Daily Market Reports | Feb 17 2023
This story features AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ACL
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
ACL AMC ANZ (2) AQZ ARF (2) BEN BLD BRG BWP (2) CLW CNI DDH DDR DEG DXI EDV GTK HLS HPG IDX IKE IPH LOV MCR MGH MGR MSB PPH PSI RGN SHL SSM SUN (2) TAH TCL
ACL AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED
Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $2.96
Goldman Sachs rates ((ACL)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –
The Pathology industry has high fixed cost leverage, and a slow recovery in base business post-covid presents a headwind for margins, explains Goldman Sachs.
The broker lowers its target for Australian Clinical Labs to $3.40 from $4.70 and downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy.
While there is some indication of market share gains for the company, the analyst feels it will be insufficient to offset the
headwinds for market volumes.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.44
If ACL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.58.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AMC AMCOR PLC
Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $16.76
Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Underweight (4) –
Amcor reported slowing volumes in its Flexibles and Rigids business for the 2Q23, but an improved pricing mix helped pass on some of the inflationary costs, assesses Jarden.
The analyst is skeptical that this can be maintained over the 2H23.
Jarden adjusts earnings forecasts by -1% for FY23 and -4.6% for FY24 wih management pointing to the lower end of guidance for FY23.
Underweight rating unchanged and the target is lowered to $16.50 from $16.55.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.76 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting upside of 1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 69.75 cents and EPS of 110.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 73.21 cents and EPS of 112.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.88.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 117.3, implying annual growth of 4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ANZ ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Banks – Overnight Price: $24.92
Goldman Sachs rates ((ANZ)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs found the quarterly update slightly ahead of what was implied by the forecasts at the first half result amid better volumes and asset quality. The broker increases estimates for earnings per share in FY23 and FY24 by 4.5% and 2.5%, respectively.
The broker retains a Neutral rating on ANZ Bank as it has delivered a strong cost performance over a number of years and there is no longer a differentiator in terms of its productivity agenda. Target is raised to $27.23 from $26.63.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $27.23 Current Price is $24.92 Difference: $2.31
If ANZ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.09, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 248.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.8, implying annual growth of -4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 232.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.74.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.2, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –
ANZ Bank's first quarter release has increased Jarden's positivity on the bank in the short term, with the broker seeing upside risk to margins and earnings stemming from higher rates.
Jarden highlights lower than anticipated bad and doubtful debts in the quarter drove an $83m benefit for ANZ Bank, although the broker questioned why the bank would not take the opportunity to increase CPs further.
Given the updated cash rate outlook, the broker lifted its anticipated net interest margin in FY23 to 1.86%. The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target price increases to $26.30 from $25.00.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $24.92 Difference: $1.38
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.09, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 242.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.28.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.8, implying annual growth of -4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 244.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.20.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.2, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.51
Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Market Weight (3) –
Alliance Aviation Services' December-half profit before tax missed Wilsons' forecast by -51% due to continuing delays with the E190 deployment, lower flight hours and weaker margins.
Management cut FY23 guidance -17% and reduced outer-year guidance by -8% to -11%.
Wilsons retains the faith, appreciating the sharp earnings potential from the E190 deployment and utilisation but casts a cautious eye to the balance sheet as net debt rises.
The broker's forecasts now sit -9% below FY24 guidance and EPS forecasts fall accordingly. No dividend is expected for 2023.
Market Weight rating retained. Target price falls to $3.85 from $4.04.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.51 Difference: $0.34
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.60, suggesting upside of 31.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.67.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 22.20 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.51.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 36.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARF ARENA REIT
REITs – Overnight Price: $3.88
Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (2) –
Jarden finds Arena REIT's stock more attractively valued following a -23% share price decline over the last six months, despite noting the stock continues to trade at a small premium to its net tangible assets.
Jarden feels Arena REIT, unlike some peers, is taking a realistic view on asset values. The company acknowledged cap rate expansion is likely over the next year. The broker estimates a 40 basis point cap rate expansion in the coming twelve months, on top of the 14 basis point expansion reported in the first half.
The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight and the target price increases to $4.30 from $4.25.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.42
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of -80.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) –
In the 1H, like-for-like rents grew by 6.45% year-on-year (a 6.9% increase for the childcare assets), with the rent roll benefiting from an around 90% exposure to CPI, explains Moelis.
While the analyst feels the outlook for Arena REIT has improved since the start of the year, management maintained FY23 guidance for dividends of 16.8cpu.
Higher rent growth assumptions in the broker's forecasts outweigh rising interest rate impacts, though the target falls to $3.71 from $3.83 on higher forecast cap rates across the industry. Hold.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $3.71 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of -80.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BEN BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED
Banks – Overnight Price: $9.57
Goldman Sachs rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –
Ahead of the first half result on February 20, Goldman Sachs adjusts estimates up slightly for FY23 and FY24, to reflect marking to market, and better fees as a result of commercial volumes.
This is partially offset by higher non-housing volumes which have produced higher bad debts for the short term along with lower net interest margins in the outer year.
As a result the target is reduced to $10.91 from $11.01. Neutral maintained.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $10.91 Current Price is $9.57 Difference: $1.34
If BEN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.23, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.52.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.9, implying annual growth of -1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 91.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.41.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.8, implying annual growth of -4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BLD BORAL LIMITED
Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.85
Jarden rates ((BLD)) as Overweight (2) –
Higher prices and lower costs contributed to the better than expected 1H23 results for Boral according to Jarden.
The broker raises concrete and cement forecasts by 3% and 4% for FY23 and FY24, and removes the dividend forecasts over the same periods with management expected to update the market at the FY23 results.
Jarden increases EPS forecasts by 51% for FY23 and cuts by -11% for FY24. Overweight rating unchanged and the target raised to $4.10 from $3.60.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.25
If BLD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.73, suggesting downside of -3.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.91.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.8.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.67.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of 47.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BRG BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $21.22
Shaw and Partners rates ((BRG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Breville Group with a Buy rating and $25.10 target.
The company designs and develops small electrical kitchen appliances and has a distribution arm which sells third party items under brands owned by Breville.
The broker believes consensus forecasts for the group are relatively conservative and sees potential for materially higher earnings prior to FY25. Recent favourable commentary by peers including De'longhi also supports this view, suggests the analyst.
Analysis by Shaw and Partners indicates potential for around 5.4x current revenues over time (up to $6.3bn) for the company, including upside of $2.0bn in each of Europe and the Americas. The group operates in over 80 countries.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $21.22 Difference: $3.88
If BRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.42, suggesting upside of 8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 83.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.54.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.40 cents and EPS of 94.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.48.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.2, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BWP BWP TRUST
REITs – Overnight Price: $3.97
Jarden rates ((BWP)) as Underweight (4) –
Jarden remains cautious about the ongoing potential macro headwinds for BWP Trust while acknowledging that some investors will find the low debt levels and defensive earnings attractive.
The analyst is concerned a mark-to-market of assets could result in a NTA downgrade.
Underweight rating unchanged and target is lowered to $3.35 from $3.45.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of -76.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.81.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Moelis rates ((BWP)) as Sell (5) –
According to Moelis, BWP Trust met expectations for 1H23 results and the group re-affirmed guidance for the full capital profits to be used to sustain the dividend payment.
There are minor changes to the EPF forecasts, notes the broker, of 0.3% for FY23 and -1.8% for FY24. A Sell rating is retained and the target is $3.73.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.97 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.69.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of -76.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.58.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CLW CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT
REITs – Overnight Price: $4.67
Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Underweight (4) –
Jarden believes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT will struggle to find earnings growth over the next 3 to 4 years despite strong top-line growth and ongoing asset recycling.
Given a 6.2% dividend yield on FY23 the shares do not appear expensive but with higher gearing and pressure on earnings the broker envisages better value elsewhere in the ssctor. Underweight rating and $4.60 target maintained.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.67 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.68.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 29.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.94.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.7, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CNI CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP
Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.92
Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –
Centuria Capital's 1H operating EPS was a beat of 5.7% and 1.5% versus Jarden and consensus, respectively, on a combination of performance fees, higher co-investment earnings and cost-out.
The rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy as the analysts see no near-term catalysts for fund manager REITs. Also, the share price (since reaching a nadir last October) has outperformed versus the REIT index.
The broker's target falls to $2.20 from $2.70 after updating for the result and applying a lower multiple.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.92 Difference: $0.28
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.24.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DDH DDH1 LIMITED
Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.01
Bell Potter rates ((DDH)) as Buy (1) –
Following preliminary 1H results, Bell Potter suggests DDH1 is undervalued relative to peers and maintains its Buy rating. A $1.47 target is set, up from $1.44.
Revenue growth for the half was aided by robust rig count growth and improved revenue per rig, explains the analyst. Operating earnings (EBITDA) of $65.6m were in line, while net debt fell, reflecting robust operating cash flows, which offset growth in capex.
Bell Potter expects DDH1 will benefit from recently strong copper and gold prices, its two top commodity exposures, along with an ongoing expansion of exploration budgets by clients.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.455
If DDH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.05.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.23.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DDR DICKER DATA LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $8.75
Goldman Sachs rates ((DDR)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs points to a slight FY22 earnings miss of -3%, compared to consensus forecasts in the trading update from Dicker Data.
The broker, however, is more concerned by ongoing cost pressures in FY23, particularly the higher interest rate impact on working capital for the company.
Earnings forecasts are lowered -3% and -4% for FY22 and FY23, respectively, notes Goldman Sachs. Accordingly the target is lowered -5% to $11.35 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: $2.6
If DDR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.83.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.23.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DEG DE GREY MINING LIMITED
Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.36
Canaccord Genuity rates ((DEG)) as Speculative Buy (1) –
In seeking project debt financing for the Mallina Gold project, De Grey Mining has received 14 non-binding proposals from leading financial institutions. Canaccord Genuity considers this outcome an implicit endorsement of the project.
The broker points out the $800m indicative debt funding capacity represents 76% of the capex estimate contained within the preliminary feasibility study for the project.
The Speculative Buy rating and $2.22 target are unchanged.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.84
If DEG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DXI DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT
REITs – Overnight Price: $3.16
Moelis rates ((DXI)) as Buy (1) –
Dexus Industria REIT reported 1H23 results notes Moelis with a dividend of 8.2c.
Management reconfirmed guidance and the broker highlighted the robust state of the industrial market with good rental growth evident.
FY24 earnings forecasts are adjusted by -2.4% for higher interest rates, according to Moelis and the gearing level declined to 29.5% from 34.2%, following the divestment of Rhodes Office Park.
A Buy rating and $3.31 target are unchanged.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $3.31 Current Price is $3.16 Difference: $0.15
If DXI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.37.
Forecast for FY24:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.27.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
EDV ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $6.91
Goldman Sachs rates ((EDV)) as Buy (1) –
First half results were in line with Goldman Sachs estimates. Meanwhile, the first five weeks of second-half trading showed retail comparables are up 0.2%, which the broker assesses is a sequential strengthening versus the second quarter as operations normalise.
During the first half Endeavour Group continued to extend its digital advantage across both retail and hotels. Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating with a $7.80 target.
This report was published on February 13, 2023.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.91 Difference: $0.89
If EDV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.85, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.03.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GTK GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED
Software & Services – Overnight Price: $2.65
Canaccord Genuity rates ((GTK)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on Gentrack Group with a Buy rating and $3.32 target. The company provides billing and CRM software to Energy and Water utility companies and provides ERP solutions to more than 120 airports globally.
The broker sees a solid foundation for growth from the company's highly recurring and profitable revenue profile, cash generation and balance sheet strength.
The analyst also identifies several core growth drivers including expansion into new regions, accretive acquisitions and the launch of the g2.0 platform with significant enhancements.
Risks include ongoing insolvencies for energy retailers in the UK resulting from regulatory price caps and a failure to transition retailers from incumbent technology.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.67
If GTK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 7.21 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.78.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 12.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.37.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HLS HEALIUS LIMITED
Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $3.02
Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Underweight (4) –
Jarden suggests 1H profit was likely close to breakeven for Healius, following -$9.5m (after tax) in non-underlying cost items. The company missed consensus expectations for revenue and earnings (EBITDA) by -2.9% and -7%, respectively.
The analyst notes the Pathology segment is under the most pressure, with business-as-usual (BAU) volumes moving into negative
growth in November and December. Also the decline of PCR testing accelerated and there's a PCR fee cut coming in October 2023.
While management guided to an earnings (EBIT) margin of 13-14% back in October 2022, the broker now thinks this is unlikely.
The Underweight rating is unchanged and the target eases to $2.67 from $2.82.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $2.67 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting upside of 12.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.94.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of -85.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.7.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.73.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HPG HIPAGES GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms – Overnight Price: $0.92
Goldman Sachs rates ((HPG)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs considers hipages Group going into the 1H23 results on February 23.
The analyst is looking for indications of an improvement in net subscriber growth and churn and assesses that the market is overlooking the longer term growth potential for the group in its "eco-system of services for tradies".
A Buy rating is maintained and the target adjusted to $1.80.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.885
If HPG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 915.00.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IDX INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $3.14
Canaccord Genuity rates ((IDX)) as Buy (1) –
While there is a slight negative impact on the outlook for Integral Diagnostics from the NZ High Court ruling that some radiology practices are not properly independent, Canaccord Genuity remains unconcerned.
The business is one of the higher quality listed health care service providers, in the broker's opinion, and the sector can benefit from structural tailwinds.
While there are no immediate repercussions for forecasts, the broker will review its outlook following the release of the half yearly results. A conservative view on growth is already underpinning the numbers and a Buy rating with a $3 target are maintained.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If IDX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 66.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.0, implying annual growth of 29.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IKE IKEGPS GROUP LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.86
Bell Potter rates ((IKE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –
ikeGPS Group's December-quarter result broadly met Bell Potter's forecasts.
The main disappointment was group gross margin which weakened -32% on quarter, but the broker says the company now only requires a flat March quarter to meet Bell Potter's full-year forecasts.
Gross margin assumptions are cut to 39.1% from 41.5%.
Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $1.25 target from $1.21.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.39
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.29.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 945.05.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IPH IPH LIMITED
Legal – Overnight Price: $8.72
Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity expects a strong lift in revenue and operating earnings in the first half results, due on February 16, helped by a three-month contribution from Smart & Biggar in Canada.
The broker considers IPH has the ability to grow margins over a sustained period and Canada looks set to repeat the business success enjoyed in Australia.
A Buy rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $11.25 from $11.65.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $2.53
If IPH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 21.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.76.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.3, implying annual growth of 75.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.38.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.2, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LOV LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED
Retailing – Overnight Price: $24.03
Goldman Sachs rates ((LOV)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs updates estimates ahead of the first half result on February 22. This reflects an upgrade to forecasts for new stores and latest FX assumptions.
The broker believes Lovisa Holdings will surprise with the pace of its new store roll-out, and updates forecasts to reflect a faster rate, particularly in the US. This is considered a positive indicator of execution of the company's strategy, yet Goldman Sachs is cautious about the level of risk associated with an accelerated roll-out spanning four continents.
As the valuation leaves little room for missteps the broker retains a Neutral rating and the target edges down to $29.35 from $29.45.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $29.35 Current Price is $24.03 Difference: $5.32
If LOV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.94, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.83.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.2, implying annual growth of 32.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.0.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 82.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.30.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.6, implying annual growth of 22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MCR MINCOR RESOURCES NL
Nickel – Overnight Price: $1.49
Jarden rates ((MCR)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –
Jarden initiates coverage of pure-play nickel producer Mincor Resources with an Overweight rating and $1.76 target. The bulk of the broker's valuation is taken up by the combined operations at Northern Kambalda and Cassini.
Cassini is the first major nickel sulphide discovery in the Kambalda District since the days of Western Mining Corporation.
The company is restarting nickel sulphide production in a capex-light manner (using a third party concentrator) and has thereby avoided significant execution risk for operations, explains the analyst.
Jarden sees cumulative free cash flow (FCF) of $830m over the period of its life-of-mine (LOM) estimate, which compares to the current enterprise value of around $800m.
In short, the broker likes the company's material organic and inorganic growth opportunities in a supportive backdrop for pricing, due to the decarbonisation thematic.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.27
If MCR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.88.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MGH MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.09
Goldman Sachs rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs upgrades estimates for operating earnings in FY23 and FY24 by 9.7% and 3.9%, respectively, following the latest trading update. The upgrade is driven by stronger cash earnings and higher non-cash fair value adjustments.
The broker expects Maas Group will outperform on residential MPC developments versus the broader market because of better relative affordability in regional Australia. Buy rating and $4.20 target maintained.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $1.11
If MGH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MGR MIRVAC GROUP
Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.28
Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Underweight (4) –
First half operating earnings were in line with Jarden's estimate. Nevertheless, the down cycle in residential is extending and affecting FY24 and even possibly FY25, the broker warns.
Management feedback has signalled that cancellations are at elevated levels above the historical run rate and only 430 sales were achieved in the second quarter.
While Mirvac Group is trading at a -18% discount to NTA, reflecting greater value compared with its closest peer, momentum remains negative and Jarden retains an Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $2.10 from $2.15.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of -35.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MSB MESOBLAST LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.04
Bell Potter rates ((MSB)) as Buy (1) –
Mesoblast has resubmitted its Biological Licence Application (BLA) to the FDA to gain approval of remestemcel-L for use in paediatric steroid refractory acute graft host disease.
Bell Potter observes that on the previous occasion in 2020 when the PDUFA (prescription drug user fee act) approval was due, the company's market capitalisation rose to $3.1bn, which, based on current issuance, implies a price of $4.20. (Note: the previous run occurred during a period of extremely low interest rates).
Given recent evidence provides "unequivocal" evidence of improvement in long-term survival rates in the sample population, and given previously the FDA's Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee voted overwhelmingly in favour of approval, the broker appears to be expecting a positive result.
Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $2 from $1.65.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.04 Difference: $0.955
If MSB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 18.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.79.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.47.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPH PUSHPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED
Software & Services – Overnight Price: $1.19
Jarden rates ((PPH)) as Neutral (3) –
In October 2022, the board of Pushpay Holdings recommended the cash takeover offer of NZ$1.34 per share by Sixth Sense and BGH Capital subject to a higher bid or the independent adviser's valuation.
A valuation range of NZ$1.33 to NZ$1.53 per Pushpay Holdings share was announced on February 3.
Recent guidance by the company lessens the likelihood of any adverse material change (a clause in the takeover document) scuppering the deal, suggests the analyst.
A shareholder vote is set for Friday March 3, with payment to shareholders, assuming all other conditions are met, likely to occur between 28 March and 11 April.
The broker's Neutral rating and NZ$1.34 target are maintained.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Current Price is $1.19. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.19.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.35.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PSI PSC INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED
Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.76
Bell Potter rates ((PSI)) as Buy (1) –
A new analyst at Bell Potter revisits the investment thesis for PSC Insurance, which operates in a defensive sector where there are few such high-growth and mid-sized players.
The broker feels PSC, with a high organic growth rate, would be an attractive target for one of the larger international players looking for growth opportunities.
The analyst sets a $6.07 price target, which makes no allowance for future acquisitions. The company has made 36 acquisitions since 2017 with an aggregate outlay of -$501m. Buy.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $6.07 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $1.31
If PSI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.92.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.06.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RGN REGION GROUP
REITs – Overnight Price: $2.59
Jarden rates ((RGN)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –
Despite a downgrade of its rating to Overweight from Buy, Jarden stresses the structural story for Region Group of steady organic growth and accretive acquisitions remains intact. It's felt the trust still offers one of the better risk-reward ratios among passive REITs.
This view follows 1H results, where guidance for funds from operations (FFO) was maintained and guidance for adjusted-FFO was slightly upgraded, in a tough economic backdrop, points out the broker.
The analyst appreciates transparency by management around the impact of rising interest rates upon debt and valuations. The broker adopts a 6% cap rate assumption and agrees with the company cap rates will expand further.
The target falls to $3.05 from $3.15 largely as a result of a higher cost of capital assumption applied by Jarden across the sector.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.46
If RGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.24.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -62.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.80.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SHL SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED
Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $33.20
Goldman Sachs rates ((SHL)) as Sell (5) –
The Pathology industry has high fixed cost leverage, and a slow recovery in base business post-covid presents a headwind for margins, explains Goldman Sachs.
The broker's earnings forecasts (EBIT) for Sonic Healthcare are reduced by -5.0-2.0%, over FY23-25, driving profit revisions of -8.0-1.0%.
While there is some indication of market share gains for the company, the analyst feels it will be insufficient to offset the
headwinds for market volumes.
Goldman Sachs target falls by -9% to $29. Sell.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $33.20 Difference: minus $4.2 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.56, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.59.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.2, implying annual growth of -50.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 143.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.22.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.9, implying annual growth of -2.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SSM SERVICE STREAM LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.59
Canaccord Genuity rates ((SSM)) as Buy (1) –
Upon first assessment of a trading update by Service Stream, guidance for 1H underlying earnings (EBITDA) was slightly better than Canaccord Genuity had expected.
The broker points out the market was concerned prior to the update regarding a $5m onerous contract provision in FY22 results. It's now been determined a further -$20m in costs will be incurred to finalise the relevant utility project in Queensland.
Before adjusting forecasts, the analyst was seeking further detail from management via an investor call.
Target $1.10. Buy.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.505
If SSM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting upside of 28.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.92.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.
Forecast for FY24:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.44.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.7, implying annual growth of 67.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUN SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED
Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.80
Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs concludes the 1H23 earnings miss for Suncorp Group was a result of lower than expected earnings from general insurance due to margin compression.
The bank result was a beat, highlights the broker, and overall margins for the total insurance group were better as result of cost controls and investment income.
Management retained FY23 guidance of 10%-12% and the broker slighly raises earnings forecasts for the FY23.
A Buy rating is retained and the target is raised to $14.47 from $13.38.
This report was published on February 10, 2023.
Target price is $14.47 Current Price is $12.80 Difference: $1.67
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 13.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.31.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of 87.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.19.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.0, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –
Jarden observes that Suncorp Group was able to sustain margins in the 1H23, compared to Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), through cost controls and better yields.
Actual net profits reported were slightly below the broker's forecasts and consensus, due to higher catastrophe bond costs, but underlining earnings were strong.
Jarden adjusts earnings forecasts by -0.4% and 0.5% for FY23 and FY24, respectively.
The target is lifted to $13.90 from $13.50 and the Buy rating is retained.
This report was published on February 9, 2023.
Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $12.80 Difference: $1.1
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.50, suggesting upside of 13.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 98.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.02.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.9, implying annual growth of 87.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.70 cents and EPS of 94.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.0, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TAH TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Gaming – Overnight Price: $1.03
Jarden rates ((TAH)) as Overweight (2) –
Key risks for Tabcorp Holdings include the success of the new betting app, the level of competition and potential for softer consumer discretionary spend.
The outcome for the renewal of the company's Victorian wagering licence is another, and after probability weighting the various valuation outcomes, the broker can see around 12.7cps net present value upside from a renewal.
Jarden maintains its Overweight rating and raises its target to $1.23 from $1.11.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $1.23 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.2
If TAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.6, implying annual growth of -98.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.75.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 13.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $14.15
Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Underweight (4) –
Transurban Group's 1H results were broadly in line with consensus expectations.
Jarden was positively surprised by a stable average cost of debt and reduces its interest cost assumptions over the three year period FY23 to FY25. As a result, FY23-25 free cash and dividend forecasts are revised higher by 5.6%, 11.3% and 16.8%, respectively.
The target rises to $12.40 from $12.00 though the Underweight rating remains due to the potential risk of an equity raise (likely exceeding $1bn) and the departure of CEO Scott Charlton by the end of 2023.
This report was published on February 8, 2023.
Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $14.15 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.06, suggesting downside of -0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 56.80 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 117.92.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.1, implying annual growth of 3196.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 66.8.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.70 cents and EPS of 24.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.23.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 35.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.
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