article 3 months old

Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 16, 2022

Daily Market Reports | Sep 16 2022

This story features ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABP   AIM   AOF   ARF (2)   ASX   BKW   BWP   CGS   CHC   CIP   CLW   CNI (2)   COF   CQE (2)   CQR   DEG   DGL   DSK   DXS   ELD   GDC   GMG (2)   GPT (2)   HCW   HDN (2)   HMC   HPI   INA   JHX   LIC   LME   MCR   MGR   MTS (2)   NCZ   NSR (2)   NTD   PLY   PMV   PPG   QAL   RIO   SCG (2)   SCP (2)   SGP (2)   SLX   STA   UMG   VCX (2)   WPR   XRO (2)  

ABP    ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.64

Jarden rates ((ABP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

The analyst feels underperformance of Abacus Property creates a cheaper way to get exposure to storage, even if core commercial exposure is included. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight and the $3.20 target is unchanged.

National Storage, rated Overweight by Jarden, is the only pure play exposure to storage, though Abacus Property is preferred.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.64 Difference: $0.56
If ABP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of -70.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.80 cents and EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -2.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIM    AI-MEDIA TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $0.30

CCZ Equities rates ((AIM)) as Buy (1) –

Total FY22 revenue was in line with the bottom end of Ai-Media Technologies guidance range, and underlying earnings (EBITDA) were also in line with guidance for “positive EBITDA”, notes CCZ Equities.

The shift to higher gross margin products is progressing, according to the analyst, and profit margins are expected to widen. This is expected to generate free cash flow at a 151% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) out to FY27.

The broker sets a $0.81 target price and maintains a Buy rating.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.81 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.51
If AIM meets the CCZ Equities target it will return approximately 170% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.00.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AOF    AUSTRALIAN UNITY OFFICE FUND

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.44

Moelis rates ((AOF)) as Hold (3) –

Australian Unity Office Fund delivered full year funds from operations of 18.8 cents per share, ahead of the company's guidance range, while a 15.2 cents per share distribution was in line.

Moelis notes the departure of Property NSW saw occupancy decline to 84.4%, from 96.9%, in what is the first of three move-outs in the coming two years that represent 54% of net lettable area. The broker assumes 69% and 74% average occupancy in FY23 and FY24.

The company does intend to dispose of three assets, using proceeds to reposition 10 Valentine and 30 Pirie. Moelis assumes a -$110m capital expenditure spend over a five year period at these assets, as well as 150 Charlotte. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.58 from $2.34.

This report was published on September 8, 2022.

Target price is $1.58 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.14
If AOF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.71.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.80 cents and EPS of 10.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.46.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((ARF)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs lowers its target price for Arena REIT to $4.33 from $4.40.

The broker feels positive industry fundamentals provide relatively resilient and secure cash flows, which are majority government backed. 

While the largely triple net lease structures provide further comfort, a Neutral rating is kept as these positives are already factored-in to the share price, believes the analyst.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.33 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.43
If ARF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of -79.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Underweight (4) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Arena REIT, Jarden retains its Underweight rating as a significant valuation premium will likely retard share price performance, despite CPI-linked rental growth and a steady development pipleline. The target falls to $4.25 from $4.35.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.35
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of -79.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $74.02

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Underweight (4) –

While August futures volumes rose for ASX, cash equity turnover was weak as were capital raisings, driven by a lack of IPO's, explains Jarden.

The broker lowers its target to $73.30 from $74.45. The Underweight rating is retained on valuation and the potential for further CHESS replacement project delays.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $73.30 Current Price is $74.02 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting upside of 10.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 247.90 cents and EPS of 275.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.7, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 252.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 263.20 cents and EPS of 292.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 289.4, implying annual growth of 3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 262.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW    BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $20.72

Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Brickworks has accumulated an 11.94% interest in FBR ((FBR)), highlighting FBR's Hadrian X bricklaying product as a key attraction.

The technology, which can lay bricks seven times faster than labourers and at a -40% cost saving, could move to commercialisation in the coming year, according to the broker. 

Jarden sees opportunity in the technology to overcome current labour shortages, and notes FBR has flagged potential for Hadrian X to be applied to roof tiles, concrete pumps and other applications within construction over time.

The Neutral rating and target price of $23.20 are retained.

This report was published on September 1, 2022.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $20.72 Difference: $2.48
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.18, suggesting upside of 21.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 65.30 cents and EPS of 450.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 367.4, implying annual growth of 131.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 68.50 cents and EPS of 170.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.8, implying annual growth of -56.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP    BWP TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.90

Jarden rates ((BWP)) as Underweight (4) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For BWP Trust, Jarden retains its Underweight rating on a lack of pricing power and structural growth revealed by five years of no real funds from operations (FFO) growth.

The target price rises to $3.45 from $3.40.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting downside of -1.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of -76.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.45

CCZ Equities rates ((CGS)) as No Rating (-1) –

Further leverage and productivity gains from Cogstate's cost base drove an 84% profit (PBT) increase versus the previous corresponding period, observes CCZ Equities. The FY22 results were largely pre-announced.

While the broker anticipates clinical trial margins will soften in FY23 (as software revenues normalise), further leverage is expected from the semi-fixed operating cost base.

Guidance for an earnings (EBITDA) margin range of between 27% and 29% and 75% cash conversion is in line with the analyst's forecasts.

CCZ Equities sets no rating or target price.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Current Price is $1.45. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.32.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.66.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC    CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $12.46

Jarden rates ((CHC)) as Buy (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

Jarden sees attractive medium-term value for fund manager Charter Hall though expects share price volatility in the near term. The Buy rating is maintained, while the target slips to $17.35 from $17.50.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $12.46 Difference: $4.89
If CHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.00, suggesting upside of 21.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.6, implying annual growth of -51.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.97

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Centuria Industrial REIT, Jarden lowers its rating to Neutral from Overweight and reduces its target to $3.35 from $3.65. A long weighted average lease expiry (WALE) is expected to delay benefits from the strong mark-to-markets being realised on rents.

The broker feels the market wants to see evidence of valuation declines before sentiment improves, despite positive thematic tailwinds and rental growth.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.38
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -72.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.38

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight (4) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Charter Hall Long WALE REIT, Jarden downgrades its rating to Underweight from Overweight on the significant headwind caused by rising interest rates. No meaningful funds from operations (FFO) growth is expected over the next few years.

The target is reduced to $4.60 from $4.80.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.22
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((CNI)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs lowers its target price for Centuria Capital to $2.13 from $2.18.

The broker slightly lowers FY24 and FY25 EPS estimates on lower funds management income. The Neutral rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.13 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.27
If CNI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 22.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Buy (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

Jarden sees attractive medium-term value for fund manager Centuria Capital though expects share price volatility in the near term. The Buy rating is maintained, while the target slips to $2.70 from $2.75.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.84
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.30, suggesting upside of 22.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.62

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Centuria Office REIT, Jarden raises its rating to Neutral from Underweight, despite limited positive catalysts, as the share price has dramatically underperformed peers on a three and twelve month basis.

The outlook for office, including suburban office markets remains tough, in the analyst's view, and the target price is lowered to $1.80 from $1.95.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.18
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 23.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of -24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.4, implying annual growth of 2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((CQE)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs maintains its $4.35 target price for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT.

Key risks to the broker's investment thesis include lower market rent growth and worse-than-expected leasing outcomes. The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $1.01
If CQE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.66.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.86.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT, Jarden lowers its rating to Neutral from Overweight on limited growth for funds from operations (FFO) and a lack of upside relative to other stocks in the sector.

The target price rises to $3.95 from $3.90.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: $0.61
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.92

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For REITs with exposure to daily needs retail, Jarden expects ongoing steady top-line growth from anchors and specialities, as well as medium-term acquisition opportunities.

While Shopping Centres Australasia Property is preferred in the space, the broker likes Charter Hall Retail REIT and maintains its Overweight rating and $4.55 target.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.63
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.19, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of -75.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.30 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DEG    DE GREY MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.10

Bell Potter rates ((DEG)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter notes the release of a pre-feasibility study from De Grey Mining on its Mallina Gold Project is a major de-risking milestone, and has delivered measurable improvements over the project's scoping study.

Notably, average annual production lifted 26% to 540,000 ounces, with peak production of 637,000 ounces annually. All-in sustaining costs were largely unchanged, but did benefit from higher grades in the first ten years, while capital expenditure lifted 18%.

The company targets a final investment decision in mid-2023, and a two year construction period for first production in the second half of 2025. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.97 from $1.80.

This report was published on September 9, 2022.

Target price is $1.97 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.87
If DEG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DGL    DGL GROUP LIMITED

Commercial Services & Supplies – Overnight Price: $1.75

Bell Potter rates ((DGL)) as Buy (1) –

DGL Group has delivered 88.2% year-on-year revenue growth to $369.8m and 59% earnings growth to $65.6m, ahead of and in line with Bell Potter's forecasts respectively. 

The broker notes manufacturing delivered more than 300% earnings growth, underpinned by second half margin acceleration and acquisitions.

On the back of strong growth in FY22, Bell Potter expects earnings to decline -$15m in FY23, assuming only $50.6m of earnings were sustainable.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.15 from $3.50. 

This report was published on September 1, 2022.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.4
If DGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.09.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $2.00

Shaw and Partners rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1) –

Having largely pre-released its full year, Shaw and Partners notes Dusk Group's results were largely in line. The broker highlights a robust first eight weeks of the new year, with a 33% sales increase year-on-year. 

Shaw and Partners notes it remains conservative on Dusk Group's outlook over the next year, given the company will be cycling strong growth rates. It finds Dusk Group well positioned for long-term growth, market share gains and increased scale.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.00 are retained.

This report was published on September 5, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $1
If DSK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $8.41

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Underweight (4) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Dexus, Jarden lowers its target to $9.60 from $10.00 and retains an Underweight rating, given momentum in office markets will likely deteriorate before getting better.

An Underweight rating is maintained and the target price is lowered to $9.60 from $10.00. The analyst points out no value is being recognised in the current share price for the Funds Management and Development platforms.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.19
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.35, suggesting upside of 25.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.5, implying annual growth of -56.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $12.77

Shaw and Partners rates ((ELD)) as Buy (1) –

The Bureau of Agriculture released its September crop report, and Shaw and Partners notes the outlook bodes well for Elders.

The Bureau issued a 9% upgrade to its domestic winter crop forecast, now estimating a well above average 55.5m tonne crop. The report also indicated strong back-to-back summer crops of 5.59m tonnes in 2021-22 and 5.23m tonnes in 2022-23. 

Shaw and Partners notes Elders latest guidance is for underlying earnings growth between 30.0-40.0% in the current year, and the broker has lifted its forecast to 37.1-40.0% given the crop report. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $19.20 from $20.00.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $12.77 Difference: $6.43
If ELD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.20, suggesting upside of 21.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.5, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 106.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.3, implying annual growth of -5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDC    GLOBAL DATA CENTRE GROUP

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.40

Moelis rates ((GDC)) as Buy (1) –

Global Data Centre's ETIX is set to acquire two data centres in Lille, France, at a cost of -EUR56m. Moelis notes the purchase offers 1.8 megawatts in usable capacity, and a maximum capacity of 2.7 megawatts.

The broker notes this will see ETIX's maximum capacity expand to 11.6 megawatts, and has lifted its earnings forecast for the coming year to $5.8m to include a $2.5m contribution from this acquisition.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.15 from $2.10.

This report was published on September 9, 2022.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.75
If GDC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 107.69.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.68.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG    GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $18.29

Goldman Sachs rates ((GMG)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs retains its $25.40 target price for Goodman Group.

A key risk to the broker's investment thesis is a fall in real estate values. A large share of operating income derives from funds management fees, which are largely tied to the market value of assets under management, explains the analyst.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: $7.11
If GMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 94.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of -49.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 104.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((GMG)) as Neutral (3) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Goodman Group, Jarden raises its target to $22.40 from $21.45 and maintains a Neutral rating. It's thought fundamentals for global logistics remain very strong, though the current valuation premium may be at risk should cap rates start to rise significantly.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $22.40 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: $4.11
If GMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 26.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of -49.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.3, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.08

Goldman Sachs rates ((GPT)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs lowers its target price for GPT Group to $5.28 from $5.37.

The broker slightly lowers FY23 and FY24 EPS estimates to allow for more moderate net property income (NPI) in outer year forecasts than previously expected and slightly higher interest costs.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $5.28 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $1.2
If GPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 17.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 32.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of -56.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 32.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Underweight (4) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For GPT Group, Jarden retains its Underweight rating and lowers its target to $4.40 from $4.65 as 2H FY22 and FY23 earnings are set to come under significant pressure from a doubling in cost of debt. This outcome is expected to normalise from FY24 onwards.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.32
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 17.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of -56.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HCW    HEALTHCO HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((HCW)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs raises its target price for HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT to $2.14 from $2.08.

The broker raises its average EPS estimates by around 1% across FY23-25, largely reflecting slightly higher net property income (NPI) forecasts upon greater future development pipeline clarity. Higher forecast interest expenses provide an offset.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.14 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.49
If HCW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 17.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -54.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.26

Goldman Sachs rates ((HDN)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs retains its $1.63 target price for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT.

The broker's Buy rating is also unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.37
If HDN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Overweight (2) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For REITs with exposure to daily needs retail, Jarden expects ongoing steady top-line growth from anchors and specialities, as well as medium-term acquisition opportunities.

While Shopping Centres Australasia Property is preferred in the space, the broker also likes HomeCo Daily Needs REIT and maintains its Overweight rating. The target eases to $1.45 from $1.50.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.19
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 17.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of -68.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HOME CONSORTIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $4.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((HMC)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs retains its $6.27 target price for Home Consortium.

The Buy rating is also unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $6.27 Current Price is $4.94 Difference: $1.33
If HMC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.02, suggesting upside of 19.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of -10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 27.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HPI    HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $3.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((HPI)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs raises its target price for Hotel Property Investments to $3.45 from $3.43.

The broker's earnings changes were largely driven by a higher interest expense than previously expected. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.3
If HPI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.41.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.17

Jarden rates ((INA)) as Buy (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

Jarden likes the land lease/manufactured home estate (MHE) exposures for the benefit of rents being fully-linked to CPI, with rents growing as developments settle. Ingenia Communities is also seen as a strong way to play the reopening of domestic tourism.

The Buy rating is maintained, while the target slips to $5.60 from $5.70.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.43
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $33.51

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Overweight (2) –

James Hardie Industries' exclusive supply partner DR Horton is taking a cautious outlook on the US housing market, as reported by Jarden, although does not think the industry will sink to 2007-2009 levels. 

The broker notes while the housing market has appeared soft in recent months, consumers entered the economic downturn better positioned than in previous cycles.

Jarden finds James Hardie Industries to have strong product pricing power and a better business mix than in the last demand downturn.

The Overweight rating and target price of $42.40 are retained.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $33.51 Difference: $8.89
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.57, suggesting upside of 49.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 142.50 cents and EPS of 233.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 124.34 cents and EPS of 207.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 255.0, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $16.48

Jarden rates ((LIC)) as Buy (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

Jarden likes the land lease/manufactured home estate (MHE) exposures for the benefit of rents being fully-linked to CPI, with rents growing as developments settle.  

Lifestyle Communities' strong forward book of development projects and conservative forward site settlement profile is attractive to the analyst in the current macroeconomic backdrop. 

The Buy rating and $20.60 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $16.48 Difference: $4.12
If LIC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 60.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.42.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.65.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LME    LIMEADE INC

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.20

Shaw and Partners rates ((LME)) as Buy (1) –

Having released its first half results, Shaw and Partners notes Limeade reiterated its full year revenue and earnings guidance.

The broker estimates contracted annual recurring revenue grew 1% year-on-year in the half, the first increase since FY19, and the company suggests further growth ahead. 

The broker notes this commentary implies meaningful conversion of the $18m pipeline in the fourth quarter, which is twice the size of Limeade's pipeline at the end of the first half last year.

The Buy rating and target price of $0.65 are retained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.45
If LME meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 225% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.18.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.95.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MCR    MINCOR RESOURCES NL

Nickel – Overnight Price: $1.95

Shaw and Partners rates ((MCR)) as Buy (1) –

Mincor Resources has delivered a maiden gross profit of $15m, but Shaw and Partners notes the post-tax statutory loss of -$14.7m was bigger than expected as the company expenses exploration spend. 

Positively, Mincor Resources delivered first ore to Kambalda, receiving $25.3m net cash flow in the June quarter as a result. The broker notes achieving nameplate capacity and exploration upside will be key drivers in the coming year. 

The Buy rating and target price of $2.38 are retained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.43
If MCR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.08

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Underweight (4) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Mirvac Group, Jarden retains its Underweight rating as the majority of earnings are exposed to weak Office markets and sentiment is softening towards Residential.

The target slips to $2.25 from $2.30.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.17
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 19.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of -34.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $4.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Neutral (3) –

Metcash reported 8.9% sales growth year-to-date, compared to Goldman Sachs' forecast for 7.4% growth in the first half.

The broker notes food volumes were weaker than anticipated, with the segment reporting sales growth of 4.3% compared to 8.0% in the previous half.

Goldman Sachs noted lower volumes were aided by stronger inflation. Metcash reported inflation of 4.9% year-to-date, comparing favorably to fourth quarter inflation of 3.6% and 4.3% reported by competitors Woolworths Group and Coles Group.

The Neutral rating and target price of $4.50 are retained.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.5
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((MTS)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Metcash's strong start to the year reflects its resilience, with sales growth of 8.9% in the first seventeen weeks of the year. Hardware increased 19.5%, liquor 11.5%, and food a softer 4.3% year-on-year, but a good result compared to peers as noted by the broker.

While Jarden believes the market continues to value Metcash as a structurally challenged business, the broker believes the shape and positioning of the business has materially changed, and should support a re-rate.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $4.50 from $4.60.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.00 Difference: $0.5
If MTS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 18.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 33.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCZ    NEW CENTURY RESOURCES LIMITED

Zinc & Lead – Overnight Price: $1.55

Shaw and Partners rates ((NCZ)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners finds New Century Resources well positioned moving into the new financial year, noting a number of key catalysts on the horizon, including a final investment decision on its Century mine and delivery of a pre-feasability study for its Mount Lyell mine.

The broker likes the energy transition metals exposure offering by the Century project, as well as its strategic nature. 

The Buy rating and target price of $3.60 are retained.

This report was published on September 5, 2022.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $2.05
If NCZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.56.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR    NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((NSR)) as Sell (5) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage post the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs retains its $2.23 target price for National Storage REIT.

The Sell rating is unchanged though a material improvement in the macroeconomic backdrop in A&NZ could potentially drive demand for storage space, cautions the broker.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.23 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((NSR)) as Overweight (2) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For REITS with storage exposure, Jarden feels a slowdown in revenue per available metre (RevPAM) growth will be more than offset by the full-year impact of FY22 growth and recent transactions, as well as a growing development pipeline.

While Abacus Property is the broker's preferred way to gain exposure to the storage thematic, the broker remains Overweight National Storage REIT and raises its target to $2.90 from $2.70.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.52
If NSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.39, suggesting upside of 0.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of -4.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NTD    NATIONAL TYRE & WHEEL LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.80

CCZ Equities rates ((NTD)) as No Rating (-1) –

Following largely pre-released FY22 results, CCZ Equities feels the 2H profit (NPATA) marks a low-point. However, many investors may remain wary given both the 2H result and perceived recovery risks in the short term.

While management expects improved volumes in FY23, the broker assumes soft organic growth based on the sales run-rate coming out of FY22. 

More positively, the analyst believes a gross margin recovery is underway. CCZ Equities sets no rating or target price.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Current Price is $0.80. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.78.

Forecast for FY24:

CCZ Equities forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.40.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLY    PLAYSIDE STUDIOS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.64

Shaw and Partners rates ((PLY)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Playside Studios, noting the company's unique position as Australia's largest independent video game development studio. 

The broker highlights Playside Studios has built a $15.7m contracted work-for-hire book, and highlights potential for material expansion on successful execution of this pipeline.

The company also has a record pipeline of titles slated for launch through the coming year, which Shaw and Partners expects to drive growth beyond FY23.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $0.90.

This report was published on September 6, 2022.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.26
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 128.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 640.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $21.82

Shaw and Partners rates ((PMV)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Premier Investments, noting the company owns market leading consumer and retail brands. In  comparison to covered retail peers, Shaw and Partners finds Premier Investments offers the highest gross margin and earnings margins.

The broker observes Premier Investments proved resilient through covid impacts, driven by world-class management, and the broker notes historical evidence of fashion spending remaining robust through economic downturns is a positive. 

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $27.10.

This report was published on September 5, 2022.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $21.82 Difference: $5.28
If PMV meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.68, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 84.50 cents and EPS of 158.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.1, implying annual growth of -10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 152.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.8, implying annual growth of -12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPG    PRO-PAC PACKAGING LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $0.31

Moelis rates ((PPG)) as No Rating (-1) –

Key operating metrics for Pro-Pac Packaging were in line with forecasts by Moelis.

Management noted difficult trading conditions had persisted into FY23 and expects cost increases, including energy costs, will continue, though resin costs may stabilise at elevated levels.

The company will raise $30.2m via an underwritten 1.24 for 1 accelerated renounceable entitlement offer. Funds will be used to repay existing debt facilities and the balance applied to support working capital requirements and financial flexibilty.

Conditional covenant waivers are in place for the remainder of FY23. Moelis is currently under research restriction for Pro-Pac Packaging.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Current Price is $0.31. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.27

Goldman Sachs rates ((QAL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs finds Qualitas a lower risk way for investors to gain exposure to attractive returns in the commercial real estate credit market, as the company gains share while traditional ADI lenders move to reduce exposure. 

The broker anticipates Qualitas will double its funds under management in the next five years, driving a more than doubling of earnings per share. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.30 from $3.20.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $1.03
If QAL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.38.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.92.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $94.64

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Rio Tinto has come to an agreement with Turquoise Hill to acquire its remaining 49% stake at a price of $43.00 per share. Goldman Sachs notes this represents a 19% premium to Turquoise Hill's last closing share price as of September 1.

While subject to shareholder approval, Goldman Sachs notes the transaction would give Rio Tinto a 66% interest in the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine. The broker anticipates this could double Rio Tinto's copper earnings to over 25%. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $121.50 from $122.90. 

This report was published on September 1, 2022.

Target price is $121.50 Current Price is $94.64 Difference: $26.86
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $105.36, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 684.55 cents and EPS of 1131.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1418.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 824.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 712.49 cents and EPS of 1100.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1252.5, implying annual growth of -11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 838.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG    SCENTRE GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((SCG)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage post the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs retains its $3.50 target price for Scentre Group.

Downside to the broker's forecasts could arise from worse-than-expected occupier demand and consumer spending. The Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.72
If SCG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((SCG)) as Buy (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For REITs with malls exposure, Jarden likes the superior growth from the covid recovery and fixed (and CPI-based rents), and optionality provided by developments. A Buy rating and $3.70 target are maintained for Scentre Group.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.92
If SCG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 19.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCP    SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP RE LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.52

Goldman Sachs rates ((SCP)) as Sell (5) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage post the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs lowers its target price for Shopping Centres Australasia Property to $2.50 from $2.57.

The broker retains its Sell rating on valuation. EPS estimates for FY23 and FY24 are lowered by -5% and -7%, respectively, on lower net property income (NPI) and higher interest expense forecasts.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((SCP)) as Buy (1) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For REITs with exposure to daily needs retail, Jarden expects ongoing steady top-line growth from anchors and specialities, as well as medium-term acquisition opportunities.

Shopping Centres Australasia Property is preferred by the broker in the space and the Buy rating is maintained. The target eases to $3.15 from $3.20.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.52 Difference: $0.63
If SCP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.84, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP    STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $3.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGP)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs retains its $3.50 target price for Stockland.

A more severe housing market downturn than the broker has allowed for presents a risk. The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.03
If SGP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 33.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of -43.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((SGP)) as Neutral (3) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For Stockland, Jarden retains its Neutral rating and sees better prospects elsewhere in its REIT sector coverage. Recent results revealed a slowdown in sales and enquiries for residential and the analyst sees more negative momentum ahead.

The target falls to $3.90 from $4.00.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.43
If SGP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of -43.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of -6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLX    SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $3.38

Shaw and Partners rates ((SLX)) as Buy (1) –

In a key milestone for the commercialisation of the Silex uranium technology, Silex Systems has announced testing of its full scale laser system module is complete. 

Shaw and Partners notes the uranium enrichment system will now undergo testing in the US, with completion of the commercial pilot demonstration targeted in the mid-2020s. The company is targeting production by the late 2020s. 

Shaw and Partners notes this is an important step in Silex Systems' partially owned Global Laser Enrichment becoming the only third-generation laser uranium enrichment company globally.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $5.00 from $3.40.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $1.62
If SLX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 482.86.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3380.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STA    STRANDLINE RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $0.55

Shaw and Partners rates ((STA)) as Buy (1) –

Strandline Resources has announced the first open pit at its Coburn project is ready for mining, and the site is weeks away from first production of heavy metal concentrate.

Shaw and Partners highlights the project has been delivered on-budget and ahead of schedule despite a difficult environment.

Shaw and Partners points out Coburn is set to produce around 230,000 tonnes of heavy metal concentrate annually over 22.5 years, with potential for a further 18 year expansion.

The broker describes Coburn as a world class mineral sands development in a tight market. The Buy rating and target price of $0.80 are retained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.25
If STA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.86.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UMG    UNITED MALT GROUP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.47

Wilsons rates ((UMG)) as Market Weight (3) –

Management of United Malt is confident no additional capital will need to be raised after receiving covenant amendments for 30-September-2022 and 31-March-2023 and additional inventory funding capacity with its banks.

Negotiations with banks was needed to manage a temporary increase in barley inventories and the short-term reduction in earnings (EBITDA), explains Wilsons.

The broker sees an improved outlook for barley supply, which is expected to significantly lower production costs in FY23. The Market-weight rating and $3.01 target are maintained.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $3.01 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If UMG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.02, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 41.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 170.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX    VICINITY CENTRES

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((VCX)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs downgrades its rating for Vicinity Centres to Neutral from Buy, after significant share price outperformance so far this year, relative to the REIT index.

While Vicinity offers a potential 12-month return of around 15% when compared to the broker’s $2.09 target, down from $2.10, the average upside across Goldman's REIT coverage is circa 19%.

The analyst lowers FY23 and FY24 EPS estimates by -1.3% and -1.8% to allow for a slightly lower assumed net property income (NPI) along with a higher interest expense. 

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.24
If VCX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -49.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((VCX)) as Overweight (2) –

In a review of the Australian REIT sector following the August reporting season, Jarden sees valuations becoming more attractive following significant year-to-date underperformance versus the broader Australian market.

The broker notes yields are well above those for direct property, and the spread over real bond yields is 80-90bps wider than the long-term average. REITs that have been able to reset interest expenses early and those with stronger top-line momentum are preferred.

For REITs with malls exposure, Jarden likes the superior growth from the covid recovery and fixed (and CPI-based rents), and optionality provided by developments. An Overweight rating is maintained for Vicinity Centres and the target rises to $2.20 from $2.15.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $0.34
If VCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 13.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of -49.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPR    WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((WPR)) as Buy (1) –

Following a general review of REITs under coverage following the August reporting season, Goldman Sachs raises its target price for Waypoint REIT to $3.10 from $3.06.

The REIT is trading at an around -17% discount to net tangible assets (NTA) and offers an attractive dividend yield, observes the analyst. The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on September 2, 2022.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.59
If WPR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting upside of 5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -71.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $85.08

Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

Having attended Xerocon Sydney and recent conferences in London and New Orleans, Goldman Sachs suggests these events act as an important driver of partner engagement, and have provided a NZ$9m incremental revenue contribution to FY23.

The broker reports commentary from Xerocon was largely supportive, highlighting the company's 15% app-store fee remains well below the distribution costs and commissions in other industries.

Global restructure is a "necessary and logical evolution" for the company, according to Goldman Sachs, as it builds global scale. The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $111.00 from $113.00.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $111.00 Current Price is $85.08 Difference: $25.92
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $97.01, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 399.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 284.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 34.29 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 248.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of 123.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

A key takeaway from Xerocon for Jarden was the company's connected platform, still in its early days but tracking in line with the broker's expectations, which it feels could be worth an additional $7.00 per share not yet built into valuation.

Monetisation of Planday could also be worth an additional $30.00 per share if successfully rolled out across Australia New Zealand, the UK and US, according to the broker. 

Jarden estimates global cloud accounting adoption remains below 20%, but above 90% in Australia New Zealand. The Buy rating and target price of $107.90 are retained.

This report was published on September 7, 2022.

Target price is $107.90 Current Price is $85.08 Difference: $22.82
If XRO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $97.01, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 259.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 284.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 62.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 136.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.6, implying annual growth of 123.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 127.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms

CHARTS

ABP AIM AOF ARF ASX BKW BWP CGS CHC CIP CLW CNI COF CQE CQR DEG DGL DSK DXS ELD FBR GDC GMG GPT HCW HDN HMC HPI INA JHX LIC LME MCR MGR MTS NCZ NSR NTD PLY PMV PPG QAL RIO SCG SCP SGP SLX STA UMG VCX WPR XRO

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP - ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIM - AI-MEDIA TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AOF - AUSTRALIAN UNITY OFFICE FUND

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARF - ARENA REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASX - ASX LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BKW - BRICKWORKS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BWP - BWP TRUST

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGS - COGSTATE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHC - CHARTER HALL GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIP - CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CLW - CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CNI - CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: COF - CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQE - CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQR - CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DEG - DE GREY MINING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DGL - DGL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DSK - DUSK GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DXS - DEXUS

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ELD - ELDERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FBR - FBR LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GDC - GLOBAL DATA CENTRE GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GPT - GPT GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HCW - HEALTHCO HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HDN - HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HMC - HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HPI - HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INA - INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIC - LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LME - LIMEADE INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MCR - MINCOR RESOURCES NL

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGR - MIRVAC GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MTS - METCASH LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NCZ - NEW CENTURY RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NSR - NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NTD - NTAW HOLDINGS LIMITED.

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLY - PLAYSIDE STUDIOS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PMV - PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPG - PRO-PAC PACKAGING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QAL - QUALITAS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SCG - SCENTRE GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SCP - SCALARE PARTNERS HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGP - STOCKLAND

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STA - STRANDLINE RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: UMG - UNITED MALT GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VCX - VICINITY CENTRES

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WPR - WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: XRO - XERO LIMITED