published on August 24, 2022.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.17
If XPN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.57.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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