Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 31, 2023

This story features ABACUS GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABG

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABG   AIA   APA   APE   APX   AVG   AX1   CAJ (2)   CDP   CGC   CTD   DMP   FMG   GOR   IDX (2)   IFL   IPG   MPL   NXT (2)   PLS   PPE   PPT   PTM   QUB   REG   SGP   SKT   TRS   UNI   WES  

ABG    ABACUS GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.19

Moelis rates ((ABG)) as Buy (1) –

Abacus Group is the former ((ABP)) without the storage assets that have now been separately listed as Abacus Storage King ((ASK)). What's left are $1.7bn of office and $466m of retail (4 assets), Moelis explains.

Operationally, the broker finds Abacus Group has continued to perform solidly and some 20% of income is still derived from the storage assets.

Moelis sees this as providing some diversification from challenges within the office sector. Upon further analysing the FY23 update, the broker is also of the opinion Abacus Group has retained an excess in costs, which means it has been under-earning versus other REITs.

The broker observes mid-cap office peers generally are offering deep value. Growthpoints Properties Australia ((GOZ)) is the broker's preferred exposure.

Target $1.46. Buy.

This report was published on August 28, 2023.

Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.275
If ABG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.47.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.23

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Auckland International Airport's FY23 earnings were ahead of Jarden's estimates. The dividend has been reinstated at NZ4c, reflecting a pay-out of 74% of second half underlying net profit.

Jarden observes a recent move to a lower pay-out range reflects a significant lift in planned capital expenditure. In parallel with the lift to investment, material increases have also been announced in aeronautical charges.

The broker transfers coverage to another analyst and upgrades to Neutral from Underweight. Target is raised to NZ$7.87 from NZ$7.65.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Current Price is $7.23. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.85, suggesting upside of 8.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.42 cents and EPS of 16.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.54 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA    APA GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.90

Jarden rates ((APA)) as Overweight (2) –

APA Group's underlying earnings in FY23 were marginally lower than expected. Jarden suspects the market will take some time to become comfortable with the acquisition of Alinta Energy's Pilbara gas and electricity assets.

Jarden observes the transaction is theoretically accretive to distributions and also provides the company with an electricity-heightened investment portfolio and a path to diversify away from gas.

The timing of the transaction combined with the dilution from the equity raising has affected FY24 guidance and this came in below estimates at $0.56 per security. Overweight rating retained. Target is reduced to $10.15 from $10.95.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $10.15 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $1.25
If APA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.70, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.8, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 58.50 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $15.79

Jarden rates ((APE)) as Overweight (2) –

First half results were weaker than expected. Despite lowering 2023 estimates for EPS by -5% Jarden assesses the revenue outlook is robust and margins under control.

Eagers Automotive has reiterated its target of $9.5-10bn in 2024 revenue, supported by new car sales and recent acquisitions. Jarden lifts 2023 estimates by 2.1% and reiterates an Overweight rating. Target rises to $15.80 from $15.56.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $15.79 Difference: $0.01
If APE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.88, suggesting downside of -5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 64.50 cents and EPS of 107.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.4, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.10 cents and EPS of 108.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of -8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $1.59

Wilsons rates ((APX)) as Market Weight (3) –

Second half revenue guidance by management at Appen implies to Wilsons consensus forecasts will be missed by around -10%. It's felt the arrival of generative AI has customers re-evaluating overall AI strateges, which is negatively impacting Appen’s core business.

First half revenue fell by -24% compared to the previous corresponding period, with management guiding to a 2H “closer to 1H2
revenue” and noting ”Generative AI potential does not yet offset market headwinds”.

Along with other factors, the company's concentrated customer base doesn't allow management to retain line-of-sight over its forecasts, note the analysts.

The target falls by -37% to $1.61. Market Weight.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.02
If APX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 40.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -41.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -17.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVG    AUSTRALIAN VINTAGE LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $0.41

Moelis rates ((AVG)) as Buy (1) –

Australian Vintage has managed to offset volume decline in commercial wine mostly via minor price increases plus growth in the premium and innovative drink ranges, observes Moelis.

As a result, FY23 revenue proved a minor "beat" by not going backwards. The gross margin still fell more than expected by the broker with shipping and energy costs to blame.

Moelis has taken a more conservative view on the margins, and this leads to reduced forecasts. The broker highlights shipping costs are starting to ease suggesting the gross margin should improve in FY24.

The shares are seen as undervalued. Target falls to 50c from 60c. Buy.

This report was published on August 28, 2023.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.095
If AVG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.66.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.44.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $2.12

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 earnings from Accent Group were in line with estimates and Jarden notes cash flow is strong. Cost control was the highlight of the year with employee costs up 15% in the second half, versus 39% in the first, and marketing costs down -9% year-on-year.

The outlook for costs will be a key focus in FY24 with the broker assuming a similar run rate into the first half against a slowing rate of sales growth. Forecasts are cut materially to reflect growing macro headwinds with pressure likely on the EBIT margin.

Jarden retains a Neutral rating, transferring coverage to another analyst, and reduces the target to $2.30 from $2.50.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.18
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 12.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of -12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.2, implying annual growth of 22.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAJ    CAPITOL HEALTH LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.22

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAJ)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Capitol Health's FY23 result disappointed Goldman Sachs forecasts, a radiologist shortage bumping up costs, which outpaced an early volume recovery.

The broker believes costs have settled structurally higher at 64% of sales, compared with the historical average of 60%, and the company cuts its long-term operating margin targets of 23% to 24% (which had formed a strong part of the rationale for the broker's original Buy thesis).

Goldman Sachs observes the company is well within covenants with a funding capacity of $82m. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price falls -16% to 26c form 31c.

This report was published on August 30, 2023.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.04
If CAJ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 44.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CAJ)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 results from Capitol Health were slightly ahead of the pre-released range in terms of revenue and EBITDA. Jarden observes the August trading update was positive although tougher comparables lay ahead.

The business is benefiting from additional MRI services/clinics with increased out-of-pocket expenditure as the bulk billing revenue mix dropped to 73% in the second half, from 77%.

Jarden expects gross profit headwinds will persist and retains a Neutral rating. Target edges down to $0.26 from $0.28.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.04
If CAJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 44.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.80 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.3, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDP    CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.11

Moelis rates ((CDP)) as Buy (1) –

Carindale Property Trust's FY23 had key financial metrics in line with Moelis' forecasts. Management expects to distribute 27.10c in FY24.

The REIT's NTA decreased to $6.98, down -4.0% from the $7.25 in June last year, the broker notes. All in all, Moelis lauds the trust's quality and resilience.

Only minor amendments have been made to forecasts. Buy. Target moves to $6.22 from $6.26.

This report was published on August 28, 2023.

Target price is $6.22 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $2.11
If CDP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 34.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.88.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGC    COSTA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.91

Jarden rates ((CGC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden was disappointed with Costa Group's update as first half earnings are said to be -7% lower than expected, adversely affected by citrus issues and weaker tomato pricing. The outcome is a material downgrade to 2023 EBITDA. The company will report its first half results on August 31.

The main issue is the indicative non-binding offer of $3.50 a share by Paine. The broker previously thought the offer had room to increase but, given recent events, the likelihood is now much lower. Overweight rating retained. Target rises to $3.11 from $2.90.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $3.11 Current Price is $2.91 Difference: $0.2
If CGC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 60.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 35.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD    CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $18.91

Jarden rates ((CTD)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden found the in-line FY23 results from Corporate Travel Management strong as the business benefits from re-opening and return of corporate travel. Weak cash conversion was explained by higher UK government activity on invoice terms.

Europe stood out in terms of regions while US and Australasian growth moderated throughout the second half. Jarden considers the stock valuation undemanding and FY24 guidance conservative. Buy rating retained. Target edges down to $23.00 from $23.50.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $18.91 Difference: $4.09
If CTD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.40, suggesting upside of 23.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 104.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.4, implying annual growth of 102.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 117.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.4, implying annual growth of 20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $53.90

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

Domino's Pizza Enterprises posted a FY23 result that was below expectations. What was important, Jarden asserts, is that it put concerns over the balance sheet to rest.

Cash flow conversion was more than 100% which, coupled with a fully underwritten dividend reinvestment plan and a stronger trading update, means the company should be well within its covenants for FY24.

There is also increased confidence regarding cost reductions. Earnings still face multiple headwinds with Asia being particularly soft and taking time to recover. Overweight retained. Target is reduced to $65 from $68.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $53.90 Difference: $11.1
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $54.33, suggesting upside of 0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 173.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.7, implying annual growth of 283.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 136.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 222.00 cents and EPS of 229.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.5, implying annual growth of 21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $21.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Following FY23 results for Fortescue Metals, Goldman Sachs lowers its FY24-26 EPS forecasts by -12%, -10% and -9%, respectively,  on higher Fortescue Energy costs, expensed exploration and Iron Bridge costs.

Underlying earnings for the period were only around -1% shy of the analysts' forecast. However, profit was a -16% miss due to a -US$726m post-tax write down of the Iron Bridge asset mostly on higher opex and an increase in the project’s discount rate.

The biggest surprise for the broker was the sudden departure of the Fortescue Metals CEO Fiona Hick, after only five months in the role.

The price target falls to $13.80 from $14.50. Sell. 

Goldman Sachs assumes around US$6bn of new debt and reduces its dividend payout ratio forecast to around 50% from FY24 onwards, from the current 65%. The gross gearing estimate is also increased to more than 30% by FY27.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: minus $7.62 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.14, suggesting downside of -24.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.90 cents and EPS of 148.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.93 cents and EPS of 106.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of -18.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.77

Goldman Sachs rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

First half underlying earnings (EBITDA) fell only -1% short of the consensus forecast on higher operating costs, while free cash flow (FCF) generation of $89m was in line with Goldman Sachs forecast.

FY23 guidance is unchanged from July. Management achieved a realised price of $2,858/oz over the 1H, up 16% year-on-year, with no hedge position taken during the half.

A fully franked interim dividend of 1.2cps was declared, in line with the forecast by Goldman Sachs.

The Buy rating and $1.85 target are unchanged.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.08
If GOR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.06, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IDX    INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $3.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((IDX)) as Buy (1) –

An in-line FY23 result aside, Goldman Sachs was impressed by signals of a recovery provided by 2H Australian organic revenue growth of 10.3% due to both increasing volumes and price/mix tailwinds.

While labour/cost pressures persist, a 2H margin improvement of 170bps to 19.3% also speaks to inherent margin leverage, suggest the analysts. Management expects margins to improve over FY24 and reaffirmed its intention to return to mid-20's margins by FY26.

Goldman Sachs currently sees an attractive entry point for Integral Diagnostics shares based on the recovering margins and potential M&A upside, and retains its Buy rating. The target slips by -3% to $3.60.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.56
If IDX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((IDX)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Following Integral Diagnostics' FY23 results, Wilsons upgrades its rating to Overweight from Market Weight on increasing confidence (based on resilient revenues) earnings (EBITDA) margins can move up to 23% over the FY26 forecast period.

Management has set a greater target of mid-25%'s over the same time span. There was a 160bps earnings margin improvement in 2H compared to the 1H.

A final dividend of 3.5cps was declared.

The broker believes the tide is turning for the company and the margin recovery supports earnings upgrades of 3-6%. The target rises to $3.43 from $2.63.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $3.43 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.39
If IDX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL    INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.56

Jarden rates ((IFL)) as Overweight (2) –

Insignia Financial delivered an FY23 result that was in line with expectations. As platform fee pressure is likely to lift in FY24, underlying net profit now appears relatively stagnant, Jarden asserts.

Given the risks, the broker only factors in 50% of cost reduction targets to FY26. Overweight retained. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $3.85.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.59
If IFL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 21.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.6, implying annual growth of 2268.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 31.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPG    IPD GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $4.42

Moelis rates ((IPG)) as Buy (1) –

IPD Group's FY23 result largely met Moelis forecasts, thanks to strong earnings (up 41%) and revenue (up 27%) growth, mostly organic.

The broker observes strong operating leverage and an increase in inventory and net working capital to match growth.

No specific FY24 guidance was provided, but management did say it was prioritising its double-digit organic growth strategy.

The company announced a post-balance-date purchase of EX Engineering for -$10.2m in July (-$9.2m cash and $1m scrip).

EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY24 and FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $5.27 from $5.12.

This report was published on August 27, 2023.

Target price is $5.27 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.85
If IPG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.30.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 25.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.13.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.56

Jarden rates ((MPL)) as Overweight (2) –

FY23 results showed strong operating momentum has continued across the key health insurance division with net profit ahead of Jarden's estimates.

The broker expects inflation pressures to edge higher in FY24 although health insurance operating earnings should lift as policy growth recovers post the cyber incident.

With the underlying investment yield set to lift towards the lower end of Medibank Private's target, the broker envisages 4-6% upside to consensus estimates for EPS over FY24-25. Overweight retained. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.70.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.24
If MPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of 1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXT    NEXTDC LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $13.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((NXT)) as Buy (1) –

In the wake of NextDC's in-line FY23 result, Goldman Sachs lowers its FY24-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -8-12% on revenue mix changes, a significant step-up in investment and the timing of opex versus revenue for new data centres.

FY24 guidance was softer than the analysts expected, with revenues and earnings falling by -2% and -9%, respectively, on higher Australian opex.

Management anticipates FY24 will be another record year with its more than 39MW guidance implying to the broker another contract of circa 20MW is imminent. It's felt a further FY24 kicker may arise from AI-led growth in the second half.

Due to NextDC's upfront AI investment, Goldman Sachs triples its assumed multiple, though lower earnings forecasts result in a new target of $15.80, down from $16.80. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: $2.47
If NXT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.72, suggesting upside of 10.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 133.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 95.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((NXT)) as Overweight (1) –

Investors with a eye on the future should anticiapte a robust outcome for NextDC, suggests Wilsons, despite softer FY24 guidance which upset the share price after the release of in-line FY23 results.

Management expects to spend -$875m (the midpoint of FY24 guidance) on capex, given the business has added added around 60MWs of contracted utilisation, or 41% of all contracted utilisation since it was founded in 2010, explains the broker.

Wilsons expects the company's Cloud Services business will be the key driver of growth, with AI demand proving incremental and additive over time.

The Overweight rating is unchanged, while the target rises to $15.19 from $13.43.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $15.19 Current Price is $13.33 Difference: $1.86
If NXT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.72, suggesting upside of 10.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 125.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 180.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $4.64

Goldman Sachs rates ((PLS)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 earnings and profit were broadly in line with forecasts by Goldman Sachs, while FY24 production guidance for 660-690kt fell short of the consensus expectation on greater management caution around the P680 ramp-up.

FY24 capex guidance of -$875-975m was well above forecasts by the analysts and consensus for -$670m and -$618m, respectively.

The target falls to $4.60 from $5.00. While the broker points out spot prices support strong free cash flow (FCF) yields in excess of planned incremental capex spend, near-term FCF is expected to decline on lithium prices and an increasing growth spend.

The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 29, 2023.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 54.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of -1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPE    PEOPLEIN LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $2.07

Moelis rates ((PPE)) as Buy (1) –

PeopleIN's FY23 result missed guidance by -4% due to a weak second half punctuated by organic weakness in tech and healthcare, reports Moelis.

The broker expects healthcare to recover in FY24 but for this to be offset by weakness in tech, resulting in flat growth.

Moelis believes the result has already been captured in the share price.

Buy rating and $3.30 target price retained. 

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $1.23
If PPE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 29.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.11.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 30.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.85.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $21.40

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Perpetual's FY23 underlying earnings fell short of estimates yet Jarden observes the benefits of acquisitions continue to earn through, supported by synergies.

A higher asset management cost-to-income ratio at 77-78% by FY25-26 compares with global peers at 65% and suggests to the broker there is scope for further cost reductions from the global business.

Jarden reiterates an Overweight rating and reduces the target to $28.35 from $31.05.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $28.35 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $6.95
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.94, suggesting upside of 35.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.80 cents and EPS of 193.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of 210.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 196.00 cents and EPS of 227.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 249.0, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 173.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PTM    PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.52

Goldman Sachs rates ((PTM)) as Sell (5) –

Platinum Asset Management's FY23 underlying profit of $76.5m came in short of forecasts by Goldman Sachs and consensus for $79.2m and $79.4m, respectively. Ex other income (which includes gains and losses), the result was in line, highlight the analysts.

Management noted subdued retail demand in FY23, which drove lower gross inflows, and announced a long standing institutional client will redeem -$0.65bn in August, which the broker considers material.

A 2H dividend of 7cps was declared. Andrew Clifford will stay as Co-CIO but step aside as CEO.

Goldman Sachs remains with its Sell rating and sets a $1.50 target.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.9, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB    QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.09

Jarden rates ((QUB)) as Overweight (2) –

FY23 net profit was in line and Jarden notes a solid performance in the second half against a declining industry volume backdrop. Pressure continues from sustained cost inflation and inefficiencies within the operating division.

Consistent with market concerns, the broker highlights a large step up in net interest costs will occur in FY24 yet Qube Holdings still expects growth in FY24, ahead of the record performance over the last year or so.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating and unchanged $3.15 target.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.06
If QUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 10.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 37.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REG    REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $2.51

Moelis rates ((REG)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis highlights the increase in average occupancy, which is seen as a positive omen for the future for Regis Healthcare. Management has flagged the aged care provider is "primed for growth" in FY24 and beyond.

The broker highlights management's confidence is underpinned by rising occupancy and government funding. The latter is now more than covering the incremental costs faced by the business in meeting minutes of care requirements.

A strong balance sheet is assisting management with its intention of making accretive acquisitions, as well as investing in selective greenfield developments.

Buy. Target price has lifted to $3 from $2.64.

This report was published on August 28, 2023.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.49
If REG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.61.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.68.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP    STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.23

Jarden rates ((SGP)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden observes, in the wake of the FY23 results, that residential is the key driver for sentiment regarding Stockland and the settlement targets raise some questions.

Sales of less than 4000 lots, annualised, are tracking well below objectives which makes the broker nervous about the ambitious settlement target, although the medium-term outlook remains attractive.

A key catalyst should be more visibility on a sustainable earnings growth profile and the broker retains an Underweight rating. Target rises to $4.15 from $3.80.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.23 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.9, implying annual growth of 67.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.40 cents and EPS of 34.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.4, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKT    SKY NETWORK TELEVISION LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $2.27

Jarden rates ((SKT)) as Overweight (2) –

The FY23 result from SKY Network Television was in line with expectations. The midpoint of FY24 EBITDA guidance of NZ$150-165m has also met Jarden's forecasts. The broker observes the rate of decline in SkyBox customers continues to moderate.

The company provided directional guidance for 3-4% growth in revenue to FY26 and achieving a EBITDA margin of 21-23% on a reduction in programming costs to 47-49%.

Putting low-quality broadband revenue aside, Jarden finds this guidance ambitious. The key risk is whether the company can prevent ARPU dilution in Skybox to streaming, and whether regular price increases are achievable.

Overweight retained. Target rises to NZ$2.93 from NZ$2.80.

This report was published on August 24, 2023.

Current Price is $2.27. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.79 cents and EPS of 33.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.82.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.47 cents and EPS of 32.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.95.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRS    REJECT SHOP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $5.50

Jarden rates ((TRS)) as Buy (1) –

FY23 results from Reject Shop revealed the benefits of appealing to value-conscious customers and were ahead of Jarden's forecasts. The big surprise was the reinstatement of the dividend and reloading the buyback.

FY24 has started strongly with same-store sales growth of 4.4% and, despite rising costs, the broker believes the EBIT margin should expand. Transferring coverage to another analyst, the broker retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $7.00 from $9.30.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.5
If TRS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 51.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of 18.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $3.80

Jarden rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (2) –

Universal Store's FY23 results were in line with the prior announcement in May. There were few surprises and Jarden trims forecasts by -2-4%, noting sales slowed through the second half and like-for-like sales turned negative.

While sales are weak, the broker points out the deterioration has not accelerated into FY24 and the company remains disciplined regarding promotional activity. Cost growth of 13% is expected and EBIT margins are forecast to fall by -50 basis points.

The outcome is assessed as increasingly priced into the stock and an Overweight rating is retained. Target is raised to $4.70 from $4.50.

This report was published on August 25, 2023.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: $0.9
If UNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.75, suggesting downside of -1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 36.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of -3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 44.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of 20.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $53.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Wesfarmers's FY23 result pleased Goldman Sachs, the broker observing the drivers of its Sell thesis had largely passed.

In particular, the broker observes signs of a recovery for Bunnings, thanks to support for house prices and the company's enterprise bargaining agreement which locked in below minimum wage increases over three years – outperforming peers. Kmart was also gaining share in the value market, observes the broker.

Goldman Sachs is less positive in its spodumene and lithium hydroxide price forecasting for the Kidman project, sitting well below consensus, expecting spodumene sales volumes to double in FY27 as mining capacity ramps up.

The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target price rises to $49.80 from $44.90.

This report was published on August 27, 2023.

Target price is $49.80 Current Price is $53.25 Difference: minus $3.45 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $49.94, suggesting downside of -6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 191.00 cents and EPS of 204.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.3, implying annual growth of 1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 191.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 210.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.7, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 212.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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