Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 30, 2023

This story features APPEN LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APX   ARU   BSL   DOW   HSN   KGN   LOV   MPL   NWL   PPS (2)   SGM   STO (2)   WEB (3)  

APX    APPEN LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $0.65

Wilsons rates ((APX)) as Market Weight (3) –

Appen has announced a $30m underwritten equity raise, comprising $23.6m through a one for 3.65 pro-rata accelerated non-renouncable entitlement offer and $6.4m placement at a -42% discount to the previous close of 95c and a -70% discount to its $60m raise in May.

Combined the two placement represent 70% of shares on issue observes Wilsons.

The broker says the extra capital, designed to fund the company through to profitability, should help allay short-term concerns about the company's balance sheet but observes the operating environment remains tough.

The broker's Market Weight rating and $1.61 target price are under review.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $1.61 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.965
If APX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.31, suggesting upside of 103.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 40.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -40.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -16.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARU    ARAFURA RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARU)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Arafura Rare Earths has completed early works construction at its Nolans rare earth project, and Canaccord Genuity is anticipating a significant slowing in cash burn over the next two quarters are the company focuses on finalising project development funding.

The company is now anticipating funding will be finalised in the March quarter, a delay Canaccord Genuity has described as unfortunate. Development capital expenditure for Nolans currently totals $1.7bn, up 6% from its November 2022 estimate. 

The Speculative Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 50 cents from 75 cents.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.275
If ARU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.50.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $20.31

Goldman Sachs rates ((BSL)) as Buy (1) –

A positive update from BlueScope Steel at its recent AGM, with the company anticipating first half earnings will land towards the top end of the guidance range given a recent increase in US hot rolled coal prices.

Goldman Sachs feels there is further upside risk to earnings, and that the company may exceed the top end of guidance. The broker considers any share price weakness a buying opportunity. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $23.70 from $21.60.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $20.31 Difference: $3.39
If BSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.96, suggesting downside of -6.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 234.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 174.8, implying annual growth of -19.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 212.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.9, implying annual growth of 12.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DOW    DOWNER EDI LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $4.09

Goldman Sachs rates ((DOW)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a trading update from Downer EDI at its recent AGM, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its outlook for the company to account for revised revenue, margin and interest expense forecasts.

The broker's net profit forecasts decline -4%, -4% and 0% through to FY26. While Goldman Sachs is cautious on the company near-term, its feels Downer offers a defensive profile and long-term exposure to decarbonisation tailwinds.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.20 from $4.10.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.11
If DOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 16.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.0, implying annual growth of 30.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HSN    HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $5.40

Goldman Sachs rates ((HSN)) as Neutral (3) –

At the Hansen Technologies' AGM, management noted solid FY24 progress for customer wins, extensions and upgrades. Guidance for organic revenue growth and the underlying earnings (EBITDA) margin was reiterated.

The trading update suggests to Goldman Sachs the company is tracking ahead (so far in FY24) of its 5-7% organic revenue growth guidance, although constant currency performance is in line.

The Neutral rating and $5.75 target are unchanged.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.40 Difference: $0.35
If HSN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.50, suggesting upside of 20.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.5, implying annual growth of 25.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $5.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KGN)) as Buy (1) –

Kogan.com has returned to sales growth for the first time in 22 months during October, reporting 2% gross sales growth over the month. The result brings sales growth to date to -4%, a beat on Canaccord Genuity's expected -10% decline.

The retailer delivered gross profit of $14m over the month, up 49% year-on-year. Canaccord Genuity expects the trading environment will remain challenging, but that FY24 earnings will benefit from ongoing momentum.

The Buy rating and target price of $6.50 are retained.

This report was published on November 29, 2023.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $1.29
If KGN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 27.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 149.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $18.72

Wilsons rates ((LOV)) as Overweight (1) –

Lovisa Holdings's AGM trading update for the first 20 weeks of the December half missed Wilsons' forecast, but a sharp year-on-year rise in sales suggests recent store additions appear to be doing well.

Net store openings proved a miss but this does not affect the broker's near and mid-term target.

EPS forecasts falls for FY24 and FY25.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to $22.90 from $23.60 on November 8.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $18.72 Difference: $4.18
If LOV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.99, suggesting upside of 22.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.10 cents and EPS of 81.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.0, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 82.40 cents and EPS of 105.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.6, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((MPL)) as Neutral (3) –

Policyholder growth is tracking in line with expectations, says Medibank Private, but resident growth run-rate is soft. The company continues to intend to return permanent net savings back to customers.

Goldman Sachs says claims activity remains within management margins, with claims per policyholder inflation holding steady at 2.6%, but sees risk in potential hospital contracting. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $3.56 are retained.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: $0.14
If MPL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $14.75

Wilsons rates ((NWL)) as Overweight (1) –

Netwealth Group's AGM trading update suggest the December quarter kicked off to a good start, with net flows accelerating on the September quarter, outpacing Wilsons' expectations.

However, peers have reported weaker trading activity and lower implied cash interest revenue due to lower cash holdings, so Wilsons isn't counting its chickens just yet.

Overweight rating retained. Target price is steady at $15.37.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $15.37 Current Price is $14.75 Difference: $0.62
If NWL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting downside of -1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.60 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 23.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.90 cents and EPS of 42.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.8, implying annual growth of 20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPS    PRAEMIUM LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.43

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PPS)) as Buy (1) –

Praemium has issues a material downgrade to its first half earnings guidance, now expecting to deliver earnings -20% lower than the first half of FY23. Canaccord Genuity has lowered its first half forecast to $9.1m from $12.4m, and full year forecast to $20.9m from $26.5m.

A number of drivers contributed to the decline, including lower average platform revenue margins and the impact of strategic investment, with investment targeting a longer-term earnings increase.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 71 cents from $1.20.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.28
If PPS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.75.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Wilsons rates ((PPS)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Praemium has announced a sharp rise in operating costs due to strong reinvestment in systems, people and risk as a new investment team on-boards, observes Wilsons.

The broker expects price increase will be in order but given challenges on the high net worth front and the now likely to delay in earnings recovery at a time when competition is intensifying, pulls in its horns.

EPS forecasts fall sharply across FY24 and FY25.

Rating is reduced to Market Weight from Overweight. Target falls to 40c from 86c.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If PPS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.89.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $13.44

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Following up on the announced operational review at FY23 results, Sims now intends to proceed with a full strategic review of its UK Metals business.

Jarden considers this a positive development, as long as management can redeploy capital more productively elsewhere.

Management has received expressions of interest from potential buyers for the UK Metals business, and will contemplate strategic partnerships, co-investment or divestment.

The Neutral rating and $14.66 target are unchanged.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $14.66 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: $1.22
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.88, suggesting downside of -4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.70 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.6, implying annual growth of -55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.30 cents and EPS of 97.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.9, implying annual growth of 152.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $6.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((STO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs revises down its forecasts for Santos following the company's investor day.

Production guidance was a miss on the broker's forecasts due to a faster than expected fall in WA gas production.

The broker appreciates the detail in the update, the company breaking down each asset.

The broker expects Pikka to be a major area of company focus over the next two years and believes it will be a strong contributor to earning from 2026 onward.

Meanwhile, Barossa regulatory uncertainty continues and the broker suspects delays in regulatory approval could result in a decline in capital expenditure over 2023 and 2024 but fears delays could eventually result in costs overruns if approval is granted.

EPS forecasts tick up. FY25 divend forecasts fall. 

Buy rating retained. Target price falls -3% to $8.55.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $6.94 Difference: $1.61
If STO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting upside of 35.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.67 cents and EPS of 70.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.18 cents and EPS of 79.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.9, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Neutral (3) –

While 2024 production guidance for 84-90mmboe issued at the Santos investor day looks in line with consensus forecasts, Jarden considers negative revisions are likely, once adjustments are made for the upcoming PNG LNG sell-down.

Uncertainty over Barossa remains the biggest drag on the broker's investment thesis, and management expressed frustration with the current Environmental Plan consultation process.

The target slips to $7.85 from $7.95, while the Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $6.94 Difference: $0.91
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.38, suggesting upside of 35.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 69.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.66 cents and EPS of 70.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.9, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEBJET LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $6.66

Goldman Sachs rates ((WEB)) as Buy (1) –

Webjet's September-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced Goldman Sachs but FY24 guidance disappointed, albeit being in line with consensus.

The earnings beat was driven by faster-than-expected growth in North America and Australia Pacific, which outpaced softness in Europe and Middle East and Africa.

Management advised of more of the same in the second, suggesting strong time to value but a weaker revenue margin, says the broker, although the company advises that investment for scaled growth is approaching conclusion, suggesting stable margins at the earnings level.

Goldman Sachs observes China's recovery is coming on, suggesting upside in FY24 and FY25.

The company closed the half with net cash of $392m, leaving room for capital management.

Buy rating retained. Target price is $8.10.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $1.44
If WEB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 26.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 723.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((WEB)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Jarden raises its target for Webjet to $8.80 from $8.15 and upgrades to Buy from Overweight after 1H earnings (EBITDA) beat consensus by 4% and FY24 guidance exceeded market expectations by around 2%.

The broker highlights a standout performance by WebBeds, and feels this B2B Platform business should trade at a higher multiple. Management reiterated its $10bn total transaction value (TTV) target for WebBeds, and talked to $4bn in the near-term. 

Prior to the strategy day in March, the analysts see various positive catalysts including an acceleration of WebBeds, via purchasing of inventory, and an easing in geopolitical tensions.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $2.14
If WEB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 26.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 723.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 38.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Webjet's September-half result outpaced consensus and Wilsons' forecasts due to a big beat from WebBeds, which recorded bookings 50% above those of pre-covid days.

FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance represented a beat on consensus and the broker observes the company has a strong runway ahead as international travel volumes recover.

Overweight rating retained. Target prices to $9.22 from $9.02.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $9.22 Current Price is $6.66 Difference: $2.56
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.44, suggesting upside of 26.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 723.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 40.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 25.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms